Is Carson Palmer underrated? (1 Viewer)

Anarchy99 · Jun 1, 2015

Tool said:
Anarchy99 said:

Not to keep beating on Palmer, but he ranked 14th in PPG last year, 23rd in PPG in 2013, and 21st in PPG for 2013-2014 combined. For whatever reasons, he's missed 30 games over his career and will be 36 during the season. I haven't exactly followed the Cardinals closely this off season, were there many upgrades on offense to lead people to believe Palmer has a better offense to work with this year?

Click to expand...

2 big injuries are responsible for most of those missed games. But yeah, not denying there's risk there. I mean we haven't seen him play since he got hurt. But all reports is that he's on track. If can get him late, he's worth a shot.

Here is the big strategy debate. For those choosing not to invest early or somewhat early in a QB, going with a QBBC or fishing for a decent starter has actually gotten harder not easier. Yes, there are more candidates that could put up ok production, but the list of QBs that will put up great production has increased as well. Obviously mixing and matching is an option, but if you play on leagues with limited roster size you can't roster 4 QBs. Almost every owner in my 12 team leagues rosters two QBs, so there are not a lot of extra options available.

Going back to 2005 when Palmer ranked as the #1 fantasy QB, the scoring different from him to the #12 QB was 57 points. Last year, the span from 1 to 12 was 108 points and the year before it was 177 points (admittedly skewed by Peyton). Bottom line, there can be a sizable scoring differential to make up from playing ok or QBBC options vs. the top dogs at QB these days.

Faust · Jun 9, 2015

Carson Palmer '100 percent' entering Cards' minicamp

Biabreakable · Jun 9, 2015

Anarchy99 said:
Tool said:

Anarchy99 said:

Not to keep beating on Palmer, but he ranked 14th in PPG last year, 23rd in PPG in 2013, and 21st in PPG for 2013-2014 combined. For whatever reasons, he's missed 30 games over his career and will be 36 during the season. I haven't exactly followed the Cardinals closely this off season, were there many upgrades on offense to lead people to believe Palmer has a better offense to work with this year?

Click to expand...

2 big injuries are responsible for most of those missed games. But yeah, not denying there's risk there. I mean we haven't seen him play since he got hurt. But all reports is that he's on track. If can get him late, he's worth a shot.

Click to expand...

Here is the big strategy debate. For those choosing not to invest early or somewhat early in a QB, going with a QBBC or fishing for a decent starter has actually gotten harder not easier. Yes, there are more candidates that could put up ok production, but the list of QBs that will put up great production has increased as well. Obviously mixing and matching is an option, but if you play on leagues with limited roster size you can't roster 4 QBs. Almost every owner in my 12 team leagues rosters two QBs, so there are not a lot of extra options available.

Going back to 2005 when Palmer ranked as the #1 fantasy QB, the scoring different from him to the #12 QB was 57 points. Last year, the span from 1 to 12 was 108 points and the year before it was 177 points (admittedly skewed by Peyton). Bottom line, there can be a sizable scoring differential to make up from playing ok or QBBC options vs. the top dogs at QB these days.

Your point is well taken that the threshold to perform as a top 12 QB has become about 30 points higher the past 3 seasons than it used to be prior to 2012.

2014 Phillip Rivers 16gm 570pa 379cmp 4286yds 31TD 18INT 102 rushyds 266pts
2013 Ben Roethlisberger 16gm 584pa 375cmp 4261yds 28TD 14INT 99 rushyds 1TD 261pts
2012 Andy Dalton 16gm 528pa 329cmp 3669yds 27TD 16INT 120 rushyds 4TD 251pts
2011 Ryan Fitzpatrick 16gm 569pa 353cmp 3832yds 24TD 23INT 215 rushyds 229pts
2010 Carson Palmer 16gm 586pa 362cmp 3970yds 26TD 20INT 50 rushyds 230pts
2009 David Garrard 16gm 516pa 314cmp 3597yds 15TD 10INt 323 rushyds 3TD 236pts
2008 Tony Romo 13gm 450pa 276cmp 3448yds 26TD 14INT 42 rushyds 218pts
2007 Kurt Warner 11gm 451pa 281cmp 3417yds 27TD 17INT 15 rushyds 1TD 218pts
2006 Eli Manning 16gm 522pa 301cmp 3244yds 24TD 18INT 21 rushyds 192pts
2005 Jake Delhomme 16gm 435pa 262cmp 3421yds 24TD 16INT 31 rushyds 210pts
2004 Michael Vick 15gm 321pa 181cmp 2313yds 14TD 12INT 902 rushyds 3TD 233pts

So from 2004 to 2011 QB 12 scored an average of 220 points.

Palmer did finish as QB 12 in 2010 and he did score 224pts in 2012 221 points in 2013 which is right there but those seasons he only finished QB 18 and QB 17 respectively. In 2007 Palmer scored 230 points which was good enough for QB 9 that season.

So while Palmer when healthy has performed at a similar level as he has earlier in his career, there are many more QB performing at this level in recent seasons than there were back when Palmer was repeating top 12 QB seasons.

I still think at the time of this thread origin that Palmer was under-rated because he was being drafted at QB 20+ and he does have the upside to perform as a QB 12 because he would have done so with his 2013 numbers if the bar had not been raised so high.

According to this ADP Palmer is the 19th QB being selected in redraft formats, which seems about right considered where he has finished recently when healthy for most of the season.

In dynasty formats Palmer isn't drafted until the late 20s from what I have seen and presents a interesting short term rental option at that price.

Tool · Jun 9, 2015

Biabreakable said:
Anarchy99 said:

Tool said:

Anarchy99 said:

Not to keep beating on Palmer, but he ranked 14th in PPG last year, 23rd in PPG in 2013, and 21st in PPG for 2013-2014 combined. For whatever reasons, he's missed 30 games over his career and will be 36 during the season. I haven't exactly followed the Cardinals closely this off season, were there many upgrades on offense to lead people to believe Palmer has a better offense to work with this year?

Click to expand...

2 big injuries are responsible for most of those missed games. But yeah, not denying there's risk there. I mean we haven't seen him play since he got hurt. But all reports is that he's on track. If can get him late, he's worth a shot.

Click to expand...

Here is the big strategy debate. For those choosing not to invest early or somewhat early in a QB, going with a QBBC or fishing for a decent starter has actually gotten harder not easier. Yes, there are more candidates that could put up ok production, but the list of QBs that will put up great production has increased as well. Obviously mixing and matching is an option, but if you play on leagues with limited roster size you can't roster 4 QBs. Almost every owner in my 12 team leagues rosters two QBs, so there are not a lot of extra options available.

Going back to 2005 when Palmer ranked as the #1 fantasy QB, the scoring different from him to the #12 QB was 57 points. Last year, the span from 1 to 12 was 108 points and the year before it was 177 points (admittedly skewed by Peyton). Bottom line, there can be a sizable scoring differential to make up from playing ok or QBBC options vs. the top dogs at QB these days.

Click to expand...

Your point is well taken that the threshold to perform as a top 12 QB has become about 30 points higher the past 3 seasons than it used to be prior to 2012.

2014 Phillip Rivers 16gm 570pa 379cmp 4286yds 31TD 18INT 102 rushyds 266pts
2013 Ben Roethlisberger 16gm 584pa 375cmp 4261yds 28TD 14INT 99 rushyds 1TD 261pts
2012 Andy Dalton 16gm 528pa 329cmp 3669yds 27TD 16INT 120 rushyds 4TD 251pts
2011 Ryan Fitzpatrick 16gm 569pa 353cmp 3832yds 24TD 23INT 215 rushyds 229pts
2010 Carson Palmer 16gm 586pa 362cmp 3970yds 26TD 20INT 50 rushyds 230pts
2009 David Garrard 16gm 516pa 314cmp 3597yds 15TD 10INt 323 rushyds 3TD 236pts
2008 Tony Romo 13gm 450pa 276cmp 3448yds 26TD 14INT 42 rushyds 218pts
2007 Kurt Warner 11gm 451pa 281cmp 3417yds 27TD 17INT 15 rushyds 1TD 218pts
2006 Eli Manning 16gm 522pa 301cmp 3244yds 24TD 18INT 21 rushyds 192pts
2005 Jake Delhomme 16gm 435pa 262cmp 3421yds 24TD 16INT 31 rushyds 210pts
2004 Michael Vick 15gm 321pa 181cmp 2313yds 14TD 12INT 902 rushyds 3TD 233pts

So from 2004 to 2011 QB 12 scored an average of 220 points.

Palmer did finish as QB 12 in 2010 and he did score 224pts in 2012 221 points in 2013 which is right there but those seasons he only finished QB 18 and QB 17 respectively. In 2007 Palmer scored 230 points which was good enough for QB 9 that season.

So while Palmer when healthy has performed at a similar level as he has earlier in his career, there are many more QB performing at this level in recent seasons than there were back when Palmer was repeating top 12 QB seasons.

I still think at the time of this thread origin that Palmer was under-rated because he was being drafted at QB 20+ and he does have the upside to perform as a QB 12 because he would have done so with his 2013 numbers if the bar had not been raised so high.

According to this ADP Palmer is the 19th QB being selected in redraft formats, which seems about right considered where he has finished recently when healthy for most of the season.

In dynasty formats Palmer isn't drafted until the late 20s from what I have seen and presents a interesting short term rental option at that price.

Palmer can be a top 12 Qb if he stays healthy. Indications are Arizona is going to throw more this year. They have some weapons. Could be gold in 2 QB leagues. In 1 QB leagues he's worth taking as a QB2 as potential. starter some weeks.

FF Ninja · Jun 10, 2015

Anarchy99 said:
Going back to 2005 when Palmer ranked as the #1 fantasy QB, the scoring different from him to the #12 QB was 57 points. Last year, the span from 1 to 12 was 108 points and the year before it was 177 points (admittedly skewed by Peyton). Bottom line, there can be a sizable scoring differential to make up from playing ok or QBBC options vs. the top dogs at QB these days.

Back in 2005 only one player threw more than 600 passes (Favre with 606). Palmer finished with the 5th most passes at 509. In the last three years, the league has averaged six QBs with over 600 pass attempts. So it's not like Palmer just lucked out and squeaked into QB1 back when it was easier to do so. Finishing as the QB1 with the 5th most pass attempts and only 34 rushing yards was quite an accomplishment. In a Bruce Arians offense with a line that can block, he's got upside this year.

While I agree that the difference between 1 and 12 is sizable. The difference between QB6 and QB12 isn't nearly as significant and players in the QB6 range tend to be hard to predict. Last year Big Ben (QB6) and Eli (QB8) snuck up there despite being QB16 and QB21 by ADP. The year before it was Dalton (QB3) and Rivers (QB6) who both had ADPs in the QB20s. With a decent o-line and potential for 600+ passing attempts, Palmer has a very good chance to finish in the QB10-12 range at a QB18 price this year, which isn't super exciting, but gives you someone relatively safe at a low cost should you want to take a shot at predicting the next surprise QB6-ish guy while using your high and mid round picks on other positions.

Also, the difference between QB1 and QB12 is made less meaningful in that predicting QB1 has been a bit of a crapshoot. How often does the top drafted QB actually finish as QB1?

This year in particular, if you don't land one of the top 2 QBs, I think it makes sense to just wait. Russell Wilson (QB3) is a great QB, but any improvements in his passing stats brought by Jimmy Graham could easily be offset by his rushing numbers returning to earth (849/6 last year). Peyton (QB4) is getting pretty old, lost his left tackle, and will likely throw the ball a lot less. Brees (QB5) is almost certainly going to throw less and lost two key targets. And if you get towards the end of the top 12 and are thinking about Eli, Ryan, Brady, Romo, or Stafford, you might as well just wait for Palmer. They are all in the same tier in my mind. Roughly 4000/30 guys with no rushing.

Freelove · Jun 10, 2015

Anarchy99 said:
Tool said:

Anarchy99 said:

Not to keep beating on Palmer, but he ranked 14th in PPG last year, 23rd in PPG in 2013, and 21st in PPG for 2013-2014 combined. For whatever reasons, he's missed 30 games over his career and will be 36 during the season. I haven't exactly followed the Cardinals closely this off season, were there many upgrades on offense to lead people to believe Palmer has a better offense to work with this year?

Click to expand...

2 big injuries are responsible for most of those missed games. But yeah, not denying there's risk there. I mean we haven't seen him play since he got hurt. But all reports is that he's on track. If can get him late, he's worth a shot.

Click to expand...

Here is the big strategy debate. For those choosing not to invest early or somewhat early in a QB, going with a QBBC or fishing for a decent starter has actually gotten harder not easier. Yes, there are more candidates that could put up ok production, but the list of QBs that will put up great production has increased as well. Obviously mixing and matching is an option, but if you play on leagues with limited roster size you can't roster 4 QBs. Almost every owner in my 12 team leagues rosters two QBs, so there are not a lot of extra options available. Going back to 2005 when Palmer ranked as the #1 fantasy QB, the scoring different from him to the #12 QB was 57 points. Last year, the span from 1 to 12 was 108 points and the year before it was 177 points (admittedly skewed by Peyton). Bottom line, there can be a sizable scoring differential to make up from playing ok or QBBC options vs. the top dogs at QB these days.

At the same time, that larger gap can merely represent the mathematical reality of larger raw numbers.The flip side there is that if you're going QBBC, assuming you're cobbling it together out of a few QB 12-24 types, you're now looking at a range running from like Eli Manning (4400/30) down to a glut of QB's that produced in the 3000/15 range with some decent rushing numbers on the side. Likewise, in an era of higher scoring, the fact that you're "rationally guessing" which guys will outscore their rankings no longer means you're hoping to scratch the top five when Drew Bledsoe surprises with 3500/23...you're hopin Ben Roethlisberger does it with 5000/30.

In 2005, Brad Johnson was a QB2 with 1800/12.

A rising tide lifts all boats. :shrug:

You've still got to pick the right guys, but QBBC seems to me as viable as it ever was.

Faust · Jun 30, 2015

What Should We Expect From Carson Palmer in 2015?

Ilov80s · Jul 5, 2015

Tool said:
Anarchy99 said:

Not to keep beating on Palmer, but he ranked 14th in PPG last year, 23rd in PPG in 2013, and 21st in PPG for 2013-2014 combined. For whatever reasons, he's missed 30 games over his career and will be 36 during the season. I haven't exactly followed the Cardinals closely this off season, were there many upgrades on offense to lead people to believe Palmer has a better offense to work with this year?

Click to expand...

2 big injuries are responsible for most of those missed games. But yeah, not denying there's risk there. I mean we haven't seen him play since he got hurt. But all reports is that he's on track. If can get him late, he's worth a shot.

Ofcourse it can be worth a shot, it costs almost nothing as he is being totally written off by many. I play in a 6 pt per passing TD league and he averaged as much as Brady, Tannehill, Rivers and Romo whom are all going many rounds earlier. Ofcourse, there is the additional risk of injury, but in terms of value, it is a reasonable gamble IMO.

Faust · Jul 6, 2015

NFC West Q&A: Does Cardinals QB Carson Palmer scare division opponents?

Captain Hook · Jul 7, 2015

Palmer will be fine this year IF/when he stays healthy which means you need a "partner for him"

Better depth amongst RB, good WR (TE not relevant in the Cards offense) - look at his games last year before the injury

BUT be prepared with his replacement if he goes down

Faust · Jul 16, 2015

Healthy Carson Palmer Hosts Refresher Work

Anarchy99 · Jul 16, 2015

Since Palmer got to ARI, he's ranked 20th in fantasy ppg (over the 2013-2014 range among QBs with at least 8 games played). If we bump it up to at least 20 games played, the only player that would fall off is Sanchez.

I still think anyone looking for Palmer to have a featured role on a fantasy team in anything resembling standard size or standard scoring leagues is going to end up disappointed and behind the QB scoring curve. I suppose he might be an option in some multi-QBBC scheme, but with the numer of higher scoring QBs not costing all that much even that might not be a great option.

Would probably be a decent back up / bye week fill in / bench depth pick.

jvdesigns2002 · Jul 16, 2015

I don't know. I wouldn't feel comfortable having Carson Palmer as my weekly fantasy starter. I understand how many people wait on qb--but I don't see the reason to wait for a guy like Palmer. Guys like Romo, Ryan, Eli, Stafford aren't going super high. If you are in a 12 team league--and you have a guy like Palmer--you can probably reasonably expect him to be a qb10-12 if he stays healthy. The basically means you are losing points at the qb position in probably 70-80% of your matchups. I understand that I'm probably in the minority here.

Ilov80s · Jul 17, 2015

Anarchy99 said:
Since Palmer got to ARI, he's ranked 20th in fantasy ppg (over the 2013-2014 range among QBs with at least 8 games played). If we bump it up to at least 20 games played, the only player that would fall off is Sanchez.

I still think anyone looking for Palmer to have a featured role on a fantasy team in anything resembling standard size or standard scoring leagues is going to end up disappointed and behind the QB scoring curve. I suppose he might be an option in some multi-QBBC scheme, but with the numer of higher scoring QBs not costing all that much even that might not be a great option.

Would probably be a decent back up / bye week fill in / bench depth pick.

jvdesigns2002 said:
I don't know. I wouldn't feel comfortable having Carson Palmer as my weekly fantasy starter. I understand how many people wait on qb--but I don't see the reason to wait for a guy like Palmer. Guys like Romo, Ryan, Eli, Stafford aren't going super high. If you are in a 12 team league--and you have a guy like Palmer--you can probably reasonably expect him to be a qb10-12 if he stays healthy. The basically means you are losing points at the qb position in probably 70-80% of your matchups. I understand that I'm probably in the minority here.

My league is 6 pts per passing TD and you are right that Palmer falls outside of the starter category for PPG. However, the ranking isn't as important as the actual point value relative to the price. Last year, Palmer averaged 21.3 ff ppg. That was 15th amongst QBs. That is only 1 ppg less than the 8th overall QB Cam Newton. Cam is going in the 6-7 rounds and Carson is rounds 11-12. What possile combos would be more beneficial for your fantasy team: Vincent Jackson/Carson Palmer vs Cam Newton/Brian Quick or Crowell/Palmer vs Cam/Ajayi?

You could take a Romo or Eli or Rivers. They will go between the 7th and 11th rounds. They also only outscored Palmer per game by 0.5-0.6 ppg last year. It's a very risky move waiting and baking on Palmer because of the injury history, but bold moves are what creates great teams. The hope is that there are valuable RBs/WRs you are able to snatch up while other teams are drafting their 1st and sometimes 2nd QB.

Faust · Aug 1, 2015

Arians: Palmer won't be on pitch count in preseason

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000505619/article/arians-palmer-wont-be-on-pitch-count-in-preseason

Faust · Aug 10, 2015

Why Carson Palmer is even better following a second knee surgery

TripItUp · Aug 10, 2015

Absolute steal at his current ADP/ranking.

He'll be on every one of my teams.

Faust · Aug 16, 2015

Carson Palmer shows what's in store in short but perfect outing:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/174748/carson-palmer-shows-whats-in-store-in-short-but-perfect-outing

SaintsInDome2006 · Sep 2, 2015

I'm a little surprised how low Palmer has been ranked across the board.... he opens vs the Saints, who just lost Keenan Lewis, and they're still gelling with a lot of new parts on the line, LB, secondary... I could see him open with a very good game.

The 3rd preseason game reads bad, but last year he did have good stretches against the right opponents and IIRC a pretty good game vs Seattle.

Still I suppose it's the 6 games vs Sea, SF & STL that have people spooked. And the age and injury risk factor.

massraider · Sep 2, 2015

SaintsInDome2006 said:
Still I suppose it's the 6 games vs Sea, SF & STL that have people spooked. And the age and injury risk factor.

And the offensive line. But really aside from the schedule, age, injury risk, and offensive line, I don't see any problems.

FF Ninja · Sep 2, 2015

massraider said:
SaintsInDome2006 said:

Still I suppose it's the 6 games vs Sea, SF & STL that have people spooked. And the age and injury risk factor.

Click to expand...

And the offensive line. But really aside from the schedule, age, injury risk, and offensive line, I don't see any problems.

Is Lupati still slated to miss 4 games and Massie 3 games? Any other notable guys missing time? When those guys get back, his line should be decent. Matt Bitonti had them ranked 16th before that injury and suspension.

Also, I wouldn't worry about the SF defense.

TripItUp · Sep 2, 2015

love him as my QB2 or QB3

Fantasysports1 · Sep 2, 2015

Not as my QB 1 but if you grab a Brady or Bradford, you could do worse than Palmer as backup. Though Palmer goes later than other QBs like Rivers, so it might not make sense to reach for Palmer unless you like him.

SaintsInDome2006 · Sep 2, 2015

ConnSKINS26 said:
Anarchy99 said:

Not to keep beating on Palmer, but he ranked 14th in PPG last year, 23rd in PPG in 2013, and 21st in PPG for 2013-2014 combined. For whatever reasons, he's missed 30 games over his career and will be 36 during the season. I haven't exactly followed the Cardinals closely this off season, were there many upgrades on offense to lead people to believe Palmer has a better offense to work with this year?

Click to expand...

If you remove the last game he was hurt in (where he scored 8 points and left early obviously), he was QB6 in many of my leagues up until that week.

I realize this is an old post but this was my point. I just checked in PPG he was like 5th-6th in a standard scoring, 6 pt/TD league I just checked. Palmer had 11 TDs in 5 games.

People are drafting John Brown, and probably Fitz and Floyd are getting drafted.

Ellington, David Johnson, Gresham has been added.

I realize PS game 3 was a disaster on the line and all the other reports on that issue, I think the main issue is his injury history.

SaintsInDome2006 · Sep 2, 2015

Anarchy99 said:
Tool said:

Anarchy99 said:

Not to keep beating on Palmer, but he ranked 14th in PPG last year, 23rd in PPG in 2013, and 21st in PPG for 2013-2014 combined. For whatever reasons, he's missed 30 games over his career and will be 36 during the season. I haven't exactly followed the Cardinals closely this off season, were there many upgrades on offense to lead people to believe Palmer has a better offense to work with this year?

Click to expand...

2 big injuries are responsible for most of those missed games. But yeah, not denying there's risk there. I mean we haven't seen him play since he got hurt. But all reports is that he's on track. If can get him late, he's worth a shot.

Click to expand...

Here is the big strategy debate. For those choosing not to invest early or somewhat early in a QB, going with a QBBC or fishing for a decent starter has actually gotten harder not easier. Yes, there are more candidates that could put up ok production, but the list of QBs that will put up great production has increased as well. Obviously mixing and matching is an option, but if you play on leagues with limited roster size you can't roster 4 QBs. Almost every owner in my 12 team leagues rosters two QBs, so there are not a lot of extra options available.

Going back to 2005 when Palmer ranked as the #1 fantasy QB, the scoring different from him to the #12 QB was 57 points. Last year, the span from 1 to 12 was 108 points and the year before it was 177 points (admittedly skewed by Peyton). Bottom line, there can be a sizable scoring differential to make up from playing ok or QBBC options vs. the top dogs at QB these days.

(I know another old post, just :hophead:

and thinking).

The difference between no. 6 QB and no. 12 or 12-15 QBs is pretty tight though, isn't it?

Ben, Wilson, Ryan, Eli, Romo, Rivers, Tannehill, Palmer, Cutler, Stafford, Flacco - those QBs all seem pretty fluid in that mid-tier. Ben's probably in for a great year so take him out but everyone else seems like they could slide up and down between 6-15 pretty easily. I wouldn't be surprised if Mariota, Bridgewater or Carr get in there too.

Anarchy99 · Sep 3, 2015

SaintsInDome2006 said:
Anarchy99 said:

Tool said:

Anarchy99 said:

Not to keep beating on Palmer, but he ranked 14th in PPG last year, 23rd in PPG in 2013, and 21st in PPG for 2013-2014 combined. For whatever reasons, he's missed 30 games over his career and will be 36 during the season. I haven't exactly followed the Cardinals closely this off season, were there many upgrades on offense to lead people to believe Palmer has a better offense to work with this year?

Click to expand...

2 big injuries are responsible for most of those missed games. But yeah, not denying there's risk there. I mean we haven't seen him play since he got hurt. But all reports is that he's on track. If can get him late, he's worth a shot.

Click to expand...

Here is the big strategy debate. For those choosing not to invest early or somewhat early in a QB, going with a QBBC or fishing for a decent starter has actually gotten harder not easier. Yes, there are more candidates that could put up ok production, but the list of QBs that will put up great production has increased as well. Obviously mixing and matching is an option, but if you play on leagues with limited roster size you can't roster 4 QBs. Almost every owner in my 12 team leagues rosters two QBs, so there are not a lot of extra options available.

Going back to 2005 when Palmer ranked as the #1 fantasy QB, the scoring different from him to the #12 QB was 57 points. Last year, the span from 1 to 12 was 108 points and the year before it was 177 points (admittedly skewed by Peyton). Bottom line, there can be a sizable scoring differential to make up from playing ok or QBBC options vs. the top dogs at QB these days.

Click to expand...

(I know another old post, just and thinking).

The difference between no. 6 QB and no. 12 or 12-15 QBs is pretty tight though, isn't it?

Ben, Wilson, Ryan, Eli, Romo, Rivers, Tannehill, Palmer, Cutler, Stafford, Flacco - those QBs all seem pretty fluid in that mid-tier. Ben's probably in for a great year so take him out but everyone else seems like they could slide up and down between 6-15 pretty easily. I wouldn't be surprised if Mariota, Bridgewater or Carr get in there too.

We all can debate this over and over again. In my main 6 pts per TD league, Palmer ranked 13th in ppg in the 6 games he played. Let's not punish him anything for missing 10 games. We don't know what he would have done in those games because he never played them.

This is part of the faulty circular logic that doomed Jay Cutler and John McCown owners and Nick Foles owners last year. People pimped Cutler by adding together what Culter and McCown did the year before and set that as the floor for Cutler. McCown owners wanted to extrapolate how well he did filling in for Cutler that they nabbed him as a sleeper in TBB. People ran the numbers and extrapolated what Foles would have done over a full season and drooled. Sure, all of those outcomes would have been nice if they actually turned out that way . . . but they didn't.

Palmer has shown his true colors over the years, and the practical reality is he has been an average NFL and average fantasy QB. Not good enough to be considered elite or a must start but not bad enough to be considered a dreg to society. People will say look at the numbers Luck put up with Arians. Look at how well Big Ben turned out and the numbers he produced with Arians. But Palmer is neither of those two. He is a past his prime, multi-time injured, non-mobile QB. Last season, he threw more TDs than usual against several weaker opponents and suddenly he is an offensive juggernaut? I am more inclined to suggest hot streak or fluke over a regular weekly outcome.

I am not saying Palmer is going to tank, and as you pointed out, QB scoring from say QB 8 to QB 16 is really not that different. Yes, if Palmer were to stay upright he could fall in that bandwidth somewhere, but in fantasy circles where you have to submit a line up that still could net negative scoring compared to your opponent with a better QB. I would lump Palmer and Cutler in the same category. They will both have some really good games, but they will have too many clunkers with multiple interceptions where you will get killed if you start them those weeks.

Maybe I am way off base, but Palmer would have to do several things that he has had problems doing: throwing a lot of TDs, not turning the ball over, playing consistently, and staying on the field. He's almost 36, and some of his better seasons he had the benefit of being able to go nuts in garbage time because opponents didn't care because they were way ahead.

But, as they say, that's why they play the games.

Faust · Sep 14, 2015

Carson Palmer avoids hits, shows he's back in return from ACL surgery:

http://espn.go.com/blog/arizona-cardinals/post/_/id/16090/carson-palmer-avoids-hits-shows-hes-back-in-return-from-acl-surgery

Fantasysports1 · Sep 14, 2015

I took Eli Manning a little early and Palmer a lot later. Looks like Palmer might be better than Eli Manning.

ponchsox · Sep 14, 2015

Thank God I took him as a Peyton backup

SaintsInDome2006 · Sep 14, 2015

He looked great, excellent receiving corps, mobile backs. Biggest problem was he took off on two runs during the first half which were probably bad ideas as he came up gimpy. If he does the Payton thing and just protect himself that would help a lot.

SaintsInDome2006 · Sep 14, 2015

Field Yates Verified account ‏@FieldYates

Carson Palmer's last 7 starts: 1,933 yards, 14 TD, 3 INT. Cardinals have averaged 26.6 ppg and are 7-0 in those starts.

Bears are next.

Faust · Sep 25, 2015

Snake's Take: My view of Carson Palmer's hot start for the Cardinals

SaintsInDome2006 · Sep 25, 2015

Faust said:
Snake's Take: My view of Carson Palmer's hot start for the Cardinals

This is a good piece.

I think the line has been much better, but the Cards have also played a couple weak rushes.

Regardless in one league I just checked Palmer comes in 2nd among all QBs.

Uncle Leo · Sep 27, 2015

Another solid game. He did well inspite of Kaep trying to ruin things by throwing pick sixes early on. Oh yeah, Fitz is BACK!

ponchsox · Sep 27, 2015

I'd only rather have Brady right now, maybe Rodgers

SaintsInDome2006 · Sep 27, 2015

The offense looks great every single game out there, very smooth, fluid, good rhythm, very productive.

Ilov80s · Sep 27, 2015

ponchsox said:
I'd only rather have Brady right now, maybe Rodgers

and maybe TMobile

georg013 · Sep 27, 2015

TripItUp said:
love him as my QB2 or QB3

Excellent call here Trip

Ilov80s · Sep 27, 2015

He's been my QB1 all year. Drafted him and

georg013 said:
TripItUp said:

love him as my QB2 or QB3

Click to expand...

Excellent call here Trip

Took him as my QB1.

Ilov80s · Sep 28, 2015

How would we compare his value going forward with the big 3 of Brady, Rodgers, Luck? Are those guys big upgrades or is Palmer going to be able to stay on pace with them?

Shawn · Sep 28, 2015

Ilov80s said:
How would we compare his value going forward with the big 3 of Brady, Rodgers, Luck? Are those guys big upgrades or is Palmer going to be able to stay on pace with them?

Andrew Luck? more like Andrew Suck!

GroveDiesel · Sep 28, 2015

Ilov80s said:
How would we compare his value going forward with the big 3 of Brady, Rodgers, Luck? Are those guys big upgrades or is Palmer going to be able to stay on pace with them?

Luck is a total disaster right now. I'd stay away. He got away with a lot of ball that should have been intercepted the last couple of years. Seems like that offense is falling apart and Luck's luck ran out.

Shawn · Sep 28, 2015

GroveDiesel said:
Ilov80s said:

How would we compare his value going forward with the big 3 of Brady, Rodgers, Luck? Are those guys big upgrades or is Palmer going to be able to stay on pace with them?

Click to expand...

Luck is a total disaster right now. I'd stay away. He got away with a lot of ball that should have been intercepted the last couple of years. Seems like that offense is falling apart and Luck's luck ran out.

I feel bad for all the saps who took him in the first round!

Dinsy Ejotuz · Sep 28, 2015

Shawn said:
GroveDiesel said:

Ilov80s said:

How would we compare his value going forward with the big 3 of Brady, Rodgers, Luck? Are those guys big upgrades or is Palmer going to be able to stay on pace with them?

Click to expand...

Luck is a total disaster right now. I'd stay away. He got away with a lot of ball that should have been intercepted the last couple of years. Seems like that offense is falling apart and Luck's luck ran out.

Click to expand...

I feel bad for all the saps who took him in the first round!

That's funny -- it seems like you took the time to come to a football message board for no other reason than to call the people who took him in the 1st round saps.

Ilov80s · Sep 28, 2015

GroveDiesel said:
Ilov80s said:

How would we compare his value going forward with the big 3 of Brady, Rodgers, Luck? Are those guys big upgrades or is Palmer going to be able to stay on pace with them?

Click to expand...

Luck is a total disaster right now. I'd stay away. He got away with a lot of ball that should have been intercepted the last couple of years. Seems like that offense is falling apart and Luck's luck ran out.

Ok, besides Luck. How does Palmer compare to Rodgers and Brady going forward? How of an upgrade would you consider AR or TB over CP rest of the way? It certainly sounds a lot sexier to say Rodgers is my QB, but is it really going to be a big points gap week to week beween them?

Shawn · Sep 28, 2015

I don

wdcrob said:
Shawn said:

GroveDiesel said:

Ilov80s said:

How would we compare his value going forward with the big 3 of Brady, Rodgers, Luck? Are those guys big upgrades or is Palmer going to be able to stay on pace with them?

Click to expand...

Luck is a total disaster right now. I'd stay away. He got away with a lot of ball that should have been intercepted the last couple of years. Seems like that offense is falling apart and Luck's luck ran out.

Click to expand...

I feel bad for all the saps who took him in the first round!

Click to expand...

That's funny -- it seems like you took the time to come to a football message board for no other reason than to call the people who took him in the 1st round saps.

It's called sarcasm. I don't really feel bad for anyone who makes a bad fantasy choice, but it sure is fun to watch them tear up... Especially when they watch Carson Palmer outplay him week in and week out. someone who was on waivers in many leagues week1.

Ilov80s · Sep 28, 2015

Shawn said:
I don

wdcrob said:

Shawn said:

GroveDiesel said:

Ilov80s said:

How would we compare his value going forward with the big 3 of Brady, Rodgers, Luck? Are those guys big upgrades or is Palmer going to be able to stay on pace with them?

Click to expand...

Luck is a total disaster right now. I'd stay away. He got away with a lot of ball that should have been intercepted the last couple of years. Seems like that offense is falling apart and Luck's luck ran out.

Click to expand...

I feel bad for all the saps who took him in the first round!

Click to expand...

That's funny -- it seems like you took the time to come to a football message board for no other reason than to call the people who took him in the 1st round saps.

Click to expand...

It's called sarcasm. I don't really feel bad for anyone who makes a bad fantasy choice, but it sure is fun to watch them tear up... Especially when they watch Carson Palmer outplay him week in and week out. someone who was on waivers in many leagues week1.

As long as you enjoy watching the CJ Anderson, Jeremy Hill and Justin Forsett owners cry when they see Dion Lewis, Lance Dunbar and Karlos Williams outscore them each week.

SameSongNDance · Sep 28, 2015

I own Palmer in all 3 of my leagues but he's behind Brady in one. I only drafted him to be my QB1 in one league but grabbed him off the WW in the other two. I honestly couldn't believe he was still available in one league last week, I wanted to rid myself of Bradford so I blew 18% of my FAAB on him.

I honestly can't come up with a good reason he doesn't keep up this pace all year. Even in a blowout vs. SF, where game flow worked against him from the start, he still managed 32 pass attempts and 20 points. Fitz is playing at his highest level in three years, Brown is legit and the run game has seemingly improved from last year. I really like him moving forward as a top 6 QB.

Ilov80s · Sep 28, 2015

SameSongNDance said:
I own Palmer in all 3 of my leagues but he's behind Brady in one. I only drafted him to be my QB1 in one league but grabbed him off the WW in the other two. I honestly couldn't believe he was still available in one league last week, I wanted to rid myself of Bradford so I blew 18% of my FAAB on him.

I honestly can't come up with a good reason he doesn't keep up this pace all year. Even in a blowout vs. SF, where game flow worked against him from the start, he still managed 32 pass attempts and 20 points. Fitz is playing at his highest level in three years, Brown is legit and the run game has seemingly improved from last year. I really like him moving forward as a top 6 QB.

I think you have to be blind or stubborn to not have Palmer as a top 6 QB at this point. What I am more wondering is how big the gap is from him to the top? There are years where QB 1 and QB2 are 100+ points above QB 6. Is Palmer closer to the elite or closer to the mid level QB1s? I am just trying to assess value.

Biabreakable · Sep 28, 2015

Palmer considered a top 6QB for the rest of the year?

On the surface of it, sounds a bit crazy. I don't think I am stubborn or blind about the possibility either. I was one of the proponents of Palmer back when this thread started in 2013.

Here are the top QB after 3 weeks according to PFR sorted by VBD

5 Tom Brady NWE 38 3 3 96 133 1112 9 0 8 1 0.13 0 0 0 0 0 QB 79 31
8 Andy Dalton CIN 28 3 3 61 92 866 8 1 14 21 1.50 1 0 0 0 0 QB 71 23
11 Cam Newton CAR 26 3 3 56 99 685 5 2 31 144 4.65 2 0 0 0 0 QB 70 22
14 Tyrod Taylor BUF 26 3 3 58 78 714 7 3 17 96 5.65 1 0 0 0 0 QB 68 20
19 Carson Palmer ARI 36 3 3 56 88 803 9 2 6 13 2.17 0 0 0 0 0 QB 65 18
30 Marcus Mariota TEN 22 3 3 61 97 833 8 2 5 25 5.00 0 0 0 0 0 QB 60 12
37 Matt Ryan ATL 30 3 3 77 116 946 5 2 8 23 2.88 0 0 0 0 0 QB 58 10
40 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 33 3 3 67 89 912 4 2 1 -1 -1.00 0 0 0 0 0 QB 56 8
48 Russell Wilson SEA 27 3 3 71 101 692 4 2 24 137 5.71 0 0 0 0 0 QB 53 5
55 Ryan Tannehill MIA 27 3 3 78 127 882 5 3 7 23 3.29 0 0 0 0 0 QB 52 4
63 Derek Carr OAK 24 3 3 57 90 726 5 1 4 30 7.50 0 0 0 0 0 QB 50 2
74 Eli Manning NYG 34 3 3 70 108 764 4 0 3 31 10.33 0 0 0 0 0 QB 48 13
75 Blake Bortles JAX 24 3 3 57 106 698 5 3 9 60 6.67 0 0 0 0 0 QB 48 12
76 Philip Rivers SDG 34 3 3 77 103 891 5 4 3 3 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 QB 46 14
77 Andrew Luck IND 26 3 3 65 116 753 5 7 14 65 4.64 0 0 0 0 0 QB 45 17
78 Jameis Winston TAM 21 3 3 47 90 678 4 3 12 41 3.42 1 0 0 0 0 QB 45 16
79 Aaron Rodgers GNB 32 2 2 43 56 438 5 0 14 58 4.14 0 0 0 0 0 QB 45 15
80 Peyton Manning DEN 39 3 3 81 127 755 5 3 2 -2 -1.00 0 0 0 0 0 QB 44
81 Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 33 3 3 72 116 706 6 5 7 18 2.57 0 0 0 0 0 QB 44 18
82 Joe Flacco BAL 30 3 3 82 126 863 4 4 2 2 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 QB 43 20
83 Matthew Stafford DET 27 3 3 82 128 814 5 5 6 18 3.00 0 1 1 -6 -6.00 0 QB 42 22
84 Colin Kaepernick SFO 28 3 3 59 91 567 2 4 23 138 6.00 1 0 0 0 0 QB 42 21
85 Ryan Mallett HOU 27 3 2 59 110 570 3 2 3 11 3.67 1 0 0 0 0 QB 40 23
86 Nick Foles STL 26 3 3 54 87 644 2 1 6 22 3.67 1 0 0 0 0 QB 36 24
87 Kirk Cousins WAS 27 3 3 74 107 715 3 4 2 -1 -0.50 0 0 0 0 0 QB 35 25
88 Drew Brees NOR 36 2 2 54 86 610 2 2 2 2 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 QB 31 26
89 Sam Bradford PHI 28 3 3 73 117 678 3 4 5 7 1.40 0 0 0 0 0 QB 30 27
90 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 23 3 3 50 74 505 1 2 10 36 3.60 1 0 0 0 0 QB 30 28
91 Tony Romo DAL 35 2 2 54 72 551 3 2 2 11 5.50 0 0 0 0 0 QB 29 29
92 Alex Smith KAN 31 2 2 38 58 434 3 2 12 30 2.50 0 0 0 0 0 QB 28 30
95 Johnny Manziel CLE 23 2 1 21 39 354 3 1 8 36 4.50 0 0 0 0 0 QB 24 31
98 Jay Cutler CHI 32 2 2 26 45 345 2 2 7 55 7.86 0 0 0 0 0 QB 23

So far Palmer has played the Saints, Chicago and the 9ers. The Saints and Chicago are not good defenses and the 9ers are perhaps average. Palmer has more difficult games ahead.

I would expect Ryan, Wilson, Luck, Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Brees to outperform Palmer by the end of the season and for Brady and Cam Newton to stay ahead of him. So that places Palmer at 9. I could see some other QB such as Rivers or Eli also outperforming him. I am not sure if Tyrod Taylor can keep up all year but he is currently ahead of Palmer, maybe Dalton can stay ahead of him as well but I doubt that.

Anyhow I see him as about the same as a couple years ago and this offseason, around QB 10-18 who wont kill you against the better QB and be good enough to start while he is healthy aside from Seattle match ups and perhaps a few other games you might want to look elsewhere.

He could finish as top 6 QB in fantasy this year, but I bet it will be closer to 12 than 6.

Is Carson Palmer underrated? (1 Viewer)

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