Draft analysis for a fantasy league (1 Viewer)

I'm in a long running keeper league and am always looking for a competitive edge.  I had a thought, what if you could better predict what positions your league mates would target in specific rounds during the draft?

Has anyone ever done this or figured out a way to chart or statistically analyze your fellow league mates drafting habits?

I have roughly 8 years of old drafts on spread sheets which should be ample data for this project.

I started logging data last night but am a little fuzzy on the best approach or formulas to make this useful.  Any thoughts or help would be appreciated!

Cam Cakes said:

I'm in a long running keeper league and am always looking for a competitive edge.  I had a thought, what if you could better predict what positions your league mates would target in specific rounds during the draft?

Has anyone ever done this or figured out a way to chart or statistically analyze your fellow league mates drafting habits?

I have roughly 8 years of old drafts on spread sheets which should be ample data for this project.

I started logging data last night but am a little fuzzy on the best approach or formulas to make this useful.  Any thoughts or help would be appreciated!

Click to expand...

I think there is too much variation from draft class to drat class to do this quantitatively, even with 8 years of data.  That’s a pretty small sample.  To get something like this you’d really want to see data from, say 100 mfl10’s they’d entered in the same year.

That said, it’s very easy and quite useful to pick up on general trends.  Look for instance at things like:

1) Is there a particular owner who always takes a QB early?  Look at what rounds the top 3 qbs go off the board in each year, and if the same owner is involved most of the time, he is likely to draft an early QB again.

2) Look at the number of rbs vs wrs taken in the first 5 picks for each owner, and at the order.  You may find some trends, although draft position is likely to have a major impact on this, so take conclusions with caution.  A similar look, less affected by draft position,  would be to see which position the owner goes to first after their starting lineup has been filled, and at which position goes deeper on their bench.  I tend to always leave my drafts with more bench rbs than wrs, for instance.  It would be a visible trend.

Hope that points you in a good direction for starters.

Cam Cakes said:

I'm in a long running keeper league and am always looking for a competitive edge.  I had a thought, what if you could better predict what positions your league mates would target in specific rounds during the draft?

Has anyone ever done this or figured out a way to chart or statistically analyze your fellow league mates drafting habits?

I have roughly 8 years of old drafts on spread sheets which should be ample data for this project.

I started logging data last night but am a little fuzzy on the best approach or formulas to make this useful.  Any thoughts or help would be appreciated!

Click to expand...

I’m in the same position with my main league and have done this.  As it’s an auction league I’ve found it to be extremely useful in predicting peoples tendencies, particularly with amounts spent on a specific position group or a persons tier spend habits.  I just created my own excel spreadsheet.   

 Know your enemy. Or in the case of a fantasy draft,know your opponent. You don't need a lot of analytics if you've been involved with the same group of drafters for 8 years.

I was in a league for 15 years with guys from work,after a few years you get to know their tendencies. Who takes the first QB every year,who loads up on a certain position early.

Who hated the Cowboys and wouldn't draft from that team no matter the circumstances. Analytics are fine,knowing your opponents is more reliable.

show up early to the draft, give them a few beers. That seems to be the easiest way to figure out who they will take

Cam Cakes said:

I'm in a long running keeper league and am always looking for a competitive edge.  I had a thought, what if you could better predict what positions your league mates would target in specific rounds during the draft?

Has anyone ever done this or figured out a way to chart or statistically analyze your fellow league mates drafting habits?

I have roughly 8 years of old drafts on spread sheets which should be ample data for this project.

I started logging data last night but am a little fuzzy on the best approach or formulas to make this useful.  Any thoughts or help would be appreciated!

Click to expand...

I 100% do this- there is a lot of info to gleen. 10 team league. 

1. Me

2. goes bpa but skews toward need, will panic pick on a run, will take a qb in any rd. Favors older proven players over poised for breakout.

3. Savvy fbg that uses any and every resource he can, uses dominator, will load up on rb/wr and wait on a qb, will target a top te if it fits where he drafts. 

4. Good player who seems to have the same targets as me year to year. Waits on qb, uses extra bench spots on rb/wr. Tough to draft around.

5.Wildcard. The “Taco” if you will, who will draft an injured guy, will take a random player from his home team if he doesn’t know what to do late in the draft, even if it’s the backup or 3rd string qb. Oh, and will go on to win the league several times.

6. Fairly new replacement guy, but it’s a hometown league so we all know each other well enough, not random internet replacement. His only league, doing it for fun mostly.

7. Early qb, will take the “best” defense by rd 10, Fills his starters out before moving on to bench. Knowledgeable but goes against the grain in that respect.

8. Will draft RBs/wrs early and often but will make some questionable reaches and then double down by ignoring that position  because he’s so sure of that pick. 

9. Smack talker that will say “I was going to take him” after every pick, then says “hope he tears his acl” and not feel bad for actually wishing that. 

10. Homer. Will prioritize his home team a full 1-2 rounds ahead of where they should be. Strategy is to get his favorite players over any discernible “wait for a qb” or “zero rb.”