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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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5 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

That’s fair to note. It’s also fair to note that Robinson’s playoff performance - his best of the season and an obvious outlier - came against the worst secondary in the league, at that point in the season. Philly was missing their top 3 corners and starting guys they picked up off of waivers.

Those per/16 numbers look great, but I’m not sure they mean anything. 

10/143/1 = 30.3 points

His best game was 6/133/2 = 31.3 points

So maybe two outliers? :P

Players have bizarre 8 game splits all the time, so you're right they don't mean much. But when a player is semi-healthy for one (he was still on the injury report with a hip injury in the second half of the season) and injured for the other, I give the splits a little closer attention.

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So in PPR I have the split between the first 8 games played with Green and the next 6 played without Green breaking down as follows:

With Green, Boyd earned 17.7 FPs per game

W/O Green, Boyd earned 13.3 FPs per game

This is just one look at it, I'm not saying this is proof positive or anything. Take it as you will. Also, Boyd did better with Driskel than he did with Dalton (in games without Green). Not saying he can't be a productive WR without Green, and I actually really like him, but I'm not sure we can say he would produce as well without him drawing coverage away. In his first 8 games with both Green and Dalton, he scored over 20 FPs 5 times. Once without Green in 6 attempts, thanks to a garbage time TD pass by Driskel in a game they were down 35-7.

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9 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

That’s fair to note. It’s also fair to note that Robinson’s playoff performance - his best of the season and an obvious outlier - came against the worst secondary in the league, at that point in the season. Philly was missing their top 3 corners and starting guys they picked up off of waivers.

Those per/16 numbers look great, but I’m not sure they mean anything. 

Sure but when we are talking about WR2's that's generally how things go.  ARob and Boyd both had 3 games that really stand out against the rest of their season, with Boyd's best likewise coming against an awful defense (Tampa).

Amari Cooper had 2 games with 40+ fantasy points, and 8 games with single digit points.  Chris Godwin was two big games and a bag of chips and people can't wait to get their hands on him.

Cooper is actually a really interesting comparison.

Cooper after going to Dallas
16.8
13.5
6.6
38.0
13.6
49.7
8.3
6.0
6.1

ARob after finally sitting out and letting the groin heal up
31.3
6.9
5.7
12.2
9.2
8.4
13.4
30.3

They both had 4 games in single digits, 2 games of 30+, and the rest of the games in the teens.

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Just now, FreeBaGeL said:

Sure but when we are talking about WR2's that's generally how things go.  ARob and Boyd both had 3 games that really stand out against the rest of their season, with Boyd's best likewise coming against an awful defense (Tampa).

Amari Cooper had 2 games with 40+ fantasy points, and 8 games with single digit points.  Chris Godwin was two big games and a bag of chips and people can't wait to get their hands on him.

Cooper is actually a really interesting comparison.

Cooper after going to Dallas
16.8
13.5
6.6
38.0
13.6
49.7
8.3
6.0
6.1

ARob after finally sitting out and letting the groin heal up
31.3
6.9
5.7
12.2
9.2
8.4
13.4
30.3

They both had 4 games in single digits, 2 games of 30+, and the rest of the games in the teens.

Boyd scored in double digits in 9 of his 14 games. He scored 20 points in 6 of them. 25 points “really stands out” in 28, 25, 25, 21, 21, 21? I’m not sure what you’re getting at here. Even cherry picking games, Robinson wasn’t nearly as consistent. 

And why are you including playoff games for Robinson but not Cooper? That makes no sense. Be consistent and the comparison falls apart.

 

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4 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

And why are you including playoff games for Robinson but not Cooper? That makes no sense. Be consistent and the comparison falls apart.

:lmao: honestly I forgot Dallas even made the playoffs, I guess I am so used to them disappointing now it's just pre-programmed in my brain.  Fair point, as Cooper had 2 good games in the playoffs as well (17pts and 18pts).

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Price check on DJ Moore in PPR? I am trying to get Allen Robinson off his owner & he wants DJ Moore + Lamar Miller for him. I felt that was too high & so does every trade calculator. I know Miller's value is not high, but decent depth is nice to have IMO.

Would countering with Robby Anderson instead of DJ be fair or should I just take his offer?

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1 minute ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Price check on DJ Moore in PPR? I am trying to get Allen Robinson off his owner & he wants DJ Moore + Lamar Miller for him. I felt that was too high & so does every trade calculator. I know Miller's value is not high, but decent depth is nice to have IMO.

Would countering with Robby Anderson instead of DJ be fair or should I just take his offer?

Moore is more valuable than Robinson straight up. 

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2 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Price check on DJ Moore in PPR? I am trying to get Allen Robinson off his owner & he wants DJ Moore + Lamar Miller for him. I felt that was too high & so does every trade calculator. I know Miller's value is not high, but decent depth is nice to have IMO.

Would countering with Robby Anderson instead of DJ be fair or should I just take his offer?

I'd call that way too much for Robinson. DJ Moore is a WR2 in my opinion, who is what 23? Moore is also an undisputed #1 WR, and showed some major big play ability last year. 

Anderson and Miller for Robinson is a fair offer. I'm not a Robby Anderson guy at all though. I think he's got an interesting situation, I just don't trust him to stay on the field at all, plus he's an impending FA. 

Basically, Moore>Robinson>>Miller>Anderson

 

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I have DJ Moore on one team and I basically consider him untouchable.

Sometimes these guys never live up to the ceiling we imagine, but he's the type of guy who can make you regret that for years and years.

Freak athlete on paper and it translates to the field. We may just be scratching the surface.

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9 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Price check on DJ Moore in PPR? I am trying to get Allen Robinson off his owner & he wants DJ Moore + Lamar Miller for him. I felt that was too high & so does every trade calculator. I know Miller's value is not high, but decent depth is nice to have IMO.

Would countering with Robby Anderson instead of DJ be fair or should I just take his offer?

Redraft I'd say Moore & Robinson are fairly even (if you believe in Robinson, which I don't) and in dynasty it would take Robinson + for me to give up Moore. (I don't own either, anywhere)

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On 5/6/2019 at 2:45 PM, Flying Elvis said:

Price check on Mike Williams WR LAC... anyone seeing him in trades? 

Most trade calculators / value charts / etc. seem to have him worth less than I'd trade him for but nobody is biting in leagues where I try to acquire him.

 

Anyone care to circle back around to this one? 

Anyone?

Beuller?

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20 minutes ago, Flying Elvis said:

Anyone care to circle back around to this one? 

Anyone?

Beuller?

I'd put Mike Williams around 1.5. He's got a lot going for him, big TD threat, also gets a lot of deep passes, and was a top-10 pick, who looked much improved in year 2. However, its unlikely he passes Keenan Allen anytime soon, and who knows how long Rivers has. Tyrell Williams leaving is offset by the return of Hunter Henry. 

I'd be feeling fine with Williams as a WR3.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Flying Elvis said:

Anyone care to circle back around to this one? 

Anyone?

Beuller?

Williams is big targets of mine this off-season. I traded a late 2020 1st, late 2020 2nd, and Matt Ryan in a 12 Tm, 4pt passing TD, PPR league. I was stoked to get him for that.

In terms of 2019 rookie picks - I’d trade him for Jacobs without thought. I might prefer Harry, but it’s close. So I personally value him in the 1.02 - 1.03 range, but he should come cheaper than that.

i don’t think his situation is a negative. He doesn’t need a ton of targets to score points and if he’s the real deal, he’ll get plenty. And the Chargers are likely to throw a lot more than they did last season, as they have in the past. 

He has elite traits, but needs to get separation more consistently. If he can sharpen his routes, he can be a top 10 fantasy WR. If he can’t or doesn’t, I think he’s a TD dependent WR3.

Edited by Concept Coop
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46 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Price check on DJ Moore in PPR? I am trying to get Allen Robinson off his owner & he wants DJ Moore + Lamar Miller for him. I felt that was too high & so does every trade calculator. I know Miller's value is not high, but decent depth is nice to have IMO.

Would countering with Robby Anderson instead of DJ be fair or should I just take his offer?

According to ADP data, Moore is at 38 overall which is 10 before Robinson, so the other guy should pay extra.

30 minutes ago, Flying Elvis said:

Anyone care to circle back around to this one? 

Anyone?

Beuller?

His ADP is 53, right ahead of Boyd.

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42 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Williams is one of my big targets this off-season. I traded a late 2020 1st, late 2020 2nd, and Matt Ryan in a 12 Tm, PPR, 4 pt passing TD league. I was stoked to get him for that.

In terms of 2019 rookie picks - I’d trade him for Jacobs without thought. I might prefer Harry, but it’s close. So I personally value him in the 1.02 - 1.03 range, but he should come cheaper than that.

i don’t think his situation is a negative. He doesn’t need a ton of targets to score points and if he’s the real deal, he’ll get plenty. The Chargers are likely to throw a lot more than they did last season.

He has elite traits, but needs to get separation more consistently. If he can sharpen his routes, he can be a top 10 fantasy WR. If he can’t or doesn’t, I think he’s a TD dependent WR3.

Awesome... that first one is a nice barometer. 

 

Thanks for the replies @travdogg and @FF Ninja

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1 hour ago, travdogg said:

DJ Moore is a WR2 in my opinion, who is what 23?

Not even.  He just turned 22.

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7 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

And the Chargers are likely to throw a lot more than they did last season, as they have in the past.

This is false, barring injuries. Reasons:

  1. HC Lynn wants a balanced offense. And when I say balanced, Lynn really wants something more skewed toward the run than true balance.
  2. The Chargers OL was near the bottom of the league at pass blocking but was somewhat better at run blocking. The team did not take any significant steps to improve the pass blocking.
  3. The Chargers defense is positioned to be elite in 2019 and beyond. How far beyond is hard to predict given injuries, contracts, etc. But for 2019, there is no reason to expect more passing, given that the defense should be even better than it was last year.
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5 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

This is false, barring injuries. Reasons:

  1. HC Lynn wants a balanced offense. And when I say balanced, Lynn really wants something more skewed toward the run than true balance.
  2. The Chargers OL was near the bottom of the league at pass blocking but was somewhat better at run blocking. The team did not take any significant steps to improve the pass blocking.
  3. The Chargers defense is positioned to be elite in 2019 and beyond. How far beyond is hard to predict given injuries, contracts, etc. But for 2019, there is no reason to expect more passing, given that the defense should be even better than it was last year.

It can’t be false, as next season hasn’t happened yet. But I understand that you disagree. 

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17 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

It can’t be false, as next season hasn’t happened yet. But I understand that you disagree. 

With all due respect, it is absolutely false that "the Chargers are likely to throw a lot more than they did last season." 'Likely' being the word that makes it false.

If you disagree, please post some actual reasons other than "as they have in the past" when the past doesn't reflect their actual coaching and roster makeup for 2019.

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While we still have Moore on topic, I have to give up either Julio Jones or Moore from my roster (arcane rule, but 10 team standard scoring, start 3 WR league - I also own M.Thomas and D.Hopkins).  Question is really who is more valuable going forward. I'll be glad, I think, for Julio this year and probably next, but may want Moore for the next 10.

I think the question is broader, figuring out how to quantify the futures of young upstarts WRs with high-ceiling futures compared with 30 year old superstars.

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8 minutes ago, Catbird said:

While we still have Moore on topic, I have to give up either Julio Jones or Moore from my roster (arcane rule, but 10 team standard scoring, start 3 WR league - I also own M.Thomas and D.Hopkins).  Question is really who is more valuable going forward. I'll be glad, I think, for Julio this year and probably next, but may want Moore for the next 10.

I think the question is broader, figuring out how to quantify the futures of young upstarts WRs with high-ceiling futures compared with 30 year old superstars.

I'd still take Julio over Moore by a wide margin. If Julio were 34 or something, maybe I'd feel differently, or if Moore had at least a high-end WR2 season to his name. But I wouldn't take a very good 22 year old prospect over a 30 year old stud. 

I sometimes feel as though owners make a mistake in planning too far in the future with their teams. DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham are the only guys I have in my main dynasty league that have been on my team for at least 5 years. Too much can change to ever look beyond 3-4 years in my opinion. 

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

With all due respect, it is absolutely false that "the Chargers are likely to throw a lot more than they did last season." 'Likely' being the word that makes it false.

If you disagree, please post some actual reasons other than "as they have in the past" when the past doesn't reflect their actual coaching and roster makeup for 2019.

Joe needs to invest in a Remind-Me bot. It would be interesting to look back on this. With the benefit of hindsight we’ll be able to see if your prediction about my prediction was absolutely false or not. In the meantime, it feels like an arduous conversation that I’d rather avoid. We’ll see (if one of us remembers).

Edit: All 5 projections I’ve found have Rivers’ attempts increasing. 

Edited by Concept Coop

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Posted (edited)

This is such an awesome thread.  You folks rule.

Much appreciation for sharing.

Offered Arob and Big Ben for Moore to a savvy owner who i thought could use a short term QB upgrade.  He seems to have disagreed and rejected with no counter.  Not sure how i'll proceed but clearly i need to add quite a lot more if i want him.  

Edited by battlestar
none of your beeswax
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2 hours ago, Catbird said:

While we still have Moore on topic, I have to give up either Julio Jones or Moore from my roster (arcane rule, but 10 team standard scoring, start 3 WR league - I also own M.Thomas and D.Hopkins).  Question is really who is more valuable going forward. I'll be glad, I think, for Julio this year and probably next, but may want Moore for the next 10.

I think the question is broader, figuring out how to quantify the futures of young upstarts WRs with high-ceiling futures compared with 30 year old superstars.

I like Moore a lot, but I say Julio.

Earlier this offseason I ran some numbers to try to compare the remaining career VBD of young promising WRs vs. superstar vets - the results are here and they also favor Julio.

Also, if this rule limiting your ability to keep WRs arises regularly then that pushes further in the direction of keeping Julio over Moore. The more restrictive that your league is at letting you keep players, the more that increases the value of win-now production over future potential.

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Rookie ADP with my thoughts on some good values and players I'd avoid.

1 - WR N'Keal Harry

2 - RB Josh Jacobs

3 - RB Miles Sanders

4 - RB David Montgomery - Instant impact potential, but questionable staying power.

5 - WR AJ Brown

6 - WR DK Metcalf - Too much emphasis on physical traits. As of right now he's an underachiever.

7 - TE TJ Hockenson

8 - WR Parris Campbell - I sort of get it because he's fast and his QB is great. I don't think he's hopeless, but this is too high for me.

9 - WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside - Makes sense in terms of situation and NFL draft position, but I'm way down on his game.

10 - WR Deebo Samuel - A top 5 player on my board. He does a lot of things well and could be an impact rookie on a team with suspect WRs.

11 - TE Noah Fant

12 - QB Kyler Murray

13 - WR Hakeem Butler - Overrated. Tall, but not that bulky to be a possession guy and not a precise route runner or technician. Dissed by the NFL in the draft.

14 - WR Marquise Brown - The only WR chosen in the first round and he's available late. Suspect offense, but he's fast with DeSean Jackson potential.

15 - WR Andy Isabella

16 - WR Mecole Hardman

17 - RB Darrell Henderson - I'm not 100% sold, but this is low for a guy with his draft slot and track record of big plays. I guess it's the depth chart logjam scaring people.

18 - RB Damien Harris - I like him more than I probably should. This is a nice price for a guy with a decent, albeit not great three down skill set.

19 - RB Justice Hill - Unspectacular prospect being overdrafted for short-term opportunity, which is a species of player I usually avoid.

20 - TE Irv Smith

21 - QB Dwayne Haskins

22 - RB Devin Singletary - As with Henderson, I'm not sold, but you're getting a day two back behind an aging starter in the late 2nd. It's low risk.

23 - WR Kelvin Harmon - As with Butler, his pre-draft hype has skewed perception of a guy the NFL obviously doesn't love.

24 - WR Miles Boykin

25 - WR Diontae Johnson - The film is just "meh" for me. At this price though, I like the upside of a day two WR chosen by Pitt. How long can Ben last?

 

I'm stopping there, but I really like the late TE value and not much else beyond this point. Warring, Knox, and Sternberger are all well worth a round three punt. Oliver has a pulse as well. I really didn't care for the day three prospects this year and don't have any favorites there.

There's an argument that Kyler is being underdrafted.

It's kind of a dire year, but my rough draft blueprint is to target Jacobs/Sanders/AJBrown/Deebo/Harry in the top 5 and then look to Deebo and MBrown in the late 1st. In the second round I'm intrigued by Isabella, Harris, Henderson, Singletary, and Johnson. I think Mattison, while not a great talent, is draftable over some of these guys.

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8 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Joe needs to invest in a Remind-Me bot.

:goodposting:

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8 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Joe needs to invest in a Remind-Me bot.

Until then you can just set an alert in Google calendar.

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Thoughts on Cam Newton? Do we expect him to age less gracefully than QBs who don’t take those extra hits? Or is he enough of a physical freak to keep taking them into his 30s? 

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, EBF said:

17 - RB Darrell Henderson - I'm not 100% sold, but this is low for a guy with his draft slot and track record of big plays. I guess it's the depth chart logjam scaring...

I think Henderson landed in a goldmine of a situation, outside of Gurley. Wide open, one-cut offense, light boxes, screens galore. It’s easy to see him doing damage in chunks. He could be a league winner, if anything happens to Gurley. 

Compare that to Montgomery’s situation: Clear path to boring, early down work, likely low end RB2 numbers. (And I could be wrong, of course.) 

Henderson is hard for me to evaluate, in part because so many of his big plays came from wide open holes against light fronts. But it’s easy to see him getting similar looks in LAR, and easy to see him doing more with those looks than CJ Anderson, who had some monster games down the stretch.

All that to say that I’m really coming around on Henderson and - for most of my  rosters, at least - I prefer him to Montgomery. Give me the upside over the immediate baseline production.

Edited by Concept Coop
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13 hours ago, Catbird said:

While we still have Moore on topic, I have to give up either Julio Jones or Moore from my roster (arcane rule, but 10 team standard scoring, start 3 WR league - I also own M.Thomas and D.Hopkins).  Question is really who is more valuable going forward. I'll be glad, I think, for Julio this year and probably next, but may want Moore for the next 10.

I think the question is broader, figuring out how to quantify the futures of young upstarts WRs with high-ceiling futures compared with 30 year old superstars.

This might be the last year that people value Julio > DJ Moore in dynasty.  I'd take DJ Moore already and stay ahead of that curve, since Julio has nowhere to go but down, and I feel DJ has nowhere to go but up. 

At minimum I see DJ Moore staying the same value.  Roughly WR10-15 if he has an average season but probably not vaulting up to the top tier of WR's.  That's his floor.  And even if he does that, someone will think he still belongs in top tier and you could sell for a kings ransom.  The arrow has nowhere to point but up (barring injury) so I'll take the asset that will either net me the same value, or higher value, rather than Julio who will decline in value for the rest of his career.  

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Instant impact is alluring and with Montgomery you're getting a guy who you can plug into your starting lineup from day one and maybe even get a top 15 RB season out of next year. That's a big part of his appeal. Teams at the top of the draft usually need a lot of help and of course they're going to be more interested in the guy who can play right away vs. people like Henderson, Harris, and Singletary who have a murkier path to relevance. If you flipped the teams around, they might be taking Harris or Henderson at #3-5 instead of Montgomery.

As much as I argue talent > situation in dynasty, you have to hedge a little bit. I've had players like Bernard Pierce and Christine Michael who were drafted into a logjam and never really got a great extended opportunity to be the guy. With someone like Harris or Mattison, he may be stuck in a committee indefinitely, only to be pipped by his team drafting a Barkley/Zeke type high in the future.

Their ADP is pretty modest though, and I think a 2nd round rookie price tag is good value for people like Harris and Henderson if you can be patient. They have the potential to be better than Montgomery in the long run and you don't need to spend a premium pick to acquire them. I can see why people like Montgomery and he really does have a shot at FF ROY, but there are enough red flags to make me gun shy at his lofty ADP. I think he's better than Montee Ball and Bishop Sankey, but those guys are a cautionary tale of what can happen if a guy lands in a great spot, but just doesn't have the goods to capitalize.

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Not sure I disagree. I think I’m just more bearish on Montgomery. I’ve seen Kareem Hunt comparisons, but what is Hunt without the burst? I just have a hard time seeing him do much more than Howard did, with a few more targets.

I want to like Montgomery, as my initial impressions were positive, a couple years back. The draft capital is there, and I try not to put too much stock in my own eyes, so perhaps I’m overthinking this. I’m not in a position to draft him, across my leagues, but if I was and was set on RB, I’d trade back and target Henderson. At the very least, I’m confident saying that I’m much higher on Henderson at his ADP than Montgomery at his. I think we agree there, based on your rankings.

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3 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Thoughts on Cam Newton? Do we expect him to age less gracefully than QBs who don’t take those extra hits? Or is he enough of a physical freak to keep taking them into his 30s? 

My view is it won't be 2019 for his full recovery.  Remember how long it took A Luck to recover from his should issue.  There is a correlation here that I will not ignore.  There were some rumors early off season (Feb?) that they could not definitively declare they fixed the issue.  They could not determine what the actual problem was but they did surgery anyway.  How can you plan a career with that hanging over your physical ability?  

So, Cam is due for a new contract in 2021 and I don't think we see his "new level of play" until 2020.  Contract year production or resigned to a backup role.  

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Yea, I have Montgomery on the fringes of the top 10 and at that point it equates to a "do not draft" rating since he's going to be a top 5-6 pick in every league.

Hunt wasn't fast on paper, but IIRC had a fast 100m time in high school (sub 11s). I wasn't even high on Hunt by the time he got drafted, but I think I did note that his game speed was better than his 40 time showed. There's nothing like that going on with Montgomery. He'll get run down constantly in the NFL, so every yard will be a battle.

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9 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Joe needs to invest in a Remind-Me bot. It would be interesting to look back on this. With the benefit of hindsight we’ll be able to see if your prediction about my prediction was absolutely false or not. In the meantime, it feels like an arduous conversation that I’d rather avoid. We’ll see (if one of us remembers).

Not trying to have an arduous conversation. Sorry about that.

This started by you saying you like Mike Williams. I like him too, and I own him in 1 of my 2 dynasty leagues.

But I don't see a lot of upside for him over his 2018 performance in the short term unless Allen gets hurt. Williams will probably get more targets than last season if healthy, but I'd be surprised if it was a lot more unless Allen misses games. And, while Williams is a very good red zone threat, I am skeptical he will sustain his TD per target rate, which was second best in the league last year among players with at least 20 targets, second only to Kareem Hunt. TE Henry returns, and he is also a strong red zone threat. So more targets for Williams may not drive his fantasy production up compared to 2018.

As for more passing, consider that it wasn't just about passing attempts, it was about offensive philosophy and pace. The Chargers ran 945 offensive plays last season, 5th fewest in the league. It wasn't because they weren't good enough on offense to sustain drives... it was because of Lynn's offensive philosophy.

That occurred last season despite the fact that the defense was not as good as it was expected to be, primarily due to missing 70 defensive starts to injury. The defense should be top 5 this season and could be #1, as long as they don't have another rash of serious injuries like last season. If they do perform better, that just further empowers Lynn to run the conservative offense he prefers.

All that said, the Chargers attempted 512 passes last season, which is a very low number. So perhaps I should have been more qualified in my earlier responses. They could attempt more, but I don't think it would be many more unless Gordon misses a lot of games, and they could just as easily have fewer attempts.

The Chargers also signed Lynn favorite Tyrod Taylor. He is easily the best backup QB the team has had since Rivers began starting in 2006. There has been some speculation that Lynn may intend to use Taylor in certain situations, like short yardage, or as a player like Taysom Hill for the Saints. I hope they don't do that, since IMO playing Taylor for a single meaningful snap at QB with Rivers healthy is a stupid idea (just as I think pulling Brees for Hill is stupid). But it seems pretty likely that Taylor will attempt more passes in 2019 than the 4.4 attempts Rivers' backups have averaged per season over the last 5 years. So more attempts for the team does not necessarily mean Rivers will have more attempts.

14 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Edit: All 5 projections I’ve found have Rivers’ attempts increasing. 

I don't give this much weight. Many projections are data driven and utilize multiple seasons of data while failing to adjust for changing situations. Most of what I posted above is deeper information on Rivers and the Chargers than I think most people who do projections go.

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Posted (edited)

I had the same conversation about Dak a year ago. (Maybe 2.) I have a similar stance here: I’m sure LAC would love to maintain the balance they had last season, but things change fast in the NFL. The Cowboys were sitting on the best line in the league and arguably the best back. Yet Dak’s attempts have increased significantly each year, despite their defense improving drastically.

The LAC schedule is pretty solid, tougher than last season: Colts, Packers, Steelers, Vikings, Chiefs (x2), Texans, Bears, Jags. The Raiders are going to score more than 8 points a game against them. The Broncos should be better too.

I’m not as plugged in to the team as you are, as a fan. But I’ll happily take the over on last year’s numbers. I’d take the over on an increase of 20. I think it’s likely they increase by more than that. I’m expecting a general regression to the mean. You disagree - and that’s cool. 

Edited by Concept Coop

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15 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Joe needs to invest in a Remind-Me bot.

I actually have a Remind-Me folder of bookmarks for those types of posts.  I don't find any value in going back to them and preening if I were right and hate when others do, but man is it useful for self-reflection on cold rainy weekends.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

I actually have a Remind-Me folder of bookmarks for those types of posts.  I don't find any value in going back to them and preening if I were right and hate when others do, but man is it useful for self-reflection on cold rainy weekends.

It was only a bad joke in my part. What Joe should invest in is fixing the search function. It’s a pain trying to go back and find old posts in large threads.

Edited by Concept Coop

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2 hours ago, Birdie048 said:

My view is it won't be 2019 for his full recovery.  Remember how long it took A Luck to recover from his should issue.  There is a correlation here that I will not ignore.  There were some rumors early off season (Feb?) that they could not definitively declare they fixed the issue.  They could not determine what the actual problem was but they did surgery anyway.  How can you plan a career with that hanging over your physical ability?  

So, Cam is due for a new contract in 2021 and I don't think we see his "new level of play" until 2020.  Contract year production or resigned to a backup role.  

I'd disagree with the bolded. Cam Newton is not struggling to find a starting job, if the Panthers decide to move on, frankly I don't think he'd even accept one. 

Those early rumors seem pretty overblown, and I admit to taking them pretty seriously at the time, but there has been zero indication out of Carolina that Newton won't be full go week 1. 

6 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Thoughts on Cam Newton? Do we expect him to age less gracefully than QBs who don’t take those extra hits? Or is he enough of a physical freak to keep taking them into his 30s? 

I think Newton has a few years before we have to start worrying about him falling off a cliff. I'd be more worried if he suffered a lot of leg injuries, as that is such a huge part of his game, even when he isn't running, as defenses are always wary of it. 

I still value him as a QB1 in dynasty, and with how easy it is to find QB's, I'm not sure anything beyond 3 years really matters. I'd still prefer Newton to say, Kyler Murray, but I'd have him behind other more proven young QB's like say, Carson Wentz. 

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3 hours ago, Zyphros said:

This might be the last year that people value Julio > DJ Moore in dynasty.  I'd take DJ Moore already and stay ahead of that curve, since Julio has nowhere to go but down, and I feel DJ has nowhere to go but up. 

At minimum I see DJ Moore staying the same value.  Roughly WR10-15 if he has an average season but probably not vaulting up to the top tier of WR's.  That's his floor.  And even if he does that, someone will think he still belongs in top tier and you could sell for a kings ransom.  The arrow has nowhere to point but up (barring injury) so I'll take the asset that will either net me the same value, or higher value, rather than Julio who will decline in value for the rest of his career.  

I like DJ Moore a lot, but I think it'd be very dangerous to value him over Julio. 

The bolded is a spot where I see what you are saying, but disagree on the importance of it. Yes, Moore is on the way up, and Julio is likely on the way down soon. But they aren't close right now at all. Julio is at least 40 points ahead of Moore this year, and could be as many as 80, especially in PPR. On top of that, Julio is only 30. He could easily stay at this level for a couple more years. 

So while Moore is going up, and Julio is going down, its possible/likely they won't be equal for another 3 years or so. During that time, the difference between Julio and Moore might be a multiple wins a year. I'm assuming the owner who has Julio is a contender being that his other 2 WR's were Hopkins and Thomas, so that sways me even more in Julio's direction.

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, travdogg said:

I think Newton has a few years before we have to start worrying about him falling off a cliff. I'd be more worried if he suffered a lot of leg injuries, as that is such a huge part of his game, even when he isn't running, as defenses are always wary of it. 

I still value him as a QB1 in dynasty, and with how easy it is to find QB's, I'm not sure anything beyond 3 years really matters. I'd still prefer Newton to say, Kyler Murray, but I'd have him behind other more proven young QB's like say, Carson Wentz. 

I think this is spot on. More upper body injuries could lead to the team wanting him to run less, but every time this comes up Cam/the Panthers coaches say that they won't limit his running. Obviously that could change but I think they recognize it's what makes him special, and it gets him locked into games physically and emotionally (a big run is like anti-moping medicine). I could see a scenario where he gets run into the ground physically. The team's baffling management of his injury last year is an example. So I do worry about how long he has left physically. I agree on the 3 year window and wouldn't count on much more.

Edited by DAG

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Most good running QBs ran a lot less in their 30s than they did in their 20s. For instance.

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6 hours ago, travdogg said:

I like DJ Moore a lot, but I think it'd be very dangerous to value him over Julio. 

The bolded is a spot where I see what you are saying, but disagree on the importance of it. Yes, Moore is on the way up, and Julio is likely on the way down soon. But they aren't close right now at all. Julio is at least 40 points ahead of Moore this year, and could be as many as 80, especially in PPR. On top of that, Julio is only 30. He could easily stay at this level for a couple more years. 

So while Moore is going up, and Julio is going down, its possible/likely they won't be equal for another 3 years or so. During that time, the difference between Julio and Moore might be a multiple wins a year. I'm assuming the owner who has Julio is a contender being that his other 2 WR's were Hopkins and Thomas, so that sways me even more in Julio's direction.

 

I don't do comprehensive dynasty rankings and debates like this illustrate why.

Those two guys are very different value propositions and their appeal to you probably hinges heavily on your roster composition, so it's hard to say which one is absolutely worth more in a vacuum. For example, if I'm a rebuilding team with no real hope of contending this year then I don't think I want to pay market price for Julio. He's getting older, his trade value is declining every year, and any production that you get from him now risks lowering the value of your rookie picks by giving you pointless wins. In that case you'd take DJ Moore, knowing that his best days are probably still ahead of him, even if a pure VBD analysis favors the remainder of Julio's career over a reasonable projection of what Moore might do.

On the other hand, if you're a contender then maybe you take 2-3 good seasons of Julio, knowing that for all his apparent potential Moore could still turn out to be an underwhelming player like Donte Stallworth or Corey Coleman who stalls out at a level that isn't useful for FF teams. If you're just thinking about immediate return then maybe the guy with the instant PPG edge is the way to go, even if he's a decaying asset.

I'm not a VBD guy, but basically what I'm saying is that sometimes decisions are actually more complicated than just saying "this guy's remaining career value is higher than this guy's therefore he's worth more." There are other variables such as timing, roster composition, and perceived value that might influence your thinking.

Personally, I tend to favor youth for a variety of reasons, but if you are aiming at a small window then maybe you take Julio over Moore or someone like LeVeon Bell over Josh Jacobs since there's theoretically more short-term security in guys who have established themselves as elite producers vs. guys who might get there someday.

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16 hours ago, travdogg said:

I'd disagree with the bolded. Cam Newton is not struggling to find a starting job, if the Panthers decide to move on, frankly I don't think he'd even accept one. 

Those early rumors seem pretty overblown, and I admit to taking them pretty seriously at the time, but there has been zero indication out of Carolina that Newton won't be full go week 1. 

I think Newton has a few years before we have to start worrying about him falling off a cliff. I'd be more worried if he suffered a lot of leg injuries, as that is such a huge part of his game, even when he isn't running, as defenses are always wary of it. 

The biggest thing you are not taking into consideration here is that Carolina has a new Owner.  He has already demonstrated he will play hardball with his cash regarding the facility, building a new HQ in SC (needed $115M Tax exemption or back to NC).  This will be his first big player contract challenge.  He has made it clear in his limited interviews that he needs to see how best to be competitive and he likes what the youth bring to the table.  I just don't see him giving Cam 3 year $100M money without Pro-Bowl level recovery in 2020.  Cam's ego might let him walk, but his legs will only take him so far after all the hits & injuries he has sustained. 

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3 hours ago, Birdie048 said:

The biggest thing you are not taking into consideration here is that Carolina has a new Owner.  He has already demonstrated he will play hardball with his cash regarding the facility, building a new HQ in SC (needed $115M Tax exemption or back to NC).  This will be his first big player contract challenge.  He has made it clear in his limited interviews that he needs to see how best to be competitive and he likes what the youth bring to the table.  I just don't see him giving Cam 3 year $100M money without Pro-Bowl level recovery in 2020.  Cam's ego might let him walk, but his legs will only take him so far after all the hits & injuries he has sustained. 

From an outsider's perspective, it seems like Cam is the Face of the Franchise (tm), and the new owner probably recognizes that fact.  Ponying up for a very marketable personality pays handsome dividends, both in player morale and fan engagement.

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Posted (edited)

Extorting governments is quite dissimilar from player contract negotiations.

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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50 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

From an outsider's perspective, it seems like Cam is the Face of the Franchise (tm), and the new owner probably recognizes that fact.  Ponying up for a very marketable personality pays handsome dividends, both in player morale and fan engagement.

Good Point....  And Cam is the clean image he should/could want....  But what will Cam's ego need to be sated? Does he feel the need for Top 3 $$ (>$33M/yr)? or will he go after the % of the Cap maneuver? 

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It is my first season in a 12 team dynasty Superflex and I am wondering how to value Haskins in a rookie draft? I really only have Dalton as a starting QB on my roster. I also have Tannehill, Taysom Hill and Nate Sudfeld. I have the 1.10 rookie pick and I'm not sure Haskins will be there. I don't think trading up for Haskins would be wise.Maybe I could stand pat and take Lock?

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56 minutes ago, northern exposure said:

It is my first season in a 12 team dynasty Superflex and I am wondering how to value Haskins in a rookie draft? I really only have Dalton as a starting QB on my roster. I also have Tannehill, Taysom Hill and Nate Sudfeld. I have the 1.10 rookie pick and I'm not sure Haskins will be there. I don't think trading up for Haskins would be wise.Maybe I could stand pat and take Lock?

It partially depends on the scoring, but in most superflex and 2 QB leagues I'm in or friends are in, the top QBs will all be gone by 1.10, including Jones and Lock.  Haskins has been the 1.02 pick in some superflex leagues.

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