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McFadden/Morris owners: Are you holding? (1 Viewer)

Z

zftcg

Footballguy
So at this moment, here's what we know: Zeke will definitely play the next two weeks, at which point there will be another hearing. At that point, the whole rigamarole will start over again. The suspension could be reinstated, and then there could be another appeal, rinse, repeat.

If you own Zeke and one or both of the backups, I think you most likely have to hold. But if, like me, you're a non-Zeke owner who picked them up opportunistically after last week's news broke, I think you really have to start weighing the opportunity cost.

Consider: You know that DMC/Alf will be useless for the next two weeks. After that point, they may regain the value we thought they were going to have this weekend. But even if they do, it's still pretty much a coin flip as to which one it will be.

I picked DMC up in two leagues. On one of them, my roster is pretty solid, so even though I also have Luck/Corey Davis stashed on my bench, I still might be able to get away with holding. But in my 16-teamer, where my RBs are a mess, I dropped Riddick last week to get him, and I think I may need to reverse that transaction.

Curious to hear how others are approaching it.

 
Dropped dmc for Darkwa in a league I am stacked at RB and keeping Morris in the league where my RB situation is not the best.

 
I'm keeping McFadden in the only league where I have Zeke, don't have either of them anywhere else.

 
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I tried to drop Morris for Lewis in a league I was speculating, but wasn't successful.  Still have him for now, but would cut him if something good enough came along.

I think the play where you're speculating is to attempt to trade McFadden/Morris or both to the Zeke owner so he doesn't have to worry about having a RB.  Just be reasonable in what you ask for.

 
Don't own Zeke, but picked up DMC last week.  Want to drop him, as I think it's more than likely that DMC will never be worth starting, but my RBs are my weak spot, so I am not cutting just yet...

 
Dropped McFadden after holding him less than a week when the Smallwood owner got impatient. No interest at this point but he should def be owned in all formats. For reference, my other RBs are Bell, Collins, Martin, & Mixon. 

 
Ridcully said:
Don't own Zeke, but picked up DMC last week.  Want to drop him, as I think it's more than likely that DMC will never be worth starting, but my RBs are my weak spot, so I am not cutting just yet...
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Interesting. I'm thinking about cutting him *because* RB is my weak spot, and I can't afford to have one who's not producing and may never produce. But I understand the "swing for the fences" logic as well.

 
JFS171 said:
I tried to drop Morris for Lewis in a league I was speculating, but wasn't successful.  Still have him for now, but would cut him if something good enough came along.

I think the play where you're speculating is to attempt to trade McFadden/Morris or both to the Zeke owner so he doesn't have to worry about having a RB.  Just be reasonable in what you ask for.
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:goodposting:  

I have DMC, the Zeke owner has Morris (and also Kamara/McKinnon on his bench in a league with 2RBs/no flex and Freeman as his other RB). So I took your suggestion and offered him McFadden for one of those two bench guys. Even though both have way more value than McFadden, considering that both Dallas and Atlanta are past their bye, I would think it's worth more to him to lock up the Cowboys backfield than have another RB he's never going to start. I just hope he sees it that way.  :tebow:

 
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I have both and no zeke.  Been holding them for three weeks.  I’m pot committed.  Deep benches and crappy waiver wire in dynasty.  Still have one spot to play with each week.  Last night I dropped Zach Miller to get ivory.  

 
SCT said:
I have both and no zeke.  Been holding them for three weeks.  I’m pot committed.  Deep benches and crappy waiver wire in dynasty.  Still have one spot to play with each week.  Last night I dropped Zach Miller to get ivory.  
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I'm not saying your decision is wrong.  However I am pointing out to others that holding them to this point shouldn't affect what you decide to do moving forward.  That, by definition, is the sunk cost fallacy.

By all means, if there's nothing better on the wire, hold them.  But declining better options on the wire now because you've held them for 3 weeks would be foolish, IMO.

 
JFS171 said:
I'm not saying your decision is wrong.  However I am pointing out to others that holding them to this point shouldn't affect what you decide to do moving forward.  That, by definition, is the sunk cost fallacy.

By all means, if there's nothing better on the wire, hold them.  But declining better options on the wire now because you've held them for 3 weeks would be foolish, IMO.
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Agreed....there just hasn't been anything that I felt I couldn't pass up and it's turned out well.  McGuire? Nope.  Gallman?  Nope. Really none of the "huge ww adds" has really panned out.  You could argue Buck Allen or Collins but I bid on those guys and didn't win.  I guess at the end of the day, I have one spot spare on my bench that's a guy I'm more willing to lose than the potential of the Cowboys starter.

 
beerbuff said:
I'm holding both. If I were to drop them I am afraid they'd be scooped up.
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Man, I sure hope my league mates do! That’s two less teams I have to worry about snagging late season lottery tickets once we’re through Wk 9 (my last significant bye cover.) I want young backups (Breida, Conner, Foreman, Mack) on the roster for the FF playoffs.

 
SCT said:
Agreed....there just hasn't been anything that I felt I couldn't pass up and it's turned out well.  McGuire? Nope.  Gallman?  Nope. Really none of the "huge ww adds" has really panned out.  You could argue Buck Allen or Collins but I bid on those guys and didn't win.  I guess at the end of the day, I have one spot spare on my bench that's a guy I'm more willing to lose than the potential of the Cowboys starter.
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I think every week, if not every day, you should be asking yourself, "Who's the last guy on my bench and do I still prefer him to whoever's on the WW?" You won't always make the right decision, or the same decision as everyone else, but the most important thing is that you keep asking the question.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Man, I sure hope my league mates do! That’s two less teams I have to worry about snagging late season lottery tickets once we’re through Wk 9 (my last significant bye cover.) I want young backups (Breida, Conner, Foreman, Mack) on the roster for the FF playoffs.
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It depends on your league!  Every one of the guys you listed has been gone for months.  To give you a barometer, I just dropped Ekeler to pick up Taylor Gabriel.....holding DMC and Alf.

 
SCT said:
BobbyLayne said:
Man, I sure hope my league mates do! That’s two less teams I have to worry about snagging late season lottery tickets once we’re through Wk 9 (my last significant bye cover.) I want young backups (Breida, Conner, Foreman, Mack) on the roster for the FF playoffs.
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It depends on your league!  Every one of the guys you listed has been gone for months.  To give you a barometer, I just dropped Ekeler to pick up Taylor Gabriel.....holding DMC and Alf.
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For sure, it's always about league size - shallow benches necessitate leaving guys on the wire. You know they might have value later but you also have to get there, so you hold bye week fillers who probably aren't going to win anyone a trophy but will help you make the top 6.

 
zftcg said:
So at this moment, here's what we know: Zeke will definitely play the next two weeks, at which point there will be another hearing. At that point, the whole rigamarole will start over again. The suspension could be reinstated, and then there could be another appeal, rinse, repeat.

If you own Zeke and one or both of the backups, I think you most likely have to hold. But if, like me, you're a non-Zeke owner who picked them up opportunistically after last week's news broke, I think you really have to start weighing the opportunity cost.

Consider: You know that DMC/Alf will be useless for the next two weeks. After that point, they may regain the value we thought they were going to have this weekend. But even if they do, it's still pretty much a coin flip as to which one it will be.

I picked DMC up in two leagues. On one of them, my roster is pretty solid, so even though I also have Luck/Corey Davis stashed on my bench, I still might be able to get away with holding. But in my 16-teamer, where my RBs are a mess, I dropped Riddick last week to get him, and I think I may need to reverse that transaction.

Curious to hear how others are approaching it.
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In the league where I own Zeke, both were already rostered when news that the 5th circuit had vacated the TRO broke.  12 team, large rosters, start 2-3 RBs, so every starting RB and pretty much all backups are rostered.  Both were drafted earlier than I was willing to take them, and I hoped that the suspension would either be the first 6 weeks, or get pushed until the offseason.  If one of those guys get dropped, I'll try to pick him up (both, if I can).  Smaller leagues, I'd imagine they might get dropped quicker.

 
dammit I've spent 10 bucks picking up and dropping DMC the last month. Now I wanna drop him again LOL

 
I own Zeke and I currently own DMC, but don't own Morris.

Prior to the news last night, I was going after Morris. Once the news broke I said forget it and I ALMOST dropped DMC.

I'm going to be dropping DMC soon. Here's why:

1. It's going to be three weeks before either DMC or Alf will be useful. 

2. My league mates have not shown much willingness to grab either DMC or Alf. I've repeatedly picked up/dropped both. Not a ton of interest.

3. I think it's highly likely Zeke remains on the field post 2 weeks. The judge didn't just pass along the decision. Reasons of unfairness and irreparable harm have been cited. Other judges are in agreement. I think it's very unlikely the returning judge opposes. 

4. My RB depth is solid: L. Bell, D. Martin, J. McKinnon, A. Abdullah, and D. Henry.

Bye bye DMC.

 
I own Zeke but wouldn't touch either even if the suspension kicks in. I just don't believe either of them do much of anything with Zeke out that I can't find far cheaper on the WW. While folks scrambled to get them, I sewed up other positions and RBs that are likely to outperform them anyways, so I wouldn't put a ton of stock in either if Zeke is out for any period of time beyond a possible flex.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Man, I sure hope my league mates do! That’s two less teams I have to worry about snagging late season lottery tickets once we’re through Wk 9 (my last significant bye cover.) I want young backups (Breida, Conner, Foreman, Mack) on the roster for the FF playoffs.
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Couldn’t DMC or Morris be the lottery ticket? 

 
Wrigley said:
Couldn’t DMC or Morris be the lottery ticket? 
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You won’t win if you don’t play

Not in my estimation. Of course new car smell is a trap we all fall into, but I don’t think either of these vets (well over 10K rushing yards between them) is a DeAngelo Williams -type kingmaker.

I’ve been wrong before, will be again.

:shrug:

 
zftcg said:
So at this moment, here's what we know: Zeke will definitely play the next two weeks, at which point there will be another hearing. At that point, the whole rigamarole will start over again. The suspension could be reinstated, and then there could be another appeal, rinse, repeat.

If you own Zeke and one or both of the backups, I think you most likely have to hold. But if, like me, you're a non-Zeke owner who picked them up opportunistically after last week's news broke, I think you really have to start weighing the opportunity cost.

Consider: You know that DMC/Alf will be useless for the next two weeks. After that point, they may regain the value we thought they were going to have this weekend. But even if they do, it's still pretty much a coin flip as to which one it will be.

I picked DMC up in two leagues. On one of them, my roster is pretty solid, so even though I also have Luck/Corey Davis stashed on my bench, I still might be able to get away with holding. But in my 16-teamer, where my RBs are a mess, I dropped Riddick last week to get him, and I think I may need to reverse that transaction.

Curious to hear how others are approaching it.
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Disagree with the bolded.  Judge Failla ruling in the NFL's favor before week 8 is still a possibility.  Folks are circling October 30th, but a decision could come sooner than that.

 
davearm said:
Disagree with the bolded.  Judge Failla ruling in the NFL's favor before week 8 is still a possibility.  Folks are circling October 30th, but a decision could come sooner than that.
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Yes, realized that after I posted. She's on vacation now, and will make a decision by the 30th. But that doesn't necessarily mean she's getting back the night of the 29th.

In my case, this is actually a very important distinction. I have DeMarco, who is on bye next week. My current plan is to start Cohen and Collins, but if Zeke is out, I would definitely roll the dice on DMC. So that would argue in favor of keeping him for now.

Still think the best option is to follow @JFS171's advice and engineer a trade to dump this mess on someone else in exchange for a more secure asset. But there are very few trades in this league, so that's a long shot. Still, I do think I'm going to sit tight for the time being and see how things play out.

 
Depends on bench sizes and other needs.

I have McFadden and will probably hold him but he's next on the chopping block. Morris is rostered by someone else. They may cut him tonight.

 
zftcg said:
Yes, realized that after I posted. She's on vacation now, and will make a decision by the 30th. But that doesn't necessarily mean she's getting back the night of the 29th.

In my case, this is actually a very important distinction. I have DeMarco, who is on bye next week. My current plan is to start Cohen and Collins, but if Zeke is out, I would definitely roll the dice on DMC. So that would argue in favor of keeping him for now.

Still think the best option is to follow @JFS171's advice and engineer a trade to dump this mess on someone else in exchange for a more secure asset. But there are very few trades in this league, so that's a long shot. Still, I do think I'm going to sit tight for the time being and see how things play out.
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Yep just getting some owners in my league (including the Elliott owner) to reply to an email is like pulling teeth.

Holding DMC for now.

 
zftcg said:
So at this moment, here's what we know: Zeke will definitely play the next two weeks, at which point there will be another hearing.
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Uh... I don't think so. IIRC the judgement is until Oct 30 or until the judge comes back from vacation, whichever comes first. There is a chance a decision is handed down prior to next week's deadline. I agree it's LIKELY he plays both weeks... but I think definitely is a bit strongly worded. 

/hipple

I'm holding DMC until judgement. 2 weeks at this point is worth the potential reward. 

 
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Surprised so many Zeke owners are holding onto DMC or Morris. I plan on dropping DMC right before Sunday's games.

Good chance Zeke plays 2 games at minimum so it's possible you could drop and pick back up. People have bye weeks to deal with right now. DMC would be a luxury.

Also, the odds that Zeke plays all season seems to have improved. Conventional wisdom is pointing towards the returning judge not reversing.

 
dropped McFadden & added Prosise for Seattle.  At least I know he's playing.  Tired of the Dallas situation.  count me out.

 
Well I don’t have a crystal ball and I can’t tell if my other lotto tickets will blow up in the next two weeks so I’m fine with holding dmc as I will have a set date when I can tell whether or not he’s droppable. Sure I’d drop him for an Adrian Peterson / McKinnon type but people pick those guys up before they bust out... 

is breida or Collins or Mack likely to have an injury in front of them in the next two weeks? Probably not but who knows. You aren’t any worse off with dmc. 

 
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I have all three, but I'm not sure how much longer I can afford that luxury.  I haven't looked too far ahead, but it's entirely possible that I'll need to drop either Morris or DMC to cover a bye week or something.

 
I had planned on dropping DMC in both leagues where I own him, but somehow he's still on my roster. In one league, I dropped Luck instead. In another, I'm trying to work out a trade (so far unsuccessfully) with the EE owner.

That said, I think if you need the spot there's nothing wrong with getting rid of them. The odds seem to be against either of them having fantasy relevance this year.

 
Unless you are in a short bench league, you hold. Alf/DMC could return RB2 value in case of suspension, or you can flip him to the Zeke owner. Not many stashes can offer that value.

 
zftcg said:
Yes, realized that after I posted. She's on vacation now, and will make a decision by the 30th. But that doesn't necessarily mean she's getting back the night of the 29th.

In my case, this is actually a very important distinction. I have DeMarco, who is on bye next week. My current plan is to start Cohen and Collins, but if Zeke is out, I would definitely roll the dice on DMC. So that would argue in favor of keeping him for now.

Still think the best option is to follow @JFS171's advice and engineer a trade to dump this mess on someone else in exchange for a more secure asset. But there are very few trades in this league, so that's a long shot. Still, I do think I'm going to sit tight for the time being and see how things play out.
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Just to follow up and show my money is where my mouth is, in the league i had both, I traded both for Darkwa.  It's a dynasty league, though I don't necessarily expect Darkwa to do anything beyond this year.  I'm kinda intrigued for this year though.  Everyone's situation is different.  I don't need Darkwa to pop, per se, but I can certainly use him in this league where I can start 4 RBs.  I used the open roster spot to add Malcolm Brown, a guy I've been high on for a while, is clearly next-in-line behind Gurley, and the starter ahead of him is getting borderline abuse-level workloads.  I'm not saying Gurley breaks, but I wouldn't be shocked either given he's averaging near 30 touches a game.

The reasons against holding, for me:
1) they're not an insurance policy if you don't own Zeke, which i don't in this league.
2) We don't have a clear answer as to who would be the lead guy
3) It burns two roster spots to have both, which I feel is the best way to handcuff the guys if you're trying to do it.
4) Zeke is playing the next 2 weeks.  I think it's likely he plays thereafter, but even if he gets suspended, I'm not going to feel comfortable starting either guy in the 3rd week until we see the situation play out and hopefully get some more clarity.  To have 2 bench spots tied up for that amount of time feels problematic to me when I don't know the outcome for sure.
5) I'm not sure either guy would establish himself as the clear guy ... I think we'd see some combination of Morris on early downs and McFadden on passing downs with neither being worth all that much.  The OL hasn't been that good this year, either.  Zeke is producing largely through volume, not incredible efficiency.

In the one league I own Zeke, I've got Morris on the bench.  I'd cut him if i felt there was something else worthwhile due to the reasons above, but at least in there he's a partial insurance policy.

 
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I absolutely think he plays the entire season if he wants but I'll hold off on cutting DMC or Alf for another two weeks just in case I'm wrong. But notice I said "if he wants". Dallas is 2-3 and can turn things around but the teams seem embroiled with distractions between Zeke and Jerry's anthem stance. Should Dallas continue to falter I'd be curious the pressure Jerry might apply on Elliot to get the suspension out of the way for the 2018 season.  In terms of what is best for team that would make a lot of sense if things go south next few weeks, but for Elliot he's just miss 6 games pay  plus ramifications of accepting his punishment being perceived as admitting guilt so for him I'd fight till bitter end. Could get interesting later between what the team wants him to do and what he wants to do.

 
Dropped Morris in both my leagues.

In one in particular, I have some serious bye issues weeks 8 and 9. Doing well at RB in both as well.

So to me, it didn't seem worth it to wait 2 weeks for a guy who MIGHT be relevant. Even if Zeke is suspended, no one knows if it's him or DMC. Maybe they split. The line isn't what it was last year, both may be ineffective.

Too many ifs.

 
I'm still content with holding them however I did offer each of them individually to the Zeke owner for Sterling Shepard. I'm thin at WR since losing OBJ but would still like to own one of them just for the upside.

 
I have the space on my bench to carry DMC for 2 weeks, so that's what I'm going to do as his potential ceiling if Zeke gets suspended is higher than anyone currently on my waiver wire. 

If there are other high ceiling guys on others' waiver wires, then I totally get dropping either DMC or Morris if you don't want to wait out the 2 weeks.

 
12 team with league with shallow benches and someone just dropped Martavis Bryant. I have AB and look at Bryant as slight insurance if AB were to go out - MB would have to get a little more love then. Also think MB has great upside.

I know as soon as I drop McFadden, Elliot gets his suspension put back in place. 

I guess this establishes what I think Elliot's (maybe) backup is worth.

 
I decided to drop both right before Sunday's games. 

After watching Rod Smith rumble for 61 yards on 8 carries I'm happy I did. There's no way in hell I'm carrying all three of DMC, Morris, and Smith. And there's no way ANYONE can say with any degree of certainty that any of them will actually emerge.

Add to this, today's denied request from the NFL and what seems to be an increased likelihood of the returning judge agreeing with Crotty and it's Zeke or bust for me.

 
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