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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (22 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
I've seen just about every strategy have success and also just about every strategy not have success. I don't spend a lot of time mulling it over, I just go with what I enjoy the most. I make a lot of trades but I'm what I'd term a "go get my guy" drafter/trader and not a "go get value" drafter/trader. Both work.
Agree
Spike
Footballguy
They are all 53 man rosters (with 6 possible IR slots). Some are PPR, some are non-PPR. All are IDP.
Start 1QB/1-3RB/2-5WR/1-4TE/1PK/3DL/3LB/3DB.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Hunt
Close imo, probably would take fournette and the four.
Don't really blame you for rejecting but that offer gets done in most leagues if there's any room on the roster.
Eta - with the format you listed above, that deal is enough for most owners.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
In a vacuum, I like both guys about equally. WR is so shallow, however, that I think the position premium is worth the pick swap here, in start 3 WR leagues. If you want a young, foundation piece WR - you don't have many options right now. Whereas RB is deep and getting deeper.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'll just say it - I think Julio is fools gold in any format.
His lack of TDs hurts more than receptions/yards make up for even in PPR leagues.
His lack of TDs hurts more than receptions/yards make up for even in PPR leagues.
-OZ-
Footballguy
True. Where I have Evans it's start 3-5 WR, 1-2 RB. Young good receivers are gold.
But I like fournette a lot and figure the 4 will probably get your choice of rookie wr or can be swapped for another really good young wr.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
He had that one huge year and watching him play he should be able to do that every year. Think some are hoping things come together again.
-OZ-
Footballguy
If by fools gold you mean his name greatly exceeds value, yep. But he's still pretty darn good. Top 10 in redraft - but he'll go top 4.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I don't blame Zyph for declining it, but I'd probably take it. That's 4 shots in the draft and a couple of guys with quality bounce-back potential. I like my chances with as often as we see guys skyrocket like Michael Thomas/Hunt/Kamara - heck even OG OBJ wasn't a no-brainer 1.01 pick. I'd feel a lot better about it if Harris and Love had declared and that's part of the risk of early deals. It would also depend on the league and who has the 1.02/what they are likely to do with it. If 1.03 and 1.12 get you 1.02 and a kickback you're looking at Guice, maybe Penny at 1.05, and a guy like Anthony Miller at 1.10? Moncrief, Pryor, and a kickback 2nd/3rd rounder? I think I roll those dice.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Yes, but I'm guessing he means "outside top 20 in redraft, but he'll go top 10". That's how I see it anyway.
-OZ-
Footballguy
If we're talking ppr, Julio is a top 10 receiver. Maybe Andy disagrees going forward but that's really a minority view. Standard scoring perhaps, I don't play in any non ppr leagues (some only give half a point) so I'm not sure where he performs there.
Either way, I have never and likely never will draft Julio. Mostly just never been in a spot to do so.
I'd go Fournette here. Close between Evans and Fournette, maybe slight edge to Evans, but just in case the draft goes like last year where there was a bit of a gulf(for me) between 5 and 6 I'd take the pick upgrade.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I mean, simply, that while his total stats look pretty good, they're inflated by the random game where Atlanta remembers how much better he is than just about everyone... And that doesn't happen often enough. There are simply a lot of other guys I'd rather have at his ADP and I'm happy to let someone else draft him.
2017 fantasy season -
One game with double digit catches
12 sub-100 yard games
14 td-less games (after Falcons swore they'd give him more RZ looks)
Eight games with five or fewer catches
2017 fantasy season -
One game with double digit catches
12 sub-100 yard games
14 td-less games (after Falcons swore they'd give him more RZ looks)
Eight games with five or fewer catches
gianmarco
Footballguy
Sorry, but this is complete nonsense.
Here are his finishes over the last 5 years
2017 -- WR7
2016 -- WR6
2015 -- WR2
2014 -- WR6
2013 -- WR2 in ppg before getting hurt in week 7
How on Earth is that fool's gold? He's one of the surest things in FF with elite production. You plug and play and he can win weeks for you outright. He's had 2 years of 300+ pts.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Because those rankings are always based on total points.
I've had him on a few teams. Maybe I should say it differently - perhaps it's not fools gold but it is a roller coaster ride. Specifically, look at weeks 1, 4, 8, 13, and 15 this year. That's nearly 1/3 of the year where he got you ten or fewer points.
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mozzy84
Footballguy
I am assuming he's saying that because every year he has that 40-50 point game to drive him up the rankings. I've owned him for years and it feels that way anyways. That said I am not down on the guy, I actually like him more than most on this board.
gianmarco
Footballguy
My leagues are based on points. They aren't based on 100 yard games or how many games he goes without a TD. You plug and play and it sorts itself out. Even in down weeks he's not hurting you. He only had 3 games this year in single digits. 4 the year before. Only 1 the year before that. He's a virtual lock for double digit any given week with upside for 50 pts.
Jesus, people will nitpick anything.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I hardly know where to begin with this post.
But...My elite receiver is only scoring single digits in 25-33% of the fantasy season? That's a relief.
And if your leagues are based on points then it absolutely matters how many weeks he doesn't score a TD.
And my leagues don't give points for points guys could score but only for those he does.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
I interpreted your post as overall so that's definitely a different context.
So WR10? I guess that's borderline. OBJ, AB, Hopkins, AJG, Evans, Tyreek, Allen, Michael Thomas, Adams. I take them all over Julio easily. He was WR10 this year in PPG. There are others that are right there though that PPR bring into play - Baldwin, Cooks, Landry, Diggs.
mikel2014
Footballguy
14 team PPR
Traded: 2.05 (19th Overall)
Received: Robert Woods
I'm curious about people's thoughts on potential with Kupp vs. Woods. Other guy had both Woods and Kupp, but after the trade said "I don't think Woods has much of a future outside of two years, tops. But I think Kupp has a ton of upside." The comment was interesting to me because I've been viewing that situation the opposite.
Traded: 2.05 (19th Overall)
Received: Robert Woods
I'm curious about people's thoughts on potential with Kupp vs. Woods. Other guy had both Woods and Kupp, but after the trade said "I don't think Woods has much of a future outside of two years, tops. But I think Kupp has a ton of upside." The comment was interesting to me because I've been viewing that situation the opposite.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
That's a hugely flawed thinking. Your leagues are based on points per game. If Julio scores 21, 20, and 19 points in three games but Cooks scores 25 and 30 but misses the third game, who is more valuable? It's not like you're not starting a blank in that third game.
I think it was best to move him last year but you take everything you just listed, fact he just finished as second in receiving yards on the season, just dropped two big time playoff games and he absolutely does not deserve to be labeled fools gold. He's just gold, aging gold, but he's still gold.
This has been a concern of mine as well but wanted to add I did read some encouraging stuff yesterday from Doc Chao on his ankle. I forget the procedure he said he'd likely get this off-season, tightening maybe, but a low risk procedure that would take care of his chronic ankle and make it stronger than it was before. Which begs the question of why he did not get it done this past off-season but maybe the draft prep and need to attend off-season OTA's just did not give him the time.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Antonio Brown must be fool's gold too. He had 3 single digit weeks this year as well, same as Julio.
Welcome to the WR position and fantasy football.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
gianmarco
Footballguy
Nice circular argument. I was addressing your point of your stud WR not doing well for 25% of your season.
Call Julio fool's gold if you want. He's not, but ok. This argument is pointless.
ETA -- Julio did last year as well (20 point games). This was a "down" year for him for sure. Sarkisian was a big part of that, IMO.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
All right, you got me there.
The larger point is that JJ doesn't have enough "up" weeks to justify the draft capital you have to spend on him.
And Sarkisian is back next year.
Zyphros
Footballguy
FFPC league, I posted about the trade in the AC for roster details if you want. Don't want to take up this thread with my offer.
gianmarco
Footballguy
This year, no. Previous years, plenty of 20+ point games. Aside from Brown and OBJ, no one has been more consistent and high scoring. If you are just talking about 2017, you might have a point. But this is a dynasty thread and Julio has been a valuable asset.
Made playoffs in 6/6 FFPC leagues with three top 2 regular season finishes. Won 3 of 6 and finished 2nd in two others (look at me!!). Julio owned in 5/6. Certainly didn't hurt us as fool's gold this year despite not being a typical Julio year.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Like Andy said, that desire is fools gold.
I was screaming that Julio was a sell all year before his value dropped. That monster season was with a different Matt Ryan who force fed him an insane amount of targets. Ryan is matured now and doesn't just force the ball to one guy anymore so those days are gone. In 2016 he was a mid wr1 solely alongside Matt Ryan's best in nfl history efficiency which was also due for a huge regression.
No more force feeding targets + no more nfl record efficiency = back end wr1 upside for Julio, with his age now at a point where his value will only continue to decline.
I don't agree his upside is back end WR1. He was literally less than a fantasy point per game from being a top 4 WR this year and that was with 3 TD's and only one WR outscored him in total points that got less targets(Tyrekk) so I'm not buying an argument his upside, which to me is his best case scenario, is back end WR1 or that he needs volume/targets more than any other WR.
His age and injury history made him an ideal sale before the season but I just don't think you respect his game enough. He's still one of the the best 3-4 WR's in the game and easily so. But age and injury history will for sure likely see nothing but a value decline.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
12 Team PPR
A gets: 1.10, Woods
B gets: 1.07, 2.07
A gets: 1.10, Woods
B gets: 1.07, 2.07
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
3 points about this.
1) 1ppg isn't really an insignificant amount
2) This was a WAY down year for WR scoring, largely due to so many top tier WRs getting hurt or seeing their QBs hurt. If you added 1ppg to Julio's numbers that still would only have made him WR9 last year and WR21 in 2015 via PPG.
3) Julio was WR10 ppg this year while having a game with 12-253-2. How many of those games do we really see him having going forward? He has three 200+ yard receiving games in his 7 year career and he's not exactly getting younger.
Here is Julio's per game target data.
2013: 12.0
2014: 11.0
2015: 12.75
2016: 9.2
2017: 9.3
Matt Ryan just isn't the kind of guy to force him 200 targets anymore, and there's not a whole lot more he can do efficiency wise on ~140 targets. Maybe more TDs but he's never been a big TD guy, and his yards per catch is probably due for a regression if anything.
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To your points:
1. It's actually .75 points off (FFPC scoring) from Julio to WR4(Fitz). That is 12 points. A play. I would view that as fairly insignificant.
2. It's all relative and when you say he's a back end WR1 that is the standard in which he would be judged.
3. I got him as WR9(weeks 1-16/FFPC) but so light it's really splitting hairs. I don't know he's got a lot of 50 points games but he went for 12/300 the year before so he's got plenty of big game potential in him.
I don't agree on the Ryan not needing to force into him argument on several fronts. He's had one year like you suggest, one year where there was a need to force him the ball and he did get that kind of load and responded with a freaking massive season. He's missed some games but he's only exceeded 148 targets in a season one other time and that was 163. He's been a solid target guy, but only one year was it huge but you almost seem to suggest he was some Hopkins like target monster all these years. And again it's relative because only one WR ahead of him in PPG scoring had less targets so it's not like his success is target driven anymore than anyone else and for sure less than some .
The other part that argument I don't agree with is that Ryan's experience is a reason he'd see less targets. Just the way the offense goes sometimes. He got 10 and 16 targets in teh two playoff gamesWe've seen plenty of QB's with more experience then Ryan highly target their top WR. Big Ben to Brown would be one example.
I don't disagree that the time to move him was last offseason and he's already lost value so correct call and I agree with you he's likely going on a steady decline in terms of dynasty value. I've personally never thought he'd hold up as well as Brown or AJ Green because of the injury history and he just plays a more physical style. But all that being said he'll still a stud, I think he's the second or third best WR in the NFL, and for sure think his current upside is a lot better than low end WR1 and I still contend you just don't respect how really great he is/was enough.
We probably should have taken this to the Julio thread, lol.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Just an FYI:
Games missed by Julio over the last 4 years: 3 total
Games missed by Brown over the last 4 years: 3 total
Games missed by AJG over the last 4 years: 9 total
Julio gets this "injury" label because he gets nicked but he's almost always on the field. Other than his big injury in 2013, he's missed a total of 7 games in the other 6 years of his career.
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True but I'm talking about trying to forecast where they like about 2 seasons from now. I don't think Julio is going to retire early but I think he takes a pounding, just feel like it will take it's toll.
Green and Brown are just more finesse players so just always thought they would hold up better but the way Green finished the season that's not an easy argument to make right now.
One More Rep
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Fun fact. Fournette already has as many RB1 seasons as Evans has WR1 seasons.
Evans is an interesting case to me. Solid and steady, but he hasn't really been a fantasy difference maker for most of his career. He's been mostly a WR2. Yet as a guy who's only been a WR1 once in 4 seasons he still winds up in the same tier as OBJ who has been a top 5 PPG player in each of his 4 years.
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Another fun Fournette fact. He was the only player in the NFL to clock over 22 MPH on scoring play last year and he ended up having the first and second fasted timed foot speed on scores last season. That's pretty impressive considering his size.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Antonio Brown is the exception. The other “elite” WRs typically have multiple single digit games and then a bunch of 10-16 pointers with a few 20 point + and one or two 30 plus. AJ green and many others are no different than Julio.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Let’s say they retain Watkins as they said they would franchise him if necessary. Coming in late after getting traded he didn’t get a chance to build a rapport with goff and had to learn the offense on the fly. I expect him to command more targets, which will come from somewhere. I like woods and Kupp but I don’t expect them to best what they did this year.
JPeso
Footballguy
JPeso
Footballguy
FFPC
Also the team I dealt to, though finished 4th this season, I don't see as a viable threat even after the trade. Now of course he could draft the next Kareem Hunt at 1.12 and maybe that changes, but that is the risk I take.
Core:
- Gave Demaryius Thomas, Kelvin Benjamin, 1.12
- Got JuJu Smith-Schuster, 3.9
Also the team I dealt to, though finished 4th this season, I don't see as a viable threat even after the trade. Now of course he could draft the next Kareem Hunt at 1.12 and maybe that changes, but that is the risk I take.
Core:
- Cam
- Gurley, Gordon, Ingram, Duke, Coleman
- Julio, Hill, JuJu, Gordon, Shepard
- Gronk, Kelce (1.5 PPR)
- Watson, Roeth, Cousins
- Miller, Murray, Ivory, AP, Martin
- Landry, DT, Crabtree, KB, Wallace
- Graham (1.5 PPR)
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Nice to consolidate assets in ffpc. I’m not in any ffpc but from what I’ve gathered over the years it’s smaller rosters, and while I like DT to bounce back with a qb upgrade it’s a nice out on him and kB. With guys like Harris and love heading back to school it’s sapped some of the talent at the end of rd 1.
