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Faust

Dynasty & Redraft: WR Stefon Diggs, Bills

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16 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Interesting...  a lot of copied/pasted posts from Lamar Jackson a year ago. Granted, he is a very different QB and ran a ton, but he made some amazing strides as a passer last offseason. It can be done, especially for a raw QB who is not NFL ready at the time he was drafted 

As awesome as Lamar Jackson was last year, he wasn't great at getting the ball to his receivers. If Diggs was in Marquise Brown's shoes, I got him throwing a fit at some point.

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15 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

58.2% his rookie year to 66.1% completion rate last season. I'd say he did a much better job at getting the ball to his receivers. In fact, he was 9th in the NFL

 

My point is- a significant improvement in completion percentage and accuracy is possible, especially for raw QBs like Jackson and Allen 

Well my point was the grass isn't always greener. Allen might improve, and he has more potential than Cousins. But the odds of him ever developing into a passer as good as Kirk, they're more of a maybe than guarantee.  

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I see it as a slight upgrade for Diggs, but not as good as 2018. Buffalo will probably throw a bit more often than Minnesota , and Diggs is the alpha now, so I think he'll see a decent bump from the 94 Target he got last year. Target quality takes a hit, cancelling at least one of those plusses out. 

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13 minutes ago, Ron_Mexico said:

Buffalo, it's where fantasy WRs goes to die.

Unless Jim Kelly was your QB ;)

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2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Interesting...  a lot of copied/pasted posts from Lamar Jackson a year ago. Granted, he is a very different QB and ran a ton, but he made some amazing strides as a passer last offseason. It can be done, especially for a raw QB who is not NFL ready at the time he was drafted 

Jackson definitely took a step up last season but that also doesn't mean Allen will. Also the offense Baltimore set up for Jackson helped hide some of his weaknesses and caused the defense to leave some guys open. Even with that said, Jackson was more effective passing to his TEs and RBs than to his WRs from what I observed (I'll admit stats may not back that up so I'll defer to anyone that can counter my observation).

I was not a fan of Allen coming into the league. When there was a lot of buzz that the Jets would target him I was very worried. He's been better than I thought he would be so far but I still don't think he's a great passer and I have doubts he will be. He's a great athlete, a great leader, tough as hell and I like his drive. I'd be ok with him leading my NFL team to some extent but he's not the QB I want for my fantasy WRs.

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17 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

It doesn't mean that, but it's an example that it's possible...

It's possible, but that's not necessarily a winning approach. I'm not advocating panic selling, and to be honest I'll likely hold, but I'd move him if some one seemed to like the landing spot.

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25 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

It's possible, but that's not necessarily a winning approach. I'm not advocating panic selling, and to be honest I'll likely hold, but I'd move him if some one seemed to like the landing spot.

Definitely a sell if someone is buying. If he couldn't exist with Cousins, it'll be fun watching him block for Allen and then getting overthrown by 10 yards. This has disaster written all over it.

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I dropped Cole Beasley today on this news. WIth Diggs and John Brown I don't see him getting enough targets to be worth owning.  For Diggs, this seems like a lateral move--yes he is WR1 but I doubt he getst that many more targets than he got in MN. This should also downgrade Brown some.

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32 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

Definitely a sell if someone is buying. If he couldn't exist with Cousins, it'll be fun watching him block for Allen and then getting overthrown by 10 yards. This has disaster written all over it.

This.

Total sell right now

 

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34 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

Definitely a sell if someone is buying. If he couldn't exist with Cousins, it'll be fun watching him block for Allen and then getting overthrown by 10 yards. This has disaster written all over it.

To take the other side (and i'm in the camp where this seems like a downgrade), didn't watch a ton of Bills games last years but John Brown had a pretty good season...

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FWIW, Josh Allen was the worst passer in the NFL last year on deep balls, but one of the best (and maybe the best) on intermediate balls. His receivers also had one of the highest drop rates in the entire league. 

I’m not saying he is going to be Drew Brees next year or that there aren’t some significant concerns, but I think there’s some reason for some hope as well.

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Quote

 

QB Data Mine

@QBDataMine

Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs' new QB, is the worst deep passer in the NFL. He hit 15 of 59 attempts last season. 25.4%

 

 

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15 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Everything I read says that Brown is the deep threat and Diggs is the guy for the intermediate routes. I'm not sure why Diggs is labeled as a burner/fly route guy in this forum... Maybe that's how MIN used him exclusively, but he's not  a blazer... In fact comps used in the past for him have been AB in terms of his skill set. I think a possession type WR can do quite well in Buffalo.

Because DIggs averaged 17.9 ypr last season with a 67% catch rate. Thats 12 yards per target. This is incredibly efficient for a player mostly being used on deep routes as he was last season.

That isn't all that DIggs is or can do, he caught 100 passes in 2018 with the Vikings and Kirk Cousins in a different offense that threw the ball more and used DIggs on crossing routes and hitch routes, which are the most common routes run by Diggs in his career. Diggs has always been able to take the top off the defense, but he was used more as a possession WR prior to last season with Kubiak, where they ran the ball more and used play action to make those deep shots a bit higher percentage plays than normal.

To your overall point Diggs is a complete WR who excels at everything. Last season being proof of his deep ball ability as well. It is just recency bias that causes people to describe DIggs this way.

To Grove Diesels point about Allen being better on intermediate routes, well thats DIggs bread and butter. I think DIggs can get Allen to 60% completion rate because of his skill and savy. He is echelons better than Cole Beasley.

 

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

QB Data Mine

@QBDataMine

Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs' new QB, is the worst deep passer in the NFL. He hit 15 of 59 attempts last season. 25.4%

Assuming that's tracking completion percentage and not on target percentage, how much of that is because a bunch of his deep targets went to Cole Beasley and Duke Williams? 

 

Edited by jtd13

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3 minutes ago, jtd13 said:

Assuming that's tracking completion percentage and not on target percentage, how much of that is because a bunch of his deep targets went to Cole Beasley and Duke Williams? 

 

Duke Williams didn’t see much time until the end of the season and actually looked very good. I’m guessing most of the deep targets went to John Brown. Beasley is seldom used on go routes - he’s an underneath guy.

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3 hours ago, jtd13 said:

Assuming that's tracking completion percentage and not on target percentage, how much of that is because a bunch of his deep targets went to Cole Beasley and Duke Williams? 

 

Having watched virtually every Bills game last year, it’s mostly on Allen. He overthrew a ton of guys. His deep ball was way too flat. The ones he lofted and got more air under were much better. 

I know he said it was a priority for him to work on this offseason. If he can program himself to throw his deep balls more up than out, I think his success would climb quite a bit. 

I could be completely wrong, but IMO, deep balls aren’t as much about pinpoint accuracy as they are getting air under the ball and putting it in a general area that allows the receiver to adjust his stride/route a bit to go and make the catch. You can’t way under throw him and force the receiver to stop or come back, but giving a receiver the ability to slow his stride just a bit or track left or right a bit is fine. Throwing the ball on a line 40 yards down the field means you have to put it on a dime and hit a guy in stride which is incredibly difficult to do.

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Quote

The Bills' official website reports Stefon Diggs worked out with Josh Allen earlier this offseason. 

It is just something to file away headed into training camp. Diggs and Allen will be a shotgun wedding of sorts after getting zero official offseason practices to start establishing their chemistry, but informal workouts are much better than nothing. Barring massive strides in the accuracy department, Allen could make life difficult for Diggs down the field. 

RELATED: 

Josh Allen

SOURCE: buffalobills.com 

Jul 4, 2020, 11:02 AM ET

 

 

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On 7/4/2020 at 1:33 PM, Faust said:

 

 

Counterpoint: John Brown had his best year ever by a good margin in deep ball catch percentage last year with Allen as his QB.

Yes, Allen struggles a good bit last year on the deep ball, but outside of Brown, can anyone name guys who were legit deep ball threats (or have shown ability to track deep balls well?) that were on the Bills last year?

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I don't understand everyone fading Diggs now with the Bills. I get the Allen stuff and I am probably lower on him than most, but he's going to be the CLEAR #1 in the passing game (which is a rarer commodity these days), he has proven ability to have huge fantasy weeks and will likely have a few of those if he's being fed targets.

There also seems to be this narrative that he won't get the volume he needs because of the presence of John Brown and, um.....Cole Beasley!? That's about as little competition for targets as you can have in an NFL WR room. I actually think that the numbers for Brown and Beasley are a positive indicator for Diggs - I mean, if those two can get targets and yards to that level, then why can't Diggs do more? He's not capped by what Brown did as a de facto #1 WR last year - Brown got those targets I think because they didn't have any alphas. It's perfectly reasonable to think that Diggs will significantly eat into those targets (and Beasley's too). 

My only concern is that there will be some cold weather football in there and the Bills look like a run first team with a really good defense, so you're not going to have a lot of shootouts. But in my mind that is offset to some extent by the target volume he will get. 

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Never liked him the last couple years but his price has gotten low enough that I think he is a value buy right now

 

He is going to get FED

 

If Kyle Allen can support DJ Moore and Trubisky can support Allen Robinson, then I have no doubt Diggs will be fine

 

Besides would it be fair to say his floor is WR20 (what John Brown was last season)? With a ceiling higher than that based on the possibility of Allen improving and Diggs (I think) being more talented and a more complete WR than John Brown (also good just not as good IMO)?

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1 hour ago, KChusker said:

Never liked him the last couple years but his price has gotten low enough that I think he is a value buy right now

 

He is going to get FED

 

If Kyle Allen can support DJ Moore and Trubisky can support Allen Robinson, then I have no doubt Diggs will be fine

 

Besides would it be fair to say his floor is WR20 (what John Brown was last season)? With a ceiling higher than that based on the possibility of Allen improving and Diggs (I think) being more talented and a more complete WR than John Brown (also good just not as good IMO)?

I don't like him this year.  I think he's being overvalued based on his name. 

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3 hours ago, KChusker said:

Never liked him the last couple years but his price has gotten low enough that I think he is a value buy right now

 

He is going to get FED

 

If Kyle Allen can support DJ Moore and Trubisky can support Allen Robinson, then I have no doubt Diggs will be fine

 

Besides would it be fair to say his floor is WR20 (what John Brown was last season)? With a ceiling higher than that based on the possibility of Allen improving and Diggs (I think) being more talented and a more complete WR than John Brown (also good just not as good IMO)?

I’m sure ‘he’ll be fine’ but not sure that’s what people are trying to figure out.

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12 hours ago, Deamon said:

I don't like him this year.  I think he's being overvalued based on his name. 

He is being valued at the WR26--six spots lower than where John Brown finished as the Bills WR1

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3 hours ago, KChusker said:

He is being valued at the WR26--six spots lower than where John Brown finished as the Bills WR1

That makes no sense at all. Allen should improve as a passer and Diggs is a way better wr than brown. I’d think mid to late teens he should be valued at

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John Brown gets no love. Go watch last season highlights. Turned in a remarkably consistent season for a speed guy. He runs great routes and is virtually uncoverable 1v1. Love him feasting on CB2’s 

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6 hours ago, KChusker said:

He is being valued at the WR26--six spots lower than where John Brown finished as the Bills WR1

:goodposting:

this guy is going to be gold, Jerry, gold!

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Bills restructured Stefon Diggs' contract.

Buffalo will give Diggs $3.3 million more in 2020 while reducing some of his salary in the later years of his contract. It's an insignificant move for Diggs' short- and long-term outlook with Bills. For fantasy purposes, Diggs needs to get better deep-ball accuracy out of Josh Allen to reach his ceiling. They've been working together this offseason -- that, of course, includes playing video games together -- and expect to have chemistry in 2020 despite limited in-person practices. Diggs will likely be a fantasy WR3 who has a handful of boom and bust weeks. Stacking Allen with Diggs has been a common strategy in bestball formats this summer.

SOURCE: Mike Garafolo on Twitter

Aug 5, 2020, 3:50 PM ET

 

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2 hours ago, RushHour said:

Undervalued at this point. 

Completely agree. He's being drafted at his absolute floor right now. John Brown put up  72-1060-6 last year, and Diggs is a lot better than Brown.

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13 hours ago, travdogg said:

Completely agree. He's being drafted at his absolute floor right now. John Brown put up  72-1060-6 last year, and Diggs is a lot better than Brown.

Diggs net 1,130-6 last year and 1,021-9 (with 149 targets) the year before. Those were his two best years in the league. Subjectively, I agree that Diggs is a better talent than Brown. But I'm finding it difficult to elevate him above where he's currently ranked. Allen's different than Cousins, but is he better? And WR's moving to a new team always leaves me tugging at my colar, but especially this year.

I need convinced.

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Diggs net 1,130-6 last year and 1,021-9 (with 149 targets) the year before. Those were his two best years in the league. Subjectively, I agree that Diggs is a better talent than Brown. But I'm finding it difficult to elevate him above where he's currently ranked. Allen's different than Cousins, but is he better? And WR's moving to a new team always leaves me tugging at my colar, but especially this year.

I need convinced.

Brown there really deters me. Brown does what he does well, though Diggs, per Reception Perception and PFF, is one of the best and most efficient route runners there is.

So what to do? Finer minds than mine can't figure it out...

Edited by rockaction

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51 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Brown there really deters me. Brown does what he does well, though Diggs, per Reception Perception and PFF, is one of the best and most efficient route runners there is.

So what to do? Finer minds than mine can't figure it out...

I think Brown gets fazed out a bit. I'm fully expecting him to be the #3 WR in catches. Beasley does his role, and Diggs and Brown overlap a bit. Diggs does it all so much better though. 

Brown feels like a candidate to be a decoy, who hits the occasional big play. But I'd take the under on 50 catches for Brown.

I think Diggs pretty much keeps on trucking at the level he was in Minnesota. But he's being drafted multiple rounds lower now. That makes him underrated to me.

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5 hours ago, travdogg said:

I think Brown gets fazed out a bit. I'm fully expecting him to be the #3 WR in catches. Beasley does his role, and Diggs and Brown overlap a bit. Diggs does it all so much better though. 

Brown feels like a candidate to be a decoy, who hits the occasional big play. But I'd take the under on 50 catches for Brown.

I think Diggs pretty much keeps on trucking at the level he was in Minnesota. But he's being drafted multiple rounds lower now. That makes him underrated to me.

The bolded is not connecting with me.

He's being drafted around DK Metcalf, Keenan Allen, Robert Woods, DeVante Parker, DJ Chark, Terry McLaurin, and TY Hilton. On a per game basis he finished behind all of those players that were not rookies - and Hilton (who was mostly injured). His 2018 rates were within half a point of Hilton and about a point ahead of Allen and Woods. The last two seasons were clearly Diggs' best.

If you're expecting the same from Diggs then are you expecting worse from all of those vets? and no development from the rookies? 

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3 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

The bolded is not connecting with me.

He's being drafted around DK Metcalf, Keenan Allen, Robert Woods, DeVante Parker, DJ Chark, Terry McLaurin, and TY Hilton. On a per game basis he finished behind all of those players that were not rookies - and Hilton (who was mostly injured). His 2018 rates were within half a point of Hilton and about a point ahead of Allen and Woods. The last two seasons were clearly Diggs' best.

If you're expecting the same from Diggs then are you expecting worse from all of those vets? and no development from the rookies? 

I'm expecting less from Allen, Parker, and Chark. Chark happened down the stretch already, Allen had a huge QB downgrade, and Parker just feels fluky to me. 

I'd take Metcalf over Diggs for sure. I'd also take McLaurin over him. Woods and Hilton are toss ups to me. Probably yes to Woods and no to Hilton. 

In mocks I've done, Diggs has been going after all those guys, by about a round. He's been going more akin to guys like Jarvis Landry, and Hollywood Brown. 

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Quote

Stefon Diggs caught 8-of-9 targets for 86 yards in the Bills' Week 1 win over the Jets. 

It was a pre-2019 statline from Diggs, who uncorked only two gains longer than 11 yards. Playing with a big lead from early in the first quarter, the Bills never had to open it up deep, though Josh Allen did attempt a career-high 46 passes. With so little practice time together, it could take Diggs and Allen several more weeks to get their deep timing down. That's especially true since "deep timing" has never exactly been Allen's thing despite his prodigious arm strength. Diggs will remain an upside-but-volatile WR3 for Week 2 against the Dolphins. 

- Rotoworld

 

Edited by The Frankman

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