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So Brexit is really going to happen on June 23rd? (1 Viewer)

OK, so if Brexit happens...

We join a free trade agreement with the UK & allow the queen to assume titular role as leader of the US for 4 year so we don't have to choose between Trump & Hillary.

SCOTUS stays at 8 & the speaker of the house approves all budgets till we get candidates with positive approval ratings.

 
No surprise, but Trump has come out in favor of Brexit, while Obama and Hillary recognize that it could lead to economic catastrophe (and bad news for us as well!) 

 
GroveDiesel said:
Looks like Remain is going to win today. It will be fascinating. I'm somewhat surprised that so many people are OK with essentially agreeing to be a post-democratic country and concentrating authority and control in international elites.
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Things are starting to get creepy...it feels like we are entering a "James Bond" movie where the ruling elites do what they want as long as it benefits themselves...

 
GroveDiesel said:
Looks like Remain is going to win today. It will be fascinating. I'm somewhat surprised that so many people are OK with essentially agreeing to be a post-democratic country and concentrating authority and control in international elites.
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This is being driven by the same silly good-old-days/fear of immigrants stuff that is happening here.  Has very little to do with the guys in Brussels..

 
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massraider said:
This is being driven by the same silly good-old-days/fear of immigrants stuff that is happening here.  Has very little to do with the guys in Brussels..
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A nation's desire to maintain their centuries old cultural identity built by and passed down by their ancestors is not "silly good-old-days" paranoia.  It's a legitimate grievance.  That's why Eastern European states have pushed back against the EU's immigration and refugee plans to a far greater degree than Western European nations.  Those Eastern European nations had much of their cultural identity stripped under the Soviet Union, they realize the importance of cultural identity and having independent sovereignty on culture shifting issues, and they don't want an outside, foreign bureaucracy controlling them on these issues.

Will you at least acknowledge given the numerous Islamist terrorist incidents in Europe that some fear is justified?

And even if you believe that Brexit and a similar 'Leave EU' sentiment throughout Europe is driven more by immigration concerns than sovereignty concerns (and you may be right, though the two are intertwined), it still very much has to do with "guys (and gals) in Brussels"*.  Though, admittedly, both Blair and Cameron likely would have followed their unpopular immigration policies regardless of the EU.

* Linky

 
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Gary Coal Man said:
A nation's desire to maintain their centuries old cultural identity built by and passed down by their ancestors is not "silly good-old-days" paranoia, it's a legitimate grievance.  That's why Eastern European states have pushed back against the EU's immigration and refugee plans to a far greater degree than Western European nations.  Those Eastern European nations had much of their cultural identity stripped under the Soviet Union, they realize the importance cultural identity and independent sovereignty on culture shifting issues, and they don't want an outside, foreign bureaucracy controlling them on these issues.

Will you at least acknowledge given the numerous Islamist terrorist incidents in Europe that some fear is justified?

And even if you believe that Brexit and a similar 'Leave EU' sentiment throughout Europe is driven more by immigration concerns than sovereignty concerns (and you may be right, though the two are intertwined), it still very much has to do with "guys (and gals) in Brussels"*.  Though, admittedly, both Blair and Cameron likely would have followed their unpopular immigration policies regardless of the EU.

* Linky
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I just moved back from England. In London,  where I lived,  the culture is multi-cultural. 

The financial reasons for not doing this are many.  If it wasn't for misplaced nationalism, this vote wouldn't have a chance. 

England's cultural identity is in no danger.  They have more history scattered around that damn country then anywhere else.  You think it's in the same danger as some E.European dump? Of course not. 

By the way,  regarding your question: Heck yes,  I believe there is a reason to fear open borders, radical Islam, etc.  I don't think Brexit fixes any of those issues,  it only financially hurts the country. 

 
The odds are coming back at about 25% of a Brexit right now through sportsbooks, they usually know. I'd say this doesn't happen, but it is closer than originally expected. 

FTR, I have a heavy bet in oil right now, with no Brexit, it should go up. If the Brexit happens, I'm going to get slaughtered.

 
massraider said:
This is being driven by the same silly good-old-days/fear of immigrants stuff that is happening here.  Has very little to do with the guys in Brussels..
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I think there's a portion of folks who are very loud that feel this way, but this issue is way bigger than that. The number of laws and regulations that impact the average citizen there is about 9 times more than just 20 years ago. And the vast vast majority of those rules and regulations the English people themselves had zero voice in. This vote is essentially a vote on whether to take back an actual representative government, or to assent to their legislature being essentially a figurehead like the Queen and nothing more.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Looks like Remain is going to win today. It will be fascinating. I'm somewhat surprised that so many people are OK with essentially agreeing to be a post-democratic country and concentrating authority and control in international elites.
Click to expand...
Damn. Would be so much better for them to leave. They've really brainwashed their citizens. Can't see what's obviously in front of them as the best option for their future. 

 
Philo said:
Damn. Would be so much better for them to leave. They've really brainwashed their citizens. Can't see what's obviously in front of them as the best option for their future. 
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Why is that the best option for their future?  And why is it obvious? 

 
GroveDiesel said:
I think there's a portion of folks who are very loud that feel this way, but this issue is way bigger than that. The number of laws and regulations that impact the average citizen there is about 9 times more than just 20 years ago. And the vast vast majority of those rules and regulations the English people themselves had zero voice in. This vote is essentially a vote on whether to take back an actual representative government, or to assent to their legislature being essentially a figurehead like the Queen and nothing more.
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There was this video trying to make this point and using a pillow. They said there were some huge numbers of regulations on the pillow. Like over 100. The problem was when you looked at the regs it turned out that an awful lot of them just had the word pillow used somewhere in the language of the reg and had nothing to do with a bed pillow as the ad suggested. And Brexit doesn't change anything on that front anyway. If you want to sell to the EU you still have to follow their rules. So that's a real silly reason that doesn't stand up to even a seconds scrutiny.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Looks like Remain is going to win today. It will be fascinating. I'm somewhat surprised that so many people are OK with essentially agreeing to be a post-democratic country and concentrating authority and control in international elites.
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Though based on the amount of votes being cast, if the vote is close either way it'll probably come up again.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Where is anyone seeing live odds? Isn't exit polling illegal there.
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I got that off a British site. Not sure where they are getting info although exit polls aren't illegal. In fact there will be exit polls published after 10 pm UK time. Private individuals can and do spend money running their own exit polling and maybe bookies are getting some info from that kind of thing.

 
Well to be fair no one knows exactly what would happen. However it seems likely based on numerous studies the economy of the UK would suffer for an extended time, several years, a reduction in economic activity. London may be pushed out as a major financial center which would certainly hurt the UK to the tune of billions lost. And at the end of the day for that not to happen they would have to do trade deals that would effectively be the same thing as being in the EU. Have to abide by all the same rules just don't get any say at all. Now what it does to the EU economy is a bigger mystery. My guess is if they pull out several countries follow suit and the whole thing unravels when Germany gets tired of carrying all the weight.

 
The pound just dropped 6%.

This is extremely close, much closer than thought. If leave happens, market is going to get slaughtered tomorrow. 

 
msommer said:
The current coun tis 50.5% leave, but that's five out of 382 counties.

Exit polls suggest 52% Bremain
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Leave coming out strong. Weather issues in London lowered turnout. This one is gonna shock the world and markets tomorrow. Gonna be a brutal day

 
Still pretty early, but each new result not changing it much right now.  51.5-48.5 to leave -- does look like it's going to be super close.  

 
52.1 to 47.9 with another couple hundred thousand votes.  No idea what the distribution of these votes is, and I suspect they're not random at all, but if they were random it would be just about enough to call it for Leave.  Very bad start if you want Britain to stay in Europe.

And while I was typing... boom.  50.6 to 49.4.  So too early to tell if those kinds of swings possible.

 
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On BBC they are indicating "leave" is doing better than "expected". Glad I have kept some cash on the sideline in case market is down tomorrow. But if this starts a contagion of "leaves" we all may be hosed.

 
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If Leave wins, the important lessons to remember: In 2016: pollsters suck, betting markets suck, the people are fed up and this kind of surprising win would just be a prequel to the Trump Boom in November.

This whole thing is their Make England Great Again. If Leave can pull this off, no doubt Trump can ride almost exactly the same sentiments to victory in a few months.

 
Does anyone else think this could be a preview of our own election in November? That no matter how poorly Trump does between now and then, it will be really close when people actually vote and that he just might win it? 

 
Philo said:
If Leave wins, the important lessons to remember: In 2016: pollsters suck, betting markets suck, the people are fed up and this kind of surprising win would just be a prequel to the Trump Boom in November.

This whole thing is their Make England Great Again. If Leave can pull this off, no doubt Trump can ride almost exactly the same sentiments to victory in a few months.
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This is a false equivalency but good luck with this hope.  

 
timschochet said:
Does anyone else think this could be a preview of our own election in November? That no matter how poorly Trump does between now and then, it will be really close when people actually vote and that he just might win it? 
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Yes, it could be. The pollsters blew it with Reagan, too, I believe.

 
timschochet said:
Does anyone else think this could be a preview of our own election in November? That no matter how poorly Trump does between now and then, it will be really close when people actually vote and that he just might win it? 
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One post up. Trump is selling the same story as Leave did. No doubt it could have a similar result. We're dealing with the same issues and people may want the same answers. 

 
Phil Elliott said:
On BBC they are indicating "leave" is doing better than "expected". Glad I have kept some cash on the sideline in case market is down tomorrow. But if this starts a contagion of "leaves" we all may be hosed.
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If leave comes through, going to be a :tfp:  tomorrow in equity markets.

 
Philo said:
One post up. Trump is selling the same story as Leave did. No doubt it could have a similar result. We're dealing with the same issues and people may want the same answers. 
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It scares me mightily and I hate to think of it. But no doubt it could happen...

 
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