Joe Mixon Player Spotlight (1 Viewer)

After a hiatus, we're bringing the Player Spotlight threads back to the Shark Pool. For those who are new around here, the Player Spotlights are a key feature of our preseason on the site. They're in-depth looks at key players, including pros and cons, and our staff projections. For years, we also included the best commentary from the Shark Pool. A few years ago, activity in the Pool died down and commentary waned. But, we have confidence in a resurgence.

So here's the deal. Discuss your thoughts about the player in question. We'll pick the best comments from the bunch and use them (and give you credit) in the published articles.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Joe Mixon, RB - Cincinnati Bengals

After significant hype entering his rookie season, Mixon's statistics were disappointing. It's no secret that Cincinnati's offensive line was abysmal last season, but they've upgraded the unit via free agency the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. The team did little at the running back position to generate competition for touches, leaving third down work between Mixon and Giovani Bernard as the biggest question around Mixon's opportunity. Mixon's talent was never questioned and is still present. With another year of experience and a better offensive line, can he produce better numbers in 2018? Is the middle of the third round (RB 15-18 range) a fair price for him?

I thought Mixon played much better than his statistics indicated last year. He was constantly having to make guys miss the second he got the ball, just to get back to the line of scrimmage. The o-line has been improved, how much is up for debate, but it'll certainly be a better. The Bengals also had a very strange season, where they had their fewest rushing attempts and TD's since the backfield was led by Benjarvis Green-Ellis. That was probably a bit of a fluke.

Mixon is a guy I'm pretty high on, and he's a guy I'm targeting as a RB2. Bernard will certainly stay involved on 3rd downs, but Mixon will still see plenty of passing game work, and likely the overwhelming majority of rushing work. He's still the same guy a lot of people thought was the most talented RB in last year's draft.

My projection: 220-900-7 rushing 30-200-1 receiving, and I think there is upside for a lot more if the o-line takes a step forward. I have Mixon between RB10 and RB15. In the cluster with McCoy, Freeman and ahead of McKinnon.

Reasons to be high on Mixon:

1.  The Bengals let Hill go.  Mixon streaks were killed by being swapped out for Hill at the worst possible time in the first half of the year.  Mixon's 3.5 YPC on the year is pretty bleak until you compare it to Hill's 3.1

2.  The Bengals have a new O-Line coach that is emphasizing toughness and run blocking in OTAs

3.  The Bengals line has a chance to jump from bottom five to top half after adding a proven LT and 1st round center.

4.  The Bengals defense reloaded and looks above average on the line and in the secondary.  The LB may be a weakness until Burfict returns, but once he does, there is a good chance Bengals will have more garbage time runs than in 2017.

5.  The offense looks to be much less predictable in 2018 (Lazur used Zampese's very predictable system the rest of the year.  This off-season he put in his own.)

Reasons not to be high on Mixon:

1.  Gio Bernard is still a very good back and will garner significant touches.  Gio had a 4.36 YPC behind the same line that Mixon only had a 3.5.  Gio is also a more proven receiver.  In fact, after Hill went down in week 8, Mixon's targets were the same.  In the first 8 weeks (7 games played), Mixon caught 17 of 17 targets for 189 versus in the 7 games post-Hill, he caught 13 of 17 targets for 98 yards.  Targets were the same but results were a lot less because the first seven games featured a lot of garbage time check downs. Meanwhile, Gio's targets went from 19 with Hill to 41 post-Hill.

2.  All but three of the players on the defensive roster are learning a new system for the first time in their NFL careers.  Prior to 2018, the Bengals have had the same system since Zimmer's arrival a decade ago.  The new system focuses on taking chances.  If these players cannot quickly adjust to Teryl Austin's system, the Bengals could be playing 2 TDs down much of the year.

3.  Mark Walton, the Bengals 4th round RB selection, appears to be better than his draft slot.  he has been labeled a draft steal by multiple commentators.  He seems to fit the 3rd down back model, so not a direct challenge to Mixon, but might be good enough between the tackles to steal touches as well.

4.  The Bengals seem to be focused on passing in the red zone.  If Eifert returns and the new Tate is the huge target he has been in OTA's, add in the ever present AJ Green, and there may not be many goal line carries.

5.  Mixon played in 14 games last year.  In five of those he had less than 2.5 YPC.  In 7 of those 14 games he scored less than 10 PPR points.

Excuses aside I don't have a lot of faith in a guy that looks that bad no matter his pedigree

Brisco54 said:

3.  Mark Walton, the Bengals 4th round RB selection, appears to be better than his draft slot.  he has been labeled a draft steal by multiple commentators.  He seems to fit the 3rd down back model, so not a direct challenge to Mixon, but might be good enough between the tackles to steal touches as well.

Click to expand...

Haven't heard this...thanks for the heads up. 

What strikes me about RB right now is this.  At current ADP levels, Devonta Freeman a player who is the lynchpin on a potentially explosive offense and who has averaged 1450 YFS/12 TD's over the past 3 seasons is going RB11 (FFC currently) and Mixon is RB16.  Freeman is still only 26, so it's not like he's entering his twilight years.

That's a HUGE drop off in a very small section of the draft. 

It's not to say that Mixon can't be a good player or exceed his draft standing.  After all, Le'Veon Bell also averaged 3.5 YPC his rookie year and we see where he is now.  And to be fair, based on situation alone, Mixon's ADP may not be that much out of whack.  He was seen as a comparable talent to Dalvin Cook and if not for the off-the-field issues...would have been in the Round 1 conversation.  But the drop-off in comfort level between the RB you can get in the middle of Round 2 v beginning of Round 3 is significant.

So in the beginning of Round 3 the place where you want to draft an RB when if you think about the beginning of Round 5, you've got other fliers you can take like Ronald Jones, Royce Freeman, Sony Michel, Dion Lewis, Carlos Hyde, et al?

I am really big on Mixon this season.   I said this in another thread---but virtually every x-factor that worked against him last season has been improved or eliminated this season. 

1) last season they started the season with Hill, Mixon and Bernard.  This season--no more Hill which opens things up for Mixon.  I expect mixon to get a lions share of the goal line carries which should help his touchdown total

2).  They had a beyond terrible OL last season--like ridiculously bad.  They have made a few moves to improve the line situation--so this is definitely a step in the right direction. 

3) mixon is in crazy good shape.  He's dropped some weight which  compliments his skill set even better. People sometimes forget that this guy can run with power but is also a great pass catching rb. 

4). his coach has already mentioned that he sees Mixon as being a bell-cow type back.  He will find ways to get him touches

5) Mixon had some well deserved distractions coming into the season last year.  This year seems more like a more fresh and focused start--so I think that helps him.  

6) Bernard's touches per game have been decreasing every year since his rookie season.  While I think that Bernard will be a solid flex option ppr leagues--and is a great handcuff---I don't see him taking over Mixon's lions share if Mixon stays healthy.  

I personally think Mixon has top 7-10 ppr potential if he can stay healthy.   

I have discussed a lot of my opinions about Mixon, Bernard and the Bengals in this thread

As a RB prospect I thought Mixon was a borderline tier one RB and I had him as a high tier two going into the draft where Mixon was selected high enough for me to move him up to tier one. I still do not think he is as good as Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette or Christian McCaffrey. As it turns out Hunt and Kamara were RB who had more success as rookies than I expected. I regret having Mixon ahead of those two with the benefit of hindsight.

Something that has bothered me about peoples views on Joe Mixon was that he is an unquestioned talent and the only thing wrong with him was the off the field issues. I have heard this so many times it makes me flip my lid a bit how lazy and incorrect I think this analysis is.

Joe Mixon never had to run between the tackles for Oklahoma. Samajae Perine was doing that for them. Joe Mixon was often schemed into space on the side line and rarely had to read blocking. Then he was thrust into a situation where defensive athletes can definitely run with him and he has to develop vision, patience and timing with an offensive line that is struggling. Thats some pretty solid evidence that there were more issues with Mixons game than just the off the field stuff.

I think a lot of flaws in a RB game as a college player are things that can be improved on with coaching and practice. I don't know if vision is one of them though. So I worry about Mixons development and ability to learn how to take advantage of his blocking within the play call and based on what the defense is showing him. 

The Bengals are going to ask him to do that even more now with Jeremy Hill gone. They changed their offensive line coach for the first time in a long time. I wonder if they focused on a coach who would use scheme and techniques with the offensive line to get the most out of Mixon? The Bengals did change offensive coordinators mid season last year due to the offenses woes early on. I really don't think very highly of Lazor however, he bombed out in Miami and he may be outmatched with the Bengals as well.

I really like Giovanni Bernard and I think the Bengals have mismanaged his career. I think they should give him more opportunity than they have. At least Mixon is a better player than Jeremy Hill but Bernard is very good and I do not think he is going away. Most recent speculation I have heard was a 60/40 split in snaps between Mixon and Bernard.

Bernard did have more snaps than Mixon last season 50% to 39.9% if you pro rate for the two games Mixon missed, he would have had 45% of the offensive snaps.

Giovanni Bernard 16 games 105 rushing attempts 458 yards (4.4 ypc) 2 TD 60 targets 43 receptions 389 yards 2 TD 847 yards 5.7 yards per touch 4 TD 

Joe Mixon 14 games 178 rushing attempts 626 yards (3.5 ypc) 4 TD 34 targets 30 receptions 287 yards 0 TD 913 total yards 4.4 yards per touch 4 TD 

As an excuse people talk about how bad the Bengals offensive line was, and it was. However Bernard was able to be successful with that same offensive line, and Bernard put up just as good a numbers as Mixon's best game when Mixon was out with injury. Something he likely could have been doing all along...

It cannot be overstated how much the Bengals offensive line got worse with the departures of LT Whitworth to the Rams and Zeitler to the Brows in free agency last year. Those are two great offensive linemen and the players they replaced them with, not so much.

2017 927 plays 510 pass attempts 377 rushing attempts
2016 1050 plays 563 pass attempts 446 rushing attempts
2015 1004 plays 505 pass attempts 467 rushing attempts

The offensive plays were way down from a team that has usually run 1000 plays or more for a pretty long time now. I certainly do not put all the blame for that on Mixon, but his deficiencies did not help the cause. The defense is also part of the problem and that may continue. Honestly I am not sure why Marvin Lewis is still their head coach, but he is. Their long term planning and transitioning from star offensive linemen was not executed well at all, and they had been preparing for it for several seasons now. The Bengals use a lot of the ihigh draft picks on the offensive side of the ball and a lot of their picks there recently haven't worked out as well as they have in the past. Andy Dalton is a mediocre QB who needs strong supporting cast around him, and I am not sure that is the case anymore.

Projections for Mixon right now would be difficult for me as I see such a wide variance in possible outcomes. He could explode and have a great season, flirting with top 12 numbers as his upside, or he could struggle and may be a spot starter based on matchup.

3 year average Bengals offense 994 plays 526 pass attempts 430 rushing attempts

With Dalton and others getting about 50 rushing attempts this leaves 380 for the RBs

If Mixon plays 60% of the snaps this year and gets 60% of the rushing attempts that would be 228 Jeremy Hill had just over 220 rushing attempts 3 seasons in a row before 2017 so that seems like a reasonable expectation for Mixon and that the Bengals will continue to rotate Bernard and perhaps a 3rd RB a small amount as well, which they have been doing for several years in a row now.

I think Mixon has great ability to change direction and make defenders miss. He could really improve on his pad level and make it more difficult for defenders to tackle him though. Mixon is an excellent receiver and should be used in that way more. At least more than Hill was. Mixon was excellent with his opportunities as a receiver as a rookie being above average for a RB in catch rate and yards per reception. I think Mixon will have 50 targets as a median range, possibly 60 for his upside or 40 for the downside. 40 would still be more than Hills high of 32. With 50 targets I think Mixon will have 40 receptions.

230 rushing attempts (4.2) 966 yards 6 TD 40 receptions (8 ypr it was 9.6 last year) 320 yards 1 TD which is 177 points in standard scoring leagues (RB 11 over the last 3 years) or 217 in PPR scoring leagues (RB 10 over the last 3 years).

I do think Mixon is good enough to enter the top 12 of RB scoring. Possibly this year despite my doubts about him. He is a very gifted player. I am just trying to dismiss the myth that Mixon is a perfect RB prospect. He isn't and he still might struggle again. I don't really feel comfortable with the above numbers, which seem more like his upside to me than a median range projection for him based on my gut consolidation of all of my observations about him and the Bengals, so I would likely reduce the points by 15% for a median range projection for him.

151 points in standard (RB 17) 185 points in PPR (RB 18)

Mixon is being drafted at RB 12 according to this ADP so in my view the cost of his upside is already represented by the price. I don't see much value in drafting him this high and I see risk and downside that could cause drafters to regret it. It also means I am unlikely to roster Mixon in redrafts this year because he is more expensive than I think he is worth.

As an outside observer looking at it objectively I think Bernard should be the starter. But Marvin Lewis is the head coach still so I do not expect that to change. He doesn't see Bernard as a starter even though he almost always performs well (yes he had a poor game against the Vikings defense, no shame in that though). Bernard was much more effective than Mixon on 1st and 10 situations gaining 5.1 ypc compared to 3.3 ypc. So why would you have Mixon be your RB on first down?

Thats how Marvin rolls.

Good luck to all the Mixon believers. He is a very talented player. Because of his main weakness I think he is more dependent on good offensive line play and schemes that can simplify his reads may be the best thing to do with him. That is what Oklahoma did. Not sure if Lazor can cook up something similar or not. The whole thing is a bit square peg in a round role to me. They already had Bernard who excels at the same things Mixon does well, yet they will ask Mixon to do what Jeremy Hill did as well as he could with a better offensive line, which I do not think really fits Mixons best skill set. It is up to Mixon to somehow develop that part of his game. I do not know how well he will do trying to accomplish that.

Biabreakable said:

Mixon is being drafted at RB 12 according to this ADP so in my view the cost of his upside is already represented by the price. I don't see much value in drafting him this high and I see risk and downside that could cause drafters to regret it. It also means I am unlikely to roster Mixon in redrafts this year because he is more expensive than I think he is worth.

Click to expand...

This is how I see Mixon at his current ADP as well.  Not enough upside to justify the price, and I'm not convinced a few O line changes will change that.