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KarmaPolice

DraftKings Week 4

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Let's try an earlier separate thread. 

Tons of value at WR.  Players at 5k or less = Fitz, Ridley, Geronimo, M.Williams, Boyd, Enunwa, J.Grant.   I could see using 2-3 of them and loading up elsewhere.  

Hyde at 5.5k also seems too cheap.  

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The Lions may have beat the Pats but I still doubt their ability to stop the run. I'm going all in on Zeke for 7.7 this week. Dalton with Boyd or Ross +Eifert is very tempting if AJ is out.

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I haven't played with builds, but are either Rosen or Allen worth the gamble at those cheap prices? Both going against stastically bad pass Ds.  

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48 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

The Lions may have beat the Pats but I still doubt their ability to stop the run. I'm going all in on Zeke for 7.7 this week. Dalton with Boyd or Ross +Eifert is very tempting if AJ is out.

I like that Zeke call too.  

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4 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I haven't played with builds, but are either Rosen or Allen worth the gamble at those cheap prices? Both going against stastically bad pass Ds.  

I'm going to use a super cheap QB in a .25 entry, right now have Beathard in with Zeke,Barkley,Thomas and Kittle.

Also, am I crazy to be drawn to DJ at 6.6k?

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46 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

I'm going to use a super cheap QB in a .25 entry, right now have Beathard in with Zeke,Barkley,Thomas and Kittle.

Also, am I crazy to be drawn to DJ at 6.6k?

:shrug:   I think it's a good gpp pivot off somebody like Gio B, but I thought that last week too.   It's just nuts that arguably one of the top 3-4 backs in the league is at 6.6K.   I am going to take another shot or two just in case the O gets a slight boost with the rookie.  

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Started breaking down position by position last night and started with RB.   

Here is the small list of RBs who are getting 18+ total touches per game, at least a couple RZ touches/game, and also 5+ targets/game to start the year:

Kamara, Barkley, Zeke, Gordon.     The one that wasn't on the list, but the activity last week and also that Mixon was on the list for the first couple weeks is Gio

Kamara is insanely expensive (but still maybe worth it), but I think I will be looking at those 5 guys for cash b/c of volume.  

 

Here is the list of players who have 18+touches/g, but didn't quite have the targets/game:

Gurley, Conner, Hyde, Howard, Lynch, Hunt, L.Miller         I also wrote down C.Carson here b/c of his 32 carries last week.  That might be something to look into. 

 

A few other players that I saw their touches increase the last couple weeks and thought to look into:

A.Collins, Crowell, Kerr. Johnson, S.Michel   and I also put David Johnson's name down.  

 

 

Later I am going to look at OL vs. DL matchups and DVOA, but on DK I like to look at touches and targets more anyway, so I think those top 5 names plus David Johnson, Hyde, and Carson will form my initial pool of players at RB.  

 

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Another cheap guy for gpp I like this week is J Richard of the Raiders. When the Raiders are behind he is on the field and targeted alot and is only 3.6k.

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1 hour ago, Raging weasel said:

Another cheap guy for gpp I like this week is J Richard of the Raiders. When the Raiders are behind he is on the field and targeted alot and is only 3.6k.

He was on my list of guys with 5 + targets/week, and was going to look at him too.  

 

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It wasn't a ticket contest, but wtf - I turned my 50cents into $25 last night in MLB with a couple Brewer stacks.   I think I am going to take a couple shots at the $1M gpp or a couple bigger dollar (for me) gpps on Sunday with those winnings along with whatever else I was going to do.  

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Here was the list for TEs averaging 5+ targets/game.  Bolded are vs. good matchups this week according to DVOA.  

Ertz, Kelce, Cook, Kittle, Ebron, Graham, Gronk, Njoku, Eifert, Burton, Watson, AS -J

 

One name not on the list that I wrote down because his targets were improving was OJ Howard.  

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WRs is a long list.  I wrote down players that were getting 9+ targets/game to see what that got me:

 

10+/game:  Brown, M.Thomas, JuJu, Tate, OBJ, Julio, Hilton, Hopkins, Evans, Fuller     (bolded = good matchups)

9+/game:  Enunwa, Adams, Golladay, A.Robinson, Cobb, Agholor

 

A few cheap guys that stood out b/c their targets seemed to be picking up:  Boyd, Ridley, Calloway, Gabriel, Ross

 

I think what I am doing is probably focusing on the main RBs above, and incorporating the WRs into stacks.  

 

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For Ds, I like to look at the adjusted sack rate chart and focus slightly more on home teams.  The top 6 on the chart were:

Det, Az, Chargers, GB, Chicago, Pitts.     All but Det are home this week, and the bolded are less than 3K.  

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They got updated today, so I looked that the OL vs DL stats for rushing attacks, and here were the top ones on the main slate:

Cincy, Dallas, Philly, Az, Clev,  Chargers.      That just reinforces the Gio, Zeke, Gordon, and Hyde plays already mentioned, so I will look that those guys even more.  

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One podcast I listened to mentioned yet again how bad Atl is vs. passes to the RB and we have seen that the past couple weeks.  They are worst in the league for the last couple years.  They also mentioned who was 2nd worst over that stretch ---  Cincy.  

 

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So... what stacks do people love this week??

A lot of the big totals for the week are the primetime games, so they won't be on the main slate.  The bigger two on the main slate are NO/NYG and Cinc/Atl.  

 

I like the Cinc/Atl game, BUT with their explosion last week, people will be all on Boyd and Ridley.  I think this might be an interesting week to pivot to others.  After I heard the stat from the podcast that I posted above, I think going for both Rbs in that game might be lower owned, as maybe will Julio, Ross, and the TEs.    How about something like Ryan - Coleman - Julio - Eifert?  

Also popular, but the offenses are focused, so Brees - Kamara and/or Thomas + OBJ or Barkley?

Watson has been good, but hasn't had the blow up game.  I keep thinking about Watson/Fuller + Hilton

I keep thinking about GB after a bad road loss.   Not sure what the stack is there, but I have Rodgers/Graham written down and also Cobb?

One of these days, Brady is going to go off.    I think Brady/Gronk will be low owned as everybody pays down at QB and TE for the week.   Could run it back with a cheap Miami Wr too.  Parker for only 3.5K?

 

My cheap stack I wrote down was Mayfield - Calloway - J.Cook  

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I'm going to be running 3 QBs in gpps this week. Rosen, Manning, and Wentz. Rosen and Manning are gut calls, but Went is QB 1 in my model by a mile. 

The only RB I want to mention is Chris Carson. As long as he plays he is the best value of the week. Gordon is the obvious RB 1 for me this week.

I'm also planning on doing something a little unusual at defense and wr. Enunwa has a plus matchup against Jax this week according to PFF. He'll still be low owned though. I like at least one pick 6 against Darnolf though, so I'm playing both Jax defense and Enunwa in the same lineups.

Edited by RunPassCatch_22
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13 hours ago, RunPassCatch_22 said:

I'm going to be running 3 QBs in gpps this week. Rosen, Manning, and Wentz. Rosen and Manning are gut calls, but Went is QB 1 in my model by a mile. 

The only RB I want to mention is Chris Carson. As long as he plays he is the best value of the week. Gordon is the obvious RB 1 for me this week.

I'm also planning on doing something a little unusual at defense and wr. Enunwa has a plus matchup against Jax this week according to PFF. He'll still be low owned though. I like at least one pick 6 against Darnolf though, so I'm playing both Jax defense and Enunwa in the same lineups.

Interesting.  None of those guys were on my radar - I will have to look into them.  

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Which of these do you guys like better for a $5 double up

A) Brees

Kamara

Elliott

Shephard

Boyd

Callaway

Hooper

Coleman

Phil

B) Dalton

Kamara

Elliott

Shephard

Boyd

Godwin

Eifert

Coleman

Packers

I'm leaning towards A right now.

 

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1 hour ago, Raging weasel said:

Which of these do you guys like better for a $5 double up

A) Brees

Kamara

Elliott

Shephard

Boyd

Callaway

Hooper

Coleman

Phil

B) Dalton

Kamara

Elliott

Shephard

Boyd

Godwin

Eifert

Coleman

Packers

I'm leaning towards A right now.

 

Played around with dropping down to cheaper Def and came up with option C which I think is the best

Dalton

Zeke

Kamara

Shephard

Boyd

Callaway

Hooper

Barkley

Dallas

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2 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

Mostly because he's $400 cheaper and already have bargain basement WRs.

Ah.  I think I had their prices flipped in my head.  

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2 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

Played around with dropping down to cheaper Def and came up with option C which I think is the best

Dalton

Zeke

Kamara

Shephard

Boyd

Callaway

Hooper

Barkley

Dallas

I had a similar build, and was thinking with the value at WR that the 3 stud RB would be a good idea this week.  Not sure if I do a cash LU this week, or what I am doing, but wrote this down:

Ryan

Zeke/Gordon/Gio

Fuller/Shepard/Enunwa

Hooper

Bears

 

I think my LU with Kamara instead of Zeke had Boyd instead of Fuller.  So I was starting at which combo was better - Zeke/Fuller, or Kamara/Boyd.  

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On 9/26/2018 at 11:14 AM, KarmaPolice said:

It wasn't a ticket contest, but wtf - I turned my 50cents into $25 last night in MLB with a couple Brewer stacks.   I think I am going to take a couple shots at the $1M gpp or a couple bigger dollar (for me) gpps on Sunday with those winnings along with whatever else I was going to do.  

Want to win some money in baseball this weekend? Stack the Braves, especially the SP. The Phillies are just mailing it in at this point. 

The Bears will be playing the 2nd worst pass DEF Sunday; Mitchell Trubisky/Allen Robinson and/or Taylor Gabriel stack for GPP's anybody? I do believe I'll have a little of that. 

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54 minutes ago, reel_smooth said:

Want to win some money in baseball this weekend? Stack the Braves, especially the SP. The Phillies are just mailing it in at this point. 

The Bears will be playing the 2nd worst pass DEF Sunday; Mitchell Trubisky/Allen Robinson and/or Taylor Gabriel stack for GPP's anybody? I do believe I'll have a little of that. 

I've been staring at Gabriel for a couple days now.  

I will look into that baseball tip.  

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Also with that Chicago game- their D will be quite chalky, meaning Fitz and TB could be low owned.  

I wrote down Fitz + OJ Howard + Gabriel as a possible cheap stack.  

 

2-3 of the podcasts I listen to were mentioning R.Wilson and his price tag as a good option this week.  

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Tried the show down again.  50cents in, $5 out.  Actually forgot to change the LU, so I just had 2 of the same with both QBs in there and Kupp at the mvp spot. 

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9 hours ago, reel_smooth said:

Want to win some money in baseball this weekend? Stack the Braves, especially the SP. The Phillies are just mailing it in at this point. 

The Bears will be playing the 2nd worst pass DEF Sunday; Mitchell Trubisky/Allen Robinson and/or Taylor Gabriel stack for GPP's anybody? I do believe I'll have a little of that. 

I'm using a Bears stack in a FD freeroll.

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Anyone like Josh Allen in GPPs? Weak GB defense, playing from behind, 30-40 yards rushing, most likely Bill to get rushing TD, downfield passer. $5100 on DK.

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3 hours ago, TaosHum said:

Anyone like Josh Allen in GPPs? Weak GB defense, playing from behind, 30-40 yards rushing, most likely Bill to get rushing TD, downfield passer. $5100 on DK.

No.

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Looking at air yards, target share, and how bad the GB D is, I have Kalvin Benjamin written down as a dirt cheap dart, especially since I have been looking at GB stacks all week. :shrug:

Don't have to do much at 3.6K.  

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8 hours ago, TaosHum said:

Anyone like Josh Allen in GPPs? Weak GB defense, playing from behind, 30-40 yards rushing, most likely Bill to get rushing TD, downfield passer. $5100 on DK.

I think it goes without saying that anything can happen any week.  We have to be different somehow if we enter these huge gpps.  

 

That said, I looked at him, but the pricing on QBs and the performance of QBs this year has had me looking elsewhere.  In that same range you have Dalton in a possible shootout and Mayfield with better weapons.  Also, the QB pricing is really narrow and there is value everywhere, so it's not hard to fine the extra 1K for guys like Rivers, Ryan, Watson who I think have more upside in a gpp.    Too many guys I can see slinging it for 300+, that I don't think you need to use a guy like Allen.  

I have probably used worse plays than something like Allen + Benjamin and I have seen weirder things do well in tournaments.  

 

I think different roster construction might be to pay up at QB/TE and/or having 2-3 higher priced WRs in your lineup.  Especially since a couple 3K WRs went off last week, I think people will be tempted to pay up at RB and take those shots at WR again.  

I have one gpp as a placeholder that has Gio/Coleman/Michel at RB and 3 WRs around 7K+ that I am debating on.  

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5 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

That said, I looked at him, but the pricing on QBs and the performance of QBs this year has had me looking elsewhere.  In that same range you have Dalton in a possible shootout and Mayfield with better weapons.  Also, the QB pricing is really narrow and there is value everywhere, so it's not hard to fine the extra 1K for guys like Rivers, Ryan, Watson who I think have more upside in a gpp.    Too many guys I can see slinging it for 300+, that I don't think you need to use a guy like Allen.  

This makes a lot of sense. When you pay down at QB on DK you're not saving so much money that your opening new worlds of possibility for roster construction. I guess I'm just not seeing the breakaway ceiling of many of the more expensive options. Vegas point totals are pretty modest for the main slate. 

I follow the Bills pretty closely so I don't always know if it's "just me"...but Josh Allen strikes me as the type of player who doesn't need to play that well to put up numbers (a la Watson or Newton). I don't really know what his floor or ceiling is with only two data points. He put up 15 points in his first start against the Chargers (ugly game but decent second half) and 28 points against the Vikings on just 22 pass attempts (improbable blow out). Both games had strange game scripts making the situation difficult to read.

Preseason I thought Kelvin would have a massive target share given the lack of talent in the receiving corps. He's been awful: dropping everything and not giving a ton of effort. He's also made a ton of excuses for himself in the media and thrown his former Panthers' QB under the bus. I'd be a little surprised if he finished the season with the team. That said, he's still probably the number one receiving option on the team outside of maybe McCoy.

Given that no one can win 1 on 1 for them, they'll have to scheme guys open (like they did against Minnesota), and it might be hard to predict. I'm a little nervous to put my eggs in any of the Bills receiving baskets.

 

6 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I think different roster construction might be to pay up at QB/TE and/or having 2-3 higher priced WRs in your lineup.  Especially since a couple 3K WRs went off last week, I think people will be tempted to pay up at RB and take those shots at WR again.  

I have one gpp as a placeholder that has Gio/Coleman/Michel at RB and 3 WRs around 7K+ that I am debating on.  

This could be a good way to get differentiation. I like all of those running backs this week.

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1 hour ago, TaosHum said:

This could be a good way to get differentiation. I like all of those running backs this week.

I used those 3 for a game stack and used Ryan, Hooper, Green and also had D.Adams and Fuller as well.  

I have another with a GB stack I think.  

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3 hours ago, TaosHum said:

I like Geronimo Allison a lot this week. I suspect he'll get a lot of non-Tre White coverage.

Same here. Have him in a bunch of lineups. 

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All this talk about Mayfield in the other thread and I figured WTF.  Threw in a couple cheap entries with Baker/Landry/Callaway and ran it back with J.Richard on the cheap.  One LU that also got me Fuller/Gordon/Elliot so I liked that I was still able to get some studs in there too.  

 

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Yep, ####in nuts again.  I had a 2x that scored 195, and barely cashed.  

I had 3 Brady lineups with White and Michel that just got smoked in the afternoon by the Kamara teams.  

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

Yep, ####in nuts again.  I had a 2x that scored 195, and barely cashed.  

I had 3 Brady lineups with White and Michel that just got smoked in the afternoon by the Kamara teams.  

The $5 2x I was in had cashline of 205.18. I scored 191 and finished 233/344.

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56 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

The $5 2x I was in had cashline of 205.18. I scored 191 and finished 233/344.

Was this a SE?  

I was in a $5 2x and it looks like the cash line was about 185.  205 is just nutz.  My LU had 197, so it wouldn't have cashed in yours.  

 

Oh, and I played J.Allen in cash.  :bag:   But it allowed me Zeke, Gordon, Kamara, and Chicago D.  

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3 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Yep, ####in nuts again.  I had a 2x that scored 195, and barely cashed.  

I had 3 Brady lineups with White and Michel that just got smoked in the afternoon by the Kamara teams.  

Same here. Had several lineups with Luck or Ryan, Elliott, Shepard, Jones/Ridley but just wasn't able to break 200. Thanks for nothing Gronk. And my one Trubisky team had Howard too instead of Cohen. Just not enough edge this week.

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On 9/27/2018 at 4:54 PM, Raging weasel said:

Played around with dropping down to cheaper Def and came up with option C which I think is the best

Dalton

Zeke

Kamara

Shephard

Boyd

Callaway

Hooper

Barkley

Dallas

I copied most of your lineup an won about $50. Thank you very very much! :)

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2 hours ago, SaturneParis said:

I copied most of your lineup an won about $50. Thank you very very much! :)

Nice!, What did you change cause I didn't cash anything but a .25er for .60 with it.

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16 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

Nice!, What did you change cause I didn't cash anything but a .25er for .60 with it.

That's what I was thinking when I read your post - I thought you said that you didn't cash with much.   maybe a pivot to Gabriel and/or Burton?

 

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2 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

That's what I was thinking when I read your post - I thought you said that you didn't cash with much.   maybe a pivot to Gabriel and/or Burton?

 

Oops, looks like I switched out Callaway,Boyd and Dallas for Godwin,Galladay and Seat in my $5 contest:bag:

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