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Why do fantasy “experts” love Kenneth Dixon? (1 Viewer)

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Saboo

Footballguy
Week after week, “expert” after “expert” raves about Kenneth Dixon, but what is it about this guy that they all love? Dixon is a guy who can’t overtake a mediocrity (and that’s being generous) like Terrence West.

When he does get his touches as the 2nd rb in a rbbc by committee  he doesn’t exactly light it up. That said he is consistently ranked above guys who have accomplished more than Dixon has to this point in his career.

I do have Dixon on my roster and I keep getting told by the “experts” to play him, but I just don’t see the upside. Am I missing something?

 
I think you're underestimating West slightly, and Dixon is still a rookie learning the NFL playbook - most notably pass coverages, etc.  Not sure what you're saying when you say that guys are getting ranked ahead of him who have accomplished more than him at "this point in his career".  His "career" is 14 games long.

Not sure if you watched him turn 11 (yeah, eleven) targets as the 2nd back in the offense into 8 catches for 42 yards and a score against one of the best defenses in the NFL.  He looked pretty spectacular against them Pats.  I own Dixon, didn't start him... in fact, haven't pulled him off my DTS yet.

He's got 4.5 speed, which isn't great, but he was a swiss-army type of back in the Forte mold at LaTech and his game will carry over to the pro game with a little seasoning.  

West hasn't been terrible for the Ravens, especially with them in swinging distance to a playoff spot here as the season wraps up.  West is averaging a career-best 4.1 ypc (nothing to write home about, but still better than he's been previously).  Couple of catches per game.

I would guess that after full, non-rookie off-season that Dixon will ultimately become the lead back and West will be the backup.

I'm a hopeful Dixon owner, sure.  I've had people offer me decent packages for him, but I think he's a skilled back that will work well in the Ravens system.  Give him 2-3 years and I wouldn't be surprised if he's a lower-level RB1 in ppr formats.

 
We're desperate to find young RBs. And he kinda is built like Ray Rice, so we all hope/assume he'll play like him. 

 
One of my teams I own both west and Dixon and have picked wrong three weeks straight. Last week had I used them both instead of Dixon and farrow, I'd be in the championship  :violin:

And idea who's the hot hand this week?

 
I think it's very easy to see what they like...a young RB with some talent both running the ball and receiving who on paper is in a pretty good situation...decent team with RB competition that is nothing too special...that being said I do agree with the fact that while he has shown some production the last three weeks he has not took ownership of the RB position and since we are in week 16 you should be skeptical...but in a year where the RB position has been pretty dicey there is "upside" here but I don't blame you if you look elsewhere...especially if you are in your championship...that is a roll of the dice...

 
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Good post for discussion. I watch him play and see nothing special about him, but I'm interested in hearing other opinions.

 
I think Dixon has potential, but it seems a bit much to keep thinking he's going to break out any week now. Every week, FBGs has Dixon ranked higher than any other site. West is still getting touches and snaps, so it's hard for me to trust Dixon. Now next year, I think Dixon will be a great pick in the mid-rounds. But for this year, he doesn't seem like anything more than a Flex.

 
60 rushes for 270 yards in 7 games since the bye (8.6 carries at 4.5 per carry)

23 catches on 30 targets for 136 yards since the bye (3.3 rec/game)

Touchdowns in back to back weeks (his first tds of his career).

In the same 7 games, West has 82 carries for 305 yards (3.7) and 17 catches for 142 yards with 3 total touchdowns  

Take out Dixon's 9 for 13 rushing and 0 catches on 2 targets against the steelers in his first real action, and he has run 51 times for 257 yards the last 6 games, for a hair over 5 yards a carry.

Take out West's 15 rushes for 21 yards vs the steelers, and you get 67 for 284 - 4.2 yards per carry.

Dixon has some very nice power runs where he got extra yards by carrying defenders. He has some nice receptions. He has some nice blitz pickups, although he missed one last week and barely played after that.

He appeared to have taken over as starter, though, before giving up that sack. He had 11 carries and 8 receptions against the Patriots. So there's a good chance he gets a heavy workload this week. I don't know if you can really use him though, since he plays the same Steelers team that shut both him and West down week 9 in Baltimore, in Pittsburgh.

I agree with the consensus that he's a flex at best this week and a better play for next year once he gets a full offseason.  Even if West lingers, 160 for 750 rushing and 50 for 350 receiving with maybe 8 TDs is very achievable. But the upside if he becomes the feature back a lot of us expect is Devonta Freeman, who was the number 1 overall back in all scoring systems last year. Guys who run well, catch and score touchdowns are just insanely valuable.

 
Also possible that people are looking for validation of their pre-draft evaluation.

Dixon was a draft and fantasy darling pre-draft, he was drafted later than many expected, and it's natural for people to root for players they ranked high that fell.

I dunno about him myself, I just have not seen much of him.  But from a fantasy perspective, he's getting a lot of touches for a good team, trending up, he's a solid start.

 
massraider said:
Also possible that people are looking for validation of their pre-draft evaluation.

Dixon was a draft and fantasy darling pre-draft, he was drafted later than many expected, and it's natural for people to root for players they ranked high that fell.

I dunno about him myself, I just have not seen much of him.  But from a fantasy perspective, he's getting a lot of touches for a good team, trending up, he's a solid start.
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... and in particular when you have a respected voice in the industry(like Matt Waldman) stumps for a guy there is a ripple effect throughout the entire hobby. Matt Waldman is probably my favorite FBG and he was very high on Dixon coming into the draft, before he Dixon into a pretty good situation. 

IMO the FBG staff were always doubters of West as well when he was drafted by CLE so this year it's kind of a perfect storm on this site. I wasn't surprised when I saw Dixon rated higher than most and took it with a grain of salt. 

 
BoltBacker said:
... and in particular when you have a respected voice in the industry(like Matt Waldman) stumps for a guy there is a ripple effect throughout the entire hobby. Matt Waldman is probably my favorite FBG and he was very high on Dixon coming into the draft, before he Dixon into a pretty good situation. 

IMO the FBG staff were always doubters of West as well when he was drafted by CLE so this year it's kind of a perfect storm on this site. I wasn't surprised when I saw Dixon rated higher than most and took it with a grain of salt. 
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Good point on West.  

Maybe I am cynical about it (no 'maybe' about it actually), but it just seems like people were dismissing West's contributions, and anything Dixon did that was a positive was going to be pumped up a bit.

It's not just the FBG that we know, everyone's guilty of this to some extent.

 
Dixon is this year's C-Mike. Every year the FBGs seem to pick their sexy pick of the year and pimp him out to all of the subscribers week after week. They don't really care about anything else except hopefully being right about the one sleeper that season. 

It's too bad fantasy advice has gotten to the point where "experts" are just pimping "their guy" and not worried about getting the rest of anything else right. 

Next year it'll be someone else. Name your rookie. 

 
massraider said:
Good point on West.  

Maybe I am cynical about it (no 'maybe' about it actually), but it just seems like people were dismissing West's contributions, and anything Dixon did that was a positive was going to be pumped up a bit.

It's not just the FBG that we know, everyone's guilty of this to some extent.
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Yeah I felt like this was happening before the season began.

I also like Dixon. To me he was one of the few complete RB from 2016 besides Elliot. Henry Dixon and Booker were my only tier 2 RB from 2016.

That said people such as bostonfred have been talking down West and Forsett all along. When something gets repeated enough times, people start thinking it is true.

Forsett being cut and not catching on with Detroit shows that he is likely done. A good player and a guy I have liked his whole career but for one reason or another (usually injuries) he has never been able to put it together aside from one season near the end of his career.

West is a player I was never very high on. He had this tendency to take all of his runs in college east/west until the defense would get tired and a block would finally free him for some yards. That stuff does not work in the NFL unless you are McCoy or Barry Sanders. West has had to change how he plays. He has changed how he plays. He does not do that anymore. 

He has attitude problems though and the Ravens are his 3rd team. There were/are reasons to doubt West, but he is a talented RB and not a complete push over as far as Dixon trying to take playing time from him.

I prefer Dixon as a prospect over West, but as far as talent goes, I don't think they are that far apart.

 
Dr. Brew said:
Dixon is this year's C-Mike. Every year the FBGs seem to pick their sexy pick of the year and pimp him out to all of the subscribers week after week. They don't really care about anything else except hopefully being right about the one sleeper that season. 

It's too bad fantasy advice has gotten to the point where "experts" are just pimping "their guy" and not worried about getting the rest of anything else right. 

Next year it'll be someone else. Name your rookie. 
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Eh, I don't think that's really fair. Michael was a relatively high pick and he came with the caveat that he was a bit of a knucklehead, so draft at your own risk. Nobody hid that fact. FBG was not alone in saying he was a talented risk. From what I've seen of him over his NFL career, they seem to be right. The kid can play. But he's also a knucklehad. I don't feel like the masses of "experts" were wrong at all about him. I mean, anyone who got in a bidding war on him or Gordon hoping they'd get their act together got burned pretty badly, so there's probably some resentment, but the talent assessment wasn't wrong, nor was the risk assessment.

This year Dixon was a 4th round rookie who had an ADP of RB56. I feel like he got mentioned a few times by Waldman and maybe got moved up some rookie rankings, but nothing crazy like people saying he'd finish the year top 15. His injury lingered and he wasn't 100% when he came back. He didn't start getting much playing time until after the bye. He appeared to take over the job week 14, got benched for missing a block in week 15, and now quite a few people are up in arms like he was some sort of hyped up bust. I just don't see it.

I bought him cheap/drafted him late in a couple redraft leagues. It didn't really work out, but given the price and the information available to me, I don't feel one bit upset about it. It was a cheap gamble. I still think he's a great buy/hold in dynasty and I'll be targeting him hard in redraft next year so long as he doesn't get crazy offseason hype.

 
Biabreakable said:
Forsett being cut and not catching on with Detroit shows that he is likely done. A good player and a guy I have liked his whole career but for one reason or another (usually injuries) he has never been able to put it together aside from one season near the end of his career.
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It's off topic, but Forsett didn't really have injuries holding him back. He was small with awful measurables so coaching staffs wrote him off and gave him the Mewelde Moore treatment. But like Moore, he always produced when given the chance. Unfortunately, those chances were few and far between until his 7th (age 29) season...

 
Biabreakable said:
That said people such as bostonfred have been talking down West and Forsett all along. When something gets repeated enough times, people start thinking it is true.
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Feel free to bump my detailed posts on west and forsett "all along". I've made no secret that I don't think either is a particularly big hurdle to overcome - and Forsett is now off the team, while Dixon has a significantly higher per carry average than West over the last 6 games (5 vs 4.2) and on the full season (4.2 vs 4.1).

But that's not the same as "talking down West and Forsett all along". If you're going to post about me, please don't put words in my mouth.

I remain high on Dixon and the results seem to bear out that he's a good player.  

 
FF Ninja said:
Eh, I don't think that's really fair. Michael was a relatively high pick and he came with the caveat that he was a bit of a knucklehead, so draft at your own risk. Nobody hid that fact. FBG was not alone in saying he was a talented risk. From what I've seen of him over his NFL career, they seem to be right. The kid can play. But he's also a knucklehad. I don't feel like the masses of "experts" were wrong at all about him. I mean, anyone who got in a bidding war on him or Gordon hoping they'd get their act together got burned pretty badly, so there's probably some resentment, but the talent assessment wasn't wrong, nor was the risk assessment.

This year Dixon was a 4th round rookie who had an ADP of RB56. I feel like he got mentioned a few times by Waldman and maybe got moved up some rookie rankings, but nothing crazy like people saying he'd finish the year top 15. His injury lingered and he wasn't 100% when he came back. He didn't start getting much playing time until after the bye. He appeared to take over the job week 14, got benched for missing a block in week 15, and now quite a few people are up in arms like he was some sort of hyped up bust. I just don't see it.

I bought him cheap/drafted him late in a couple redraft leagues. It didn't really work out, but given the price and the information available to me, I don't feel one bit upset about it. It was a cheap gamble. I still think he's a great buy/hold in dynasty and I'll be targeting him hard in redraft next year so long as he doesn't get crazy offseason hype.
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Not trying to compare him to Michael. Just the hype that can surround him. Last year Michael was so over blown before he even was active with Dallas. Dixon was equally over blown IMO anticipating his return to the team. He was cheap but he was very over blown. 

What happens more often on fantasy sites is the "experts" try to get that "one guy" right. As a result, many typical rankings (such as who will finish top 10 WR or RB) get over-looked. Everyone is in search of being "right" on that one guy that emerges. Whether it be a rookie or a young guy in a great opportunity. It's disappointing and one reason I stopped subscribing to any "expert" advice. 

 
bostonfred said:
Feel free to bump my detailed posts on west and forsett "all along". I've made no secret that I don't think either is a particularly big hurdle to overcome - and Forsett is now off the team, while Dixon has a significantly higher per carry average than West over the last 6 games (5 vs 4.2) and on the full season (4.2 vs 4.1).

But that's not the same as "talking down West and Forsett all along". If you're going to post about me, please don't put words in my mouth.

I remain high on Dixon and the results seem to bear out that he's a good player.  
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Fred no reason to be defensive. I am not putting words in your mouth. This is a discussion we had several times in the offseason across multiple threads. Usually when making comparisons about opportunity between Dixon and Perkins.

My argument was that things were not completely clear in the Ravens (or the Giants) backfield. That while I like Dixon more than West or Forsett, I recognized that both are quality RB that won't be easy for Dixon to surpass in 2016. You did not see them as being obstacles to his opportunity as much as I did.

I forget the exact language you were using, but what I do recall is you saying that these RB were not very big obstacles for Dixon to surpass. That is the crux of our disagreement. Although I think Dixon is better in the long run, I still saw this backfield as competition that could slow Dixons opportunity for the 2016 season. His injury did not help things much either.

At least no one is talking about Buck Allen anymore.

 
I don't think the thing holding Dixon back  this year is West. He got hurt, came back, was trending well, missed a block and got benched. Even then it was as much Jusczyk as West who picked up his work.  West has played serviceably and has a couple good games, but so did CMike in Seattle. 

Same with Perkins. It remains to be seen whether Perkins can assert himself in the offseason, but he's looked good. just shy of 4 yards a carry, over 11 yards a catch, getting about 10 carries a game over the last 7 games as he gets more comfortable with pass protections and all the adjustments eli does at the line.  I said in the offseason that his late graduation and the complex offense would put him on ice until Thanksgiving. He started to get double digit carries in early November. Jennings, Andre Williams, Darkwaa and Rainey have not been the obstacle.  

That said, it's possible neither gets another chance after this year. But it won't be because of the replacement level guys in front of them. I think 3 or 4 of the guys we discussed this summer have been released from their teams. 

 
Forsett has been released twice. Jennings hasn't been. Vereen has been injured. Things change a lot.

I do think some of the early optimism about Dixon in a Trestman offense helped Dixon's value in rookie drafts. Trestman was fired so I am not sure if anyone is seeing the main RB getting 100 targets in this offense the way they may have been hoping for from Dixon if Trestman stayed. FWIW the RB are on pace for 101 targets when you consider Dixon, West, Forsett and Allens 89 targets over 14 games. I think a lot of people thought Dixon would get the majority of those and maybe he will next season. He has had some big target games recently.

As far as the FB he had 56 targets last season, he is on pace for 50 this season, so no real change here.

Pitta being back is something I was not really expecting either, but doesn't matter too much as I thought other TE would get those looks if he had not.

I was wrong about Forsett who I think is clearly past his prime now. He would have been the main competition for Dixon in this role in the offense.

West has been used more as a receiver than he had been in his previous two seasons, 2.6 targets per game is more than what I was expecting for him . 

 
bostonfred said:
I don't think the thing holding Dixon back  this year is West. He got hurt, came back, was trending well, missed a block and got benched. Even then it was as much Jusczyk as West who picked up his work.  West has played serviceably and has a couple good games, but so did CMike in Seattle. 

Same with Perkins. It remains to be seen whether Perkins can assert himself in the offseason, but he's looked good. just shy of 4 yards a carry, over 11 yards a catch, getting about 10 carries a game over the last 7 games as he gets more comfortable with pass protections and all the adjustments eli does at the line.  I said in the offseason that his late graduation and the complex offense would put him on ice until Thanksgiving. He started to get double digit carries in early November. Jennings, Andre Williams, Darkwaa and Rainey have not been the obstacle.  

That said, it's possible neither gets another chance after this year. But it won't be because of the replacement level guys in front of them. I think 3 or 4 of the guys we discussed this summer have been released from their teams. 
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Perkins and Dixon are both interesting in that I think both have looked decent, and neither has looked special. 

They might be the best 2017 options right now, but by September next year, that might change.  I don't think a Dixon or Perkins owner can count on their guy having a big role for 2017, I dunno if they have shown enough.  

 
Leg drive - he's a burnin' hunk of churnin' funk. The Kavorka aint enough anymore, however, and he's not learning his lessons well enough for Harbaugh to do anything but keep him humble, but he's an RB1 if he does.

 
It's because he showed in college that he can be a three down back and the "experts" are waiting for him to demonstrate that on the field and take over the job full time. Might not happen until next year.

 
Watch some of his third quarter runs against the Steelers today and that will explain everything.

 
Both deceptively fast and strong. I think he ran a 4.5 forty, and he squats 600 lbs. Runs with emotion. Demonstrates great coordination, and especially looks like a mismatch against defenders with a head of steam built. Obviously LaTech is no world beater in NCAA football, but scoring 89 TDs in college matters.

Coordination and elusiveness matter most in my estimation of Dixon's ability.

 
I think it is interesting that his combine numbers are almost identical to Devonta Freeman. And Dixon could grow into a similar type of player.

 
Talk about a guy who's value is tied-up in this offseason...he could be a draft darling or yesterday's news depending on what Baltimore does this offseason...I have seen a few mocks where the Ravens take an RB like Dalvin Cook...that would be a big blow to his value...

 
Considering this

The two most elusive running backs in 2016 were… Jalen Richard and Kenneth Dixon. https://t.co/vuhjvvdAmm

and they threw 2/3rds of the time. And Dixon didn't play until halfway through the season. I doubt they just take a top 3 RB and say Dixon can't be the guy already. West is a free agent. So they want to find a good replacement for him I'm sure. 

 
jacobo_moses said:
Considering this

The two most elusive running backs in 2016 were… Jalen Richard and Kenneth Dixon. https://t.co/vuhjvvdAmm

and they threw 2/3rds of the time. And Dixon didn't play until halfway through the season. I doubt they just take a top 3 RB and say Dixon can't be the guy already. West is a free agent. So they want to find a good replacement for him I'm sure. 
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West is an RFA which makes it very easy to keep him at a reasonable price, he's far from gone.

 
I was very impressed with him v Pats this yr. Matt Patricia was just getting the team really on-board with that new hole-plugging methodology i dont yet fully understand and the kid got more than they gave him every time and did nice work swinging out for passes. The injury hurt his coachin-up and he flunked all the stuff most rookie rbs do, but i expect him to grab the brass ring this yr if they dont put a star in the mix.

 
jacobo_moses said:
I think it is interesting that his combine numbers are almost identical to Devonta Freeman. And Dixon could grow into a similar type of player.
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https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/devonta-freeman/

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/kenneth-dixon/

Loosely similar.

Hankmoody said:
West is an RFA which makes it very easy to keep him at a reasonable price, he's far from gone.
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Yep. West will be back almost certainly. They like what he did last year and the price will be right. As a Dixon owner, I gotta hope Dixon can relegate West to a backup role. I expect Baltimore to add a little burner (Dri Archer-esque) in the later rounds of the draft based off of Harbaugh's quote. After Perriman failed to beat out Aiken, I'd think Baltimore is more likely to go WR in the early rounds than RB if they go offensive skill position. I don't really expect them to go RB or WR, for the record.

 
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