The
leaking of player lineup data at DraftKings has sparked a community-wide conversation spanning
employee access to player data,
game integrity, and the
effectiveness of quasi-self-regulation in the DFS industry.
Below is a collection of what’s known, answers to common questions, and potential implications around the
#DKLeak.
DFS Report was first to report on the issue, which was originally noted in
a Rotogrinders thread. We are
awaiting comment from DraftKings.
Contact us with anything you think should be added. Story will be updated as warranted.
The story, in a nutshellHere are the broad strokes of
#DKLeak:
- Last week, a DraftKings employee inadvertently released data regarding DraftKings’ biggest contest — the Millionaire Maker — prior to the start of all the NFL games involved in the contest.
- The data showed the prevalence of particular players across all submitted lineups for the contest. For instance, in this example, Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman was the most common player selected, appearing in 37 percent of the lineups that were entered.
- This kind of data is posted regularly, but never until all games in a given contest have started and all lineups are finalized.
- Access to this kind of data prior to the start of a contest would provide a DFS player with a massive edge over players lacking such data.
- Employees at DFS operators are not prohibited from playing at other DFS sites. To wit: the person who posted the DraftKings data early — DraftKings written content manager Ethan Haskell — won $350,000 at FanDuel the week of the data leak.
- There is no indication, evidence, or formal accusation that Haskell’s win is in any way related to his access to data, nor is there proof that Haskell had access to data at a point that would have provided him with an advantage. Haskell and others have denied any wrongdoing. But the mere optics of the situation are driving some of the broader concerns.
- Players and observers are now raising questions about exactly who inside DFS operators has access to competitively valuable data, what safeguards are in place to prevent abuse, and whether the industry’s self-regulatory approach is sufficient to identify and mitigate these and similar threats.
How does access to ownership data provide an edge?
Ownership percentage is one piece of the puzzle that can be useful in skillfully setting DFS lineups, especially in
guaranteed prize pool contests. Top players try to predict ownership percentages, and data about past ownership percentages can be dissected for information.
Because of the massive number of entries in the biggest contests at
DraftKings and
FanDuel — hundreds of thousands — it’s usually
difficult to win a contest with a lot of players that are commonly owned. Rostering some players with low ownership percentages and a high upside is a
strategy that many players employ.
Ed Miller, an independent games consultant who has
written frequently about DFS, says that it’s
difficult to overstate the value of lineup data.
“If you knew beforehand which players would be most used, in the major sports you can build +EV (positive expected value) cash game and GPP lineups based almost solely on that knowledge,” Miller told Legal Sports Report.
Why the question of access to insider data is a critical one
