What's your #1 non-player specific piece of advice/takeaway for drafts? (1 Viewer)

[Scoresman]

I'm not quite sure if this thread will work out or not but humor me.

We all have our own principles/rules we follow when drafting. Things like "Never draft a Cleveland Brown" or "No QBs until round 4". I want to know some examples of these that you guys take into your drafts. This should be non-player specific. So nothing like "Draft Travis Kelce at all costs". These are principles you can go into every season with.

I think my #1 is the following:

Draft as many players as possible, if not exclusively, from really good offenses. Getting burned by bad offenses is a lesson I've learned over the years. Every year we get the Cam Akers/James Conner/Rachaad Whites of the world who get hyped because they are very talented players, but because their offenses suck, the opportunities are more often than not limited. When you step back and realize that teams like the Cardinals, Bucs, and Texans this year have implied per game team totals of 17 points, that should make you step back and question taking some of these players at their ADP. Picture yourself on Monday night and you're looking at your weekly score and see that you need your last player to score you 14 points to catch up to your opponent. It's way more fun to watch a guy who's team is not going to go 3 and out every offensive series.

 

[Chaka]

Have fun. It's a hobby, for the vast majority, take a deep breath and enjoy it.

 

[Wrigley]

I usually drink way too much, and enjoy hanging out with my friends(something I only get to do a couple times a year now).

Don't get me wrong, I take the draft very seriously.....but the season isn't won on draft day.

There is no team/player I will not draft, you never know they might be what puts you over the top.

Have fun

 

[Uncle Leo]

Take the players you want and not worry about grades from experts. Yes, that means taking Mahomes in the first if you think someone will take him in the second prior to your turn. I get all the VBD arguments. However I’m talking about folks of Mahomes’ caliber and not Daniel Jones.

 

[RenegadeRoy]

Know your league. For your long standing leagues, knowing how people draft is more valuable than any ADP chart. This is even more important in auction than in snake, but it applies to both.

 

[JohnnyU]

From a dynasty perspective I try to balance youth and win now players. I never want to be out of it and never want to have an old team. Some will say the worst thing you can do is be the #7 team in your league and I agree if that team is old. Another thing I don't recommend is trading young stud potential players just for the sake of having more draft picks. Those types of players are constantly drafting early in drafts. You know the types, they draft Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, JT, Hall, etc. and when the next draft is near they dump them for a boat load of picks. Then the next year rinse and repeat. I don't advise doing this. What's the point of drafting players like that to build your dynasty team with if you turn around and trade them the next year? Some will argue but...but...but...look at the VALUE I got in return. I say BS. Some players value drafts more than winning. They can't think more than 3 minutes into the future. Also, a lot of players just trade for the sake of trading because they are addicted to it. You can ruin a team with one drunken trading session that took years to build.

 

[Deamon]

I'm not quite sure if this thread will work out or not but humor me.

We all have our own principles/rules we follow when drafting. Things like "Never draft a Cleveland Brown" or "No QBs until round 4". I want to know some examples of these that you guys take into your drafts. This should be non-player specific. So nothing like "Draft Travis Kelce at all costs". These are principles you can go into every season with.

Nah, this is actually a fantastic thread idea.

Here's a few of mine:

1. Don't wait on QB this year. If you don't have one of the top 7, you're at a massive disadvantage. Ideally I want to be up to pick at the end of the tiers (I want to be on the clock AFTER 2 of the big 3 QBs go, or AFTER 3 of the tier 2 QBs go). Don't get sucked into seeing incredible RB/WR value there, snag that QB.

2. Be at the start or the end of positional runs. Being in the middle of it sucks. If you can start a positional run, that's amazing. If you can withstand waiting it out, then don't panic, just wait it out.

3. As always, never ever ever ever take a K before the final round.

4. If you have 2 players you like very similarly and you're up, take the higher ADP player (this one is a bit obvious)

5. Don't obsess over "stacking" or over "don't take 2 WRs on the same team". Take the best player there.

 

[tangfoot]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Never draft a player named Mike Williams

If you're expecting to be active on the waiver wire all season, ignore bye weeks during your draft. Just take the best players.

Defense can wait until at least round 10. Kicker is your last pick, unless you can get away without drafting one at all.

Specific advice for this season: leaving a draft with TRich and Tua isn't a bad thing because it means you could stock up at other positions earlier in your draft.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Don't wait on QB this year. If you don't have one of the top 7, you're at a massive disadvantage.

To piggyback on this, my plan* is to wait for the Big 3 (Hurts, Mahomes and Allen) to go off the board and wait until the next QB comes off (Burrow, Jackson, Hebert, Fields) and then grab the next one after that.

* plans like this are always subject to change depending on what happens.

 

[Scoresman]

Know your league. For your long standing leagues, knowing how people draft is more valuable than any ADP chart. This is even more important in auction than in snake, but it applies to both.

Love this one. Especially for auction leagues as you say. I've been keeping a spreadsheet that has historical bids for my auction league going back 10+ years, so I have a lot of data on tendencies. I've learned the following:

- My league consistently spends less than it should at RB and more than it should at WR. This is based on historical actual prices vs VORP based auction budgets.
- We're a bay area league. Key Raider and 49er players who get nominated in the middle rounds are way overvalued. In the past, this has included Kittle, Aiyuk, Jacobs, Carr, and Waller.
- Our league doesn't spend enough for Travis Kelce. I know this is player specific, but he is such an outlier in so many ways. He has consistently gone for $20-24 ($100 cap league), but VBD says he is worth upwards of $30. He's been on my team the last 3 years and I expect him to be again this year.
- The league also spends way less than it should on QB, especially the top ones. Money in the league is skewed towards spending more on the mid level guys and not enough on the top guys.

With this knowledge, I fully expect to have a team consisting of Kelce, a top QB, a top RB and cheaper values at WR and other spots.

I also use excel's Solver to generate what the optimum team is using expected prices and projections, and it basically spits out a team like I describe above.

 

[RenegadeRoy]

3. As always, never ever ever ever take a K before the final round.

To piggyback off of this, find out what your league's drafting rules are. If you do not need to leave the draft with a "complete" team, then maybe don't draft a K or DEF at all. This is more important the earlier in the preseason you are drafting as you can load up on more lottery tickets as camps move along.

 

[zamboni]

Draft as many players as possible, if not exclusively, from really good offenses. Getting burned by bad offenses is a lesson I've learned over the years. Every year we get the Cam Akers/James Conner/Rachaad Whites of the world who get hyped because they are very talented players, but because their offenses suck, the opportunities are more often than not limited.

While I fully agree you should draft players from good offenses, don't make the assumption and fall into the group think trap that certain offenses will be really poor. Seattle last year is a perfect example of one that so many said to stay away from - now they are viewed as one of the best offenses. Long story short, I try to draft talent rather than situation, although admittedly talent evaluation is not easy unless you're a professional scout.

As a corollary to the above, I try not to weigh strength of schedule too much, especially when people think of the playoff schedule. No one knows who the good/bad defenses or teams will be, especially by the time you get to week 13/14 or so.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Love this type of thread. Great job.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Only draft RBs that you think can punch it in from the 3 yard line.

 

[Chaka]

Only draft RBs that you think can punch it in from the 3 yard line.

Got it. Jamaal Williams at 1.1 it is!!!

Bartender....!!!

 

[Scoresman]

Draft as many players as possible, if not exclusively, from really good offenses. Getting burned by bad offenses is a lesson I've learned over the years. Every year we get the Cam Akers/James Conner/Rachaad Whites of the world who get hyped because they are very talented players, but because their offenses suck, the opportunities are more often than not limited.

While I fully agree you should draft players from good offenses, don't make the assumption and fall into the groupthink trap that certain offenses will be really poor. Seattle last year is a perfect example of one that so many said to stay away from - now they are viewed as one of the best offenses. Long story short, I try to draft talent rather than situation, although admittedly talent evaluation is not easy unless you're a professional scout.

As a corollary to the above, I try not to weigh strength of schedule too much, especially when people think of the playoff schedule. No one knows who the good/bad defenses will be, especially by the time you get to week 13/14 or so.

For sure. But I think there are teams where you can reasonably assume they will be cellar dwellers. TB and AZ come to mind. I guess Houston could surprise. I can see Pittsburg being a Seattle like team this year. I guess I might reword my statement above to "Don't draft players on really bad offenses"

 

[Weebs210]

Never settle for players you don't want. When deciding between a floor player that's left over in the current tier always skip to the next tier and take the exciting player.

 

[zamboni]

Draft as many players as possible, if not exclusively, from really good offenses. Getting burned by bad offenses is a lesson I've learned over the years. Every year we get the Cam Akers/James Conner/Rachaad Whites of the world who get hyped because they are very talented players, but because their offenses suck, the opportunities are more often than not limited.

While I fully agree you should draft players from good offenses, don't make the assumption and fall into the groupthink trap that certain offenses will be really poor. Seattle last year is a perfect example of one that so many said to stay away from - now they are viewed as one of the best offenses. Long story short, I try to draft talent rather than situation, although admittedly talent evaluation is not easy unless you're a professional scout.

As a corollary to the above, I try not to weigh strength of schedule too much, especially when people think of the playoff schedule. No one knows who the good/bad defenses will be, especially by the time you get to week 13/14 or so.

For sure. But I think there are teams where you can reasonably assume they will be cellar dwellers. TB and AZ come to mind. I guess Houston could surprise. I can see Pittsburg being a Seattle like team this year. I guess I might reword my statement above to "Don't draft players on really bad offenses"

Understood, but my point was that we don't know who the really bad offenses will be. Arizona and TB may be, but maybe they'll be better than expected. It can make sense to zig when others are zagging (within reasonable risk, of course).

 

[Scoresman]

Draft as many players as possible, if not exclusively, from really good offenses. Getting burned by bad offenses is a lesson I've learned over the years. Every year we get the Cam Akers/James Conner/Rachaad Whites of the world who get hyped because they are very talented players, but because their offenses suck, the opportunities are more often than not limited.

While I fully agree you should draft players from good offenses, don't make the assumption and fall into the groupthink trap that certain offenses will be really poor. Seattle last year is a perfect example of one that so many said to stay away from - now they are viewed as one of the best offenses. Long story short, I try to draft talent rather than situation, although admittedly talent evaluation is not easy unless you're a professional scout.

As a corollary to the above, I try not to weigh strength of schedule too much, especially when people think of the playoff schedule. No one knows who the good/bad defenses will be, especially by the time you get to week 13/14 or so.

For sure. But I think there are teams where you can reasonably assume they will be cellar dwellers. TB and AZ come to mind. I guess Houston could surprise. I can see Pittsburg being a Seattle like team this year. I guess I might reword my statement above to "Don't draft players on really bad offenses"

Understood, but my point was that we don't know who the really bad offenses will be. Arizona and TB may be, but maybe they'll be better than expected. It can make sense to zig when others are zagging (within reasonable risk, of course).

I dont know. Part of the reason I follow that rule is so that I can watch and root for players who are on good offenses. I end up watching the games my players are on and it's just more fun to watch and root for players on good teams/offenses than watching teams trade 3 and outs.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Draft as many players as possible, if not exclusively, from really good offenses. Getting burned by bad offenses is a lesson I've learned over the years. Every year we get the Cam Akers/James Conner/Rachaad Whites of the world who get hyped because they are very talented players, but because their offenses suck, the opportunities are more often than not limited.

While I fully agree you should draft players from good offenses, don't make the assumption and fall into the groupthink trap that certain offenses will be really poor. Seattle last year is a perfect example of one that so many said to stay away from - now they are viewed as one of the best offenses. Long story short, I try to draft talent rather than situation, although admittedly talent evaluation is not easy unless you're a professional scout.

As a corollary to the above, I try not to weigh strength of schedule too much, especially when people think of the playoff schedule. No one knows who the good/bad defenses will be, especially by the time you get to week 13/14 or so.

For sure. But I think there are teams where you can reasonably assume they will be cellar dwellers. TB and AZ come to mind. I guess Houston could surprise. I can see Pittsburg being a Seattle like team this year. I guess I might reword my statement above to "Don't draft players on really bad offenses"

Understood, but my point was that we don't know who the really bad offenses will be. Arizona and TB may be, but maybe they'll be better than expected. It can make sense to zig when others are zagging (within reasonable risk, of course).

I dont know. Part of the reason I follow that rule is so that I can watch and root for players who are on good offenses. I end up watching the games my players are on and it's just more fun to watch and root for players on good teams/offenses than watching teams trade 3 and outs.

Mahomes and the Chiefs
Hurts and the Igglz
Burrow and the Bengals
Herbert and the Bolts
Tua when's he's upright and the Phins
Allen and the Bills

Yes., it's more fun to watch the better offenses and watch quality QB play a good chunk of the time

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Never stop taking running backs.

If you look at your roster & think, “I have these 3 studs. I can relax”, I want you to reach back and slap yourself in the face, with great enthusiasm.

Then I want you to march up to the draft board (or stretch your best clicky finger) and draft another running back.

Because you can never stop taking running backs. They are always worth hoarding & you can trade them for things later.

Or your guys will get hurt or bust and you’ll be glad you have them.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Specific advice for this season: leaving a draft with TRich and Tua isn't a bad thing because it means you could stock up at other positions earlier in your draft.

Yea - like Mike Williams

 

[Jayded]

Always trust your gut. Yes, inform via sources, but make the call yourself. Would you otherwise just check the auto-draft button in your league's software? I would think not.

Also, yes seasons can be largely won and lost in the draft but just as many can be made in free agency. One bad pick doesn't have to kill your season if you also know up front you'll work the wire as well.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

My favorite piece of advice, because it happened to me yesterday in a live draft:

Do not let 1 mistake or near miss frustrate you to the point that you compound your mistake/miss with another one.

Stay focused. Pivot to plan B.

Example 1: I typically wait on IDP players. Yesterday I was feeling good about my RB-WR-WR-WR-LJax-RB start.

I opted to take my #1 LB because this league usually hits IDP in the 5th and here it was the 7th. I followed it up with my top DL on the board…who turned out to be a LB on my league site. A HUGE mistake. He’s literally my LB4

But while the temptation was there to take Wilkins or some other top DL after the short 8-9 turn, I continued with my draft plan and went RB in round 9, seeing a much bigger drop-off.

I ended up getting Wilkins anyway the next round and made up for Parsons (LB) with IDP value picks later on.

In the past I’ve compounded the mistake by getting tunnel vision on the position, which has a ripple effect the rest of the draft.

Example 2: missed ‘Mouth by 1 pick. I was sure he’d make it back because every team had a TE, and it’s not TE-P. But there it was - the 12th round and a team took a 2nd TE (before their 4th RB or 3rd WR). Crazy stuff happens. I was stunned. It almost threw off my entire draft. But again - I took a deep breath, and went to my next highest rated player. It was almost a relief because I have a list of deep TEs and ended up getting a pair I liked. If I’d grabbed the next TE after ‘Mouth, it woulda been a multi-tier drop at TE, and I would have missed the value on the position I did take.

So yeah - keep calm and draft on. Don’t let 1 mistake snowball into 2 mistakes or more. And if ya get sniped, just keep on plugging away at the best value on the board, and let that s*** go, because clear eyes full hearts, all that. Eye on the prize.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

Study ADP and have a plan around bunches of players you like and know which onesie players you like and hope fall to you.

Kelce or Andrews fall to you beyond where you thought they would? Or NOT and where you like TEs. Similar at QB. The RBs and WRs are always a bit more liquid. My best player last year was I guy that I swore was over rated but he dropped a round and I grabbed him.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Kelce or Andrews fall to you beyond where you thought they would? Or NOT and where you like TEs. Similar at QB. The RBs and WRs are always a bit more liquid. My best player last year was I guy that I swore was over rated but he dropped a round and I grabbed him.

I almost never take a QB inside 8 rounds in my home IDP league. People reach for them so much it negates their value.

When a top 5 QB fell to me at 5.05 it was a no-brainer, despite being not something I’d ordinarily do. And my team is way way better for it.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

one more: know your scoring system.

There may be no better piece of advice.

If you don’t spend 15 mins studying the scoring system of every league format you’re in before your draft, you may as well just donate the $.

I refresh my memory every year because my 3 dynasty squads are all a bit different. It does make a big difference.

 

[TripItUp]

Understand your leagues tendencies and execute mocks based on those tendencies.

Prepare for multiple position sequences in mocks.

 

[Scoresman]

one more: know your scoring system.

There may be no better piece of advice.

If you don’t spend 15 mins studying the scoring system of every league format you’re in before your draft, you may as well just donate the $.

I refresh my memory every year because my 3 dynasty squads are all a bit different. It does make a big difference.

I'd take it a step further. Your cheatsheet/software/whatever needs to take this into account first and foremost. There are too many tools, draft dominator/beersheets/etc. that do this that you have no excuse to not have something that incorporates your scoring system.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'd take it a step further. Your cheatsheet/software/whatever needs to take this into account first and foremost. There are too many tools, draft dominator/beersheets/etc. that do this that you have no excuse to not have something that incorporates your scoring system.

score points for FBG draft dominator - it synchs up with league scoring.

 

[Chaka]

Use the draft dominator. You pay for it for a reason.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

There are too many tools, draft dominator/beersheets/etc.

I'll see you this, and raise you another:
- when using drafting tools, check their settings.

The FBG DD for example has sliders for VBD, projections, need at position, etc. The default settings might not be how you prefer to draft, so when viewing the lists, they could be sorted in a way that goes against your preferences.

By taking a peek under the hood at how the engine is configured, you might want to shift some of the tuning for more personalized results. As they say, your mileage may vary.

 

[Loipz]

Never stop taking running backs.

If you look at your roster & think, “I have these 3 studs. I can relax”, I want you to reach back and slap yourself in the face, with great enthusiasm.

Then I want you to march up to the draft board (or stretch your best clicky finger) and draft another running back.

Because you can never stop taking running backs. They are always worth hoarding & you can trade them for things later.

Or your guys will get hurt or bust and you’ll be glad you have them.

I always leave the draft with a bunch and league mates will take notice and say dang have enough RBs? I smile to myself and say haha and do the same thing every year. Works great

 

[JohnnyU]

Don't drink too much during the draft if it's not a slow draft.

 

[Chaka]

Definitely start drinking early and don't stop until someone takes a kicker.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I smile to myself and say haha and do the same thing every year. Works great

every
single
year

Oh, you didn't take your handcuff? Don't mind if I do.

Oh, you missed that sleeper RB so you could take a 3rd QB? Don't mind if I do.

One day they're gonna have to call 1-800-GOT JUNK to haul all these dusty petrified RBs out of my living room. "I think Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis is under that stack of newspapers over there, thanks!"

 

[BobbyLayne]

UPSIDE wins championships

Littered throughout the draft are floor plays and upside guys right next to each other in ADP ranks. Every championship team has 2-3 breakout players who massively outperformed their draft capital.

But we see it all the time, folks take a RB2/WR3 who are known commodities - who will be good players, play to their draft capital - but will never win the week for you because they have no upside.

You need to inject volatility into your lineup once you've built your foundation in the first few rounds. Take some big swings; some of them will be misses, but you'll also find surprising gems. Often it's not the one you were expecting.

 

[Ben & Jerry's]

If you can't draft what you need, draft someone capable of trading for your need.

 

[Judge Smails]

Start position runs - don’t finish them.

 

[-jb-]

Take good player news out of camp with a grain of salt.

Pay attention to bad player news out of camp very closely.

Unless it has something to do with stripes on a football. Ignore that one.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

UPSIDE wins championships

I like it, and I’m glad you said to build the core 1st, because really it’s “balance wins championships”

Back in my youth, I was the upside chaser. If there was a breakout candidate, I was in like Flynn.

I’d end up with a roster full of broken dreams at the end of the year.

So while I’m all for chasing upside, you definitely need some locks, too. But largely I agree - you have to have some upside plays.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If you can't draft what you need, draft someone capable of trading for your need.

BPA, baby. I’d rather draft a RB2 than a WR3, because I can probably deal that RB for a WR2 during the season.

 

[FFWhiskey]

Don't become a slave to ADP. Stay flexible. Let the draft come to you. You can do 1,000 mock drafts but it will never account for the human element.


Last year the 1.01 was Jonathan Taylor. Najee Harris was going 1.08. Joe Mixon was going 1.09.


Wrap your head around that. Last year people were drafting Joe Mixon and Najee Harris as the best players on their teams. Now they're 3rd rounders.


Michael Pittman (3.09) and Kyle Pitts (3.08) were 3rd round picks last year. Do you know who else was a 3rd rounder? AJ Brown (3.07). Imagine drawing the short straw on that one.




What I'm trying to say is this year's first rounders are next year's 3rd rounders and this year's 3rd rounders are next year's first rounders. Up will be down and down will be up, so if you draft a player a little early than his ADP suggests... know that by about Week 4 our entire understanding of the league will be drastically different than we think it is right now so it might not end up being a stretch at all.

 

[BassNBrew]

UPSIDE wins championships

Littered throughout the draft are floor plays and upside guys right next to each other in ADP ranks. Every championship team has 2-3 breakout players who massively outperformed their draft capital.

But we see it all the time, folks take a RB2/WR3 who are known commodities - who will be good players, play to their draft capital - but will never win the week for you because they have no upside.

You need to inject volatility into your lineup once you've built your foundation in the first few rounds. Take some big swings; some of them will be misses, but you'll also find surprising gems. Often it's not the one you were expecting.

UPSIDE wins championships

I like it, and I’m glad you said to build the core 1st, because really it’s “balance wins championships”

Back in my youth, I was the upside chaser. If there was a breakout candidate, I was in like Flynn.

I’d end up with a roster full of broken dreams at the end of the year.

So while I’m all for chasing upside, you definitely need some locks, too. But largely I agree - you have to have some upside plays.

Consistency wins championships (talking 12 team leagues, not contests) in the long run.

As an example, I just drafted a team comprised of Jefferson, Hurts, Andrews, and Jones. That's roughly 75 points a week. Historically 125 pts per week gets a team to the playoffs in this league (25% make it). Kicker and defense add another 17 a week. I have 3 slots left and need 33 points a weeks. Give me three steady 5-60 guys and I'll see you in the finals.

National contest, I'm flipping the script and loading up on Gabe Davis and his clones.

 

[FFWhiskey]

UPSIDE wins championships

Littered throughout the draft are floor plays and upside guys right next to each other in ADP ranks. Every championship team has 2-3 breakout players who massively outperformed their draft capital.

But we see it all the time, folks take a RB2/WR3 who are known commodities - who will be good players, play to their draft capital - but will never win the week for you because they have no upside.

You need to inject volatility into your lineup once you've built your foundation in the first few rounds. Take some big swings; some of them will be misses, but you'll also find surprising gems. Often it's not the one you were expecting.

UPSIDE wins championships

I like it, and I’m glad you said to build the core 1st, because really it’s “balance wins championships”

Back in my youth, I was the upside chaser. If there was a breakout candidate, I was in like Flynn.

I’d end up with a roster full of broken dreams at the end of the year.

So while I’m all for chasing upside, you definitely need some locks, too. But largely I agree - you have to have some upside plays.

Consistency wins championships (talking 12 team leagues, not contests) in the long run.

As an example, I just drafted a team comprised of Jefferson, Hurts, Andrews, and Jones. That's roughly 75 points a week. Historically 125 pts per week gets a team to the playoffs in this league (25% make it). Kicker and defense add another 17 a week. I have 3 slots left and need 33 points a weeks. Give me three steady 5-60 guys and I'll see you in the finals.

National contest, I'm flipping the script and loading up on Gabe Davis and his clones.

This guy gets it.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This guy gets it.

It’s definitely context specific.

In my IDP I fill my entire starting lineup with reliability. Because like the man said, consistency wins championships.

I always figure I have to get x-average out of my 16 starters (IDP) to win enough games to make the ‘offs.

But for high stakes leagues I definitely take more upside risks.

 

[Soulfly3]

always remember you're playing pretend GM.

 

[titusbramble]

In auctions, raise Brian Robinson for $1 with your second option (the first, of course, being reserved for the best kicker available in leagues that still use them), and hope that someone sees B. Robinson on mobile etc, thinks it's Bijan and overpays as a result. Worked a treat with the fake Adrian Peterson back in the day