Does moving it back really change the % that much? Don't have the numbers, I'd imagine the success rate of 33 TD FG's is pretty high.
It drops from 99% to 93%.
See
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/5/19/8606641/nfl-rule-changes-extra-point-2-point-conversion-approved
Should be a bit better than that, as FGs can be from either hash with less error margin, but XPs will be from right in front. This new rule doesn't change much IMO.
Would like to see the stats on goal to go plays from the 2 for comparison. Expected point value of the XP kick would be about .95 or so, I think the 2pt tries will still be not too common due to the risk of going 0/3 or 1/4 and ending up needing an extra score. Not sure what the best thing is here but not in favour of overly weighting a very small number of plays over the course of the game in determining the outcome.
While we are discussing this in the Eagles thread, it does slightly change based on your coach. If you calculate the .95 per XP attempt, to likely be about the same as a 2 pointer, would that affect us more then other teams? It's no secret at all that Chip loves going for 2. Hell, he'd go for 2 in college after his first td almost every time.
He hasn't much in the NFL as he is smart and adjusting, but if the gap DOES shrink between a 1 and 2 point attempt, and if it's arguably a toss up, don't you think if any NFL coach does it, that it will be Chip? Wonder if we lead the league in 2 point attempts next year. Especially if we keep TT.
To look at it from a game theory point of view, high variance strategies like this are more appealing to bad teams than good ones, since the good teams don't have to take as many risks to win. Having different yard start points also takes the surprise element out of play though which is disappointing.
That said, it does seem like the kind of thing Chip would like to do if he thinks the odds favour it, regardless of the conventional wisdom. Like running on 3rd and 3.
I'd like to see the idea of no kicking after a TD, just a football play. From the 1 yard line for 1pt, from the 2 for 2. A 33yd FG is still basically automatic, all this new rule does is eliminate the surprise 2pt play.
Edit: If Chip thinks he can do something play or personnel wise that gives him a 60% chance of converting rather than 50% he might do it regularly.
Also I think we need to be wary of projecting any coach's college behaviour to the NFL. NFL games are harder to win, and you don't need to run up the score to boost your ranking.