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***Official Joe Biden Campaign Thread (3 Viewers)

jm192 said:
Betting odds are influenced by bets.  If people bet too heavily to one side, they move the lines to correct the scales.  

Betting odds are a way to make sure that Vegas always keeps it's shirt (and gets a new one).
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#therake

 
jm192 said:
Biden was a senator for 36 years and a VP for 8 years.  Biden has been in a high ranking office for FOUR decades.  

I take the phrase "more of the same" to mean the same public officials that have been there for decades.

Biden is as "more of the same" as it gets.
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No, you see, the Iraq War was good actually 🥴

 
The General said:
Bernie voted for many crime bills and bills that are viewed as favoring strict sentencing and strengthening law enforcement. issues get complicated when bills are getting written. That's why Bernie never does it.

He didn't bother to show up for this vote they could have used him.

Biden isn't perfect, none of these people are. 

Infinitely better than Trump.  
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I'm one of Bernie's biggest cheerleaders but him missing that vote was REALLY upsetting. He better have had a damn good reason.

 
timschochet said:
Betting odds, as I understand them, are based on public perception. The public may be more for Biden but they believe, by a slight majority, that Trump will be the winner. So long as that is the case Trump will be the betting favorite. I think public opinion will slowly but surely come around to believe that Biden will win and when that happens the odds will move sharply in his favor. We’ll see if I’m right. 
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It's based on dollar volume.  They want an equal amount of money bet on both sides so that they make their middle.

It's possible, for example to have 47% of the bets placed, but 55% of the total money on one side,  and the other side be 53%/45%.   So these betting odds can be just as off as the polls.

In what you stated, the odds for Biden will go in his favor when more money is placed on him.   One person putting up a $10mil could wing the odds.

 
POTUS RADIO this morning said Police and law enforcement are turning away from Biden.  This could have an big impact on swaying the independents.  The more Biden talks the more he puts his foot in his mouth.   Sad that have to choose between 2 buffoons'.

 
Da Guru said:
POTUS RADIO this morning said Police and law enforcement are turning away from Biden.  This could have an big impact on swaying the independents.  The more Biden talks the more he puts his foot in his mouth.   Sad that have to choose between 2 buffoons'.
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In the current climate...not sure losing some of the support of police and law enforcement is that hurtful to him.

Also, the more he talked this week...the better it got...the speech he gave the other day was quite good.

 
Da Guru said:
POTUS RADIO this morning said Police and law enforcement are turning away from Biden.  This could have an big impact on swaying the independents.  The more Biden talks the more he puts his foot in his mouth.   Sad that have to choose between 2 buffoons'.
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Trump is losing military votes. Law enforcement votes GOP generally. I am not sure how big that loss would be to Biden

 
Encumbrance said:
Then we'll know it's not about the driver of the car that hit his wife. 
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I don’t know what to tell you. You’re raising an incident from x years ago involving something tragic personally affecting Biden. I won’t let him off the hook for it. But in terms of decency and the constant disgrace on display daily in the WH, yes I think there’s a large difference.

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
I don’t know what to tell you. You’re raising an incident from x years ago involving something tragic personally affecting Biden. I won’t let him off the hook for it. But in terms of decency and the constant disgrace on display daily, yes I think there’s a large difference.
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You're talking about decorum and not decency then. I'd be the first to agree that President Trump doesn't have a presidential demeanor. He's self-aggrandizing, narcissistic, aggrieved, you name the bad quality. Biden, on the other hand, is a cold-blooded opportunist and liar. That's only decorum, because cold-blooded opportunistic liars are indecent and disgraceful.  

 
Encumbrance said:
You're talking about decorum and not decency then. I'd be the first to agree that President Trump doesn't have a presidential demeanor. He's self-aggrandizing, narcissistic, aggrieved, you name the bad quality. Biden, on the other hand, is a cold-blooded opportunist and liar. That's only decorum, because cold-blooded opportunistic liars are indecent and disgraceful.  
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Ok we differ then. Personally even what you have here - as you put it - narcissism, in the clinical sense is a serious emotional deficiency that doesn’t belong anywhere near power. At value points like this there isn’t any room to argue.

 
Encumbrance said:
You're talking about decorum and not decency then. I'd be the first to agree that President Trump doesn't have a presidential demeanor. He's self-aggrandizing, narcissistic, aggrieved, you name the bad quality. Biden, on the other hand, is a cold-blooded opportunist and liar. That's only decorum, because cold-blooded opportunistic liars are indecent and disgraceful.  
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Trump is nearing, if he hasn't already surpassed, 20,000 lies and false claims. He flip flops on issues regularly because he doesn't take responsibility for anything that goes wrong, and while Biden is by no means perfect, he's a much better alternative than Trump could ever be.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Ok we differ then. Personally even what you have here - as you put it - narcissism, in the clinical sense is a serious emotional deficiency that doesn’t belong anywhere near power. At value points like this there isn’t any room to argue.
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Oh, there's plenty of room. Somebody tried to capitalize politically off of the memory of their dead wife. That's definitely on par -- at least -- with anything Trump has done with respects to the value of decency and decorum, no matter how much you hate Trump. Trump may indeed be corrupt, but he's at least as decent and decorous as Sleepy Joe.  

 
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Encumbrance said:
Oh, there's plenty of room. Somebody tried to capitalize politically off of the memory of their dead wife. That's definitely on par -- at least -- with anything Trump has done, no matter how much you hate Trump.  
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Before we do a comp. How much political capital do you think Biden gained off that comment?

 
Encumbrance said:
The utile efficacy of it is not my concern. The act of it is.  
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I understand. And for me that decorum you mentioned, the actual outward exercise of presidential power is significant. I personally do not want a clown constantly flaunting the honor of the office. But getting past that there are a thousand maybe more instances of such disgrace on Trump's part, and he has manufactured considerable political capital from it. - Right now on Earth 2.0 in the Trump thread there is a Trump supporter promoting a video where the man says that Trump may be an [expletive], and he may be a bigot, but heck he opposes globalism, which, yaknow, per the video means the people who run the banks and the movies. - And look at our streets right now. So yeah the idea that Biden can do something, any single positive, decent thing in this Floyd event to me is worthwhile and IMO if he can do that as president it would be important. I believe Trump is completely incapable of that. - I'm not trying to convince you of anything, it's just how I feel. 

 
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This is one possibility however that might make the CNN numbers accurate: if the millennials vote with the same energy and passion that they’re currently showing in the protests, they could swamp the system. And that’s possible though they never have. 
It also suddenly gave me a “what if”: suppose George Floyd had been murdered in February and we had the protests back then. Would Bernie Sanders have won the Democratic primary? I think it’s quite possible. 

 
I will be clear.  I don't like a lot of Trump's rhetoric.  He is, at the least unpolished, and non-PC, which I actually like......some of the #### that comes out of his mouth, I cannot reconcile......that said, there has been a witch hunt for him from the get-go...the media does a great job of making him look like a monster.....he scares the career politicians because he calls them out....again, I like that to a point....on to my point

I have one question.....

How would Joe Biden and the left expect to get us out of this quagmire?  I have very little confidence in that prospect......Trump on the other hand runs the country like a business.....say what you want about the guy, but he does not come from a place of weakness in the world economy.

 
timschochet said:
This is one possibility however that might make the CNN numbers accurate: if the millennials vote with the same energy and passion that they’re currently showing in the protests, they could swamp the system. And that’s possible though they never have. 
It also suddenly gave me a “what if”: suppose George Floyd had been murdered in February and we had the protests back then. Would Bernie Sanders have won the Democratic primary? I think it’s quite possible. 
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The youths are protesting against police brutality, overseen in many parts by Dem mayors & Dem governors.  It doesn't really translate to support for Biden.  I wonder how comparable this is to the antiwar protests against George Bush, when they ran a boring centrist against an extremely unpopular president in 2004.  

Perhaps Trump is so loathesome in the opposite direction they show up for Biden anyway, but I doubt it.  By the time the election rolls around, they're going to understand Biden's record on criminal justice loud and clear.  He's not fooling anyone under 40.  

 
Manster said:
I will be clear.  I don't like a lot of Trump's rhetoric.  He is, at the least unpolished, and non-PC, which I actually like......some of the #### that comes out of his mouth, I cannot reconcile......that said, there has been a witch hunt for him from the get-go...the media does a great job of making him look like a monster.....he scares the career politicians because he calls them out....again, I like that to a point....on to my point

I have one question.....

How would Joe Biden and the left expect to get us out of this quagmire?  I have very little confidence in that prospect......Trump on the other hand runs the country like a business.....say what you want about the guy, but he does not come from a place of weakness in the world economy.
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We just need a few more tax cuts for high earners.

 
Millenial turnout was pretty crappy for the primaries but at record highs for the '18 midterms. I don't know what to make of that. We could speculate, however, that the '18 turnout was a direct action against Republicans in general and Trump in particular and that picking among Democratic candidates didn't arouse equal energy. 

If young voters and their 30 point margin for Joe come out in November, though, it's all over.

 
I think we're F'ed either way honestly......we have a corrupt system and a new generation that hates the government, but also wants government to take their guns, but give them total security......we've been too fat and happy for too long

 
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Manster said:
I will be clear.  I don't like a lot of Trump's rhetoric.  He is, at the least unpolished, and non-PC, which I actually like......some of the #### that comes out of his mouth, I cannot reconcile......that said, there has been a witch hunt for him from the get-go...the media does a great job of making him look like a monster.....he scares the career politicians because he calls them out....again, I like that to a point....on to my point

I have one question.....

How would Joe Biden and the left expect to get us out of this quagmire?  I have very little confidence in that prospect......Trump on the other hand runs the country like a business.....say what you want about the guy, but he does not come from a place of weakness in the world economy.
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He does not run it like a business.  Maybe one of the ones he bankrupted.  However...Biden laid out in his speech last week what he would do to move forward...and did so quite well.  The country can't just stiff contractors for things...run things like a business is such an odd thing people want with government.  THey simply can't be run like a business.  Business and government are not run the same...

Im not a huge fan of Biden...preferred several other candidates...but compared to Trump, he is light years ahead of him.

I don't give a crap about someone being PC or not...its about being civilized and not a complete (well, words I can't say or Id get a time out from here).  A witch hunt?  I disagree...he has brought on the scrutiny based on his own words and actions.  

 
Manster said:
I think we're F'ed either way honestly......we have a corrupt system and a new generation that hates the government, but also wants government to take their guns, but give them total security......we've been too far and happy for too long
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Huh?

 
sho nuff said:
Huh?
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Millennial libs.....want gun control, but also want the gubment to give them an endless safety net......my point being that these kids are being programmed to believe they are owed something and are willing to give up rights for security.......I will not raise my children to rely on the gubment.

 
Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report pointed out today that, while Biden's numbers are improving nationally, they are still lower than the national averages in the battleground states. My nightmare scenario could still happen: Biden wins the popular vote by 10 million and Trump wins Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by a combined 13 votes and takes the EC.

Rachel Bitecofer makes note that we shouldn't make too much of the recent gains made by Biden because lots can happen in five months. Witness how much closer things were five months ago. To be fair, Joe hadn't wrapped up the nomination five months ago. If he's up by these numbers in September, it might be safe to say that Donald is toast.

Rumors circulating in the political observer world that a fairly startling Georgia poll is about to drop.

 
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