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Two quick Dem Polls (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sinn Fein
- Start date
badmojo1006
Footballguy
Kamala not Katherine
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
I have no trouble voting for Warren (not my cuppa, but a committed public servant) - it's supporting a candidacy very likely to be de-railed by her campaigning incompetence that keeps me from advancing her cause
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
I prefer any in poll two to any in poll one.
I suspect that many people have a similar preference, and also the opposite preference - they would prefer any in Poll 1 to those in poll 2.
The difference in the polls is the generational gap - and I think it will play a part in how people select their candidate. Some will prefer Age, some will prefer Youth. But, then, once you make that choice - I think how it plays out will be similar to what the early returns show here.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
Hmmm. Interesting. I'm right in the middle of the generation gap (Gen X), which might explain why I prefer one from each column (Biden and Buttigieg) and also why one from each column is on my "Do Not Draft" list (Bernie and Beto).
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
I agree. I like her a lot but her and Buttigieg are 2 of the short list that I think would lose to Trump.
[scooter]
Footballguy
I think Buttigieg can beat Trump because he has the ability to A) criticize Trump without insulting him, B) remain calm and composed, and B) inspire "hope and change".
I think it will be too easy for Trump to portray Warren as "Hillary 2.0", thus energizing his base.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Unfortunately I think we have a large enough group that would always vote against a gay man that he would lose.
Mile High
Footballguy
[scooter]
Footballguy
I agree to a certain extent, but I also think that demographic is already "baked in" to Trump's numbers. And I don't think Trump will be able to inspire unmotivated conservatives to vote against Pete in the same way that he inspired unmotivated conservatives to vote against Hillary.
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Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
I recently asked a 23 year old who she and her friends were liking early and was surprised at the response of Biden, Warren for that age group.
I didn't vote in the poll since I'm unaffiliated, but would take Biden,Harris.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
^ I feel like O'Rourke's fifteen minutes have passed, but perhaps he can re-ignite. But I think there will be more enthusiasm to come out and vote with a more diverse ticket. I am personally not a fan of identity politics, but others are.
When I say "generation gap" I don't mean it in the normal sense - I am talking more about the preference for leadership.
I think old people will vote for a younger leader, and I think young people will vote for an older leader - but I think that will be one of the underlying issues in the campaign - whether the collective wants a younger candidate, or a tried and true greyhead. Its not clear yet.
For me personally, I think the older generation has had their shot, and I see no evidence that they know what to do for the future (they have not done so well with the past), so I am willing to look for a fresher face to bring new ideas to the table.
It seems inconceivable to me that the Dem ticket will not include a woman - either at the top, or as VP.
And, whether or not that seems "forced" is not really an issue for me - because there are a number of highly qualified female candidates for either position. So, I don't think we are sacrificing anything to promote a female candidate.*
*I will reserve judgement on the choice - but there are enough qualified candidates that I assume the choice will be properly vetted.
Politically - can he risk that?
I am not sure where he goes from here - I don't know what he did before running for office. But, can he afford to lose another Senate election and still be a viable political candidate in the future?
Yeah - I meant before that. I thought he stepped down from the House to run for Senate, and has been travelling and hanging out with the family since the 2018 election. I assume he can't viably go back to the House - and take an incumbent's seat - so he would have to run for some other office or go back to whatever he did before he was in office.
So, politically, can you lose two senate elections and still be a viable politician - or will the two losses hurt his chances in other elections. Or, can he make this run for president, eventually bow out, but then still be considered a hot prospect for the Dems in a future election - Governor or something?
It just seems risky to lose twice - albeit in a Red state.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
Mario Kart
Footballguy
Kamala Harris as Pres with Pete Buttigieg as VP. As of right now, I'd be happy with this ticket.
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
Not sure I see what so interesting about Harris.
I had to eliminate considerations of electability to make the first poll close. If I forget electability and just pick the person I’d most trust to be a good President, Biden and Warren are roughly tied for me. (I picked Warren in the poll, but I could see myself going back and forth on that one.)
Buttigieg is the easy choice in the second poll (and overall).
Buttigieg is the easy choice in the second poll (and overall).
AAABatteries
Footballguy
If Pete becomes the next President it’s about the only silver lining that could come out of the current disaster in the WH.
formerfourdigit
Footballguy
You've expressed this same sentiment in a few different threads but FWIW this is the exact opposite of what is happening right now.wikkidpissah said:
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
wait til she's challenged in debate - that's when the short-circuiting robot who lost debates to Republican spokesmodel Scott Brown kicks in
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
I voted Bernie/Butt
The dream would be Bernie/Tulsi. This would just be entertaining to see the legendary smear campaign against them by both left and right MSM.
The dream would be Bernie/Tulsi. This would just be entertaining to see the legendary smear campaign against them by both left and right MSM.
I have been wholly unimpressed with her yet. I voted Warren and Pete. After this horror show, I’m looking for straight up intelligence.
I like Pete well enough but this is not his time. I’d feel much better, say, eight years from now when he is in his mid-forties. His sexual orientation shouldn’t matter but it will in 2020. I have a hunch it’ll matter less in ‘28.
And Bernie’s time was 2016. The Dem machine kept the man down. His message was unique then, now it’s practically mainstream.Things are looking grim for Bernie.
Yeah - I think that is one of the talking points from this poll. I have said since early this year that Bernie really does not have a path to the nomination - and I think this demonstrates one of his problems.Things are looking grim for Bernie.
I think, overall, Bernie has a fiercely loyal, but relatively small, base. He was at, or near 45-50% 4 years ago - when it was just him against Clinton - and he lost most of that support when other candidates got in the race with similar messages. And, make no mistake, Bernie has changed a lot of the Dems message since 2015. So, he should get credit for pushing many of these issues to the forefront.
But, fast-forward to 2019 - and Bernie still needs to be at, or near, 50% to get the nomination - he simply does not have the DNC support to win on a 2nd or 3rd ballot. With Elizabeth Warren gaining momentum - if she can maintain that momentum through the first couple of debates, I think she will start to siphon off a few loose Sanders supporter - and I think she will start to gain real traction among women - who are obviously under-represented in our poll.
Bernie is left with a path to nomination that requires the voters to choose seniority over new(er) blood, and that both Biden and Warren falter on the campaign trail. I don't think he can count on either happening.
On the younger side - if voters opt for a changing of the guard - I think O'Rourke is in a very tough spot. (I think Harris is ultimately under-represented in our poll, and that she and Buttigieg would be a much closer race if it was down to the 2 of them).
There is certainly still an option for someone to come from off the pace, and pull off a surprise - but its not going to be easy. After the July debates, the criteria will require 3 polls at 2% - and right now, I think we are looking at 6-8 candidates who can pull that off. So, once fall hits - if a candidate did not make a move in the first 2 debates, they are essentially done - and financing will dry up. (I think for some candidates - that funding may dry up sooner than that.)
KiddLattimer
Footballguy
This is my dream ticket too, they're easily my 1/2 and nobody else is particularly close. I thought Warren was a good 3rd but the more she goes on her "I'm not Bernie" campaign and dances to the center the less I like her. If they roll out another centrist ****bag that looks like they're ready to get us into a few more wars I'll just vote Green again
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Yes and no - some of his message has been picked up but I don't see as many people hammering home the point about the 1% - wealth inequality still isn't nearly the issue it should be, mainly because essentially anyone who runs is part of that 1% (including Bernie).
But I'm ok with Bernie not being the nominee - if he can continue to help influence future policy then he's done a great service to the country, IMO.
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