rugcleaner
Footballguy
For me its
60% skill on championship
75% skill on total points
60% skill on championship
75% skill on total points
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Luck vs skill POLL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter rugcleaner
- Start date
Super King
Footballguy
Luck to win the championship. Two words: Nick Goings....
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rugcleaner
Footballguy
Haven't finished anything yet, just getting opinions on a debate I was having in another thread
rugcleaner
Footballguy
joffer
Footballguy
Depends
If you assume everyone in your league is reasonably knowledgeable and knows that Peterson is a better start than Christine Michael, it's about 90% luck.
If you pick 12 random people off the street and form a league and happen to find one that's a big football fan, than its about 90% skill.
If you assume everyone in your league is reasonably knowledgeable and knows that Peterson is a better start than Christine Michael, it's about 90% luck.
If you pick 12 random people off the street and form a league and happen to find one that's a big football fan, than its about 90% skill.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
This poll assumes things are black and white but they aren't.
All the skill in the world doesn't change the fact that it's pure chance than Bell goes down.
In my work league I had gotten bell late round 1. I also had Forsett. I had the best team in the league for the first half of the season. I a, going to finish 9/12.
My other league I'm 12-0 and it looks like I'm going to run away with the title.
The only difference? Injuries.
All the skill in the world doesn't change the fact that it's pure chance than Bell goes down.
In my work league I had gotten bell late round 1. I also had Forsett. I had the best team in the league for the first half of the season. I a, going to finish 9/12.
My other league I'm 12-0 and it looks like I'm going to run away with the title.
The only difference? Injuries.
Skoo
Footballguy
Not to pile on, but this has to do with skill also.
I also lost Bell, but I rostered DWill all season just in case, especially after his first 2 weeks while Bell was suspended.
Depth is another factor, if you have enough you can survive through injuries.
So yeah, while it's unlucky to lose a guy to injury, part of the game is knowing any player can get hurt on any play.
And I'm guilty of that as well, didn't have a backup TE on the roster when Gronk went down. Now I just need to pray he comes back for week 14.
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Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
skill might have had you handcuffing your #1 pick (who was out the first two weeks anyway) instead of drafting your WR4 or something in the middle of the draft.....dwilly giving pretty good production that should have still kept you in the mix with your 1st round pick...
I feel zero sympathy for Bell owners....the suspension made the handcuff even more of a no brainer
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Generally, it is a matter of skill when I win, and it is a matter of luck when I lose.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Another good way to phrase it is, it takes skill to make the playoffs but luck to win a championship. Good waiver wire pick ups, playing match ups, and good trades can carry you to the playoffs, but once you get there all it takes is one bad week to send you packing.
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Luck in the playoffs forsure. I have seen a team sneak into the playoffs and win it. Next year they are back to the bottom feeding for many years. Got key injuries to others. I have done a few exercises in my league to see how things would go if we did different ways to determine championship. We have 8 teams make playoffs now. What happens if only 6. What happens if you give something to a team for finishing with higher seed. What happens if you take top 4 scorers in 1st week, top 2 for finals and of course finals. Last years winner does not win other than the way he won.
Regular season in our league has some luck but negated a little with doubleheaders. The top scoring team will probably win league champiionship again. Happens most time with scoring and the team with best all play winning the regular season and doubleheaders help.
Regular season in our league has some luck but negated a little with doubleheaders. The top scoring team will probably win league champiionship again. Happens most time with scoring and the team with best all play winning the regular season and doubleheaders help.
MattFancy
Footballguy
I think to win a championship, it takes both luck and skill. You probably have a couple of close wins throughout the year to put you in position to get far, but you also probably were active on the WW to find players that could help your team and probably drafted well too.
For total points, that would be more skill, IMO.
For total points, that would be more skill, IMO.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
i'd like to think it's more skill....we build teams just like the NFL teams do....was it luck NE won a championship.....is it luck they seem to be in the mix each year.....
is it luck your fantasy team is usually in the mix each year?.....
I agree that skill puts you in a position to "get lucky"....to me every once in awhile that just means hitting it right on a WDIS question....not really getting lucky....
I actually think in todays world where everybody has access to almost all of the same information.....skills like working the WW, trading, manipulating your league rules, etc...are what can win championships....matching your own personal eye ball test to your league scoring, etc is very important....
luck would really seem to be more of a factor is in leagues that auto drafts your team and you don't make any moves.....
you can't really put a true % on luck or a luck factor.....
is it luck your fantasy team is usually in the mix each year?.....
I agree that skill puts you in a position to "get lucky"....to me every once in awhile that just means hitting it right on a WDIS question....not really getting lucky....
I actually think in todays world where everybody has access to almost all of the same information.....skills like working the WW, trading, manipulating your league rules, etc...are what can win championships....matching your own personal eye ball test to your league scoring, etc is very important....
luck would really seem to be more of a factor is in leagues that auto drafts your team and you don't make any moves.....
you can't really put a true % on luck or a luck factor.....
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rugcleaner
Footballguy
I have lost Bell, D Lewis, and Forsett in one league, now have gronk down. Filled the gaps with D will, Rawls, Buck Allen, and Chandler, 10-3 locked #1 seed 2 weeks ago. If 1 guy going down tanks your whole season your doing it wrong
T J
Footballguy
Here's an example of luck:
This was yesterday in the Bucs/Falcons game. My guy (Charles Sims) looked like he scored a TD. Announcers were saying that if the coaches had challenged it, they would have won the challenge and Sims gets that TD. Instead, they don't and then Doug Martin comes in for a play and gets the TD.
That's just bad luck for me and good luck for the Martin owner.
Injuries obviously. You can do all you want with backups, etc... But if you're up on the injury carousel, that's just bad luck. Our top team hasn't had a single injury all year and that's just good luck. There's definitely a correlation.
This was yesterday in the Bucs/Falcons game. My guy (Charles Sims) looked like he scored a TD. Announcers were saying that if the coaches had challenged it, they would have won the challenge and Sims gets that TD. Instead, they don't and then Doug Martin comes in for a play and gets the TD.
That's just bad luck for me and good luck for the Martin owner.
Injuries obviously. You can do all you want with backups, etc... But if you're up on the injury carousel, that's just bad luck. Our top team hasn't had a single injury all year and that's just good luck. There's definitely a correlation.
T J
Footballguy
Not to hijack the thread, but I think it's relevant, given your post, to know what mechanism your league uses to acquire free agents. Seems awfully fortunate to have been able to acquire all those guys.
rugcleaner
Footballguy
To expand on your luck in waivers point.
prior to Week 3 I wanted Dion Lewis bad, he was owned
-did nothing but talk up Blount that week and how dion had his final flash in the pan.
-Blount goes off against jacksonville,(predictably)
-dion gets dropped
-swoop in
-profit
tone1oc
Footballguy
rugcleaner
Footballguy
Traded for D will, Preemptive pick up on Rawls with Lynch gimpy(actually played him his big week). Buck and Chandler out of the pool. Free for all system, cost's real money for free agent pickups. It's terrible system subject to abuse, however I am obligated to abuse until it is changed. Figured it was relevant considering I lost the same 2 players + Lewis
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Same 12 dudes for 15+yrs...
The guy who finishes in the bottom 2-3 nearly EVERY single year (not a joke)... is unbeaten this year. Ran away and won the league 2 weeks ago.
There is a mix of both at play, but Luck trumps everything. He had handcuffs that just went off due to top dogs getting injured. And a cakewalk schedule w lowest points against.
How she goes.
The guy who finishes in the bottom 2-3 nearly EVERY single year (not a joke)... is unbeaten this year. Ran away and won the league 2 weeks ago.
There is a mix of both at play, but Luck trumps everything. He had handcuffs that just went off due to top dogs getting injured. And a cakewalk schedule w lowest points against.
How she goes.
socrates
Footballguy
Both take a combination of skill and luck. I consider myself a fairly skilled owner, and while injuries are always a part of the game, I have faced an inordinate number of injuries to my team this season. Skillful maneuvering and a degree of luck has put me into the playoffs despite the bad injury luck, but it will require a streak of good luck more than skill down the stretch to win the league championship.
rugcleaner
Footballguy
Thanks for your 2nd irrelevant post in this thread.
Psychological warfare in a short bench league is a tool.
T J
Footballguy
I suspected it was a free for all.
I'm in a 14 man league with very knowledgeable owners and we blind bid on free agents on Tuesdays. Luck (injuries) plays a huge part in our league.
lod01
Footballguy
Skoo
Footballguy
When it comes to this discussion I always compare fantasy to poker, as they both have a level of both luck and skill involved.
The smaller sample size you're looking at, the more luck is involved.
Example: A last place team can beat a 1st place team on any given week; sometimes 2-7 beats AA in texas hold 'em.
But, the larger the sample size becomes, the more skill begins to take over.
Example: In my keeper league we've been playing for 6 years, there are teams that are in the playoffs almost every year, and teams that still haven't made the playoffs once. The teams that haven't made it yet are not unlucky, they just aren't as skilled (knowledgable) at fantasy.
In poker, the guy that beats my AA with his 2-7 will lose all his money in the long run to the more skilled player.
So as far as the poll goes, IMO it takes a lot more skill to GET to the playoffs than it does to win the championship once you get in. Smaller sample size, luck factor increases.
The smaller sample size you're looking at, the more luck is involved.
Example: A last place team can beat a 1st place team on any given week; sometimes 2-7 beats AA in texas hold 'em.
But, the larger the sample size becomes, the more skill begins to take over.
Example: In my keeper league we've been playing for 6 years, there are teams that are in the playoffs almost every year, and teams that still haven't made the playoffs once. The teams that haven't made it yet are not unlucky, they just aren't as skilled (knowledgable) at fantasy.
In poker, the guy that beats my AA with his 2-7 will lose all his money in the long run to the more skilled player.
So as far as the poll goes, IMO it takes a lot more skill to GET to the playoffs than it does to win the championship once you get in. Smaller sample size, luck factor increases.
tone1oc
Footballguy
I'll stop making irrelevant posts in an irrelevant thread. After this one, of course.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
It's all dumb luck
rugcleaner
Footballguy
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
not sure that luck trumps everything.....would think chances are better that a highly skilled player wins a championship over a course of a season than someone being able to be "lucky" for 16-17 weeks in a row.....or at least week 14 on....
OBJ probably helped many owners win leagues last year....and I would imagine many of those owners picked him up off the WW.....was that lucky or was that skill.....you have to say skill right?.....cause they had to make the effort to pick him up.....it wasn't lucky that they picked him up.....
I don't think it's 'lucky" not to have any/many injuries.....we all draft a player assuming he will be healthy for every game.....it's not "unlucky" if he gets hurt it is just part of this hobby and the game we are playing.....we all know the rules going in (like ww rules, etc).....there are no surprises.....Martin replacing Sims and getting the TD is not lucky for one and unlucky for the other, it's just the way things go sometimes....the Martin owner isn't all of a sudden a "lucky" person who should go out and buy a lotto ticket.....
OBJ probably helped many owners win leagues last year....and I would imagine many of those owners picked him up off the WW.....was that lucky or was that skill.....you have to say skill right?.....cause they had to make the effort to pick him up.....it wasn't lucky that they picked him up.....
I don't think it's 'lucky" not to have any/many injuries.....we all draft a player assuming he will be healthy for every game.....it's not "unlucky" if he gets hurt it is just part of this hobby and the game we are playing.....we all know the rules going in (like ww rules, etc).....there are no surprises.....Martin replacing Sims and getting the TD is not lucky for one and unlucky for the other, it's just the way things go sometimes....the Martin owner isn't all of a sudden a "lucky" person who should go out and buy a lotto ticket.....
Skoo
Footballguy
Ummm.....huh?
Total points is easily the best indicator of how well a fantasy team did during a season. It takes away all the luck that factors in when you have head-to-head matchups.
The only reason most leagues play weekly head-to-head matchups instead of total points is that it wouldn't be nearly as exciting on a weekly basis.
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rugcleaner
Footballguy
tone1oc
Footballguy
I just hate this argument, which pops up every single season. It's usually sour grapes too. We all rely on luck to some degree or another in the micro (say one season), but it always seems those sour grapes owners want to downplay their own luck while overselling other's luck.
Chance is inherent in the game, if you play long enough and look at things through the macro, there isn't really as much luck involved in being a good fantasy football player as many would think. Unless your bar is winning it all every single year.
Chance is inherent in the game, if you play long enough and look at things through the macro, there isn't really as much luck involved in being a good fantasy football player as many would think. Unless your bar is winning it all every single year.
rugcleaner
Footballguy
here's my small sample size
I have seen 5 of 6 championships won by highly skilled owners
6 of 6 total points won by highly skilled owners.
I have seen 5 of 6 championships won by highly skilled owners
6 of 6 total points won by highly skilled owners.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I have the #1 seed and led the league in points by 115. That took a lot of skillful work.
Injuries: maybe 5-6 games all year, maybe one GTD decision. That's pretty much pure luck.
Points Against: 10th out of 12. Pure luck. 5 of 13 weeks I had the biggest blowout, both skill & luck.
H2H bull####: I lost games by 8, 5 and 13. Better lineup decisions could have won two of those pretty easily. Clarivoyance could have won the third but also not really (like benching Antonio Brown for Benjamin/Tate kind of thing.)
Overall, I'd say I got pretty lucky to go 10-3. I made mistakes. I also made some great calls, so it's a mixed bag.
Injuries: maybe 5-6 games all year, maybe one GTD decision. That's pretty much pure luck.
Points Against: 10th out of 12. Pure luck. 5 of 13 weeks I had the biggest blowout, both skill & luck.
H2H bull####: I lost games by 8, 5 and 13. Better lineup decisions could have won two of those pretty easily. Clarivoyance could have won the third but also not really (like benching Antonio Brown for Benjamin/Tate kind of thing.)
Overall, I'd say I got pretty lucky to go 10-3. I made mistakes. I also made some great calls, so it's a mixed bag.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
People who vote skill are the same people who still believe there's such thing as a fantasy football "expert"
You can't control injuries, you can't control matchups, and you can't control weekly gameplans. Even the most skilled owner will miss more than they hit on draft picks and sleeper picks because that's the nature of the game. All of those factors can ruin even the mostly skilled owners' seasons.
Over the long haul - as in, multiple seasons - the more skilled owners tend to finish at or near the top consistently in a dynasty league. But in any given year, to think that skill plays a bigger role than luck is wishful thinking by those who think they're skilled. There's more skill involved in winning the points title than the championship, but there's way more luck involved with both.
And the longer you play this game, the more clear that gets.
You can't control injuries, you can't control matchups, and you can't control weekly gameplans. Even the most skilled owner will miss more than they hit on draft picks and sleeper picks because that's the nature of the game. All of those factors can ruin even the mostly skilled owners' seasons.
Over the long haul - as in, multiple seasons - the more skilled owners tend to finish at or near the top consistently in a dynasty league. But in any given year, to think that skill plays a bigger role than luck is wishful thinking by those who think they're skilled. There's more skill involved in winning the points title than the championship, but there's way more luck involved with both.
And the longer you play this game, the more clear that gets.
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tone1oc
Footballguy
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Certainly double the skill over luck. Luck is about 30%.
Riversco
Footballguy
This happens in the NFL too. Every GM will miss more than they hit on picks. Yet I continue to see analysts grade GMs on their missed picks. The true judge of a GM is how many picks are successful.
pats3in4
Footballguy
Depends a lot on the skill of your league mates, too. I'm #2 in my league in both points and record, but some of this is thanks to opponents falling asleep at the waiver wire wheel, allowing those who pay attention to pick up guys they had no business getting. They make me look smarter and more skillful than I really am.
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