2023 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings (1 Viewer)

[Hartliner]

And we're back!

In 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 we had a thread that folks seemed to find valuable so I am starting another version for 2022 - it's a living, ongoing list of potential

King

Makers at RB - the idea is to be PREEMPTIVE on RBs most likely sitting on the Waiver Wire (depending upon league size, sharks or guppies, etc.). The definition of this thread is generally re-draft.


To paraphrase @TZMarkie from 2016: "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season...The point is, regardless of however you see it, and whatever your league preference and/or breakdown may be, in most cases a typical owner (think redraft with 5-7 bench spots) will only be able to truly "take a shot" on one or two of these guys".

To paraphrase @Interseptopus from 2019: "A lotto ticket, to me, costs almost nothing, and is easily expendable for the next lotto ticket, but has potential to win you your season. ... Lotto tickets, in my mind, are easily cut from one week to the next."

Editor note about the spirit of this list: While TZMarkie and Interseptopus defined "what a LOTTO is" opinions and league sizes vary. This list is meant to be a cast a wide net review as a tool to make your own judgement calls. Then make your own rankings. Please share if you're willing. Some RBs are included in the event of a very shallow league. Others are included in case a frustrated owner drops him during a bye week crunch. Again, wide net.

P.S. I want to give a shout out to @SameSongNDance for starting this annual tradition back in 2016!

And I thank the following past prolific contributors not mentioned earlier (If I forgot anyone I apologize in advance):

@4th and Inches - @Ack88 - @bicycle_seat_sniffer - @Buck Bradcanon - @BobbyLayne - @Casting Couch - @Chaka - @cloppbeast

@davearm - @Faust - @@Football

Jones

- @hamsterdam - @hardcoredx - @Hot Sauce Guy - @Iceman03 - @IHEARTFF


@Ilov80s - @JFS171 - @joey - @leftcoastheel - @@

Long

Ball Larry - @MindBomb - @@

Patrick

the Pirate - @pinkham13 - @Snorkelson


@SoBeDad - @socrates - @Stompin' Tom Connors - @Ted Lange as your Bartender - @The Dude - @worrierking - @Wooderson

@zamboni

Wanted to give a bit of a disclaimer. I didn't see the Thread posted yet for 2023 but the drafts have already been coming for 2023
I did a quick runthrough of all 32 teams and ID'd the Kingmakers on each team again. Hope you enjoy! @daylight

CANDIDATES for the Season Changing – KingMaker List - by division
I'll Asterisk the team with the Kingmaker* and Bold the Kingmakers
As of Sunday Aug 27.

AFC East

*BUF
Damien Harris is pretty cheap and if Cook fumbles/gets injured again he definitely will be the Kingmaker.

MIA
Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. could split, I think Jeff is the guy to own if I were to guess.
Devon Achane is the wildcard here late in season due to their injury taking them out of the picture for the early part. Also was a team linked to JT trade so we’ll see. I think these RBs belong on the bench or wait and see.

NEP
Zeke Elliott could emerge as the next option here, if injury occurs. Pierre Strong trade fallout.

NYJ
Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall really are in a position here. I have seen Breece still being targeted in the 4th 5h round and I don’t see a clear winner. The narrative is that Dalvin starts strong and wears down as Breece gets back from injury but, I would not count on it. I think if they fall to you take em, but the savvy move might be just to watch.
Michael Carter is worth remembering to monitor if an older Dalvin Cook loses steam and Breece doesn’t look right. Also the O Line is horrendous.

AFC North

*BAL
J.K. Dobbins is the guy. Gus Edwards is the backup kingmaker

*CIN
Joe Mixon is the old guy
Chase Brown is worth stashing as a Kingmaker.

*CLE
Pierre Strong traded! Jerome Ford injured to begin season.

*PIT
Jaylen Warren is a must draft/stash/roster for anyone. Already forced a split last year. This offseason looks like it took a leap in the preseason as far as passing. Najae is really on the ropes. 1st Kingmaker rank

AFC South

HOU
Devin Singletary is the definitive handcuff, yet only monitor.

IND
Zack Moss needs to be monitored
Evan Hull 5th Rounder also in the mix if JT leaves. I don't think he'd be the first man up tho. Thanks @Birdie048
Deon Jackson got start in preseason Thanks @Chaka for the heads up!

**JAC
Tank Bigsby seems likely to force a split and injury makes the king. He is the 2nd best Kingmaker after Jaylen Warren.

TEN
Tyjae Spears is electric COP that could be viable with injury.
Hassan Haskins has a 1/2 down role that is less appealing. Oline is bad.

AFC West

*DEN
Samaje Perine 3rd Kingmaker. I think Javonte will not fully be themselves on first year back after the injury.

KCC
Jerrick McKinnon best COP in the game right now and is weeky lowend flex.
CEH not good fit, I think barring injury, monitor only.

*LVR
Zamir White is another frontrunner. 4th best Kingmaker

LAC
Joshua Kelley is the main frontrunner
Isaiah Spiller is a COP.

NFC East

*DAL
Rico Dowdle is the perfect reason to make this list, never even heard of him before. He's been on Dallas for three straight seasons despite ending up on IR the last two seasons. 215lbs so could be the out of nowhere league winner!
Deuce Vaughn COP so small it is funny to watch youtube vids of his play

NYG
Matt Breida is not the answer. Most likely would be someone not on the roster.

*PHI
Welcome to pure Hell, I have a monitor on all and if I have a gun to my head its Gainwell as a kingmaker.
D’Andre Swift injury risk
Rashad Penny injury risk
Kenneth Gainwell
Boston Scott JAG

*WAS
Antonio Gibson frontrunner and just the more dynamic player in my eyes

NFC North

*CHI
Roschon Johnson was behind a great college RB, he is being slept on and Chicago really likes him. Preseason strong too.
Donta Foreman monitor if injuries occur.

*DET
Jahmyr Gibbs
David Montgomery
This plays out as if it was still Swift and Williams in my eyes.
Gibbs tho should be ceiling of what Kamara was as a rookie tho.

*GBP
AJ Dillon might be looked over at this point but still is a kingmaker with low end flex appeal.

*MIN
Ty Chandler is kingmaker candidate

NFC South

*ATL
Tyler Allgeier is strongly monitored

CAR
Chubba Hubbard stunk 2 years ago when given starter opportunity. I don't like him.

*NO
Jamaal Williams he did it last year but the TDs are a flukely thing to rely on, but he will be goalline option most likely.
Kendre Miller the one we should focus a monitor on

*TBB
Sean Tucker splitting first team reps he is looking to be backup thanks for heads up on this @Lansdowne
Chase Edmonds stunk on MIA and was traded. monitor him
Ke’Shawn Vaughn JAG

NFC West

ARI
Keaontay Ingram and Corey Clement are JAGs

LAR
Zach Evans worth a monitor

*SF
Eli Mitchell is my frontrunner and rounds out a top 5 Kingmaker

*SEA
Zach Charbonnet will be drafted

Congrats if you read the whole thing! 21 possible Kingmakers.

 

[Lansdowne]

Thank you for making this, I love RB speculation. Reminds me some of closer speculation in fantasy baseball. Always good to be a step ahead.

I’ve been singing the praises of Sean Tucker as a kingmaker on here and don’t plan on stopping now. Fast and muscular with a 3-down skillset. Undrafted only because of a suddenly diagnosed heart condition that he’s since been cleared of. Dominated at Syracuse and was figured to be a Day 2 pick otherwise. Assuming he makes the 53-man roster, he’s the guy you want in Tampa if anything happens to Rachaad White.

 

[Birdie048]

Nice work. Thanks for sharing thoughts…

TB - no mention of Sean Tucker

Ind - Moss over Hull?

 

[Hartliner]

Both Evan Hull and Sean Tucker have been added!

 

[Lansdowne]

Speaking of Elijah Mitchell (a top kingmaker). Two years ago, Mitchell was a 6th round pick who entered training camp no better than 5th in the order in the 49ers RB room, and by Week 1 he was their lead rusher. He was my favorite lotto ticket that offseason when everyone else was looking at Trey Sermon.

I’ll add a few deeper names I think are worth monitoring but would require a lot of attrition on their depth charts to amount to anything. It’s all about opportunity in the NFL. Keep in mind some of these guys may not even make their 53 out of the gate. These are names for watch lists or taxi squads but nothing more.

- Trey Sermon, PHI
- DeWayne McBride, MIN
- Justice Hill, BAL
- Kevin Harris, NE
- Izzy Abanikanda, NYJ
- Tyrion Davis-Price, SF
- Tyler Badie, DEN
- Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS

 

[BobbyLayne]

good thread, solid work @Hartliner

appreciate it!

 

[Chaka]

FWIW Deon Jackson got the start for Indy this week. He was solid last season as a replacement for Taylor. He's not a dynamic runner but is big and a very good receiver out of the backfield.

Zack Moss = overrated IMO.

 

[Boston]

I will believe it when I see it (because I really don't believe it) but some of the local media feel JJ Taylor has a chance to become the third RB behind Stevenson and Elliott...if that happens, he would be one injury from either back to becoming potentially relevant...just something to file away until you see the cuts on Tuesday.

 

[JohnnyU]

NYJ
Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall really are in a position here. I have seen Breece still being targeted in the 4th 5h round and I don’t see a clear winner. The narrative is that Dalvin starts strong and wears down as Breece gets back from injury but, I would not count on it. I think if they fall to you take em, but the savvy move might be just to watch.
Michael Carter is worth remembering to monitor if an older Dalvin Cook loses steam and Breece doesn’t look right. Also the O Line is horrendous.

I think Abanikandi is worth remembering more that Carter. IMO Carter is waiver wire material.

 

[Lansdowne]

I will believe it when I see it (because I really don't believe it) but some of the local media feel JJ Taylor has a chance to become the third RB behind Stevenson and Elliott...if that happens, he would be one injury from either back to becoming potentially relevant...just something to file away until you see the cuts on Tuesday.

I saw the blunder Taylor made on a kickoff return in last night’s game and had me feeling he’s not long for the 53 man roster. Took the ball out pinned deep in the end zone and tried to run it out instead of taking a knee and getting them to the 25 yard line. Instead they started the drive on like the 3 yard line. Either poor judgment or lack of awareness. His chance to show value as a special teams contributor and he blew it there. I’d be shocked if he made the team over Strong. I like him as a practice squad option but not a guy I’d keep over Strong or even Harris.

 

[Boston]

I will believe it when I see it (because I really don't believe it) but some of the local media feel JJ Taylor has a chance to become the third RB behind Stevenson and Elliott...if that happens, he would be one injury from either back to becoming potentially relevant...just something to file away until you see the cuts on Tuesday.

I saw the blunder Taylor made on a kickoff return in last night’s game and had me feeling he’s not long for the 53 man roster. Took the ball out pinned deep in the end zone and tried to run it out instead of taking a knee and getting them to the 25 yard line. Instead they started the drive on like the 3 yard line. Either poor judgment or lack of awareness. His chance to show value as a special teams contributor and he blew it there. I’d be shocked if he made the team over Strong. I like him as a practice squad option but not a guy I’d keep over Strong or even Harris.

At this point I am surprised they even brought him to camp…he has had a few years to show something and hasn’t…would have much rather used something like a 7th round pick at RB and see if they could get lucky there…I only added him to this list because I have read/seen a few things where he may have an opportunity but like you I highly doubt it…unfortunately like Zeke coming onboard this may be more an indictment on Strong and Harris.

 

[Lansdowne]

Strong traded to Cleveland, well color me shocked then. Wonder how much this moves the needle at RB2 over there versus Ford.

Edit - Just guessing, but I think this means Ford may miss the first week or so with the hamstring injury and this is to bring in someone to fill in for now. But my thinking is if Ford is inactive for Week 1, it’ll be Felton being next man up for Chubb given he’s already familiar with the playbook. The Browns can use either Felton or Strong for kick returns to replace Jakeem Grant.

The fact that, until his injury, the Browns were ready to roll with Ford at RB2 after losing Hunt and Johnson to free agency, says a lot about the confidence they seem to have in him. Once he’s healthy, he’s Chubb’s immediate backup. There’s also the possibility Browns brass was always higher on Strong than Ford, and found an opportunity to get him cheap. But for now I’m thinking Strong is firmly RB3 whether it’s Ford or Felton at RB2 to begin the year, with a chance for Strong to move up to RB2 with more time with the team.

In other words

Chubb -> Felton -> Strong (Ford inactive)

Then

Chubb -> Ford -> Strong (and/or Felton, depending how many RBs they want active and who they have on KR duty)

Edit 2 - Felton released, so forget everything I said lol

 

[Mongidig]

Jaleel Mclaughlin.

Google him.

 

[zamboni]

Jaleel Mclaughlin.

Google him.

Definitely a workhorse for the Mahavishnu Orchestra.

 

[SoBeDad]

MIA
Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. could split, I think Jeff is the guy to own if I were to guess.
Devon Achane is the wildcard here late in season due to their injury taking them out of the picture for the early part. Also was a team linked to JT trade so we’ll see. I think these RBs belong on the bench or wait and see.

Good thread! Jeff Wilson has guaranteed money but there is a chance he could be cut. Mostert and Achane (shoulder) are guaranteed to make the 53. Based on performance, Ahmed and UDFA rookie Chris Brooks should make the team. Brooks at 235 lbs is their biggest back, and he has broken multiple tackles in preseason. Plus made some moves in game 2 to get a TD on a screen play. He could be plucked from the practice squad. I'm not expecting Arian Foster, or for him to even be on the 53, but he could be a good GL and short-yardage back in the NFL.

Key rules from Miami Herald's Barry Jackson:

>>By league rule, players who go on injured reserve before the team sets its 53-man roster on Tuesday must miss the entire season or reach an injury settlement with a team to be eligible to play again this season.

Waddle, Brandon Jones, Armstead, Achane and Ramsey thus will assuredly be on the initial 53. It’s a far tougher call with Robert Jones (knee), Hand (lower body) and Saubert (lower body injury).

Injured players who are on the initial 53 man roster can then be moved to the injured reserve list. Those players must spend four games on IR before being eligible to return. During a single season, a team can bring back as many as eight players who are placed on injured reserve, provided they are on the initial 53-man roster at 4 p.m. Tuesday. But those players must miss at least four games after they’re then moved to IR. Players released with injury settlements - which could be something in play with Saubert - could always be re-signed by Miami when they’re healthy. Waddle is expected to be ready for Miami’s Sept. 10 opener at the Chargers, and Armstead hopes to be.

In order for a player to be eligible to return from the PUP list and play this season, he must be on the PUP list from the start of training camp.

Any players with at least four years of experience have their contracts fully guaranteed for the entire season if they’re on a team’s roster during the first week of the season. That rule often motivates teams to cut fringe veteran players before the final cut-down on Tuesday but then re-sign them after Week 1 if needed.<<

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/...y-jackson/article277652253.html#storylink=cpy

 

[Hartliner]

Jerome Ford gets injured, Browns trade for Pierre Strong and that moves Zeke up in NEP pecking order!

 

[zamboni]

Jerome Ford gets injured, Browns trade for Pierre Strong and that moves Zeke up in NEP pecking order!

I don't think the presence of Strong really had much impact on Zeke's usage (or lack thereof).

 

[Anarchy99]

Jerome Ford gets injured, Browns trade for Pierre Strong and that moves Zeke up in NEP pecking order!

Not sure I agree with this one. Zeke was already above Strong in the NE pecking order. If anything, this could mean Ty Montgomery is healthy enough to make the roster and serve as a 3rd down / COP back (which is what they had in store for him when they signed him last year). That being said, what has Montgomery really done since his one quasi-relevant season in 2016 (RB 35)? Pretty much nothing. He could easily be cut by tomorrow as well. (Zeke probably doesn't really count as a RB lotto ticket . . . he should play enough and is an established back already.)

 

[Hartliner]

^ I'm fine with those takes, both players are just monitor for me and only worth adding if their starter goes down. Zeke looked washed, but can be goal line/short yardage back. and Pierre Strong is COP in my mind.

 

[Gally]

NYG
Matt Breida is not the answer. Most likely would be someone not on the roster.

I think Eric Gray is the choice over Breida if Saquon misses time. I also don't think the Giants go elsewhere in that situation.

 

[Payne]

So many people forgetting about Brian Robinson.

 

[Gally]

So many people forgetting about Brian Robinson.

I think is more about if the top guy goes down who could be more than useful. I assume he is treating Robinson as the starter and not really eligible

 

[cheese]

At this point, I think you need to get in the Colts RB roulette game. Someone is coming out of there a top 15 back imo and they’re all close to free. Who will they pick? I’m leaning Moss once healthy, but every guy here (moss/Jackson/hull) has the risk/reward profile you are looking for.

 

[RenegadeRoy]

Someone is coming out of there a top 15 back imo

Most likely it's Richardson.

 

[houston]

At this point, I think you need to get in the Colts RB roulette game. Someone is coming out of there a top 15 back imo and they’re all close to free. Who will they pick? I’m leaning Moss once healthy, but every guy here (moss/Jackson/hull) has the risk/reward profile you are looking for.

There’s 32 teams, why would the Colts have a top 15 back? They’re a really bad team.

 

[Scooby1974]

JT only missing 4 games and he'll be back in there, no? Moss with a broken arm is going to miss time and the others are likely to split for 4 weeks and watch Richardson scramble a bunch anyway.

 

[Ilov80s]

JT only missing 4 games and he'll be back in there, no? Moss with a broken arm is going to miss time and the others are likely to split for 4 weeks and watch Richardson scramble a bunch anyway.

We think he will be back but do we really know?

 

[rockaction]

this could mean Ty Montgomery is healthy enough to make the roster

 

[nirad3]

JT only missing 4 games and he'll be back in there, no? Moss with a broken arm is going to miss time and the others are likely to split for 4 weeks and watch Richardson scramble a bunch anyway.

I still lean Deon Jackson. Moss is a plodder. Jackson could catch 3-4 balls a game if Richardson utilizes him as he should. Jackson may only get 7-8 carries a game but the catches could make him relevant.

 

[Anarchy99]

this could mean Ty Montgomery is healthy enough to make the roster

The Pats added Montgomery to the practice squad (along with Kevin Harris).

 

[rockaction]

The Pats added Montgomery to the practice squad (along with Kevin Harris).

Can't quit Ty. I wasn't laughing at you, by the way. Was laughing at the notion of him making a roster. He's definitely on the practice squad, isn't he?

 

[Tanner9919]

Ty Chandler, Tyjae Spears, Tank Bigsby, Rachaad White , Zamir White, AJ Dillon, Gibbs >>>> montgomery,

 

[the spanker]

Does the signing of Gaskins affect Mattison's value?

 

[Chaka]

Does the signing of Gaskins affect Mattison's value?

Not IMO

 

[Football Jones]

Keaontay Ingram is an interesting sleeper. Conner is a decent all-around RB, but he’s 28 & injury-prone. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he got hurt for an extended period or hits the wall.

It remains to be seen how good Ingram is, but he’s got legit ability.

 

[Ray Barboni]

Does the signing of Gaskins affect Mattison's value?

Solidifies it if anything. They could’ve thrown money at Hunt, or Lenny. Instead they chose to sign a solid “depth” RB.

I’m not a huge believer in Mattison either, but the trust the Vikings have shown this off-season is forcing me to think twice

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Thank you for putting this up in the Shark Pool
Good read, makes me pause on what I'm doing.

 

[Boston]

Does the signing of Gaskins affect Mattison's value?

if you are a Mattison Owner this is what you want to see...Gaskin has flashed a little but if Mattison is legit he won't be a threat...would much rather see a guy just cut added than bringing in someone legit.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Rico Dawdle should be high on everyone’s list.

Pollard gets knicked up, he’s likely to be mighty valuable in a hurry.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Does the signing of Gaskins affect Mattison's value?

if you are a Mattison Owner this is what you want to see...Gaskin has flashed a little but if Mattison is legit he won't be a threat...would much rather see a guy just cut added than bringing in someone legit.

I have a hunch the Vikes are going to throw a lot more than they did when they had Cook.

I’m also not convinced this isn’t more of a committee than expected.

But I agree Gaskin isn’t much of a threat - but could be annoying to Mattison shareholders if used as a receiving back.

 

[ZADO]

.

 

[The Hank]

.

 

[packer_junkie]

Went WR heavy (Wilson, Waddle, Watson, Mclaurin, London)

SO had to take a bench full of lotto tickets to back up Robinson/Cook/Herbert

Went in order:
Mitchell
Perine
Penny
Warren
Gainwell

 

[zeeshan2]

Mostert count with Wilson going to IR and Achane injured?

 

[Pietaster2]

Mostert count with Wilson going to IR and Achane injured?

Mostert is going to be an instant RB2 to start the season and probably keep it going if Achane's shoulder issue lingers.

Separate question: Would you Sean Tucker true believers rank him above Allgeier on your handcuff lotto list?

 

[Gally]

Separate question: Would you Sean Tucker true believers rank him above Allgeier on your handcuff lotto list?

I am not necessarily a Tucker true believer but I think his opportunity to not be a handcuff has more chance to happen so I would have him above Algeier

 

[dino259]

Does the signing of Gaskins affect Mattison's value?

if you are a Mattison Owner this is what you want to see...Gaskin has flashed a little but if Mattison is legit he won't be a threat...would much rather see a guy just cut added than bringing in someone legit.

I have a hunch the Vikes are going to throw a lot more than they did when they had Cook.

I’m also not convinced this isn’t more of a committee than expected.

But I agree Gaskin isn’t much of a threat - but could be annoying to Mattison shareholders if used as a receiving back.

What does it mean for Ty Chandler? Not the biggest believer in Mattison and thinking the rookie is a flyer as an athlete. Gaskin the safety for 3rd down protection if Mattison isn't it.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Does the signing of Gaskins affect Mattison's value?

if you are a Mattison Owner this is what you want to see...Gaskin has flashed a little but if Mattison is legit he won't be a threat...would much rather see a guy just cut added than bringing in someone legit.

I have a hunch the Vikes are going to throw a lot more than they did when they had Cook.

I’m also not convinced this isn’t more of a committee than expected.

But I agree Gaskin isn’t much of a threat - but could be annoying to Mattison shareholders if used as a receiving back.

What does it mean for Ty Chandler? Not the biggest believer in Mattison and thinking the rookie is a flyer as an athlete. Gaskin the safety for 3rd down protection if Mattison isn't it.

I like chandler a lot. IMO he’s looked good.

Mattison has looked ok in spurts, but I don’t think he’s a special talent.

Gaskin has also shown flashes and as a receiver.

Definitely a TBD situation. IMO Mattison is overdrafted for his perceived opportunity. We’ll see what happens. I could be wrong.

 

[Lansdowne]

Only the coaches know for sure how they value the RBs. My best guess is Gaskin is simply another body in the RB room with Nwangwu starting the year on short-term IR. Chandler in theory should be the 3rd down back and the next man up to Mattison, unless the Vikes staff for some reason likes Gaskin more than Chandler.

 

[Birdie048]

Does the signing of Gaskins affect Mattison's value?

Not Mattison, but it could impact Ty Chandler's handcuff situ