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Insoxicated
First off... PLEASE keep politics OUT of this thread.
This Is NOT about blaming _________ for not doing _______. We have plenty of slap-fighting in the other forum. Take it there. I'd like to keep this thread on the topic of what the threat is, how viable it is, and what the potential results/fallout might be from such an attack.
On October 12 (last thursday) "DR. WILLIAM R. GRAHAM, CHAIRMAN DR. PETER VINCENT PRY, CHIEF OF STAFF" from the "COMMISSION TO ASSESS THE THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES FROM ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE (EMP) ATTACK" gave a presentation to the US House Committee on Homeland Security.
This is the report in full straight from the source (not Fox News or MSNBC) >
I'm going to attempt to summarize this report raw quotes in an attempt walk you guys through the issue at hand.
For those looking for a TLDR summary:
What is a Super EMP Weapon and what does it do?
We know about their ICBM ambitions and rapid progress... but let's look at other options.
A bit more info about the satellite threat:
North Korean comments on nuclear attacks against the US:
Historical Tests & Results of EMP weapons by the US and Russia (and possible evidence that NK is walking down that road):
OKAY:
• So we know what EMP Superweapon is.
• We know NK has them, and they are aggressively looking at how to deploy them.
• We know the impact they have had on electronic/power systems in the past.
• We have heard reports that modern electronics are FAR more suceptible to these attacks than during those tests.
Let's look at historical results of power outages from single points of failure:
The issue is an EMP attack, reportedly, would introduce multiple points of failure:
This Is NOT about blaming _________ for not doing _______. We have plenty of slap-fighting in the other forum. Take it there. I'd like to keep this thread on the topic of what the threat is, how viable it is, and what the potential results/fallout might be from such an attack.
On October 12 (last thursday) "DR. WILLIAM R. GRAHAM, CHAIRMAN DR. PETER VINCENT PRY, CHIEF OF STAFF" from the "COMMISSION TO ASSESS THE THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES FROM ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE (EMP) ATTACK" gave a presentation to the US House Committee on Homeland Security.
This is the report in full straight from the source (not Fox News or MSNBC) >
I'm going to attempt to summarize this report raw quotes in an attempt walk you guys through the issue at hand.
For those looking for a TLDR summary:
Evidence of NK's interest in, and possession of, a Super-EMP weapon:
Notes on rapid advances of NK's Nuclear capability here:
How has NK advanced their Nuke/EMP program far more rapidly than we expected?
What is a Super EMP Weapon and what does it do?
How could NK Deliver an EMP Weapon over US Soil?
We know about their ICBM ambitions and rapid progress... but let's look at other options.
A bit more info about the satellite threat:
North Korea’s KMS-3 and KMS-4 satellites were launched to the south on polar trajectories and passed over the United States on their first orbit. Pyongyang launched KMS-4 on February 7, 2017, shortly after its fourth illegal nuclear test on January 6, that began the present protracted nuclear crisis with North Korea.
The south polar trajectory of KMS-3 and KMS-4 evades U.S. Ballistic Missile Early Warning Radars and National Missile Defenses, resembling a Russian secret weapon developed during the Cold War, called the Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) that would have used a nuclear-armed satellite to make a surprise EMP attack on the United States.
(My note: Remember from above that Russian plans and scientists have made their way to NK)
The south polar trajectory of KMS-3 and KMS-4 evades U.S. Ballistic Missile Early Warning Radars and National Missile Defenses, resembling a Russian secret weapon developed during the Cold War, called the Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) that would have used a nuclear-armed satellite to make a surprise EMP attack on the United States.
(My note: Remember from above that Russian plans and scientists have made their way to NK)
North Korean comments on nuclear attacks against the US:
Historical Tests & Results of EMP weapons by the US and Russia (and possible evidence that NK is walking down that road):
OKAY:
• So we know what EMP Superweapon is.
• We know NK has them, and they are aggressively looking at how to deploy them.
• We know the impact they have had on electronic/power systems in the past.
• We have heard reports that modern electronics are FAR more suceptible to these attacks than during those tests.
Let's look at historical results of power outages from single points of failure:
--The Great Northeast Blackout of 2003--that put 50 million people in the dark for a day, contributed to at least 11 deaths, and cost an estimated $6 billion—originated from a single failure point when a powerline contacted a tree branch, damaging less than 0.0000001 (0.00001%) of the system.
--The New York City Blackout of 1977, that resulted in the arrest of 4,500 looters and injury of 550 police officers, was caused by a lightning strike on a substation that tripped two circuit breakers.
--The Great Northeast Blackout of 1965, that effected 30 million people, happened because a protective relay on a transmission line was improperly set.
--India’s nationwide blackout of July 30-31, 2012—the largest blackout in history, effecting 670 million people, 9% of the world population—was caused by overload of a single high-voltage powerline.
--India’s blackout of January 2, 2001—effecting 226 million people—was caused by equipment failure at the Uttar Pradesh substation.
--Indonesia’s blackout of August 18, 2005—effecting 100 million people—was caused by overload of a high-voltage powerline.
--Brazil’s blackout of March 11, 1999—effecting 97 million people—was caused by a lightning strike on an EHV transformer substation.
--Italy’s blackout of September 28, 2003—effecting 55 million people—was caused by overload of two high-voltage powerlines.
--Germany, France, Italy, and Spain experienced partial blackouts on November 4, 2006— effecting 10-15 million people—from accidental shutdown of a high-voltage powerline.
--The San Francisco blackout in April 2017 was caused by the failure of a single high voltage breaker.
--The New York City Blackout of 1977, that resulted in the arrest of 4,500 looters and injury of 550 police officers, was caused by a lightning strike on a substation that tripped two circuit breakers.
--The Great Northeast Blackout of 1965, that effected 30 million people, happened because a protective relay on a transmission line was improperly set.
--India’s nationwide blackout of July 30-31, 2012—the largest blackout in history, effecting 670 million people, 9% of the world population—was caused by overload of a single high-voltage powerline.
--India’s blackout of January 2, 2001—effecting 226 million people—was caused by equipment failure at the Uttar Pradesh substation.
--Indonesia’s blackout of August 18, 2005—effecting 100 million people—was caused by overload of a high-voltage powerline.
--Brazil’s blackout of March 11, 1999—effecting 97 million people—was caused by a lightning strike on an EHV transformer substation.
--Italy’s blackout of September 28, 2003—effecting 55 million people—was caused by overload of two high-voltage powerlines.
--Germany, France, Italy, and Spain experienced partial blackouts on November 4, 2006— effecting 10-15 million people—from accidental shutdown of a high-voltage powerline.
--The San Francisco blackout in April 2017 was caused by the failure of a single high voltage breaker.
The issue is an EMP attack, reportedly, would introduce multiple points of failure:
"In the event of a nuclear EMP attack on the United States, a widespread protracted blackout is inevitable. This commonsense assessment is also supported by the nation’s best computer modeling:
--Modeling by the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) reportedly assesses that a terrorist attack that destroys just 9 of 2,000 EHV transformers--merely 0.0045 (0.45%) of all EHV transformers in the U.S. national electric grid--would be catastrophic damage, causing a protracted nationwide blackout.
--Modeling by the Congressional EMP Commission assesses that a terrorist nuclear EMP attack, using a primitive 10-kiloton nuclear weapon, could destroy dozens of EHV transformers, thousands of SCADAS and electronic systems, causing catastrophic collapse and protracted blackout of the U.S. Eastern Grid, putting at risk the lives of millions.27
--Modeling by the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) reportedly assesses that a terrorist attack that destroys just 9 of 2,000 EHV transformers--merely 0.0045 (0.45%) of all EHV transformers in the U.S. national electric grid--would be catastrophic damage, causing a protracted nationwide blackout.
--Modeling by the Congressional EMP Commission assesses that a terrorist nuclear EMP attack, using a primitive 10-kiloton nuclear weapon, could destroy dozens of EHV transformers, thousands of SCADAS and electronic systems, causing catastrophic collapse and protracted blackout of the U.S. Eastern Grid, putting at risk the lives of millions.27
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