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Pats Super Bowl odds have fallen from 14-1 to 20-1

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7 minutes ago, Tool said:

Pats Super Bowl odds have fallen from 14-1 to 20-1

Pretty good odds for a team with no QB :shrug:

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Just now, simsarge said:

Pretty good odds for a team with no QB :shrug:

Once James Develin is back everything will fall into place.

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Posted (edited)

Not surprisingly, the torch and pitchfork brigade is in full force in the media in Boston since yesterday. I don't know what to believe, so bear that in mind. Some people are reporting that TB has wanted out for awhile and REALLY wanted out since last year when he took the franchise tag out of play. There are conflicting reports over what happened last year, as some people are saying NE offered Brady a multi-year deal and he said no. Others are still suggesting Brady was the one that wanted a multi-year contract and NE said no.

The rumblings today are that Brady told NE he was leaving a long time ago and there wasn't much talk among the principals involved at all. Apparently there are some who paint the picture as Tom saying I'm outta here and that was that. In many ways it was a divorce. I don't think BB wanted him there, TB didn't want to be there, and they parted ways. I read this morning the bottom line was if TB wanted to be in NE, he'd be in NE and the Patriots would have made an effort to bring him back. But allegedly Tom said he wanted out so NE backed off and made little to no effort to convince him to stay.

The talking heads and writers are busy today rehashing who's to blame, and I don't really think that fits the profile. Like Gronk, Brady was not happy and had grown tired of the stranglehold BB has had on everything and everyone. IMO, BLAME should not even enter into the equation for a team that went to 9 SB's and won 6 of them.

Neither side is wrong. You can't blame Brady for being unhappy. And you can't blame BB for not wanting to give a 43-year-old QB a multi-year deal at $30 million a year. In today's NFL, Brady limits what an offense can do. There is no doubt he did great with what he had to work with, but BB tried to build a complete team from year to year. As much as Brady wanted more weapons, NE won their titles in years when their defense was near the top of the league. The years when they had killer offenses and weaker defenses, they may have won regular season games, but they didn't win titles. In what should have been Brady's peak window they didn't win. They went 10 years without a title in the prime of TB's career, which realistically is the most surprising thing in all of this.

We will continue to see opinions and articles how BB and Kraft messed this up and how dare they let Tom play in another uniform. In the end, I think it's best for the team to move on from Brady ,and it's best for Brady to move on from the team. Sure, it would have been nice to watch Brady and NE ride it out together, but much sooner than later Brady is going to start looking his age. I am sure there are plenty of people (myself included) that would have preferred that Brady retired, but that's not how it turned out. Brady's dad may end up being right . . . things ultimately could end badly for Tom (with his career ending on a bad injury). Let's hope that doesn't happen.

Now that Brady is gone, the next item on the naysayer's checklist is how stupid NE was for not keeping Jimmy G. This has been hashed out many times and in the interest of not wasting more time, that wasn't an option as they couldn't keep both TB and JG on the same roster. By many accounts, BB would have kept JG but they stuck with TB instead. They went to two SB's after trading Garoppolo, and who knows how things would have turned out had they stuck with JG.

Ultimately when the dust settles, I think BB will have made the right decision in not giving Brady the contract that the Buccaneers are going to give him. After 45 years of coaching, BB still knows how to coach and he's been the best there ever was at managing the salary cap. For those panicking and wondering how NE could proceed without a secession plan at QB post-Brady, all I can say is those people don't know BB. They have a plan. They always have a plan. And a Plan B. And a Plan C. That's how BB is.

Granted, it remains to be seen if that plan will work out, but I don't see the Patriots winning only 4 or 5 games like some folks are predicting / hoping / projecting. I have heard BB interviewed many times, and IMO he will coach another 5 years. He used to say he wouldn't coach as an old man, but when it comes up he has indicated he enjoys it more than ever, especially with some of the players and personalities they have had in recent years. He also said he doesn't have many other interests he likes enough to want to stop coaching, so I think he will stick around. Don't kid yourself, he will be extra motivated to win without Brady, and even with a weaker roster (if that's what they end up with), he could still out coach 25 other coaches in the league.

The sky is falling crowd will once again point to all the free agents that are going to get signed the next few days and will again call for BB's head. But Bill is going to be Bill, and they aren't going to make a splash in free agency (especially without any cap room). So history will show that NE let the GOAT walk . . . and filled his roster spot with WR and special teamer Damiere Byrd (formerly of the Cardinals). That is such a Bill Belichick move I can't even begin to describe it.

So a toast to the greatest run and the best QB-coach combo in history. In many ways, it's on par with the break between Lennon and McCartney and the end of The Beatles. BB and TB will always be joined at the hip, and anything they do apart moving forward won't change what they accomplished together.

:banned:

 

 

 

Edited by Anarchy99
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Posted (edited)

A

1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

Not surprisingly, the torch and pitchfork brigade is in full force in the media in Boston since yesterday. I don't know what to believe, so bear that in mind. Some people are reporting that TB has wanted out for awhile and REALLY wanted out since last year when he took the franchise tag out of play. There are conflicting reports over what happened last year, as some people are saying NE offered Brady a multi-year deal and he said no. Others are still suggesting Brady was the one that wanted a multi-year contract and NE said no.

The rumblings today are that Brady told NE he was leaving a long time ago and there wasn't much talk among the principals involved at all. Apparently there are some who paint the picture as Tom saying I'm outta here and that was that. In many ways it was a divorce. I don't think BB wanted him there, TB didn't want to be there, and they parted ways. I read this morning the bottom line was if TB wanted to be in NE, he'd be in NE and the Patriots would have made an effort to bring him back. But allegedly Tom said he wanted out so NE backed off and made little to no effort to convince him to stay.

The talking heads and writers are busy today rehashing who's to blame, and I don't really think that fits the profile. Like Gronk, Brady was not happy and had grown tired of the stranglehold BB has had on everything and everyone. IMO, BLAME should not even enter into the equation for a team that went to 9 SB's and won 6 of them.

Neither side is wrong. You can't blame Brady for being unhappy. And you can't blame BB for not wanting to give a 43-year-old QB a multi-year deal at $30 million a year. In today's NFL, Brady limits what an offense can do. There is no doubt he did great with what he had to work with, but BB tried to build a complete team from year to year. As much as Brady wanted more weapons, NE won their titles in years when their defense was near the top of the league. The years when they had killer offenses and weaker defenses, they may have won regular season games, but they didn't win titles. In what should have been Brady's peak window they didn't win. They went 10 years without a title in the prime of TB's career, which realistically is the most surprising thing in all of this.

We will continue to see opinions and articles how BB and Kraft messed this up and how dare they let Tom play in another uniform. In the end, I think it's best for the team to move on from Brady ,and it's best for Brady to move on from the team. Sure, it would have been nice to watch Brady and NE ride it out together, but much sooner than later Brady is going to start looking his age. I am sure there are plenty of people (myself included) that would have preferred that Brady retired, but that's not how it turned out. Brady's dad may end up being right . . . things ultimately could end badly for Tom (with his career ending on a bad injury). Let's hope that doesn't happen.

Now that Brady is gone, the next item on the naysayer's checklist is how stupid NE was for not keeping Jimmy G. This has been hashed out many times and in the interest of not wasting more time, that wasn't an option as they couldn't keep both TB and JG on the same roster. By many accounts, BB would have kept JG but they stuck with TB instead. They went to two SB's after trading Garoppolo, and who knows how things would have turned out had they stuck with JG.

Ultimately when the dust settles, I think BB will have made the right decision in not giving Brady the contract that the Buccaneers are going to give him. After 45 years of coaching, BB still knows how to coach and he's been the best there ever was at managing the salary cap. For those panicking and wondering how NE could proceed without a secession plan at QB post-Brady, all I can say is those people don't know BB. They have a plan. They always have a plan. And a Plan B. And a Plan C. That's how BB is.

Granted, it remains to be seen if that plan will work out, but I don't see the Patriots winning only 4 or 5 games like some folks are predicting / hoping / projecting. I have heard BB interviewed many times, and IMO he will coach another 5 years. He used to say he wouldn't coach as an old man, but when it comes up he has indicated he enjoys it more than ever, especially with some of the players and personalities they have had in recent years. He also said he doesn't have many other interests he likes enough to want to stop coaching, so I think he will stick around. Don't kid yourself, he will be extra motivated to win without Brady, and even with a weaker roster (if that's what they end up with), he could still out coach 25 other coaches in the league.

The sky is falling crowd will once again point to all the free agents that are going to get signed the next few days and will again call for BB's head. But Bill is going to be Bill, and they aren't going to make a splash in free agency (especially without any cap room). So history will show that NE let the GOAT walk . . . and filled his roster spot with WR and special teamer Damiere Byrd (formerly of the Cardinals). That is such a Bill Belichick move I can't even begin to describe it.

So a toast to the greatest run in and the best QB-coach combo in history. In many ways, it's on par with the break between Lennon and McCartney and the end of The Beatles. BB and TB will always be joined at the hip, and anything they do apart moving forward won't change what they accomplished together.

:banned:

 

 

 

Dead on...I think there are two crowds that will be most upset by this...one, media types like Felger and that complete fool Adam Jones who were gonna criticize whatever happened here because they have decided to earn a living based on the premise that Boston sports can do no right regardless of how much success any team has...the second (and largest) one is the pink hat brigade...this crew of bandwagoners have limited sports knowledge and only pay attention when the they feel like they are missing out on something...this crew has no idea who Matt Light, Daniel Graham or Duron Harmon is so the thought of TB12 not being here frightens them...the "real" fans understand that the fact this went on for 20 years and 6 titles is beyond unrealistic...that just doesn't happen, it is a sports fan's wet dream...to say we were blessed by this is just scratching the surface...for a city that has known mega-all time greats like Ted Williams, Red Auerbach, Bill Russell, Larry Bird, David Ortiz and especially Bobby Orr as well as another sports dynasty in the Celtics the true fans understand what you have just noted...be thankful it lasted far longer then it had any right to and be excited to see what BB can do in this next chapter of Pats history...it will never be the same without Brady but I feel pretty comfortable that the days of Zeke Mowatt, Tommy Hodson and Rod Rust aren't coming back either.

Edited by Boston
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10 minutes ago, Boston said:

Duron Harmon traded...they definitely got there money's worth out of him...he made some real big plays...for all the jokes about the Rutgers players they have done a good job for the Pats.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/03/18/lions-agree-to-trade-for-duron-harmon/

They flipped late round draft picks (not sure which ones), but NE gains $4.25 million in cap space. That should bring them to $13 million and change in cap space.

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59 minutes ago, Boston said:

Danny Shelton signs with Detroit...so far they have lost Brady, Collins, Van Noys, Karras and Shelton to free agency and Harmon via trade

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28920988/lions-agree-2-year-deal-danny-shelton

Stidham takes over for Brady. I will take abuse for this, but that could actually be an upgrade (not saying it ill, only suggesting it could).
Andrews takes back his center position where he excelled previously. That would be an upgrade (if he can still play).
Shelton (48% of snaps) and Harmon (67%) were decent pieces. But they had more DB's than they could play last season.
Collins and Van Noy will be tough to replace.

But this is where NE usually is the opening of free agency. The main difference is now Brady is one of the dearly departed.

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2 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Stidham takes over for Brady. I will take abuse for this, but that could actually be an upgrade (not saying it ill, only suggesting it could).
Andrews takes back his center position where he excelled previously. That would be an upgrade (if he can still play).
Shelton (48% of snaps) and Harmon (67%) were decent pieces. But they had more DB's than they could play last season.
Collins and Van Noy will be tough to replace.

But this is where NE usually is the opening of free agency. The main difference is now Brady is one of the dearly departed.

It is not just the main difference...it is the difference...Brady's play and salary allowed BB the GM to have flexibility that probably no other GM has ever had...he also had a ton of players willing to come here on cut-rate deals because #12 was the QB...that may not be the case anymore...I don't expect BB to totally revamp how he does things (and he shouldn't) but I also don't think it is business as usual...it is a new era.

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6 minutes ago, Boston said:

It is not just the main difference...it is the difference...Brady's play and salary allowed BB the GM to have flexibility that probably no other GM has ever had...he also had a ton of players willing to come here on cut-rate deals because #12 was the QB...that may not be the case anymore...I don't expect BB to totally revamp how he does things (and he shouldn't) but I also don't think it is business as usual...it is a new era.

Clearly life starts anew without Brady. The only thing I think gets a little overblown is "how little" Brady played for. Along the way, he opted for big upfront signing bonuses and would also convert salary to bonuses . . . making his actual yearly salary way lower than most quarterbacks. But his cap hits were way higher than his salary. At one point in one of the NE threads we (the figurative we) went over Brady's career and compensation vs. his peers. Over his 20 year career, I believe his actual "discount" worked out to $3 or 4 million a year. That certainly is nice to have to add a decent back up player or role player on the roster somewhere, but it is not the $15-20 million perceived savings each year that some folks talk about.

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How does this affect the running game? Burkhead a cap cut possibly as has been discussed for awhile? White downgraded it seems.

Any room open up for Damien Harris with a new look offense? 

Or same old relatively useless fantasy backfield ?

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11 minutes ago, Jacksonke1 said:

How does this affect the running game? Burkhead a cap cut possibly as has been discussed for awhile? White downgraded it seems.

Any room open up for Damien Harris with a new look offense? 

Or same old relatively useless fantasy backfield ?

Too soon to tell until we get a better idea of what they are going to do roster wise.

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I did chuckle at Rex Ryan today, who thinks NE made a huge mistake in letting Brady walk. His argument was the Pats were 12-4 and a win against MIA from earning a bye . . . and the guy that did that just walked out the door.

His other argument was bringing up the game in 2016 against Ryan's Bills when Buffalo won in NE 18-0. But he left out the part that NE was on their third string QB with Brady suspended and Jimmy G hurt. Jacoby Brissett tore ligaments in his throwing thumb and could barely hold onto the football that game. But THAT'S what we can expect from the Patriots offense without Brady.

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48 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Add Elandon Roberts to the Dolphins.

Things looking good in the comp department

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48 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Add Elandon Roberts to the Dolphins.

LB climbing up the ranks of needs now that free agency has hit...Roberts, Collins and Van Noys all gone.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Boston said:

Things looking good in the comp department

I am not totally sure, but I think the most NE can get is a 5th rounder for Brady (veteran with more than 10 years in the league). And a team can only get a max of 4 comp picks.

Edited by Anarchy99

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The day after, i'm pretty much feeling the same about Brady as i did the day before. A little sorrowful, a little relieved, no regrets. TB12 had earned the right to do whatever he wanted here or elsewhere. If he had made the slightest noise about genuinely wanting to close his career in New England, i woulda been pissed if they hadn't let him.  I'm also OK with BB not begging him to close it out here, because it keeps him true to what makes him great, too. Brady seemed to want to the blush of new experience, to be the belle of the ball somewhere else before it was all said and done more than to prove he could do it without the system. Belichick will be just as engaged in solving the problems of the post-Brady era as he would have been in putting the best team on the field, with the greatest possible plan & preparation, if Tommy had stayed. I have nothing in common with most Patriots fans because i was there for the 20 years Boston didn't want them and will be interested to see how faithful or fair-weather they become in the aftermath. The ball gets hiked, we score or dont, stop them or dont and we have considered every contingency in helping the best possible result occur. That's all i care about.

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Watching Early Edition and am marking down their prediction for next year. Brady in TB will get the Bucs +4 or +5 wins. So 11-12 wins. NE without Brady will mean -6 or -7 wins. So 5 or 6 wins. Will check back in January. 

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2 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Watching Early Edition and am marking down their prediction for next year. Brady in TB will get the Bucs +4 or +5 wins. So 11-12 wins. NE without Brady will mean -6 or -7 wins. So 5 or 6 wins. Will check back in January. 

Latest super bowl odds for both teams I saw was 20-1

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Nate Ebner to the Giants. Will be interesting to see how they rebuild the team, seeing how they are having a mass exodus.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Nate Ebner to the Giants. Will be interesting to see how they rebuild the team, seeing how they are having a mass exodus.

You know this one probably killed BB...Ebner was one of his binkies...the way they are going giving up that #2 for Sanu is not looking so good...they are hitting a bit of a reset button and they could really use that pick.

Edited by Boston

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15 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Watching Early Edition and am marking down their prediction for next year. Brady in TB will get the Bucs +4 or +5 wins. So 11-12 wins. NE without Brady will mean -6 or -7 wins. So 5 or 6 wins. Will check back in January. 

:lmao:

 

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With TB12 gone there is only one man who can save us ...bring back Ray Ventrone...Patriot nation turns it lonely eyes to you!

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:banned:

 

Cheers to Tom and Bill for a hell of a run, despite the infractions.

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Pats sign S Adrian Phillips formerly of the Chargers to a two year deal. His was first team All Pro in 2018 but spent most of last year on IR with a broken arm. Can also play LB and special teams. No financials available yet. 

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47 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Pats sign S Adrian Phillips formerly of the Chargers to a two year deal. His was first team All Pro in 2018 but spent most of last year on IR with a broken arm. Can also play LB and special teams. No financials available yet. 

Even though Harmon is gone the fact this guy can play LB means he could be more of a potential Chung replacement.

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10 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Pats sign S Adrian Phillips formerly of the Chargers to a two year deal. His was first team All Pro in 2018 but spent most of last year on IR with a broken arm. Can also play LB and special teams. No financials available yet. 

Sounds like someone that can cover TE's and RB's .... much needed.

Still several holes to fill tho.

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Posted (edited)

Can't say that I am surprised that BB is still getting flamed in the media for not bringing back TB12. Like beaten and bloodied. No one seems to point out that BB has coached in 10 Super Bowls and probably knows what he is doing. The huge majority of ex-Pats players over the years that moved on were not as productive elsewhere as they were in NE. Clearly people that have watched football for 20 years are better informed than someone that has coached it for 45 years.

I get it, Brady is a unicorn and all comparisons to anyone else in the past don't really apply. No doubt he has accomplished plenty. But I have heard discussions wondering if Tampa should be a co-favorite with the Chiefs to win the SB and that NE is now in the running for the top draft pick in 2021. Skip Bayless predicts 12 wins and Tampa representing the NFC in the SB this year AND next year. Have people gone mad? Oh wait . . . I forgot that toilet paper is now considered a rare commodity and hoarded by the masses. Never mind.

Edited by Anarchy99
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I am sure people don't really always mean what they say, but after listening to the fall of the house of NE over and over again the last couple of days, one thing that stuck out to me was the louder talking heads calling the NE defense trash, way overrated, and one of the worst in the league over the second half of the season.

That prompted me to look things up (not that it mattes much as the defense will look a lot different next year). The Patriots defense ranked 9th in points allowed over their final 8 games. Against the Titans in the playoffs, they allowed 14 points (before Brady threw a pick 6 with seconds to go). Put another way, in Games 9-16 they allowed fewer points than SFO (-44), SEA (-38), HOU (-33), TEN (-32), NOS (-21), and MIN (-7), all teams that made the playoffs.

Injuries and an offense that couldn't move the ball were the main problems. I still think the defense will ultimately be a strength . . . and we will have to see what they do to improve the offense.

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I posted in the Brady thread that rumors swirling today were that BB, Brady, and SF had agreed to a trade and Kraft nixed it and Jimmy G. got inserted in the deal instead. Apparently TB wanted out long ago. That was in 2017 and fractured the relationship of TB, BB, and Kraft. Allegedly. 

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On 3/18/2020 at 12:42 PM, Boston said:

Duron Harmon traded...they definitely got their money's worth out of him...he made some real big plays...for all the jokes about the Rutgers players they have done a good job for the Pats.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/03/18/lions-agree-to-trade-for-duron-harmon/

The deal turns out to be Harmon and a 7th for a 5th. 

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NE now sitting with $10 million in cap space for 2020. But $114 million in cap space for 2021.

😱

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13 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

NE now sitting with $10 million in cap space for 2020. But $114 million in cap space for 2021.

😱

It will be beyond interesting to see how they use that $114...due to some subpar drafting there really isn’t too much on the current roster you have to use it on...there a few guys like JC Jackson iwho will deserve a nice bump but next offseason is one they should be real active.

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1 minute ago, Boston said:

It will be beyond interesting to see how they use that $114...due to some subpar drafting there really isn’t too much on the current roster you have to use it on...there a few guys like JC Jackson iwho will deserve a nice bump but next offseason is one they should be real active.

Which brings up an interesting hypothetical. If the 2020 season never happens, would 2021 start fresh or would they honor everything as if it were 2020? Would there be another draft? Another round of free agency? Another round of compensatory picks?

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3 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Which brings up an interesting hypothetical. If the 2020 season never happens, would 2021 start fresh or would they honor everything as if it were 2020? Would there be another draft? Another round of free agency? Another round of compensatory picks?

It would get very complicated very fast

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On 3/20/2020 at 11:16 AM, Anarchy99 said:

I am sure people don't really always mean what they say, but after listening to the fall of the house of NE over and over again the last couple of days, one thing that stuck out to me was the louder talking heads calling the NE defense trash, way overrated, and one of the worst in the league over the second half of the season.

That prompted me to look things up (not that it mattes much as the defense will look a lot different next year). The Patriots defense ranked 9th in points allowed over their final 8 games. Against the Titans in the playoffs, they allowed 14 points (before Brady threw a pick 6 with seconds to go). Put another way, in Games 9-16 they allowed fewer points than SFO (-44), SEA (-38), HOU (-33), TEN (-32), NOS (-21), and MIN (-7), all teams that made the playoffs.

Injuries and an offense that couldn't move the ball were the main problems. I still think the defense will ultimately be a strength . . . and we will have to see what they do to improve the offense.

With Brady vs. Belichick now a real thing, I think Brady has a better chance of looking like the winner in the short term, having gone to a team with a ton of talent that just needs consistent QB play to be a playoff team, but he likely only has one or two years left, while Belichick strikes me as a guy who will coach for as long as his health allows him to do so, and I have no doubt that he will have the Patriots contending again sooner rather than later; it just might take a year or two depending on what he does at QB.  Even with Brady's decline last year, he was still better than what they are likely to get in 2020.

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Brian Hoyer back to NE. IMO, that probably means they are out on any other starting QBs that may be on the market.

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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

Brian Hoyer back to NE. IMO, that probably means they are out on any other starting QBs that may be on the market.

I hope they at least draft a legit prospect...a lot of issues are solved if Stidham is the real deal but I would hate to not have another possibility.

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1 hour ago, Boston said:

I hope they at least draft a legit prospect...a lot of issues are solved if Stidham is the real deal but I would hate to not have another possibility.

They would save another $910K by releasing Kessler. I would guess they would draft someone else, the question is will they try to make a move early and move up, hope someone falls to them, or wait and get a midround guy to develop.

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Colts are on the hook for $2 million of Hoyer’s $3 million salary. Rapoport suggesting NE done with free agents. Hoyer said to be in competition to start (which I think is just a way to motivate Stidham with very little chance the Pats would roll with Hoyer).  

LINK

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35 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

They would save another $910K by releasing Kessler. I would guess they would draft someone else, the question is will they try to make a move early and move up, hope someone falls to them, or wait and get a midround guy to develop.

Wish they still had that #2...with three #3's they would have even more flexibility.

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Posted (edited)

Gostkowski released. IIRC, they will save $3.5 million in cap space (while burning $1.2 million in dead cap money).

Edited by Anarchy99

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