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WR Phillip Dorsett, HOU (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Boone22
Footballguy
ESPN Colts reporter Mike Wells considers the team's No. 3 receiver job an open competition between Donte Moncrief, Phillip Dorsett, Duron Carter, and Vincent Brown.
Wells calls first-round pick Dorsett "too talented not find a way to get snaps for him." By all accounts, Dorsett has shined at OTAs and appears poised to pose a serious threat to Moncrief's role in sub-packages. As the Colts run a lot of two-tight end sets featuring Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, it's going to be hard to bank on the team's No. 3 receiver as a consistent fantasy asset.
Wells calls first-round pick Dorsett "too talented not find a way to get snaps for him." By all accounts, Dorsett has shined at OTAs and appears poised to pose a serious threat to Moncrief's role in sub-packages. As the Colts run a lot of two-tight end sets featuring Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, it's going to be hard to bank on the team's No. 3 receiver as a consistent fantasy asset.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Return of the Sheep
Footballguy
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Definitely coming around on him. I was skeptical of the landing spot due to the logjam at the position and my perception of Dorsett as mostly a guy to catch lobs, but I really don't think the Colts waste a 1st round pick on a WR that they're not going to use a good amount. Positive reports from OTAs are definitely a good sign even accounting for the usual pimping of a team's own recent selections. He fell all the way to me at 2.09 in a 12 team PPR only a couple of days ago. Definite value.
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
That's great value ... I'm hoping to get him at 2.03 - and I doubt it will happen. I think he is just an overall better football player than Hilton.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
In one dynasty I traded up from 2.10 to get him at 2.04, I was trying since 2.01 and every pick that passed I thought he was gone.
In another dynasty I just traded Peterson and a 3rd to get him in and a 1st.
In my 3rd dynasty I tried very hard to trade for him and almost took him at 1.11, but I felt confident I could make another deal and get him at 1.13 and it never happened. I am hoping he is buried on the depth chart this year so I can continue to add him.
In another dynasty I just traded Peterson and a 3rd to get him in and a 1st.
In my 3rd dynasty I tried very hard to trade for him and almost took him at 1.11, but I felt confident I could make another deal and get him at 1.13 and it never happened. I am hoping he is buried on the depth chart this year so I can continue to add him.
Rookie_Whisperer
Footballguy
Got him at 2.07 a few weeks back and since then his price is climbing steadily. Went 2.06 right before me two weeks ago, then I took him at 2.04 a week later, 2.02 to me a week after that, and just had him go at 1.12 while I was attempting to trade up and get him. I think he'll be a consistent 1st round pick within the next month in PPR scoring.
Dan Hindery
Moderator
With almost all my rookie drafts completed, Dorsett is the rookie who I have the most shares of as I was able to grab him in well over half of my leagues. I think he's by far the most attractive option in the 2nd round and was thrilled to see him sliding to the mid-late 2nd in early rookie drafts. Lately, I've been trading up to near the top of the 2nd round to make sure I can get him. Even took him over Tevin Coleman in a rookie draft on Saturday.
I've never been a believer in Moncrief so I think Dorsett has a great chance to end up as one of Luck's top 2 targets longer term. Plus, I expect TY Hilton's free agency to play out similar to Randall Cobb's. I think there's an 80%+ chance that Hilton ends up staying in Indy, but the uncertainty in the few months after the season could cause Dorsett's stock to sky rocket. It was only a few months ago that Davante Adams was going in the 3rd round of startup dynasty drafts due to Cobb's uncertainty. With a decent rookie season and Hilton's uncertainty, I wouldn't be surprised to see Dorsett valued in the same range next February. So there's a great "sell high" window on the near horizon if you aren't really that sold on Dorsett and want to get out vs. buying into him long-term.
I mentioned this on twitter recently, but sometimes dynasty can be pretty easy if you don't overthink things. People make it harder than it has to be by over-analyzing every aspect of each rookie and trying to prove they are smarter than the NFL scouts/GMs who have made a career of this and know their team's needs. In this case, it all seems pretty simple:
-1st round WR.
-Andrew Luck is his QB. (could stop right there...)
-Front office has a pretty strong track record of scouting WR/TE prospects
-We've already seen a similar WR (Hilton) average 100 receiving yards per game in the same offense last year. He's a FA after the season. The only other proven WR is 34 years old.
I've never been a believer in Moncrief so I think Dorsett has a great chance to end up as one of Luck's top 2 targets longer term. Plus, I expect TY Hilton's free agency to play out similar to Randall Cobb's. I think there's an 80%+ chance that Hilton ends up staying in Indy, but the uncertainty in the few months after the season could cause Dorsett's stock to sky rocket. It was only a few months ago that Davante Adams was going in the 3rd round of startup dynasty drafts due to Cobb's uncertainty. With a decent rookie season and Hilton's uncertainty, I wouldn't be surprised to see Dorsett valued in the same range next February. So there's a great "sell high" window on the near horizon if you aren't really that sold on Dorsett and want to get out vs. buying into him long-term.
I mentioned this on twitter recently, but sometimes dynasty can be pretty easy if you don't overthink things. People make it harder than it has to be by over-analyzing every aspect of each rookie and trying to prove they are smarter than the NFL scouts/GMs who have made a career of this and know their team's needs. In this case, it all seems pretty simple:
-1st round WR.
-Andrew Luck is his QB. (could stop right there...)
-Front office has a pretty strong track record of scouting WR/TE prospects
-We've already seen a similar WR (Hilton) average 100 receiving yards per game in the same offense last year. He's a FA after the season. The only other proven WR is 34 years old.
I think the one of the most important aspects of figuring out Dorsett's value is figuring out what the Colts will do with Hilton.
Obviously, no one really knows. But I am interested in why you wrote there is "an 80%+ chance" he stays in Indy.
I actually think the opposite is true - that it is unlikely Hilton stays. With Newton signing for $20 million a year, and Wilson in a position to command at least as much, doesn't that put Luck in the $25-30 million range? How do you pay that much to Luck and still pay Hilton?
I think it is much more likely they let Hilton walk, ESPECIALLY since they now have a valuable first round WR along with Moncrief - both of whom will be cheap for another 3-4 years. AND they have Johnson, who at this point in his career cares much more about a championship run that he cares about getting paid.
Dan Hindery
Moderator
While I agree that he "flashed,"that only gets you so far. He also flashed in college and tested incredibly well but still slid to the end of the 3rd round. His problems were/are inconsistency, route-running and doing all the little things right all the time. Justin Hunter also flashed as a rookie for example and you see some of the same strengths/weaknesses in their game. I worry about Moncrief's ability to ever really put it all together and consistently run the precise routes needed to be one of Indy's top 2 WRs and a guy who Luck really trusts.
I also think that as a dynasty owner you have to try to infer as much as possible about what the player's team thinks about him by their words and actions. I haven't heard anything from the Colts that indicates that they view Moncrief as anything more than a 3rd or 4th WR. And their actions don't indicate that they view him as a surefire difference-maker either. Their big FA signing was paying $7M a year for Andre Johnson to step in as the WR2. And despite a lot of holes on defense, they still used their 1st rounder on a WR. Those actions don't speak to a team that thinks it already had it's #2 WR on the roster already.
Do I hate Moncrief or think he's worthless? Of course not. And his athleticism (and Andrew Luck) mean that there is real upside there so he is worth grabbing and holding onto. But he is not a guy who scares me away from Dorsett like he seems to for so many others. I think the odds are that Dorsett (and not Moncrief) quickly emerges as the #3 WR this year and then becomes the eventual #1 or 2 when Andre Johnson slows down.
Thank you for the prompt reply Mr. Hindery. Yet another example of the tremendous value of FBG.
But let me push back just a bit, bc your answer re Moncrief I think presumes that Hilton stays. I believe there is a reasonable economic case, as I stated above, to argue the Colts will let him walk. And if they do, it may be bc they believe they are ok at WR w Moncreif, Dorsett and AJ going forward - at least for the next three year window.
Is there any "inside" information you have which led you to posit there is an 80%+ chance of Hilton staying?
Dan Hindery
Moderator
No problem, glad to discuss.
I'm not a reporter or anything and don't have any inside info at all about Hilton's contract situation. Just trying to read the tea leaves and make reasonable assumptions like everyone else.
I think the things in favor of Hilton sticking around are:
1. The Colts are in pretty good cap shape overall and project to have ~$40M to spend next offseason.
2. They've shown in the past that they were willing to pay Manning's top targets and kept Harrison/Wayne on the team for a decade+. Irsay seems to believe in surrounding his franchise QBs with as many top targets as possible and paying to have an elite offense.
3. It doesn't really make sense to let a valuable young star like Hilton walk to save a few bucks. It's not like their roster is loaded with a lot of other young talent that is going to be deserving of big deals where they have to make tough choices.
4. From Hilton's perspective, it makes sense to stay in Indy as long as they make him a fair offer. We saw this with Cobb last offseason where he maybe could have made and extra million or two per year by leaving. But he wanted to stay where he was comfortable, play with an elite QB and try to win. I suspect Hilton and a lot of other WRs think similarly. These guys want to put up big numbers and if the money is even close to similar, I think Hilton will stay.
5. Andre Johnson's contract is structured in a way that he will most likely be cut after 2016. It's really a 2-year deal with the Colts holding a 3rd year option (zero guaranteed money or dead money in the 3rd year). I'd be a little surprised if they decide to keep him around with a salary over $6M at age 36. Without Johnson or Hilton after 2016, they're really looking at needing to rebuild WR depth yet again even if Moncrief and Dorsett both hit.
Thanks for the great analysis, Mr. Hindery.
Points #1 and 5 are great pieces of information that I am sure the vast majority of people don't know.
Just doing some math though: w about $40 million of cap space, won't a large portion of that be taken by the raise that Luck will undoubtedly receive? And since the Colts do at some point need to address the defensive side of the ball, it stands to reason that some other portion of that cap space will go to acquiring/signing defensive players.
I think if Moncrief and or Dorsett really show ability this year, it will be hard for the Colts to not be tempted to low ball Hilton, if not outright let him walk. I understand Mr. Hindery's point regarding Hilton's perspective, but it is easy for us to talk about a "million or two a year" in the abstract; I imagine that is a much more difficult decision when it is your potential "million or two", especially when other considerations come into play like perhaps going to a major city and the prospect of endorsements, or perceiving a move to be "lateral" in terms of possibility of winning.
It is very interesting to me how these basic dollar decisions can play a lot into dynasty decisions. Look at the case of Julius Thomas. His dynasty value took a hit bc he went to Jax, a decision that in retrospect may have been predicted based on cap space etc. Is anyone aware of a site/article which addresses this well? I looked in the archives here at FBG and did not find anything.
Points #1 and 5 are great pieces of information that I am sure the vast majority of people don't know.
Just doing some math though: w about $40 million of cap space, won't a large portion of that be taken by the raise that Luck will undoubtedly receive? And since the Colts do at some point need to address the defensive side of the ball, it stands to reason that some other portion of that cap space will go to acquiring/signing defensive players.
I think if Moncrief and or Dorsett really show ability this year, it will be hard for the Colts to not be tempted to low ball Hilton, if not outright let him walk. I understand Mr. Hindery's point regarding Hilton's perspective, but it is easy for us to talk about a "million or two a year" in the abstract; I imagine that is a much more difficult decision when it is your potential "million or two", especially when other considerations come into play like perhaps going to a major city and the prospect of endorsements, or perceiving a move to be "lateral" in terms of possibility of winning.
It is very interesting to me how these basic dollar decisions can play a lot into dynasty decisions. Look at the case of Julius Thomas. His dynasty value took a hit bc he went to Jax, a decision that in retrospect may have been predicted based on cap space etc. Is anyone aware of a site/article which addresses this well? I looked in the archives here at FBG and did not find anything.
So this is somewhat off topic, but following on my question about salary cap and its implications for dynasty, found this website:
http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space
Way at the bottom of the list for cap space is Miami. If Mr. Hindery is seeing this, could you direct me as to who might knowledgable answer the question of what this might portend for Lamar Miller, for example? Or is that a poorly formed question?
http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space
Way at the bottom of the list for cap space is Miami. If Mr. Hindery is seeing this, could you direct me as to who might knowledgable answer the question of what this might portend for Lamar Miller, for example? Or is that a poorly formed question?
Tau837
Footballguy
Good post. Comments:
1. At spotrac, it appears that the Colts have $122.7M in currently active contracts for 2016, which is about $20.6M below the projected cap of $143M. Obviously, many of those players won't make the final roster... however:
a. That list has Luck at $16.16M in 2016, which is obviously subject to change with an extension.
b. That list does not include any of the Colts' UFAs after this season. Among others, that group includes WR Hilton, LT Castonzo, TE Allen, TE Fleener, CB Toler, ILB Freeman, and PK Vanatieri. I assume the Colts will want to resign at least one of Allen/Fleener and Castonzo. Not as certain about the others.
c. That list also does not account for 2016 rookies or free agent signees. As others have said, it seems that at some point the Colts will attempt to infuse some talent into the defense.
...so even if the Colts realistically have as much as $40M to spend, that doesn't make it easy to commit ~$10M of that to Hilton.
2. Not sure if paying Manning's top targets in the past is meaningful. Yes, Irsay was there, but the GM is different now.
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Sunday Devil
Footballguy
Evan Silva, the guy who predicted Justin Hunter would be a force to be reckoned with in 2014... 5 times
.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Traded my 2017 draft (1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4) and some scrubs for Dorsett today and am getting killed for it on the league message board. Not that I care, I think it was a smart move, but the criticism makes no sense. Think of the extra mid-late rounders as the price I paid to use my 2017 1st NOW on a 2015 1st rounder in Dorsett....who is a playmaker paired with Luck. If anything, he's probably just coming into his own in 2017 as a high-end WR2 while that guy is just getting a chance to use those picks on rookies.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Wow, I love Dorsett, but I think that is too much for me. I have to give you credit though, when you want a player you always go get them, no matter what.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Yeah, that's kind of a pattern for me.
But let me ask you:
If you're willing to spend a late 1st on Dorsett in 2015...
Then what's a 1st two years later and a 2nd, along with a bunch of lottery ticket picks that rarely hit? And that you can recoup by 2017 in other deals?
I don't know. I specifically accumulate 3rds and 4ths to toss in on the end of deals just like this, to give the sense that the value is overwhelming and with so many lottery tickets, some must hit.
But you're talking about a 1st, 2nd, and late rounders two years away for a 1st right now.
Seems like a no-brainer to me.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
It is why this hobby is fun, we all think differently and what works for some doesn't work for others.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I just find it interesting that people are totally game to slap down the entry fee on a player like this with a premium 2015 pick (mid-@ate 1st or early 2nd) but flinch at the idea of spending slightly more two years into the future for the same player. Think of the extra cost as the tax you pay for using your future first now, on a player you fully believe deserves to be a 1st now. Assuming "you" do value him that way, obviously.
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
I guess I get the logic, but there had to be a cheaper way. For example, if you believe he's just hitting his stride in 2017 then that means you have a couple years before you're paying top dollar and most likely if he sits behind the log jam at WR this year you'd be able to get him for much cheaper after his new rookie shine has wore off. Just think a little patience would have probably saved you some cost.
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Sorry. This was dumb... And I'm a huge Dorset fan, I think he will be better than Hilton - as early as this year. Still, you really hurt your future with that trade. Seriously - you could have floated the 2017 1st early in the season when Dorsett will "probably" be buried in the depth chart. Barring injury Hilton is going to be the #2 in Indy (yes I believe AJ will be the colts top WR this year) ... That leaves Dorsett fighting for touches with Moncrief? Hilton will be the #2 ... So you gave away everything you had in 2017 for a player that most likely won't come into a regular rule until 2016?
Love the enthusiasm- but I think you made a bad move. Could have gotten Philly Dorsett much cheaper.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Do you play in leagues with people who value their own rookies less a few months into their rookie seasons than they did at the time of the rookie draft? I don't think Dorsett's price is ever going down from where it is in any individual league right now, unless he's injured before the season starts.
I'm surprised to hear that you think Dorsett will be better than Hilton, but that he's not worth a 1st, 2nd, and lottery tickets two years from now (when he's already being drafted with 1sts now, two years earlier).
I'm just using the pick two years early on a player that will be a fantasy starter in 2017 rather than a rookie, and I paid 2, 3, 3, 4, 4 (and my picks have always been late in this league) to do it. Small price to pay to bump up a first two entire years.
If you disagree with that argument, I understand.
But to say I'd be able to get him cheaper than he cost now in a few months just seems extremely unlikely. Just wait until he starts flashing in training camp, preseason.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
That. Dorsett owners aren't trading him after a couple of months, period. Heck even a moderate injury wouldn't scare most, this wasn't a pick with a 2015 payout expected. We drafted him fully expecting this was a long play. No way he's cheaper than now before 2017. Look at Justin Hunter owners, most of them still haven't given up on him. No glimmer of hope on the field, no Andrew Luck, DGB drafted early - and they still aren't selling him for much less than an early 2nd. No way someone's bailing on Dorsett cheap. It takes an overpay to get him, and a 2017 1st/2nd and some mid picks isn't unreasonable at all. I wouldn't take that for him.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
I think the Colts and Luck set new passing yards marks this season. Remember when Peyton went off in 2004? He had 3 guys with 1000+ yards and 10+ TDs. There's plenty to go around here. Now, if you think Moncrief holds off Dorsett, well that's another story. I don't see that but you never know I guess.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Anyone that drafted Dorsett did so with the understanding of his place on the depth chart.
Tau837
Footballguy
It seems odd that this opens by talking about Dorsett and drops. He only had one drop as a senior, and his hands have been noted as a strength. Maybe he had a problem earlier in his college career, but, if so, it seems he already fixed it.
Faust
MVP
Colts believe Phillip Dorsett has superstar potential:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000506880/article/colts-believe-phillip-dorsett-has-superstar-potential
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000506880/article/colts-believe-phillip-dorsett-has-superstar-potential
HairySasquatch
Footballguy
Just got Dorsett at 2.6 in a 12 team PPR dynasty. Feel fortunate that he fell that far in the draft.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Rookie draft?
How? Why? I got him at 2.01 like a month+ ago and found that to be robbery
