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Damien Wiliams - RB - Oklahoma

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I don’t know that Hyde is a threat but how many times have we seen a RB emerge late in the previous season and be hailed as a high draft pick only to revert back to journeyman status the next year? 

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1 hour ago, Kwai Chang Caine said:

I don’t know that Hyde is a threat but how many times have we seen a RB emerge late in the previous season and be hailed as a high draft pick only to revert back to journeyman status the next year? 

A lot.  It happens. 

But it's lazy analysis to just ask that one question.

When was the last time you saw someone in kc emerge late in the previous season and be hailed as a high draft pick and do well the next year?  A couple years ago, with spencer ware. And until his injury he was still listed as the starter the next year. So there's precedent in kc, with andy reid, and it's very recent.  

When was the last time you saw a 29 year old running back with limited receiving skills go to his 4th team in two years where they rely heavily on pass catching from their backs and take the job from a good receiving rb?

When was the last time you saw a head coach, gm and offensive coordinator give someone an extension, say it's his job to lose, say they are the starter, and go to a 6th round pick or UDFA instead?  

How often do 6th round rbs fail to make an immediate impact? 

How often do UDFA rbs fail to make the team? 

Someone is going to buck a trend.  Why will it be williams? 

I mean obviously the chiefs organization repeatedly saying he's the starter helps. 

They had the opportunity to bring in Coleman cheap. They didn't try.  They had the opportunity to pay big money for bell but were never serious bidders.  They could have used a day one or two pick at rb, and didn't. 

He had over 600 total yards and 10 touchdowns in the final 6 games. How many backs had that kind of production in any 6 game stretch last year?  I'll have one relevant one - Hunt. His numbers were virtually identical to Hunt's. A little more receiving, a little less running, a slightly higher td pace.  

Another thing is he did this on about 14 runs per game.  He doesn't need 25 carries a game, although he had 25 against the colts and held up well.  So even if he shares some carries, the receiving work and touchdowns should keep his value up. 

He's not small and doesn't need to be replaced on the goal line.  He can catch sothey don't need to take him out on passing downs.  He converted two 4th and 1s in the playoffs so they don't need to take him out... well, ever.  Which is exactly how kc uses their backs.

But won't hyde get all the touchdowns?  I don't see why. 

Last year hyde rushed the ball 17 times inside his opponent's 10. He picked up 14 yards. He had 5 touchdowns. Williams had 10 touches for 15 yards and 6 touchdowns - better in every way. 

In his career hyde's got 77 touches for 134 yards and 25 touchdowns.  Williams has 28 times for 61 yards and 13 touchdowns. Again, better in every way.

Could one of the rookies take over? Absolutely.  But there are some hurdles. 

They have to overtake hyde and williams.  That should be easy though they're just JAGs. What else? 

They have to actually make the team. Not a guarantee for a 6th round pick or UDFA.

They have to earn actual game carries.  It's hard to do because reid doesn't give a lot of touches to his third rb. Ask williams, who had 3 rushes and 3 catches until he was forced into action.

They have to pass block.  I imagine that's fairly important when you have arguably the best young qb in the league.  Let's see what the scouting report on Darwin says 

Weaknesses

clearly on the low end of NFL-caliber from a size standpoint;

not particularly laterally athletic;

lacks the quickness necessary to beat elite speed on perimeter runs;

shows extremely little in terms of pass-blocking ability;

inconsistent react and adjust skills when running lanes close on him;

inexperience is a concern as he played just one year at FBS level.

Is that the guy who is going to unseat williams?  It doesn't sound good to me.

I'm usually one of the first guys to avoid the second half stud rb. I get it.  But looking at their options right now, i just don't see real competition for williams.  Maybe they bring someone in late like ajayi - but he doesn't fit the andy reid mold at all.  McCoy would be an interesting fit but i'm not sure kc trades for him or would be the highest bidder. And if williams starts i don't see any reason to think he'd be terrible.  He was a highly regarded prospect who slipped in the draft for reasons other than his production, he was in the starting mix in Miami every year with a bunch of other ok guys, he's an ok runner and plus receiver who looked really good in this offense last year.  I am a buyer at his current low price 

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1 hour ago, Kwai Chang Caine said:

I don’t know that Hyde is a threat but how many times have we seen a RB emerge late in the previous season and be hailed as a high draft pick only to revert back to journeyman status the next year? 

I'm not trying to be snarky but just having trouble wrapping my head around this.....who would be some examples....I'm kind of drawing a blank trying to think of one...

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21 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

I'm not trying to be snarky but just having trouble wrapping my head around this.....who would be some examples....I'm kind of drawing a blank trying to think of one...

Kevan barlow

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30 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

I'm not trying to be snarky but just having trouble wrapping my head around this.....who would be some examples....I'm kind of drawing a blank trying to think of one...

 

I’m not sure what people are seeing in Williams. This guy is a 27 yr old 5 year pro whose career high season to date has been 256 rushing yards, which was last year when he got literally forced into action. 

He was so run-of-the-mill that his high mark in carries in a game last year before Hunt got suspended was exactly 1 carry.  He couldn’t even find his way onto the field to give Hunt a slight breather before the suspension.  He was only forced into action at the end of last year where he had a couple of good games against suspect run Ds while running the best O in the NFL.  The Chiefs didn’t fair so well record-wise and total offense-wise when the only change in their O was going from Hunt at RB to Williams.

This guy is absolutely a candidate to have someone steal his job if that someone can show that they’re even mediocre.  If Hyde isn’t that guy, and at this point he may not be, then there is Thompson waiting and has the earmarks of being the type of RB that Reid loves.

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Found this doing recent research on Thompson - who I drafted.  Take it as you will.

 

https://lastwordonprofootball.com/2019/05/31/darwin-thompson-kansas-city-chiefs-ota-takeaways/

 

Anyone who watched the 2018 Chiefs knows that Damien Williams came on strong to finish the season. Stepping in for Kareem Hunt, the former Miami Dolphin recorded 256 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 50 carries, good for 5.1 yards-per-attempt. Additionally, he added 23 receptions for 160 yards and two touchdowns during the regular season. On paper, this was a fantastic production which should ensure job security.

However, the film tells a dramatically different story. Williams entered 2018 as a journeyman backup who never impressed during four years with the Dolphins. During his time in Miami, Williams recorded just 3.6 yards-per-carry on 133 attempts. This average is truly atrocious and made him one of the least efficient running backs in the league. His 2018 season truly came out of nowhere, and there are two explanations for his success. Either Andy Reid found a way to eliminate his flaws, or Williams was simply placed in the perfect situation.

A deeper dive in the numbers suggests the later. Teams were afraid of Patrick Mahomes’ ability to throw the ball and basically allowed Kansas City to run the ball at will. Williams faced just 6.4 men in the box per carry, which is well below the league average. Additionally, Williams ranked just 112th in yards created per carry, which obviously isn’t good. He simply couldn’t pick up any yardage aside from what the blocking provided.

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32 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

I’m not sure what people are seeing in Williams. This guy is a 27 yr old 5 year pro whose career high season to date has been 256 rushing yards, which was last year when he got literally forced into action. 

He was so run-of-the-mill that his high mark in carries in a game last year before Hunt got suspended was exactly 1 carry.  He couldn’t even find his way onto the field to give Hunt a slight breather before the suspension.  He was only forced into action at the end of last year where he had a couple of good games against suspect run Ds while running the best O in the NFL.  The Chiefs didn’t fair so well record-wise and total offense-wise when the only change in their O was going from Hunt at RB to Williams.

This guy is absolutely a candidate to have someone steal his job if that someone can show that they’re even mediocre.  If Hyde isn’t that guy, and at this point he may not be, then there is Thompson waiting and has the earmarks of being the type of RB that Reid loves.

FF= talent + opportunity....you can argue all you want about the talent but the opportunity is most defiantly there..... and when he had the opportunity last year it looked like it was a good fit for whatever talent you think he has or does not have....

fantasy doesn't really care about your backstory....

he is the RB1 on the best offense in the NFL....if people  think he is going to lose that job....fine....pass on him and move to the next guy on your list....

David and Joe have him currently at RB12....so its not like he is getting pimped as a top 5 guy or something....:shrug:

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1 hour ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Kevan barlow

lol...its funny cause that is the first and only guy I thought of....cause I remember him being probably the biggest swing and miss by the experts here at FBG when they pimped him like crazy and he sucked....but I really couldn't tell in quickly looking at his stats at pro football reference....which year was the "crazy 2nd half" year and then the sucky year....after his "big year" he still put up over 1,000 all purpose yards....and 7 TD's....so not sure if he was a good example of a second half wonder one year that sucked the next....?....or if he was just over hyped after his big year....I don't know...


 

 

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15 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

FF= talent + opportunity....you can argue all you want about the talent but the opportunity is most defiantly there..... and when he had the opportunity last year it looked like it was a good fit for whatever talent you think he has or does not have....

fantasy doesn't really care about your backstory....

he is the RB1 on the best offense in the NFL....if people  think he is going to lose that job....fine....pass on him and move to the next guy on your list....

David and Joe have him currently at RB12....so its not like he is getting pimped as a top 5 guy or something....:shrug:

No, but by your own words here he’s a RB who is being pimped by experts as a RB1 in a 12 team league.  This is a guy with a heavily stained resume, and if you look at my post above has some very skewed production from last season that could be very deceptive.

I’m not arguing about the opportunity.  That’s clear.  I’m discussing who will get the advantage of playing in that opportunity, and clearly my position is that Williams may not be the best candidate.  He’s not going to get the position by default like he did last season.

Edited by Bronco Billy

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12 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

I’m not arguing about the opportunity.  That’s clear.  I’m discussing who will get the advantage of playing in that opportunity, and clearly my position is that Williams may not be the best candidate.  He’s not going to get the position by default like he did last season.

thats cool....and I am assuming because of human nature that since you drafted Thompson you are going to be on the anti-Williams train....you want your pick to hit......so you will bring up all the Williams back story and what not as a way of justifying the pick....and that is fine...just like you will post the good stuff about Thompson and call him a guy Reid loves, and somebody else will post above how he sucks at blocking and protecting Mahomes will probably be a priority....you think Williams sucks, and that may really be the reason you drafted Thompson and you think Williams will lose the job....but he played well and all indications are it will be his job moving forward....many people like you will roll the dice that he loses the job, some won't....thats what makes this hobby so fun....

if he plays like he did last year....he won't be losing his job anytime soon unless Hyde all of a sudden turns into Priest Holmes and/or Thompson becomes Barry Sanders...

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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2 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

thats cool....and I am assuming because of human nature that since you drafted Thompson you are going to be on the anti-Williams train....you want your pick to hit......so you will bring up all the Williams back story and what not as a way of justifying the pick....and that is fine...just like you will post the good stuff about Thompson and call him a guy Reid loves, and somebody else will post above how he sucks at blocking and protecting Mahomes will probably be a priority....you think Williams sucks, and that may really be the reason you drafted Thompson and you think Williams will lose the job....but he played well and all indications are it will be his job moving forward....many people like you will roll the dice that he loses the job, some won't....thats what makes this hobby so fun....

 

Absolutely true.  I am biased, no question.  But that’s not because I drafted Thompson as a random dart throw - which you made clear in stating above. {ETA to clarify my meaning}

This ought to provide for some great preseason drama.  I’m looking forward to further discussions with you as we move into the season.

Edited by Bronco Billy

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I think all the KC backs are JAGs at this point but Williams is the most athletic JAG with a track record of success in the offense and likely the confidence of the team so I think that gives him a big leg up on everyone else short term. Long term, they probably draft someone better next year. 

Edited by Ilov80s

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Buying in redraft for sure...

In dynasty. If im a contender i might buy in season if needing a boost at rb to compete/win the title..otherwise....i would sell right now...his value wont be higher.....the darwin thing is cute an all but i doubt he is the long term answer at rb for kc

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11 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

Found this doing recent research on Thompson - who I drafted.  Take it as you will.

https://lastwordonprofootball.com/2019/05/31/darwin-thompson-kansas-city-chiefs-ota-takeaways/

Quote

A deeper dive in the numbers suggests the latter. Teams were afraid of Patrick Mahomes’ ability to throw the ball and basically allowed Kansas City to run the ball at will. Williams faced just 6.4 men in the box per carry, which is well below the league average. Additionally, Williams ranked just 112th in yards created per carry, which obviously isn’t good. He simply couldn’t pick up any yardage aside from what the blocking provided.

This makes sense because I knew Williams' prior history as journey man.  He capitalized his opportunity and his flaws will reveal this year.  I know Mahomes is due for negative regression (not major way) and not having Tyreek will hurt Chiefs' offense.  HC Reid always scheme his passing offense creatively to ensure open rushing lane for his RBs.   

 

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Coach Andy Reid confirmed the Chiefs want Damien Williams to be "the full-time starter for the year."

"He's taken that challenge," Reid continued. "He wants to do this thing. He's earned the right to be that guy. And now it's a matter of production. Ya gotta go do it." Following Kareem Hunt's release ahead of Week 13 last season, the Chiefs initially gave the No. 1 job to Spencer Ware. But Williams quickly established himself as the best back on the team. Williams scored 10 touchdowns over the final six games, including the playoffs, averaging 17.5 touches per contest. Some are of the belief Carlos Hyde is going to take a chunk of Williams' work this year. But Williams has done everything to earn a shot at sliding right into Hunt's old role as a do-it-all bell cow.

SOURCE: chiefs.com

Jul 10, 2019, 10:48 AM ET

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On 6/5/2019 at 10:59 AM, Stinkin Ref said:

he is the RB1 on the best offense in the NFL

He is the RB1 on the offense that was the best in the NFL last season. There is certainly no guarantee they will be the best offense this season. Hunt was a big part of it, and he is gone. Hill will likely be suspended for a non-trivial number of games. They have a new starting C and the RG returns after playing just the first 5 games last season. Mahomes and Kelce may have had career years last year that they will never repeat.

IMO Williams is likely to be the RB1, but I think he is going to disappoint most projections.

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He's gotten every endorsement possible and the Chiefs lack of high draft capital/FA investment portend RB1 potential. It ultimately comes down to risk profile acceptance/aversion. He looks like a guy going on about the round 2/3 turn. 

If I have to plant my flag on DWill, I'll take him in the third but not the second. Given that he has a wide range of outcomes but also a monster ceiling, if I can have two established, less risky propositions anchoring my squad, I'll deal with the elevated risk in the third round. 

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He seems to have passed the admissions test, but it’s hard shaking the feeling that he’s going to eventually falter as a full-time back. Not that Gase/Miami is something to base a lot on, but Williams wasn’t very effective there and passed up by Drake and Gore. And probably Ballage if Williams was still there last year.

Sometimes guys do well out of the gate but ultimately exposed, and I think it could very well be Williams this year.

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Why was he undrafted? not lack of talent (4.45 at 220lbs is very impressive) and very good hands IMO = no negative personal news since turning pro that I could find

Does he have miles/injury history? very few miles (equivalent of one workhorse season over a 5 yr span, only a dislocated shoulder in 2017 = no red flags

Can he be an every-down RB? built like the prototypical workhorse (5'11", 220), and a good pass-catcher = yes, he can

I wonder then, why such a low ADP?  Why can't he take over where he left off in 2018?  KC is fertile ground for RB1 production.  With his size/skill combo, he projects to be a true workhorse.  Personally, I don't really think there is a middle ground.  Either he will be a top 8 RB, or a complete bust who loses the gig.  Right now, I am leaning more towards stud, but will enjoy watching Hyde and company try to make an argument for themselves in the preseason.

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Just now, TheWinz said:

Why was he undrafted? not lack of talent (4.45 at 220lbs is very impressive) and very good hands IMO = no negative personal news since turning pro that I could find

Does he have miles/injury history? very few miles (equivalent of one workhorse season over a 5 yr span, only a dislocated shoulder in 2017 = no red flags

Can he be an every-down RB? built like the prototypical workhorse (5'11", 220), and a good pass-catcher = yes, he can

I wonder then, why such a low ADP?  Why can't he take over where he left off in 2018?  KC is fertile ground for RB1 production.  With his size/skill combo, he projects to be a true workhorse.  Personally, I don't really think there is a middle ground.  Either he will be a top 8 RB, or a complete bust who loses the gig.  Right now, I am leaning more towards stud, but will enjoy watching Hyde and company try to make an argument for themselves in the preseason.

He had some off the field issues at Oklahoma IIRC, which ultimately led to him being dismissed and going undrafted. 

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Just now, JoeJoe88 said:

He had some off the field issues at Oklahoma IIRC, which ultimately led to him being dismissed and going undrafted. 

You are correct - grades and failed drug tests

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46 minutes ago, zamboni said:

He seems to have passed the admissions test, but it’s hard shaking the feeling that he’s going to eventually falter as a full-time back. Not that Gase/Miami is something to base a lot on, but Williams wasn’t very effective there and passed up by Drake and Gore.

Gore and Williams were not in Miami at the same time.

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15 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Gore and Williams were not in Miami at the same time.

My bad - Drake then.

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4 minutes ago, zamboni said:

My bad - Drake then.

In fairness Drake was a second round pick and Williams was an UDFA so Drake getting more work shouldn't be shocking.

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39 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

In fairness Drake was a second round pick and Williams was an UDFA so Drake getting more work shouldn't be shocking.

True, although IIRC after Ajayi was traded to Philly, Williams had first crack at the job but was considerably outplayed by Drake and was relegated to 3rd down duties.

Edited by zamboni

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16 minutes ago, zamboni said:

True, although IIRC after Ajayi was traded to Philly, Williams had first crack at the job but was considerably outplayed by Drake and was relegated to 3rd down duties.

Actually, Williams started over Drake until he separated his shoulder, then Drake became the starter.

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On 7/10/2019 at 10:21 AM, Just Win Baby said:

He is the RB1 on the offense that was the best in the NFL last season. There is certainly no guarantee they will be the best offense this season. Hunt was a big part of it, and he is gone. Hill will likely be suspended for a non-trivial number of games. They have a new starting C and the RG returns after playing just the first 5 games last season. Mahomes and Kelce may have had career years last year that they will never repeat.

IMO Williams is likely to be the RB1, but I think he is going to disappoint most projections.

I’m not sure if the news on Hill changes this 7/10/19 post....and/but they also added one of the most explosive players in the draft

After all that...if you think Williams will be the RB1 in KC....I’m not sure how you can say he will disappoint....he showed (for a good chunk of time, not just a couple weeks).....what he can do in this offense....IMO...he may be seriously undervalued right now....I’m not sure people are really factoring in how good this offense/QB/coaching staff are....WILLAMS IS GOING TO BE IN THE RED ZONE A LOT...he has shown what he can do....I have no problem with him anchoring my RB squad....he is is going to trip himself into double digit TD’s and a ton of big chunk running plays with teams backing off...

I for one will be one of those guys hoping to capitalize on all the “Mahomes regression” ....they can’t be that good again noise....give me every piece of the KC pie I can get....

 

 

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15 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

I’m not sure if the news on Hill changes this 7/10/19 post....and/but they also added one of the most explosive players in the draft

After all that...if you think Williams will be the RB1 in KC....I’m not sure how you can say he will disappoint....he showed (for a good chunk of time, not just a couple weeks).....what he can do in this offense....IMO...he may be seriously undervalued right now....I’m not sure people are really factoring in how good this offense/QB/coaching staff are....WILLAMS IS GOING TO BE IN THE RED ZONE A LOT...he has shown what he can do....I have no problem with him anchoring my RB squad....he is is going to trip himself into double digit TD’s and a ton of big chunk running plays with teams backing off...

I for one will be one of those guys hoping to capitalize on all the “Mahomes regression” ....they can’t be that good again noise....give me every piece of the KC pie I can get....

Yes, knowing Hill won't be suspended takes away one of the deltas in comparison to last season.

I still think the KC offense will regress somewhat, and I suspect Williams will disappoint those who think he will be a top 10 fantasy RB. FantasyPros consensus rankings have him ranked #13 right now in PPR. I think that's about right, so those with that level of expectation should be fine.

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1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

Yes, knowing Hill won't be suspended takes away one of the deltas in comparison to last season.

I still think the KC offense will regress somewhat, and I suspect Williams will disappoint those who think he will be a top 10 fantasy RB. FantasyPros consensus rankings have him ranked #13 right now in PPR. I think that's about right, so those with that level of expectation should be fine.

I checked out how RBs finished in one of my PPR leagues last year and there was a 12-point difference between RB9 and RB12.  31 points between RB8 and RB13.  The back end of the RB1 group should be clustered similarly this year, and it's not a stretch to say that any of those guys could or couldn't be in the top 10. 

Bottom line, even if you think he's rightly placed at RB13, he's well in the mix of guys who could finish anywhere from about RB6 to RB20.  Take the guy you like or believe in the most.

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27 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I checked out how RBs finished in one of my PPR leagues last year and there was a 12-point difference between RB9 and RB12.  31 points between RB8 and RB13.  The back end of the RB1 group should be clustered similarly this year, and it's not a stretch to say that any of those guys could or couldn't be in the top 10. 

Bottom line, even if you think he's rightly placed at RB13, he's well in the mix of guys who could finish anywhere from about RB6 to RB20.  Take the guy you like or believe in the most.

Agreed.

 

I mean, I understand people saying the Chiefs offense is likely to regress, and perhaps so.  But how much worse do you really think it's going to be?  Mahomes is in his second full year, so he's only going to get better(scary thought).  Hill, the most dangerous player in the NFL, is still on the team and will miss no time.  They still have arguably the best TE in football dominating the middle of the field.  Damien is going to be looking at soft boxes essentially every drive.  Unless you just really don't believe in the player and that he's going to hang on to the job, I don't see any scenario outside of injury where he finishes outside the top 10.

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1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

I checked out how RBs finished in one of my PPR leagues last year and there was a 12-point difference between RB9 and RB12.  31 points between RB8 and RB13.  The back end of the RB1 group should be clustered similarly this year, and it's not a stretch to say that any of those guys could or couldn't be in the top 10. 

Bottom line, even if you think he's rightly placed at RB13, he's well in the mix of guys who could finish anywhere from about RB6 to RB20.  Take the guy you like or believe in the most.

In any discussion of rankings, IMO ppg > total points. I assume one reason for the narrow spreads you are citing is missed games by some of those players. What was the spread of ppg from RB9 to RB15, with a reasonable threshold of games played? (I would check one of my dynasty leagues but MFL is blocked at my company.)

I'm saying I expect he will be around RB13 in ppg.

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54 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Agreed.

 

I mean, I understand people saying the Chiefs offense is likely to regress, and perhaps so.  But how much worse do you really think it's going to be?  Mahomes is in his second full year, so he's only going to get better(scary thought).  Hill, the most dangerous player in the NFL, is still on the team and will miss no time.  They still have arguably the best TE in football dominating the middle of the field.  Damien is going to be looking at soft boxes essentially every drive.  Unless you just really don't believe in the player and that he's going to hang on to the job, I don't see any scenario outside of injury where he finishes outside the top 10.

Keep in mind, it isn't just injury to him that could create a problem. Every player you named could get injured, as could the OL, etc. Their offense was generally very healthy last season.

I also think they face a more difficult schedule this season. All of these teams could have top 5-10 defenses: LAC x 2, JAX, BAL, IND, HOU, MIN, TEN, NE, CHI. KC plays 10 games against that group, and 8 of those games are against teams that played KC last season and may be better prepared to deal with the KC offense.

:shrug: 

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29 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

In any discussion of rankings, IMO ppg > total points. I assume one reason for the narrow spreads you are citing is missed games by some of those players. What was the spread of ppg from RB9 to RB15, with a reasonable threshold of games played? (I would check one of my dynasty leagues but MFL is blocked at my company.)

I'm saying I expect he will be around RB13 in ppg.

It's not very far off of what I reported for points scored.

RB10-RB17 was a spread of 2.4 ppg

RB10-RB23 was 3.7 ppg

There was asignificant jump between RB9 and RB10 (1.8 ppg), and a more substantial one between RB8 and RB9 (3.4 ppg).

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17 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

In any discussion of rankings, IMO ppg > total points. I assume one reason for the narrow spreads you are citing is missed games by some of those players. What was the spread of ppg from RB9 to RB15, with a reasonable threshold of games played? (I would check one of my dynasty leagues but MFL is blocked at my company.)

I'm saying I expect he will be around RB13 in ppg.

Hunt's PPG for 11 games was 20.93.  Williams was 19.14 for his 5 starts.  In comparison to the actual top 10 finishers...

RB3 - Gurley - 14 games - 26.29 PPG

RB1 - CMC - 16 games - 24.25 PPG

RB2 - Barkley - 16 games - 23.99 PPG

RB4 - Kamara - 15 games - 23.21 PPG

RB8 - Gordon - 12 games - 22.63 PPG

RB5 - Zeke - 15 games - 22.08 PPG

RB6 - Conner - 13 games - 21.54 PPG

RB10 - Mixon - 14 games - 17.39 PPG

RB7 - White - 16 games - 17.29 PPG

RB9 - DJ - 16 games - 15.54 PPG

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Part of me wonders if Damien's sample size is still on the small-ish side.  Five games as a starter with the Chiefs, three regular season and two playoffs.  69 carries, 28 targets.  His numbers extrapolated to 16 games come out to be 1830 total yards, 76 catches, 25 TD.

At face value, I'd automatically say TD regression is coming.  But it's Mahomes and the Chiefs.  Leaves me unsure.  I feel like I'm still leaning toward regression.

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2 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

Keep in mind, it isn't just injury to him that could create a problem. Every player you named could get injured, as could the OL, etc. Their offense was generally very healthy last season.

I also think they face a more difficult schedule this season. All of these teams could have top 5-10 defenses: LAC x 2, JAX, BAL, IND, HOU, MIN, TEN, NE, CHI. KC plays 10 games against that group, and 8 of those games are against teams that played KC last season and may be better prepared to deal with the KC offense.

:shrug: 

:goodposting:

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3 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

I also think they face a more difficult schedule this season. All of these teams could have top 5-10 defenses: LAC x 2, JAX, BAL, IND, HOU, MIN, TEN, NE, CHI.

Williams played 4 of those teams - LAC, BAL, IND, NE. He had 20 receptions, 403 yards and 8 touchdowns in those 4 games, one of which he didn't even start.  He had three touchdown in one quarter against the new England defense that held the rams out of the end zone the entire superbowl.

I'm not suggesting that he'll average 5 catches, over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns against all of those tough defenses - just that he actually did average 5 catches, over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns against every one of them that he faced.  

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Honestly the way Wiliams performed last year in that offense makes me seriously question HUNT’S talent.  We know who williams is: an average solid nfl rb.  Committee talent.  But that Andy Reid System with those surrounding weapons will make most RBs look like the next zeke.   

I am very curious to see what comes with Hunt in a new system on another team.  I don’t think he’s as good as we thought.  

As for williams this year, as long as he retains the lead role in that offense he will be a stud.  

Edited by rickyg
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2 hours ago, rschroeder1 said:

Part of me wonders if Damien's sample size is still on the small-ish side.  Five games as a starter with the Chiefs, three regular season and two playoffs.  69 carries, 28 targets.  His numbers extrapolated to 16 games come out to be 1830 total yards, 76 catches, 25 TD.

At face value, I'd automatically say TD regression is coming.  But it's Mahomes and the Chiefs.  Leaves me unsure.  I feel like I'm still leaning toward regression.

Well, if he put up those numbers they'd be top 10 running back numbers.  Not just this season, top ten all time. That's better than Gurley's fully healthy pace.  I don't think it's realistic to project anyone to put up that kind of production.  

Of course 6 games is a small sample size.  In a 16 game season the chiefs could easily return 3 picks for touchdowns and his season averages would go down.  You have to project some regression.  

But you can still use a sample size. 

You can project volume.  Will he get 25 carries a game like he did vs indy? Probably not.  Will he get zero carries week 1 like he did last year? Probably not.  

You can compare his performance from game to game.  He consistently got double digit rushing attempts and close to 5 catches.  Is that reasonable?

His high water mark for rushing attempts was 25 and low was 10. His average was 13.8 in the 5 games he started 10, 10, 11, 13, and 25.  The average is 13.8. Throw out the high and low numbers and he averages 12. The mean median and mode are all pretty similar. 

His high water mark for receptions was 7, and low was 1. His other games were 4, 5, 5 and 6. His average was 4.7. Take out the high and low and he averages 5.0. The mean, median and mode are really consistent. 

How did his numbers compare with Hunt?  His per game averages were extremely similar.  Slightly fewer rushing attempts, slightly better receiving/ scoring. It's not enough to say "he will always do exactly what hunt did", but it is a good sanity check that those numbers are sustainable.  

What kind of numbers should i expect? 

13.8 carries is not an unreasonable number for a starting back.  

He rushed for well over 4.5 yards a carry, but on a small sample size. 

If he averages 13.8 carries a game, times 4.5 per carry, times 16 games - that's almost exactly 1000 yards rushing.  Let's call the over/ under 941 or so. 

He had at least 4 receptions in every game except Oakland, and averaged 5 a game.  Let's call the over/under 50. 

He averaged well over a touchdown a game, but let's be realistic.  That pace isn't sustainable.  I don't think you should project him for fewer than 10 touchdowns on the season, though, considering he had 10 in 6 games last year.  

I think an over/under of 941 rushing yards, 50 catches and 10 touchdowns seems reasonable. I am probably inclined to take the over on touchdowns.  Ii might take the over on receiving and the under on rushing. But that's not the point.  

You know who had 941 rushing yards, 50 receptions and 10 touchdowns last year?  David Johnson.

Is there bust risk?  Of course.  But there's also a ton of touchdown upside, considering he had ten touchdowns in 6 games last year.  He's one of about 15 guys i think could be a top 5 fantasy back this year - a list that includes guys like dalvin cook and Aaron Jones who have at least as much risk.  I'll take as many guys from that list as i can.  

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14 hours ago, bostonfred said:

Williams played 4 of those teams - LAC, BAL, IND, NE. He had 20 receptions, 403 yards and 8 touchdowns in those 4 games, one of which he didn't even start.  He had three touchdown in one quarter against the new England defense that held the rams out of the end zone the entire superbowl.

I'm not suggesting that he'll average 5 catches, over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns against all of those tough defenses - just that he actually did average 5 catches, over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns against every one of them that he faced.  

NE tends to focus on the best playmaker on the other team and take him out of the equation.  Williams doing this tells me that the Patriots weren't worried about him. 

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Hyde listed in this article  of "notable players that could be traded/released".  Not much to back up the claim however.

 

Quote

Carlos Hyde, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: Given $700,000 guaranteed when he signed with the Chiefs, Hyde is a boom-or-bust fantasy pick. The Chiefs swear that Damien Williams is their starter and Hyde is his likely backup, but two previous teams have already soured on Hyde quicker than expected.

 

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I believe Hyde is the backup, but I'm happy to get him absurdly late in the event Williams falters or is hurt.

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3 hours ago, Gally said:

NE tends to focus on the best playmaker on the other team and take him out of the equation.  Williams doing this tells me that the Patriots weren't worried about him. 

I'd guess this will be the case again in 2019.  Mahomes/Hill/Kelce will continue to be the focus for most Ds.

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Was doing ESPN mocks this morning and was kind of shocked to see DWill as 44. I’m reaching for both at pick #3 in the 3rd round but I don’t have a 4th or 5th round pick so I’m thinking either DWill or Jacobs at this spot. I think DWill retains the lead role but I love Thompson so will be picking him up regardless of whether I pick DWill or not. 

Jacobs is a big risk but I just have a feeling he is gonna be one of the top 5 workhorses in the league. Cadillac #2. 

There were a few times Chubb and Gurley fell that far and if that happens that would make it really difficult. I know almost everyone would say Chubb but I’m not as high on him as most. And Gurley - man who knows with that knee. Hard to pull the trigger on so much uncertainty. I still think DWill is the safest of those 4. 

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TOM MARTIN 

@TomKCTV5

Damien Williams and Jordan Lucas did not finish practice due to hamstring injuries #Chiefs

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Damien Williams (hamstring) did not practice Monday.

Williams left Sunday's practice early because of a hamstring injury and was not able to practice on Monday. There is no indication at this point Williams is dealing with a long-term issue, but soft-tissue injuries have a tendency to linger. Williams will be Kansas City's No. 1 back if he is healthy.

SOURCE: Matt Derrick on Twitter

Jul 29, 2019, 9:49 AM ET

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