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Stock Market under Trump (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sinn Fein
- Start date
Sideshow Bob
Footballguy
Nonesense. We can just make them more negative. If negative rates are good, and the President of the United States seems to think they are, then negativer rates must be better.
Henry Ford
Footballguy
I would imagine there are other investors for whom this is a “last straw” sign to sell some investments.I actually think the market wanted more and why we are down.
It’s a sick puppy
NREC34
Footballguy
Yep. And If mom and pop investors aren’t out by now idk what it’s going take as far as signs go.
But hey some guy named Gopher something or the other has a good return over some time frame he picked.
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
Sideshow Bob
Footballguy
Henry Ford
Footballguy
Dow holding up nicely. Only dropped about 125 points at the announcement. That’s a good sign for it to hold steady a while.
Sideshow Bob
Footballguy
I expect a face-saving end to the trade war. There will be a bump then. Then an election that will damn us no matter the winner. I intend to be heavier cash between A and B.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
The Commish
Footballguy
I remember the days where it was a given that the markets would react favorably to rate decreases....seriously.....
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
KCitons
Footballguy
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Sideshow Bob
Footballguy
The closer it gets to the election with no end to the trade war, the more cash I'll likely be inclined to have on the side. But I'm also not a big believer in trying to time things. The equities I want to hold long-term I'll likely still be holding. It's the fringe stuff that will go.
It'll be interesting to see how sanity and stability balance with hostility towards wall street.
Sand
Footballguy
The Fed follows the bond market. Even the Fed can't fight the prevailing winds. I agree it isn't good historically, but I don't think the Fed could have just closed their eyes to the global bond situation.
We seem to be 1:1 for good and bad news. The housing numbers have perked up, the manufacturing number was way above expectations. OTOH the interest rate action is horrid.
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Making money tighter than it should be today so that you are able to cut the rate in the future makes no sense
Henry Ford
Footballguy
I love you, man, but it’s like talking economic policy with Little Orphan Annie sometimes. I envy your optimism and wish I had it.
Henry Ford
Footballguy
Depends on what you mean by “should.” Yeah, the economy has some bad things going on and therefore we need to cut rates.
But those things are happening because of some terrible economic policies and are indicative of real trouble starting. Those “shouldn’t” be happening. And my point is that the reason this is happening is that we aren’t in some spectacular economic position right now as Republicans are saying.
Yeah, the fed needs to make this cut. But that’s a very bad sign.
Completely right on the first point.
What is going on in the money market right now is very very concerning.
I'm using should in the Wicksellian sense here. Certainly is not ideal that the Fed has to accommodate stupid policy from Trump, but that is the job.
Clearly very big stresses in the dollar funding markets...its the first time in years I have missed working the repo/fed funds desk.
Gopher State
Footballguy
Dow finished up again market is doing very wellI actually think the market wanted more and why we are down.
It’s a sick puppy
Henry Ford
Footballguy
It finished up 36 on the day of a rate cut.Dow finished up again market is doing very well
Sand
Footballguy
As I said, when I look at all this data input I try to default to optimism. The markets rise 70% of the time. If I'm wrong (happens all the time) at least those odds are in my favor.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Oh Henry. What an awful candy bar that was.
Henry Ford
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
Sorry Henry, the correct guess was already built in. I guess that's what all those down days were a few weeks ago.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Actually, I made my comment not on Henry pointing out the market only slightly increased on a day the Fed lowered rates but on the above comment that they had to do it based on terrible economic policies. Time will tell if the trade war will prevail but one thing is for certain and that is the Chinese have been taking advantage of us for years. At least Trump is attempting to correct this. Policies of lower taxes, less regulations have been home runs for the stock market.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Obama tried as well...Trump pulled us out of that effort and again made things worse where he didn't need to.
At least he is attempting? Should we give him a participation trophy? This isn't YMCA 5 year old soccer...there is no at least he tried. Especially when he did unnecessary things. His means of trying with China have been bad for the country. And he didn't have to do that. He has gambled and thus far lost bad. He may get that deal, but everyone not already bowing down to the man knows it will be small concessions touted as the greatest thing ever and take years for some to recover from the lost business and higher prices.
There was a chasm of things that could be done between negotiation and all out trade war that is hurting people in this country.
The Commish
Footballguy
Tend to agree here though I don't lay this completely at the feet of the Chinese. In those instances where they said, "To be in our market, you have to do X" and the company agreed to X, they don't get to complain after the fact. Spying, hacking, hijacking protected intellectual property is on them and needs to be addressed.
This is akin to saying, "hey, at least he's trying to put out the fire" while throwing gasoline onto the fire. For as ####ty as a deal TPP was in terms of what would be required for this country to give up, the general principle and approach at a 10,000 foot level is light years ahead of where we're at now and he took us out of it. This is where I'd nicely ask him to stop ####### helping please. By every measure he used to frame the China issue we are worse off today than we were before he decided to "help".
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Of course, that is the nature of the trade war. Short term pain for the hopes of long term gain. We won't know if this was a good deal for awhile. I was against the trade war at firstvand now I am thinking it could work out well and hoping for the best.
Henry Ford
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
Curious what you think the characteristics of a "good deal" are. Mine include:
1. Legislation in the Chinese government specifically forbidding the IP theft and pirating of protected property.
2. Process to litigate shady dealings and IP theft.
Anything beyond that, in the one on one relationship with China, is a failure as it does nothing to address the problems both you and I acknowledge exist.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Truthfully I did research the TPP to have much of an opinion on it. If Obama was trying to strengthen the U.S. in these regards I would have supported it. I have read that the TPP was not good for U.S. jobs but again I do not know enough about it.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Sideshow Bob
Footballguy
Something like shuffling funds from SPY to BRACX is one thing. I'm not selling $500 basis GOOGL, which I might want to still own 10 years from now, to try to make a few bucks on a dip.
Sideshow Bob
Footballguy
It's a lot easier to look rich when you're borrowing a #### ton of money to do it.
I am not familiar with Chinese law - at all - but I would be surprised if both of these points are not already covered under existing Chinese law.
As I understand the bigger concern - it is not IP "theft" as much as it is requiring American companies to turnover IP as a contractual condition to doing business in China. Quite frankly, that is a business decision for American companies to make. It is a little disingenuous to move production to China for cost savings, and then complain that the contracts require the American companies to turn over IP. Either negotiate better contracts - or do business elsewhere.
This is not to say actual IP theft is not an issue - I suspect is it a separate issue, but that it comes down more on enforcement than it does in requiring laws.
The Commish
Footballguy
Then they are doing a ##### job of enforcing it otherwise we wouldn't have the complaints, right?
To the topic, I agree 100% and I have little sympathy for those actively making the decision. To the "size" of the concern, I've felt this has been presented as the lesser problem of the two. If this is indeed the larger concern, then our response is more woefully off the mark than I thought. If this is the "problem" we are trying to address in this tariff nonsense then I don't know what to say other than we need to fix our own #### before meddling in the #### of others. By this I mean, the message to our businesses should be exactly what you say above. "If you don't like this as a requirement, go elsewhere...but don't complain about having to do it when you agree to do it"As I understand the bigger concern - it is not IP "theft" as much as it is requiring American companies to turnover IP as a contractual condition to doing business in China. Quite frankly, that is a business decision for American companies to make. It is a little disingenuous to move production to China for cost savings, and then complain that the contracts require the American companies to turn over IP. Either negotiate better contracts - or do business elsewhere.
msommer
Footballguy
They are.
It would seem a bit odd to think that starting a trade war was the right tool to get the Chinese judiciary (/government) to enforce existing rules to the detriment of their domestic companies
The Commish
Footballguy
I'm honestly shocked this is even in their set of laws. But on top of that, it's as confusing as #### to everyone trying to understand when Trump decides to measure our "winning" by the trade deficit with them...which, by the way, has only increased on his watch. It's baffling really.
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Henry Ford
Footballguy
The purpose of TPP was building a coalition to economically isolate China unless it is willing to join the larger group’s rules.
msommer
Footballguy
Many developing countries adopt first world legislation and then fail to execute and enforce. Which obviously provides ample opportunity for corruption because the rules are rigid, the enforcement of said rules, somewhat malleable
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
I did exactly this a couple of weeks ago but only trimmed 1/3.
ETA part of it because I think there will be an opportunity to buy back lower the other to raise funds. Been hit with over 100k in medical bills the last 2.5 years. FML
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Sideshow Bob
Footballguy
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
Oh, I agree. I have some AAPL bought at $16 that I don't want to cash in. If I needed to hedge stuff like that I'd buy some SH and go about it that way. Nice thing about going that way is I'd likely have some capital losses for taxes one way or the other.
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