moleculo
Footballguy
TL;DR> TE's and QB's are underrated, RB's are overrated.
using free projections from around the web (FFToday, Fantasy Sharks, ESPN, CBS). I have generated a set of VBD rankings assuming PPR and 4 points per passing TD. I was curious to see how this VBD ranking compares to average draft position (using ADP from fantasyfootballcalculator.com, but the general trend seems to hold). Comparing player to player and seeing the number of spots isn't a very good way to do this because a difference of a few spots in round 1 is much more significant than a few spots in round 10.
Instead, I use the draft trade chart to determine value in both VBD rankings and ADP rankings, and compared the difference. Here's how it works: Cam Newton, for example, has a VBD value of 78 points. That places him 18th overall, worth 900 points. In ADP, Cam is being drafted at 3.11: good for 550 points. comparing the two, Newton is undervalued by 350 points.
I do this for all players, and I have a good sense of who is underrated and who is overrated (per my projections and ADP).
the top 10 underrated players:
a clear pattern emerges: TE dominates the underrated list and RB dominates the overrated list. I only displayed the top 10 of each list, but if I extend out to 20, 5 of the top 20 are QB's and 8 are TE's. There are no TE's or QB's anywhere on the overrated side. Conversely, 16 RB's are overrated (none underrated). That being said, I'm not sure what to do with that info. If your league has an early run on RB's and you miss out, that puts you in a bad spot if you bulk up on QB's and TE's. It's important to keep ADP in mind and try to stay ahead of the runs, IMO.
a few points to note:
If you believe in VBD and last-starter baseline, you should go into the draft with the understanding that nearly all TE's are underrated and many QB's are. You should be aware that nearly all RB's are being drafted earlier than they should be. That being said, the clear trend of most RB's being overvalued and TE's being undervalued leads me to think that worst-starter may not be an appropriate baseline. to be continued...
using free projections from around the web (FFToday, Fantasy Sharks, ESPN, CBS). I have generated a set of VBD rankings assuming PPR and 4 points per passing TD. I was curious to see how this VBD ranking compares to average draft position (using ADP from fantasyfootballcalculator.com, but the general trend seems to hold). Comparing player to player and seeing the number of spots isn't a very good way to do this because a difference of a few spots in round 1 is much more significant than a few spots in round 10.
Instead, I use the draft trade chart to determine value in both VBD rankings and ADP rankings, and compared the difference. Here's how it works: Cam Newton, for example, has a VBD value of 78 points. That places him 18th overall, worth 900 points. In ADP, Cam is being drafted at 3.11: good for 550 points. comparing the two, Newton is undervalued by 350 points.
I do this for all players, and I have a good sense of who is underrated and who is overrated (per my projections and ADP).
the top 10 underrated players:
- Rob Gronkowsk NE
- Jordan Reed WAS
- Alshon Jeffery CHI
- Keenan Allen SD
- Cam Newton CAR
- Russel Wilson SEA
- Travis Kelce KC
- Antoni Gates SD
- Zach Ertz PHI
- Tom Brady NE
- Adrian Peterson MIN
- Ezekiel Elliott DAL
- Dion Lewis NE
- Allen Robinson JAC
- Le'Veon Bell PIT
- Thomas Rawls SEA
- Eddie Lacy GB
- A.J. Green CIN
- Lamar Miller HOU
- Josh Gordon CLE
a clear pattern emerges: TE dominates the underrated list and RB dominates the overrated list. I only displayed the top 10 of each list, but if I extend out to 20, 5 of the top 20 are QB's and 8 are TE's. There are no TE's or QB's anywhere on the overrated side. Conversely, 16 RB's are overrated (none underrated). That being said, I'm not sure what to do with that info. If your league has an early run on RB's and you miss out, that puts you in a bad spot if you bulk up on QB's and TE's. It's important to keep ADP in mind and try to stay ahead of the runs, IMO.
a few points to note:
- For Brady, I prorated his projections so he should be drafted as if he were playing 16 games.
- ADP data is an average of drafts, many of which happened before Dion Lewis injury news was out there. Also, LeVeon Bell's suspension.
- I can get these to shift around by playing with the relative baselines. The above uses worst starter as VBD baseline. I will continue to tweak to see if I can find a better balance.
If you believe in VBD and last-starter baseline, you should go into the draft with the understanding that nearly all TE's are underrated and many QB's are. You should be aware that nearly all RB's are being drafted earlier than they should be. That being said, the clear trend of most RB's being overvalued and TE's being undervalued leads me to think that worst-starter may not be an appropriate baseline. to be continued...
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