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2020 Spring/Summer Severe Weather (1 Viewer)

Bunch of warnings popping up throughout the area.  Looks like the storms might be training, which is something I didn't hear much about.  The thought was that these storms would move more than the previous storms we've seen the past couple of weeks.  Good news is they are moving.  Bad news is they are training over the same areas.

 
Small cell out ahead of the line here at work. POURING!  And some pretty good lightning strikes that flickered our lights a couple of times. 

 
Tomorrow could end up being a doosy for this area.  ENHANCED risk already predicted.  Could see some tornadoes out of this system.  Looks like there could be some storms roll through early before making way for the main event.  As with all of these type of setups, it will be important to see how quickly clearing happens during the morning and midday timeframe.  The more fuel (sun and daytime heating) the better chance these things have to produce.

Looking at early models and soundings, if you are south of I-78, that's going to be the area to watch.  I do think the tornado threat will be more west of my location, but that doesn't mean they can't/won't happen here or further east.  

Be ready for tomorrow.  

SEVERE RISK

FLOOD RISK

 
Not much change in the SPC's prediction for tomorrow.  Still in the ENHANCED category.

Since the introduction of the ENHANCED cataegory back in 2014, we've had 3 days of ENHANCED in 2015, 2016 and 2017.  In 2018 we had 2 days.  So far, in 2019, this will be the 6th day.  As I said back in the beginning of this season, "This year is setting up to be a very active year."

 
Finally got a break from the thunderstorms, but we have a severe heat advisory here today and tomorrow... heat indexes could approach 115+ :eek:  Hovering around 110 currently. With our humidity, I'd liken walking outside in this weather to taking a hot, wet towel and covering your face with it. 

 
Flash Flood Watches up for tomorrow.  Again, there will be a lot of rain with these storms.  And even though it might not seem it, the ground is still fairly saturated in this area.  So drainage will be slow.

 
Overnight, severe weather shifted way south.  DC seems to be the hotspot today.  Our area dropped from ENHANCED to MARGINAL.  That's a significant change in just one update.  But I think it's warranted.  While the severe threat is off of our area, the flood threat remains.  

 
Central IL is the hotspot for today.  Looks like mostly wind, but could be a nice line.  I don't think a derecho, but still could be a lot of wind damage.

 
Mid Atlantic gets in the action today.  SLIGHT risk for my area and north.

I saw DC got hammered by winds yesterday.  And I also saw a couple weeks back, Colorado beat their record of largest hail stone ever.  Which made me want to look up what the largest hailstone in the US was.  Turns out it was over 11 inches in diameter in SD!  That's VOLLEYBALL sized hail!!!  I can't even imagine what that's like to see falling from the sky.

 
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Reactions: Ned
Could see a watch box go up soon.  Or maybe two.  Wouldn't be surprised if the Mid-Atlantic gets a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and New England gets a Tornado Watch.  

 
Went with the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for New England.  We'll see if the Mid-Atlantic gets a box.  Timing would be more for the early evening time period, so plenty of time.  Right now, nothing out there, but the atmosphere is ripe.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Went with the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for New England.  We'll see if the Mid-Atlantic gets a box.  Timing would be more for the early evening time period, so plenty of time.  Right now, nothing out there, but the atmosphere is ripe.
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There's the one for the Mid Atlantic.  There's a nice cell near Pottstown right now that has the potential to drop some decent hail.  It was trying to rotate a little and a hook echo was forming off the bottom, but that looks to have faded.  Still a pretty impressive cell going through that area right now.

 
Tomorrow's high in Philly is supposed to be 78 degrees.  That would be the 5th day in a row of high temps under 80 degrees.  Last time that happened in August in Philly was 12 years ago.

 
New England in the crosshairs this afternoon.  May see some down my way, too.  But New England should see some decent storms.

 
Today was forecast originally in the MARGINAL range and when I looked at it this morning it looked weak at that.  But I see the latest update put SE PA in the SLIGHT category and there's a mesoscale discussion about a possible watch going up.  Radar already looking like things are firing up.  Should be interesting.  A pretty good looking line up near Allentown right now.

 
Heat wave is supposed to break for us tomorrow - but man its been ####### hot here for late September, early October.

 
Sinn Fein said:
Heat wave is supposed to break for us tomorrow - but man its been ####### hot here for late September, early October.
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Not sure where "here" is, but here in Philly, we've hit the 90's in October 4 times before this season and everyone of those years, we've had very cold winters.  No direct correlation, but something to watch for this winter.

 
Bankrupt utility PG&E is shutting off power to 800,000 California households tonight to reduce risk of their poorly maintained transformers causing more wildfires.

 
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Eephus said:
Bankrupt utility PG&E is shutting off power to 800,000 California households tonight to reduce risk of their poorly maintained transformers causing more wildfires.
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Funny and sad. Napa, Sonoma and Marin counties are a go. Some counties are closing schools just in case. I've never had my power off for more than a couple hours. I don't anticipate days like up north. Lots of good persian food my aunt made me could go to waste. Found a great site to guide you on what foods need to be tossed and what you can keep. The magic time seems to be 4 hours max.

https://www.foodsafety.gov/food-safety-charts/food-safety-during-power-outage

 
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I don't know if thousands of portable generators and candles reduces overall risk but it transfers liability away from PG&E.

 
Going to have to finally turn on the furnace--calling for a 60+ temperature decree change in a 24 hour period coming up here and our first snow of the season. 

Changed out the furnace filters and got the snow tires on today. We won't get anything to speak of as far as accumulating snow, but all the out of state people that have moved to Colorado will lose their minds and be wrecking into everything once a few flakes fall. 

 
Pge should compensate affected people for their loss of food, wages, etc. 

 
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The Caldecott Tunnel is a 4.5 mile long tunnel that handles 160,000 vehicles per day in the East Bay.   It's shutting down for the duration of the PG&E outage because there's no backup power for air exchange and lighting. 

 
GroveDiesel said:
That’s insane. How long are they saying this will be?
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It going to be rolling north to south, but then general time span I've seen on the news is around 24-36 hours (leaning towards the higher end of the timing) with some talk of "2-days).  Blackouts have already begun.  Here is the PG& E Outage Map.  I am in a hotel in Westlake Village for the next 3-4 months and we'll like get shut off here too by the local Edison Utility.  

 
Our power went off last night sometime after 1:00 am (Sonoma Valley). Sonoma, town of, is dark as well though it looks like a few stores have generators running to keep some lights on.  Smaller wineries throughout Napa/Sonoma who aren’t able to afford generators large enough to power the entire facility are gonna face some challenges if this blackout goes more than three days. Winds expected to kick up this afternoon and continue through Thursday afternoon, with gusts at elevation to hit 50 mph plus. 

Two years to the day of the Tubbs Fire. Weird. 

 
I swear it felt like Y2K from 7:59pm to 8:00pm for the phase 2 pge shutdown. Felt like armageddon out there getting gas and supplies. Not at all common around here.

So far, still have power. It'll go down, just a waiting game now.  🙄

 
Looks like there could be a significant wind/storm event tomorrow in the Mid Atlantic and New England.  Unfortunately, timing looks to be right around the hours trick or treaters would be out.  I imagine a lot of communities are going to be rescheduling.  These will be the type of severe thunderstorms that end up not having any thunder in the storms.

 
SE PA upgraded to an ENHANCED risk for this afternoon/evening.  This would be the latest SE PA has ever seen an ENHANCED risk.  Latest before this was August 13th.... of this year.  Before that, July 25th of 2016.

Of course, it's important to point out that the ENHANCED category only came to be since October 22, 2014.  But still.

Wind is the primary threat.  Possibly a small tornado or two.  And this may be one of those crazy Severe Thunderstorms where there is no actual thunder or lightning.  Always a little confusing to people.

 
Tornado Watch up for most of PA.  Stops right at my county.  So Chester is on the edge.  Lancaster is included.

 
I know it's January, but considering it's going to be near 70 degrees up here in SE PA, it's not surprising there's a good chance for severe weather in the Southeast.  Mainly E TX and LA.  

These have the potential to be bad due to the clashing cold and warm air.  

 
Weather guys around here have already tagged late Friday afternoon and a very severe event here in central MS.  Could be in the middle of the night.  Those are never good.  

 
jb1020 said:
Weather guys around here have already tagged late Friday afternoon and a very severe event here in central MS.  Could be in the middle of the night.  Those are never good.  
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Yes, for some reason in my post I didn't write the day.  The day is Friday, like you said.  Not sure how I omitted that. 

 
jb1020 said:
Weather guys around here have already tagged late Friday afternoon and a very severe event here in central MS.  Could be in the middle of the night.  Those are never good.  
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Also, I'm kind of all over the place and just realized where you are.  So let me clear up my horrible mess I've laid down.  :lol:

Friday will affect E TX and LA.  The threat moves into your area of MS Saturday.  Depending on how fast/slow this moves and where you are located, it could be Friday night/Saturday morning.  But timing will be better known probably tomorrow.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Also, I'm kind of all over the place and just realized where you are.  So let me clear up my horrible mess I've laid down.  :lol:

Friday will affect E TX and LA.  The threat moves into your area of MS Saturday.  Depending on how fast/slow this moves and where you are located, it could be Friday night/Saturday morning.  But timing will be better known probably tomorrow.
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Its all good...wasn't trying to correct you or anything.  I just ring in when I can.  The older I get the more I pay attention to this stuff.  

 
jb1020 said:
Its all good...wasn't trying to correct you or anything.  I just ring in when I can.  The older I get the more I pay attention to this stuff.  
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No.  I know.  I was being serious.  I tried to post that update but was missing a lot of important information.  I welcomed your additions. 

And it's important to note, like you said, these storms could stay severe into the overnight hours.  A lot of times storms will die down when the sun goes down, but these don't look like they'll weaken overnight.  Which means leave your volume on in case a tornado warning is issued while you're sleeping.  Stay safe, GB. 

 
Dangerous next two days for the South East.  If you are near the TX, OK, AR, LA intersection, today could get scary bad.  Stay safe.

 
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