Scoresman
Footballguy
This year, I really took a deep dive into league history for my snake league draft. This gave me a TON of useful info to take into my draft next week. I think knowledge like this is just as useful if not more useful than nitpicking your player rankings.
I downloaded drafts from the last two years, I would've gone further back if the data was available. I then put each pick side by side with that player's ADP, took a delta between ADP and actual pick and started making charts.
Here's what the raw data looks like .
https://i.imgur.com/M3CNeJz.png
For the charts below, any bar below 0 on the horizontal axis represents a pick taken before ADP, anything above 0 is a pick made after ADP. As you go left to right on the charts, it represents the rounds of the draft. Leftmost are the early rounds, rightmost the later rounds.
QB chart
https://i.imgur.com/WXOQfTj.png
RB chart
https://i.imgur.com/9SDc7od.png
WR chart
https://i.imgur.com/tf6gpQO.png
Takeaways
I learned a lot about my league's tendencies from the data above.
- QBs are almost universally taken before ADP. This is useful because it most likely means I'll be waiting to take a QB because I won't take guys like Mahomes or Allen earlier than I should. But it also tells me that I will have to pull the trigger on my QB before their ADP or I may end up with a starting QB of Kenny Pickett or Baker Mayfield. I seem to remember this happening last year, where I was eyeing Kirk Cousins and was going to take him at ADP, but some guy drafted him early as his backup to Mahomes.
- RBs in the first few rounds tend to go at ADP. No surprise. It gets less predictable the later in the draft you go. In the later rounds, as people are filling out their roster with their late round sleepers/handcuffs, it makes sense that a lot of guys will go before their ADP.
- WRs after the first round tend to go later than ADP, representing potential value at the position, allowing me to be ok waiting to take WRs in general.
I downloaded drafts from the last two years, I would've gone further back if the data was available. I then put each pick side by side with that player's ADP, took a delta between ADP and actual pick and started making charts.
Here's what the raw data looks like .
https://i.imgur.com/M3CNeJz.png
For the charts below, any bar below 0 on the horizontal axis represents a pick taken before ADP, anything above 0 is a pick made after ADP. As you go left to right on the charts, it represents the rounds of the draft. Leftmost are the early rounds, rightmost the later rounds.
QB chart
https://i.imgur.com/WXOQfTj.png
RB chart
https://i.imgur.com/9SDc7od.png
WR chart
https://i.imgur.com/tf6gpQO.png
Takeaways
I learned a lot about my league's tendencies from the data above.
- QBs are almost universally taken before ADP. This is useful because it most likely means I'll be waiting to take a QB because I won't take guys like Mahomes or Allen earlier than I should. But it also tells me that I will have to pull the trigger on my QB before their ADP or I may end up with a starting QB of Kenny Pickett or Baker Mayfield. I seem to remember this happening last year, where I was eyeing Kirk Cousins and was going to take him at ADP, but some guy drafted him early as his backup to Mahomes.
- RBs in the first few rounds tend to go at ADP. No surprise. It gets less predictable the later in the draft you go. In the later rounds, as people are filling out their roster with their late round sleepers/handcuffs, it makes sense that a lot of guys will go before their ADP.
- WRs after the first round tend to go later than ADP, representing potential value at the position, allowing me to be ok waiting to take WRs in general.
