I think Sigmund Bloom nailed this. Good reading.
Just my opinion.
Swamp....
Before we begin the rankings, the most important strategy tip is to take strong positions on a group of 1-2 teams on each side of the bracket. Spreading your top 10 picks out on 6-7 teams is a losing strategy. At the end of your playoff fantasy draft, you want to see two or three potential matchups in the Super Bowl that should equal a high chance of winning for you. You might not be able to pick the exact teams that you want, but it is important to roll with the flow of the draft. If you wanted Brady, but had to settle for Peyton, then you are going to favor Broncos over Patriots for the rest of your draft. Much more than a typical fantasy draft, your early picks should dictate the mid and late parts of your draft.
quarterbacks1.
Tom Brady - NE
2.
Russell Wilson - SEA
Both are the most likely to play three games and the Super Bowl and be very productive along the way. Probably gone in the top 3-4 of every draft.
3.
Aaron Rodgers - GB
4.
Peyton Manning - DEN
Rodgers should be great for the divisional round, but a trip to Seattle for the Conference Championship could be rough. Manning could easily be one and done, and not put up great numbers in the process. If you don't have a strong belief in either of these teams, take a non-QB core piece of a team you believe in instead.
5.
Tony Romo - DAL
6.
Ben Roethlisberger - PIT
7.
Cam Newton - CAR
8.
Andrew Luck - IND
Your favorites in the wild card round, and all of them are set up for fantasy success. They are roughly ranked by my confidence level in them winning this weekend, but I'm open to bumping Luck to the top of the tier on his jackpot potential as even a two-start QB. Romo or Roethlisberger could easily get hot and make a three or four game run, and Newton would have a puncher's chance in Seattle or Green Bay along with the luxury of facing a banged up
Drew Stanton or
Ryan Lindley this weekend. I have the lowest confidence in the Colts, although they did thump the Bengals in the first meeting, and
Andy Dalton.
9.
Matthew Stafford - DET
10.
Joe Flacco - BAL
11.
Andy Dalton - CIN
12.
Ryan Lindley/
Drew Stanton - ARI
These are your starters that are likely one and done, but could always pull off a road upset to extent their lives and productivity. If you get one of the four bye QBs, ideally you can pair two wild card quarterbacks that are playing each other so you know at least one will advance to the second round. Stafford has the highest wild card round ceiling, but maybe the lowest chance to advance. Flacco has a decent chance to advance and a good matchup, but his play has been very uneven lately. Dalton had the worst game of his career in Indianapolis earlier this year, but he has an even better chance of advancing than Flacco does. The Cardinals starter (monitor the reports this week) has a very low fantasy ceiling for this weekend, and would probably go to Seattle if they can somehow win.
13.
Matt Flynn - GB
14.
Jimmy Garoppolo - NE
15.
Tarvaris Jackson - SEA
In a 20 roster spot, six team draft, you have a few spots at the end to throw a hail mary. Flynn is a good Rodgers handcuff or Wilson hedge because Rodgers isn't 100%. Garoppolo or Jackson could play in a blowout win or if the starter gets hurt, and both are on Super Bowl favorites. The one of Stanton and Lindley that is not named the starter goes here too.
running backs1.
Marshawn Lynch - SEA
A stud producer at a difficult position to get points from on a Super Bowl favorite. Wouldn't blame you if you took him #1 overall.
2.
Eddie Lacy - GB
3. Demarco Murray - DAL
4. CJ Anderson - DEN
I won't argue vigorously against reordering this trio. All are likely to play at least two games, any could be in the Super Bowl, and all are hot entering the playoffs. I like Lacy the best because the Packers have been feeding him 25+ touches at times lately, and they'll be even more encouraged to with
Aaron Rodgers balky leg. Murray is amazing and could easily be the key to winning playoff fantasy drafts, especially if you can pair him with Romo or Bryant later. Anderson has been hoovering up touchdowns for the Broncos and has the potential to justify his draft pick in just one game against the weak Steelers or Colts defenses.
5.
LeGarrette Blount - NE
Jonas Gray is banged up and this is Blount's time of year. Just look at how the Patriots used him in the playoffs last year.
6.
Jeremy Hill - CIN
Hill is going to be a great value pick in playoff drafts. He could easily put up 20+ in a loss to the Colts and provide plenty of payoff on a pick in the fifth round or later on that game alone. If the Bengals can win, they will do it by running Hill a ton, and they will likely try that again until it fails.
7.
Shane Vereen - NE
Vereen has been underwhelming this year, but if he plays three games, he could allow you to make up gaps on opponents in the last two rounds of the playoffs.
8.
LeVeon Bell - PIT
I have no idea what to do with Bell. There is a chance that he surprises us and looks like 80-90% of his normal self this weekend. If he even produces at 50% of his normal self this weekend in a win, he'll be easily worth a third round pick. The Steelers could hold him out in hope of a better performance in the divisional round and more gas in the tank for the rest of the playoffs, which would make Bell a jackpot pick if they can win and then a closer to 100% Bell gets rolling against the Broncos in a win. Bell could also be a shadow of himself and ineffective, even if the Steelers passing game carries him a round or two. You'll probably have to make this decision before you get good information. I'd err on the side of passing in the top 15 or so, and maybe a lot longer.
9.
Justin Forsett - BAL
Forsett could have a huge game against the Steelers, maybe even in a win. A great mid-round value pick.
10.
Jonathan Stewart- CAR
Stewart has a rough matchup to open the playoffs, and will likely go to Seattle if Carolina wins. He could be productive via volume, but the outlook is dim.
11.
Joique Bell - DET
Don't overlook Bell because he's likely one and done. That "one" could be enough to account for 1/4 to 1/3 of your RB scoring.
12.
Robert Turbin - SEA
13.
Christine Michael - SEA
14.
Jonas Gray - NE
15.
James Starks - GB
16.
Ronnie Hillman - DEN
17.
Joseph Randle - DAL
None of this group has a great week-to-week outlook without an injury, but they are all more likely than not to play multiple games, if not all the way to end. They are also all capable backs who can produce well if the starter does go down.
18.
Giovani Bernard - CIN
19.
Daniel Herron - IND
One of these two backs is going to play two games (or more) and they have a decent weekly ceiling, especially in PPR. If you can take both at the turn, you've done well with your RB Depth/Flex option.
20.
Reggie Bush - DET
Bush is likely one and done but could have a very nice game on the Jerryworld turf in a catchup game script. He's a great back to take if you spend one or two high picks on running backs with byes.
21.
John Kuhn - GB
22.
Trent Richardson - IND
23. Josh Harris - PIT
24.
Dri Archer - PIT
25.
Lance Dunbar - DAL
26.
Mike Tolbert - CAR
Any of these guys could notch a surprise touchdown and play two or more games for you. Kuhn is an old good luck charm of mine in playoff drafts, Richardson still has some loyalty from the Colts, Harris and Archer might get more work than you think with Bell ailing, Dunbar is explosive and Tolbert is Carolina's Kuhn.
27.
Theo Riddick - DET
28.
Kerwynn Williams - ARI
29.
Stepfan Taylor - ARI
30.
DeAngelo Williams - CAR
31.
Bernard Pierce - BAL
The chances of a deep playoff run - or even two games - might be small, but any of these backs could come through with 10 point performance in the first round to help with shaky wild card running back depth.
32.
Brandon Bolden - NE
33.
James White - NE
34.
James Develin - NE
35. Will Tukuafu - SEA
Every chip you can have on the Patriots or Seahawks helps.
36.
DuJuan Harris - GB
37.
Fozzy Whittaker - CAR
38.
Marion Grice - ARI
39.
Juwan Thompson - DEN
40.
Zurlon Tipton - IND
41.
Ryan Hewitt - CIN
42.
Will Johnson - PIT
43. Kyle Juszcyzk - BAL
44.
Jed Collins - DET
45.
Jeremy Stewart - DEN
46.
Rex Burkhead - CIN
47.
Cedric Peerman - CIN
48.
Robert Hughes - ARI
49.
Fitzgerald Toussaint - BAL
50.
George Winn - DET
wide receivers1.
Dez Bryant - DAL
2.
Jordy Nelson - GB
3.
Antonio Brown - PIT
4.
Demaryius Thomas - DEN
5.
Randall Cobb - GB
6.
Julian Edelman - NE
7.
Brandon LaFell - NE
8.
Emmanuel Sanders - DEN
There is a breathtaking amount of wide receiver talent in the playoffs. These rankings are very fluid, with a bigger role given to your beliefs about the team prospects than the receiver because the talent level is so high - with the exception of the New England duo, which move up if you go Brady or Gronk in the first to solidify your position on the Patriots. Any of the top five listed could be the highest scoring wide receiver in the playoffs with only two games played.
9.
Calvin Johnson - DET
10.
A.J. Green - CIN
11. TY Hilton - IND
12.
Doug Baldwin - SEA
13.
Torrey Smith - BAL
14.
Steve Smith - BAL
This tier is mostly likely one-off players, but with a very high ceiling in that one game and jackpot potential if they get surprise road wins. Hilton's team is a favorite, but his hamstring could be an issue. Baldwin doesn't have a high weekly ceiling, but you might want to forgo a big wild card weekend performer to get a nice-sized chip to put on the Seattle passing game.
15.
Martavis Bryant - PIT
16.
Kelvin Benjamin - CAR
17.
Jermaine Kearse - SEA
18.
Paul Richardson - SEA
19.
Golden Tate - DET
20.
Markus Wheaton - PIT
21.
Terrance Williams - DAL
22.
Michael Floyd - ARI
This tier is a potpourri of boom/bust wild card performers with a decent chance of multiple games, a couple of upside plays in Week 1 that are underdogs, and Kearse/Richardson, another chance to get a piece of Seattle or fortify an early Lynch/Wilson pick.
23.
Davante Adams - GB
24.
Danny Amendola - NE
25.
Wes Welker - DEN
26.
Reggie Wayne - IND
None of these players will have difference-making stat lines, but they have multi-game potential and help strengthen a position on the team later in your draft.
27.
Cole Beasley - DAL
28.
Ricardo Lockette - SEA
29.
Jerricho Cotchery - CAR
30.
Philly Brown, CAR
31.
Donte Moncrief - IND
This group has multi-game potential and they all have touchdown or big play potential in those games despite limited targets.
32.
Larry Fitzgerald - ARI
33.
Mohamed Sanu - CIN
34.
Hakeem Nicks - IND
It feels weird to have Fitzgerald so low after he dominated the 2009 playoffs, but
Ryan Lindley. Sanu could be a surprise performer and play multiple games. Nicks has a low ceiling, but could get a lot of targets if Wayne and Hilton are ailing.
35.
Kevin Norwood - SEA
36.
Brian Tyms - NE
37.
Cody Latimer - DEN
38.
Andre Caldwell - DEN
39.
Josh Boyce - NE
40.
Jarrett Boykin - GB
They're way down on the depth chart, but remember David Tyree? A chance to get another blind dart throw for the later rounds.
41.
Kamar Aiken - BAL
42.
Marlon Brown - BAL
43.
John Brown - ARI
44.
Jaron Brown - ARI
45.
Ted Ginn - ARI
46.
Brandon Tate - CIN
47.
Jacoby Jones - BAL
48.
Corey Fuller - DET
49. Michael Campanero - BAL
50.
Jeremy Ross - DET
Some hail marys to fill out a weak wild card week WR corps.
tight ends1.
Rob Gronkowski - NE
Just like in the regular season, almost an unfair advantage
2.
Jason Witten - DAL
3.
Greg Olsen - CAR
4.
Heath Miller - PIT
5.
Coby Fleener - IND
Good first round matchups and chances of playing more than one game.
6.
Julius Thomas - DEN
Has been a shadow of himself lately, but still a premium TE pick in a thin group.
7.
Luke Willson - SEA
Big play potential and a good shot at playing in the Super Bowl.
8.
Andrew Quarless - GB
9.
Richard Rodgers - GB
Will come cheap and could be reasonably productive for multiple games.
10.
Jermaine Gresham - CIN
11.
Owen Daniels - BAL
Likely one and done but will notch some points if your #1 TE is a first-round bye player.
12. Tim Wright - NE
13.
Tony Moeaki - SEA
Could catch a touchdown in the later rounds, which can tip the scales in a close total points battle.
14.
Dwayne Allen - IND
Banged up, but a touchdown machine when he's on the field.
15.
Michael Hoomanawanui, NE
16.
Cooper Helfet, SEA
17.
Gavin Escobar, DAL
More potential random touchdown scores with a chance to be alive deep in the playoffs.
18.
Eric Ebron, DET
19.
Darren Fells, ARI
20.
Crockett Gillmore, BAL
21.
John Carlson, ARI
22.
Ed Dickson, CAR
23.
Matt Spaeth, PIT
24.
Jack Doyle, IND
Shot in the dark for points on wild card weekend.
kickers1.
Stephen Gostkowski - NE
2. Steven Hauschka - SEA
3.
Connor Barth - DEN
4.
Mason Crosby - GB
5.
Dan Bailey - DAL
6.
Graham Gano - CAR
7.
Shaun Suisham - PIT
8.
Adam Vinatieri - IND
9.
Mike Nugent - CAR
10.
Justin Tucker - BAL
11.
Chandler Catanzaro - ARI
12.
Matt Prater - DET
d/st1. Seattle
2. New England
3. Green Bay
4. Denver
5. Carolina
6. Dallas
7. Indianapolis
8. Pittsburgh
9. Cincinnati
10. Arizona
11. Baltimore
12. Detroit
a few more strategy thoughts1. Your first two picks should be key players from teams that you think will make the Super Bowl. Wilson/Lynch if you like Seattle. Brady/Gronk if you like New England. Manning/Anderson/Thomas/Sanders if you like Denver. Rodgers/Lacy/Nelson/Cobb if you like Green Bay. Romo/Murray/Dez if you like Dallas. Think of these as "bets" on the team.
2. Err on the side of spending early picks on players with a first round bye because wild card weekend production can come cheaply later in your draft, with the exception of the Cowboys, who seem to have the best first-round matchup and chance to make it to championship week. Players like
Jeremy Hill,
Justin Forsett,
Joique Bell, and
Jonathan Stewart will be cheaper than you think to get some points at running back out of the gate. Wide receiver is very deep
3. Ideally, you want to end up your draft with two or three Super Bowl combinations that are likely to give you the win because you would have the most players playing in the big game.
4. In the mid rounds, go one of two directions - either try to "corner" the market on a favorite by doubling up on defense and kicker or secondary position players, or hedge one of your key players with players from the team you think will make the Super Bowl if your heavily invested player(s) get stopped short. If you miss out on Wilson/Lynch early and take Rodgers/Lacy instead, try to snag Baldwin and the SEA in the mid rounds. Blount and LaFell are great Patriot value picks in the mid-rounds.
Terrance Williams and
Jason Witten can give you a strong Cowboys share without even spending one of your first five picks. As soon you commit to players in the first 2-3 rounds to be your cornerstones, your mid-round target list should immediately come into focus.
5. Wait at tight end if you don't get Gronkowski. The next five options are pretty close, and reasonable choices like the Packers duo, potential Seahawks/Patriots touchdown scorers, and cheap wild card production are available after that.
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