Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Sign in to follow this  
Gottabesweet

Altering your lineup after taking a Zero?

Recommended Posts

If you are down do you tend to shoot for the moon with more boom or bust type players or do you keep in your safe floor players? 

Allen owners, are you altering your lineups? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Benching Evans and playing Lindsay.

Cant afford a single digit week from Evans and a tough matchup.

Edited by Bucky86

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you have any players on Saturday? If you don't, and your opponent does, wait until then to make a determination. A lot can happen between now and Sunday.

How many "projected points" are you down? If a lot, you gotta go boom/bust, if not then I'd stick with those safe floors.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I had Allen but he had Hill so I'm considering -8.1 pts in that matchup a win.

Edited by FreeBaGeL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Moonshine said:

Do you have any players on Saturday? If you don't, and your opponent does, wait until then to make a determination. A lot can happen between now and Sunday.

How many "projected points" are you down? If a lot, you gotta go boom/bust, if not then I'd stick with those safe floors.

This.

 

i had Allen n Jackson 

vs the Williams's 

 

i wish i was -8.1

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m up 42.  

Rivers 24.5,  Jackson 17.5,  Allen 0.  

No longer the favorite.  Have Thielen, Gronk, Chubb, Gostikowski, and Min. 

They have:  Brees, Ingram, J Wilson, Julio Jones,  L Miller, V McDonald, Zuerlein, Lions.  (They could sub Drake for Wilson)

Lamar plays Sat afternoon.  Chubb plays Sat night.  

Have OBJ/Shepard I could switch too.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Was thinking about this last night and I'm going to switch some things up.

Down 20.45 with Allen and Butker while he had Mahomes.

Went from a 50/50 to now a 30/70.

Has Roethlisberger going but now likely changing that to Luck.  He has Schuster and Samuels.  Hope the steelers have a poor game.

Had some close selections with RB, White, Ingram, Mack, Martin.  Think I'll go White, Ingram and Martin.

For TE going Vernon Davis over Brate, this is PPR.

No Saturday matches in our lineups.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Had Allen but fortunately dropped Butker for Maher. Have McGuire as my flex but may change him to a higher ceiling player.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

I don't have a choice as my WR corp was destroyed by injuries so I have to enjoy the 0 from Allen & hope the rest of my guys score

Same - was able to piece together 24.5 from Rivers and 17.5 from Jackson but the Allen zero is crushing, we only start 8 players)  3 of my 5 left are a TE,K,D.

I wish last nights game wasn't on a Thursday it's how it goes sometimes.

Two straight years, the Thursday night game knocks out a guy in the fantasy playoffs (Kamara last year)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I might roll out Ridley instead of Kittle - praying for a home run td performance versus the steadiness of Kittle.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It stinks but I'd be careful overthinking it too much.

Last week I was an underdog to begin with, then got 6 PPR points from Fournette on Thursday night, seemingly dooming my chances.

I won by 30.

Edited by Skoo
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Had Allen and Jackson for 16.0 points last night.  Faced Mahomes and Hill for 26.52.  My decision to play Jackson instead of Aaron Jones was about a better floor with similar ceiling.  

The only choices I'd think about would be Aaron Jones for Chris Carson... because it's only a 10 point spread I'm sticking with Carson.   

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have Allen in what looks like a very even matchup so I'm worried but won't alter my current lineup. I can see making changes at the margins -- DST, a call between similar TEs, a call at WR3 between a safe floor and higher ceiling guy -- but at this time of year I'm a believer in plugging in the guys at primary slots who I think are my most talented players and/or the guys that got me here (often the same thing).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Mr. Know-It-All said:

Well I might roll out Ridley instead of Kittle - praying for a home run td performance versus the steadiness of Kittle.

Right, because nothing Kittle has done in the past, oh, seven days indicates that he has any upside. :rolleyes:

  • Like 2
  • Love 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm deciding between Chubb (PPR) and OBJ (5 point bonus and PPR for 50+ TDs)

What sucks is Chubb plays Saturday and OBJ is questionable for Sunday only other option is Shepard.

42 points up with  Thielen, Chubb, Gronk, Gostikowski, Vikings  (Rivers, JJ, Allen)

vs.  Brees, Ingram, Julio, L. Miller, J. Wilson, McDonald, Zuerlein, Lions.

Edited by Gottabesweet

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Bucky86 said:

 

Benching Evans and playing Lindsay.

Cant afford a single digit week from Evans and a tough matchup.

that would be the correct decision whether allen got you zero or 30

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, DAG said:

I have Allen in what looks like a very even matchup so I'm worried but won't alter my current lineup. I can see making changes at the margins -- DST, a call between similar TEs, a call at WR3 between a safe floor and higher ceiling guy -- but at this time of year I'm a believer in plugging in the guys at primary slots who I think are my most talented players and/or the guys that got me here (often the same thing).

I agree.  My guys I'm debating on are all really close in projections.  I'm making some changes.  If I Allen had gotten me 20, I'd have stayed with Roethlisberger.  Oh well, if I lose it will be my fault. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I go with the higher variance plays or try and stack QB-WR/TE combos.  I'm up an anticipated 33 pts (Rivers/Kelce) and am dbating between Ingram and J Wilson in my flex.  My opponent has Chubb/Hopkins going tomorrow so I'll have some more info before the games Sunday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think I can alter it enough.  I had Allen, Hill, Kelce, and Mahommes.  Still have Elliot, Edwards, Drake, Seattle, and Dustin Hopkins.  I also have Stills, Gabriel, Goodwin, and D Thomas but other than Stills none have broken 20 points even one time.  Still has gotten to 30 twice but he's going against the Vikings (as is Drake). Edwards is going against the Bucs but doesn't catch passes and hasn't broken 20 either.  I think his ceiling is about 100 yards and a td which isn't quite 20 points in my league (but I think his floor is 15 against the bucs). 

I may grab Zay Jones.  He's had two games of 20+ points in my league and is going against the Lions.  Humphries would be the one to get but he's going against Baltimore.   C Samuel is facing the Saints but he has yet to crack 20 points.  J Samuels is available but currently the buzz is that Conner might play.  My only player going Saturday is Hopkins. I don't plan on putting D Thomas in). He's got Chubb and Njoku so I i'm going to wait until Sunday morning to decide.  If they have a good games I'll stick with current players.  If not I'll spend the $ on a free agent (pickups in my $50 entry league are $10) and roll with Jones over Drake.  I'll probably stick with Edwards even though Drake has a higher ceiling. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, zftcg said:

Right, because nothing Kittle has done in the past, oh, seven days indicates that he has any upside. :rolleyes:

Strange I don't remember indicating that Kittle does not have any upside, just suggesting a boom/bust player like Ridley could get the nod over a more consistent player like Kittle based on floor/ceiling potential.  Your rolling eyes emoji did however make me look closer at the two and realize they have put up essentially the same numbers in our scoring system which I would not have guessed.  Kittle has spread it out in a much more consistent manner (albeit he did have a monster week against Denver), whereas Ridley has been horrible or great with little in between.   

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Was favored by 20+ and after last night projected to lose by 10 after 28.2 from Mahomes, KAllen, Kelce with McCaffrey, Hopkins, Thielen, Tucker , LA Rams

vs

Brady, Elliot, JGordan, ACooper, Woods, Ertz, Fairburn, Wash.

 

Possible...anything is but not very realistic chances in my opinion

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

I’m up 42.  

Rivers 24.5,  Jackson 17.5,  Allen 0.  

No longer the favorite.  Have Thielen, Gronk, Chubb, Gostikowski, and Min. 

They have:  Brees, Ingram, J Wilson, Julio Jones,  L Miller, V McDonald, Zuerlein, Lions.  (They could sub Drake for Wilson)

Lamar plays Sat afternoon.  Chubb plays Sat night.  

Have OBJ/Shepard I could switch too.  

OBJ is out if that helps you decide

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Mr. Know-It-All said:

Strange I don't remember indicating that Kittle does not have any upside, just suggesting a boom/bust player like Ridley could get the nod over a more consistent player like Kittle based on floor/ceiling potential.  Your rolling eyes emoji did however make me look closer at the two and realize they have put up essentially the same numbers in our scoring system which I would not have guessed.  Kittle has spread it out in a much more consistent manner (albeit he did have a monster week against Denver), whereas Ridley has been horrible or great with little in between.   

I was mostly just busting your chops. It was funny that a guy goes for 210/1 and the following week you're saying someone else might have more HR potential.

The irony is that I came very close to sitting Kittle last week for that exact reason. In fact, if Sanders hadn't torn his Achilles I probably would have started Samuels over him (once Sanders went down, I had to start both).

After the game, it occurred to me that Kittle now has TD receptions of 85 and 82, plus a 70 yarder that was not a TD, but that he cleaned up with a short TD catch on the next play. I'm pretty sure no TE, RB or WR has more than one play of 70+ yards this year (maybe Albert Wilson before he got hurt?) Meanwhile, Kittle also only has two games with less than 50 YFS. So he's provided steadiness and HR potential, which is kind of amazing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For the record, I remain deeply skeptical that reshuffling your lineup after TNF is a good idea. In order for it to make sense, you need to a) be a heavy favorite/underdog, b) be able to correctly identify the steady vs. boom/bust guys, and c) have one of each that you can strategically deploy in a given matchup. Unless all those conditions are met, you're most likely just moving pieces around in an effort to give yourself the illusion of control. 

I think it's something to consider in roster construction (and even then, only as a tiebreaker). So you draft Landry and then, a few rounds later, you're deciding between Fuller and Edelman, and you go Fuller because you already have a safer option. But once the season is underway, your best bet is generally going to be putting out your strongest lineup each week and not overthinking it.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, zftcg said:

For the record, I remain deeply skeptical that reshuffling your lineup after TNF is a good idea. In order for it to make sense, you need to a) be a heavy favorite/underdog, b) be able to correctly identify the steady vs. boom/bust guys, and c) have one of each that you can strategically deploy in a given matchup. Unless all those conditions are met, you're most likely just moving pieces around in an effort to give yourself the illusion of control. 

I think it's something to consider in roster construction (and even then, only as a tiebreaker). So you draft Landry and then, a few rounds later, you're deciding between Fuller and Edelman, and you go Fuller because you already have a safer option. But once the season is underway, your best bet is generally going to be putting out your strongest lineup each week and not overthinking it.

Would disagree. I think this is where the flex position and maybe qb can be good options.

Example. I have a flex spot and debating Foster or Dixon or  a waiver reciever like Sutton.....

To me if I am projected to lose, foster has potential for 100 yards or more receiving and a TD. As well we get bonuses for long TD. His floor is lower as might only get me 1 or 2 catches for 20 or 30 yards. But his ceiling is 25 given he got 21 against Jacksonville and is now their wr1 with Benjamin and Holmes' gone.

Dixon to me is a safe floor in PPR but less upside. I expect about 10-12 carries and 2 catches. Figure about 70 total yards so 9 point floor with TD upside to 15 points.

 

So if I were projected to win 8 go Dixon. Since 8 am projected to lose by 17 after a Soso showing by Kelce, going Foster.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, zftcg said:

I was mostly just busting your chops. It was funny that a guy goes for 210/1 and the following week you're saying someone else might have more HR potential.

The irony is that I came very close to sitting Kittle last week for that exact reason. In fact, if Sanders hadn't torn his Achilles I probably would have started Samuels over him (once Sanders went down, I had to start both).

After the game, it occurred to me that Kittle now has TD receptions of 85 and 82, plus a 70 yarder that was not a TD, but that he cleaned up with a short TD catch on the next play. I'm pretty sure no TE, RB or WR has more than one play of 70+ yards this year (maybe Albert Wilson before he got hurt?) Meanwhile, Kittle also only has two games with less than 50 YFS. So he's provided steadiness and HR potential, which is kind of amazing.

Kittle IS back in my lineup - after I did my analysis I realized that a guaranteed 4 is better than the potential .5  to 2 I get from Ridley on every week except his blowup games.  AND...Ridley's matchup vs Arizona is less appealing (slightly) than Kittle's vs Seattle.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, CanaBuc said:

Would disagree. I think this is where the flex position and maybe qb can be good options.

Example. I have a flex spot and debating Foster or Dixon or  a waiver reciever like Sutton.....

To me if I am projected to lose, foster has potential for 100 yards or more receiving and a TD. As well we get bonuses for long TD. His floor is lower as might only get me 1 or 2 catches for 20 or 30 yards. But his ceiling is 25 given he got 21 against Jacksonville and is now their wr1 with Benjamin and Holmes' gone.

Dixon to me is a safe floor in PPR but less upside. I expect about 10-12 carries and 2 catches. Figure about 70 total yards so 9 point floor with TD upside to 15 points.

 

So if I were projected to win 8 go Dixon. Since 8 am projected to lose by 17 after a Soso showing by Kelce, going Foster.

Obviously, it's your roster so you should do whatever you think is best. I just don't have enough confidence to project guys' stats, much less their ceilings and floors. (That goes double for a guy like Foster; I follow football pretty closely, and I had never heard of him before a few weeks ago.)

If I were faced with a lineup decision like yours, I would probably really on a decidedly less scientific method, like "Don't start the WR whose QB had been posting more rushing yards than passing yards." But mostly, I would just assume that with two unproven commodities like Foster and Dixon, the uncertainty would be very high and my confidence in whatever I picked would be low.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/14/2018 at 8:32 AM, Gottabesweet said:

I'm deciding between Chubb (PPR) and OBJ (5 point bonus and PPR for 50+ TDs)

What sucks is Chubb plays Saturday and OBJ is questionable for Sunday only other option is Shepard.

42 points up with  Thielen, Chubb, Gronk, Gostikowski, Vikings  (Rivers, JJ, Allen)

vs.  Brees, Ingram, Julio, L. Miller, J. Wilson, McDonald, Zuerlein, Lions.

Isn't OBJ out?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm down 42. Guy got 27 out of his freaking kicker and 15 from Chubb.

I have Brees, Gurley, Zeke, Cooks and Kittle, but I'm not feeling real good

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/15/2018 at 7:50 AM, CanaBuc said:

Would disagree. I think this is where the flex position and maybe qb can be good options.

Example. I have a flex spot and debating Foster or Dixon or  a waiver reciever like Sutton.....

To me if I am projected to lose, foster has potential for 100 yards or more receiving and a TD. As well we get bonuses for long TD. His floor is lower as might only get me 1 or 2 catches for 20 or 30 yards. But his ceiling is 25 given he got 21 against Jacksonville and is now their wr1 with Benjamin and Holmes' gone.

I hope you stuck to your plan and didn't listen to my dumb advice. :shrug:

Seriously, I still think spending too much time on floors and ceilings is a fool's errand, because we know less than we think. But, not knowing much about Foster, I just assumed he was the latest flavor of the month in Buffalo (remember a couple weeks ago, when everyone was blowing their FAAB for Zay Jones?) Reading about him some more, it sounds like there is some real talent there. With Boyd potentially out, I may need him next week.

On the other hand, if I make it to the final I'll probably be the favorite, so maybe I should target Dixon for his higher floor ... :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/15/2018 at 8:59 AM, Mr. Know-It-All said:

Kittle IS back in my lineup - after I did my analysis I realized that a guaranteed 4 is better than the potential .5  to 2 I get from Ridley on every week except his blowup games.  AND...Ridley's matchup vs Arizona is less appealing (slightly) than Kittle's vs Seattle.

Turns out choosing between Kittle and Ridley this week was like choosing between a punch to the face or a kick to the groin.  Kittle got 1.5 and Ridley got 2.5.  Thankfully I should still win because my opponent had worse luck than I did (Barkley and Martin did not score much).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Mr. Know-It-All said:

Turns out choosing between Kittle and Ridley this week was like choosing between a punch to the face or a kick to the groin.  Kittle got 1.5 and Ridley got 2.5.  Thankfully I should still win because my opponent had worse luck than I did (Barkley and Martin did not score much).

What kind of scoring do you have where 3/51 gets you 1.5 and 5/42 gets you 2.5?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, zftcg said:

What kind of scoring do you have where 3/51 gets you 1.5 and 5/42 gets you 2.5?

I hate it - but it is a 26 year running league with a bunch of friends.  RB/WR get .5 ppr, 1 pt at 60, 1 pt at 80, 1 pt at 100 and 1 pt each addl 15 yards.  QB get 3 pt at 250 combined, +1 each addl 25 yds and -1 per int. K get 3 for 0-39, 4 for 40-49, 5 for 40-55 and 6 for 56+.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.