Joe needs to invest in a Remind-Me bot. It would be interesting to look back on this. With the benefit of hindsight we’ll be able to see if your prediction about my prediction was absolutely false or not. In the meantime, it feels like an arduous conversation that I’d rather avoid. We’ll see (if one of us remembers).
Not trying to have an arduous conversation. Sorry about that.
This started by you saying you like Mike Williams. I like him too, and I own him in 1 of my 2 dynasty leagues.
But I don't see a lot of upside for him over his 2018 performance in the short term unless Allen gets hurt. Williams will probably get more targets than last season if healthy, but I'd be surprised if it was a lot more unless Allen misses games. And, while Williams is a very good red zone threat, I am skeptical he will sustain his TD per target rate, which was second best in the league last year among players with at least 20 targets, second only to Kareem Hunt. TE Henry returns, and he is also a strong red zone threat. So more targets for Williams may not drive his fantasy production up compared to 2018.
As for more passing, consider that it wasn't just about passing attempts, it was about offensive philosophy and pace. The Chargers ran 945 offensive plays last season, 5th fewest in the league. It wasn't because they weren't good enough on offense to sustain drives... it was because of Lynn's offensive philosophy.
That occurred last season despite the fact that the defense was not as good as it was expected to be, primarily due to missing 70 defensive starts to injury. The defense should be top 5 this season and could be #1, as long as they don't have another rash of serious injuries like last season. If they do perform better, that just further empowers Lynn to run the conservative offense he prefers.
All that said, the Chargers attempted 512 passes last season, which is a very low number. So perhaps I should have been more qualified in my earlier responses. They could attempt more, but I don't think it would be many more unless Gordon misses a lot of games, and they could just as easily have fewer attempts.
The Chargers also signed Lynn favorite Tyrod Taylor. He is easily the best backup QB the team has had since Rivers began starting in 2006. There has been some speculation that Lynn may intend to use Taylor in certain situations, like short yardage, or as a player like Taysom Hill for the Saints. I hope they don't do that, since IMO playing Taylor for a single meaningful snap at QB with Rivers healthy is a stupid idea (just as I think pulling Brees for Hill is stupid). But it seems pretty likely that Taylor will attempt more passes in 2019 than the 4.4 attempts Rivers' backups have averaged per season over the last 5 years. So more attempts for the team does not necessarily mean Rivers will have more attempts.
Edit: All 5 projections I’ve found have Rivers’ attempts increasing.
I don't give this much weight. Many projections are data driven and utilize multiple seasons of data while failing to adjust for changing situations. Most of what I posted above is deeper information on Rivers and the Chargers than I think most people who do projections go.
