Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Also, AJ still = uncoverable. 16 targets, 12 receptions.
Every team knows what's coming, but none of them can stop it.
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Is Carson Palmer underrated? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter GroveDiesel
- Start date
Every team knows what's coming, but none of them can stop it.
Tau837
Footballguy
I don't disagree, but i wouldn't draw too many conclusions from performing against the Chargers DBs.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
I agree with that, but I also think that Houston doesn't want to wear down Foster like they have in the past.They are planning for the playoffs. I also like Houstons pass blocking a lot better.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Schaub is certainly a good value QB for this season as well. Both have excellent weapons to work with.
Gianmarco and others made some really good posts about Schaub in another thread around here somewhere.
Well, Tate wasn't healthy last year. This year they've got them both. They can keep Arian fresh without having to pass the ball. Houston will run 50% of the time if they can. Kubiak can put together a productive passing attack when the situation forces him to, but he wants to win by running the ball. He sits on 10 points leads in the 3rd quarter. As an Andre Johnson fan, it's tough to watch.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
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It's also worth noting that if Palmer throws the ball 40 times a game that would be 640 attempts. I suspect both numbers (att & sacks) will decrease. If they don't, and he survives 64 sacks, 640 attempts probably nets him a top 5 QB finish.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
Since we are doing math problems, consider that on Carson's 23rd sack of the season last year, came early in week 15. He got his ribs broken on that sack and ended up on IR. Do the math on 4 sacks per game, and you can surmise one the of 49ers LB's will put him out of his misery in week 6.It's also worth noting that if Palmer throws the ball 40 times a game that would be 640 attempts. I suspect both numbers (att & sacks) will decrease. If they don't, and he survives 64 sacks, 640 attempts probably nets him a top 5 QB finish.
Faulty logic. So if a guy tears his ACL the first time he gets tackled we should assume he'll get injured every time he is tackled?Since we are doing math problems, consider that on Carson's 23rd sack of the season last year, came early in week 15. He got his ribs broken on that sack and ended up on IR. Do the math on 4 sacks per game, and you can surmise one the of 49ers LB's will put him out of his misery in week 6.It's also worth noting that if Palmer throws the ball 40 times a game that would be 640 attempts. I suspect both numbers (att & sacks) will decrease. If they don't, and he survives 64 sacks, 640 attempts probably nets him a top 5 QB finish.
He was once sacked 36 times in a season and did not miss time, so how do you extrapolate that? Hint: you don't. This is nonsense.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
HA! not faulty logic at all. I'm sure in his younger days, Carson could run a 4.7 forty too. He's no spring chicken anymore, and can't elude the rush like he used to. I give him credit for getting the ball out of his hands quick, but anyone dismissing the 4 sack game to start things in the new black and blue division of the NFC West is sipping the spiked kool aid hard. I was joking when I said he'd go down in week 6, no one can predict injury. All I'm saying is that it's only a matter of time.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Just to be clear, pro rating anything based off of one game is faulty logic.FF Ninja said:Faulty logic. So if a guy tears his ACL the first time he gets tackled we should assume he'll get injured every time he is tackled?Raiderfan32904 said:Since we are doing math problems, consider that on Carson's 23rd sack of the season last year, came early in week 15. He got his ribs broken on that sack and ended up on IR. Do the math on 4 sacks per game, and you can surmise one the of 49ers LB's will put him out of his misery in week 6.FF Ninja said:It's also worth noting that if Palmer throws the ball 40 times a game that would be 640 attempts. I suspect both numbers (att & sacks) will decrease. If they don't, and he survives 64 sacks, 640 attempts probably nets him a top 5 QB finish.
He was once sacked 36 times in a season and did not miss time, so how do you extrapolate that? Hint: you don't. This is nonsense.
Carson Palmer has done a good job of avoiding sacks in the past and can do so again. He needs to in order to stay healthy all season. I did some analysis of the sack numbers he has taken in his career up to this point earlier on in the thread. I think Palmer even if he does get sacked 40-50 times this season (which is higher than his career sacks/season) he could still stay healthy and be very productive.
40 would be 2.5 sacks/game. 50 would be 3.1 sacks/game. The number of sacks does not reflect the number of times he is getting hit, which is much higher.
I do think he could stay healthy and have a productive season even if he is sacked at this level (which is a bit higher than he ever has been sacked in his career before). But the Cardinals need to collectively bring those numbers down or else he may get injured at some point.
Good news is Drew Stanton while not as good as Palmer can likely do a decent job if this happens. So if Palmer is important to your team you should be looking to add Stanton as insurance.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
single handedly destroyed me in a league this past week, Im sure vs Jax is the outlier game.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
That was his only week in the Top 10 this season. His weekly rankings have been: 15, 23, 32, 20, 27, 12, 24, 13, 12, and 3.
massraider
Footballguy
So.....no. Not overrated.
Faust
MVP
On the positive side of things, his best weekly ranking in his first 5 games was 15th and over his last 5 games he has performed much better.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Any news on Palmer playing?
Any thoughts on how his condition will affect the Cards' skill players?
I've been treating this as all systems go but maybe I've been wrong for thinking that way?
Any thoughts on how his condition will affect the Cards' skill players?
I've been treating this as all systems go but maybe I've been wrong for thinking that way?
I've been a bit nervous too. Going back and forth on starting Larry fitz. Since it's a must win for them I'm sure the cards are going to rely on their best player, especially with Palmer a little banged up. So my 2 starts for the cardinals will be Floyd and Fitzgerald. I can't see them relying on their running game in a must win situation
bostonfred
Footballguy
There was a stretch towards the end of last season where he was one of the highest scoring fantasy qbs in the nfl. He sucked against seattle, obviously, and was hardly perfect, but a decent qb with awesome receivers and crappy running game is going to put up borderline startable numbers. Great bargain backup in larger dynasty leagues and a good pickup in redraft at the right price.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I admit Palmer did a little better than I expected, but that was mostly due to the fact he played in every game this year (which was a rarity in prior seasons). Even though he ranked 8th in the NFL in passing yards and 12th in passing TD, he still only ranked as the 17th best fantasy QB in total points and 22nd in fantasy ppg (for QBs that played in at least 8 games).
IMO, most weeks he really isn't a fantasy QB1. But he is a decent fantasy back up, QBBC candidate, and bye week filler. Last year, he averaged almost 12 and a half points less than Peyton, which could have killed you right there in a head to head match up. Granted, only one team in each league had Peyton, but he averaged 3-4 points less than most fantasy QB1s.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I think last year has predictive value, but not for the same things you're suggesting. Palmer looked MUCH stronger in the second half of year one with the Cardinals than in the first half
almer first eight games: 1903 yards, 10 TDs, 14 interceptionsPalmer last eight games: 2371 yards, 14 TDs, 8 interceptions
Palmer last eight NON SEAHAWK games: 2365 yards, 15 TDs, 5 interceptions
Why am I more interested in second half games? Because he's starting with a new team, a new coach, an emerging WR... lots of things that could trend upwards for 2014. Sure, he's 34, and it's a little late in his career for him to put up his best season. But Manning sucked for the first few games of 2013. Then once he felt more confident in his arm strength, and had learned his receivers a little, they started to click. I don't think Palmer's anywhere close to Manning, but I do think that if an early slump can happen to Manning when he joins a new team with stud receivers, it can certainly happen to Palmer when he joins a new team with stud receivers.
Why do I break out NON SEAHAWK games? Because you're not going to start Carson Palmer against the Seahawks unless he's literally your only QB. It's just not happening. If you want to call that a QBBC, that's fine, but I'm not benching him against the 49ers (he had 705 yards, 3 TDs and 3 INTs in their two meetings). Against the Rams, he had 696/3/1. But in two games against the Seahawks, he had just 436 yards, 2 TDs and SIX interceptions. So you can bench him with confidence for that matchup.
And I love the team around him. The Cards are trending upwards. The defense looks legit. Fitzgerald has to be as excited as he's been since Kurt Warner. Floyd is emerging. The team believes in Arians. For the first time in a long time, there are real reasons for optimism for Cards fans, and one of those reasons is that the passing game had some great momentum going in the second half of the season last year. It sucks that they play the Seahawks twice, and play a bunch of other tough defenses, too, but that's why you can get him so cheaply - which makes him a much better PPG play at the end of the season than a guy who you would start for all 16 games.
Faust
MVP
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think my projections were pretty good on Carson Palmer last year. But perhaps better without subtracting the sack yardage.
540-610pa 330-390com 3800-4400yds 20-27Td if healthy 16 games.
He finished with 572pa 362com 4274yds 24Td 41 sacks 22 interceptions.
Palmer had career highs in sacks taken and interceptions in 2013. With the improvement to LT and the return of LG Cooper I see both of those numbers going down as they give Palmer better protection than last season.
So I am expecting pretty much a repeat performance but with a few more TD possibly and less interceptions.
The Cardinals lost Andre Roberts but added John Carlson. I think Ellington could see more targets than last season but I am not entirely sure where Roberts targets will go. Perhaps Floyd will get a few more.
540-610pa 330-390com 3800-4400yds 20-27Td if healthy 16 games.
He finished with 572pa 362com 4274yds 24Td 41 sacks 22 interceptions.
Palmer had career highs in sacks taken and interceptions in 2013. With the improvement to LT and the return of LG Cooper I see both of those numbers going down as they give Palmer better protection than last season.
So I am expecting pretty much a repeat performance but with a few more TD possibly and less interceptions.
The Cardinals lost Andre Roberts but added John Carlson. I think Ellington could see more targets than last season but I am not entirely sure where Roberts targets will go. Perhaps Floyd will get a few more.
Ugh, I'm back on board. The addition of Veldheer and Cooper should really go a long way towards keeping him upright (Larsen from TB might be the third new starter for this porous line). Familiarity with the offense will help. Familiarity with the WRs will help. And hopefully Fitzgerald is healthy this year. Two different hamstring injuries really slowed him down a lot.
Make room for one more seat. He could be this year's Philip Rivers.
Obviously Palmer and AZ will have to face each of the NFC West teams twice so those are tough matchups and therefore unlikely to be a plug-and-play every week QB1.
But other than that he has a nice combination of soft defenses and shootout potential (Giants, Redskins, Eagles, Cowboys, Broncos, Raiders, Chargers, Lions).
Palmer has significantly more upside than anyone else currently being ranked below QB18 or so.
Faust
MVP
Rotoworld:
Carson Palmer - QB - Cardinals
Carson Palmer says the offense is "light years" ahead of where it was at last season.
At this time last year, Bruce Arians was installing a new scheme that had the players "swimming." That showed early in the season, as the Cardinals averaged 20.0 points per game in Weeks 1-8 before coming on to post 27.3 in Weeks 9-17. Arians is among the game's brightest passing-game minds and has plenty of weapons to work with in Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and Andre Ellington. Only a complete faceplant from the flickering Palmer will keep this offense from taking a step forward.
Source: Arizona Republic
May 26 - 11:33 AM
Carson Palmer - QB - Cardinals
Carson Palmer says the offense is "light years" ahead of where it was at last season.
At this time last year, Bruce Arians was installing a new scheme that had the players "swimming." That showed early in the season, as the Cardinals averaged 20.0 points per game in Weeks 1-8 before coming on to post 27.3 in Weeks 9-17. Arians is among the game's brightest passing-game minds and has plenty of weapons to work with in Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and Andre Ellington. Only a complete faceplant from the flickering Palmer will keep this offense from taking a step forward.
Source: Arizona Republic
May 26 - 11:33 AM
Faust
MVP
Palmer: Cardinals 'most talented team'
http://espn.go.com/blog/arizona-cardinals/post/_/id/7410/palmer-cardinals-most-talented-team
http://espn.go.com/blog/arizona-cardinals/post/_/id/7410/palmer-cardinals-most-talented-team
Archer
Footballguy
Didn't read this latest news until right now, but feeling even better about a redraft trade I just made
Gave: Andre Johnson & Palmer
Got: Spiller & Cam Newton (needed a QB as RG3 was my starter and needed RB help)
I know, you all care so much about my team.
Gave: Andre Johnson & Palmer
Got: Spiller & Cam Newton (needed a QB as RG3 was my starter and needed RB help)
I know, you all care so much about my team.
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Faust
MVP
Drew Stanton on track to start for Cardinals vs. 49ers:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000396458/article/drew-stanton-on-track-to-start-for-cardinals-vs-49ers
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000396458/article/drew-stanton-on-track-to-start-for-cardinals-vs-49ers
Faust
MVP
Is it time to start worrying about Carson Palmer?
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000396753/article/is-it-time-to-start-worrying-about-carson-palmer
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000396753/article/is-it-time-to-start-worrying-about-carson-palmer
Tanner9919
Footballguy
profootballfocus has a story about it by a Dr..basically if he's out week 3 , worry bigtime..it could be a season ending thing..
just_want_2_win
Footballguy
According to RW Palmer won't pay week 3. With the above article in mind, looks like his season is in jeopardy.
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/2550/carson-palmer
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/2550/carson-palmer
just_want_2_win
Footballguy
You misunderstood the article. Carson has an injury that comes in 3 grades in terms of severity:
A grade-I injury lasts from a few hours to at most two weeks.
A grade-II injury consists of motor weakness that lasts for longer than two weeks. Typically 80 to 90 percent of the cases recover by six weeks.
A grade-III injury consists of extremity weakness that lasts longer than one year, and could involve permanent motor weakness
.
If Palmer indeed does have chronic burner syndrome—which is still only an educated guess to his diagnosis—his return to play is difficult to predict. However, if he does not play in Week 3, he likely has a more severe peripheral nerve injury (grade II or III). That would give him a poor prognosis for the rest of his season. If he misses Week 3, his fantasy owners should be ready to hit the panic button.
According to that, if he has a grade II injury he could be ok within 6 weeks. However, if he has a grade III injury, he could need a year to recover, if he ever does. By missing week 3, if the injury is what they suspect, it's likely he has at least a grade II injury and maybe even a grade III.
dschuler
Footballguy
If he has a grade III, almost 35 years old, I think his starting quarterback career is over.
