Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
I have been thinking for a few months about the global geopolitical order, largely through the lens of how the Trump administration is handling foreign affairs and what the grand strategy is (if there is one). What is the U.S. doing globally that make sense and what things do not? I am interested in this primarily in a practical geopolitical strategic sense, not necessarily what is right or wrong morally. Probably one of the most pressing issues prompting me to consider this is our actions and orientation toward China and whether they are good or bad.
I think the first thing to think about what is the landscape is, who are the players and what are the actions that are really shaping the future of the world.
The Major Players?
Reading a book review a few weeks ago of The Empire and Five Kings, the author, Bernard-Henri Levy states (paraphrased): The U.S. has given up its role in maintaining order around the world. Into that vacuum have stepped China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey (the 5 kings).
The first three make sense to me and were key players that I was initially thinking about. I recognize the role of Iran and Turkey, but am less sure about the total impact on the world right now. I suppose I understand that those countries are increasing their attempts to influence events and spaces in the world, though I have been skeptical of their real impact. Iran’s recent aggression on tankers and planes, as well as recent stories about their attempts to use methods of social media manipulation in America, perhaps indicate that they are more serious than I thought.
For Turkey, I know that Erdogan has been consolidating power over time, put out the hit on Gulen, and generally seems to have been trying to flex various relationships throughout the world. (Interesting report here from CFR: https://cfrd8-files.cfr.org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/CSR82_Cook_Turkey_0.pdf)
Who are other key players on the world stage and who are enemies or allies of the U.S.?
I assume we consider the G20 countries to be major players (France, Germany, England, Italy, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, South Africa, Indonesia).
Other non-G20 countries that I would consider to be particularly relevant: UAE, Israel, North Korea, Syria.
Of every country I’ve listed, probably the only ones that are obvious enemies are Iran, North Korea and Syria.
Who are our strongest allies? Maybe KSA, Israel, Canada, Germany, England, France, Australia (?) Despite all of Trump’s bluster, I still think that those last 5 are still pretty strong allies.
I would put China, Russia, Turkey and UAE in their own category of doing things that suit their own interests, working with the U.S. when there is something they want, but going on their own when they want. KSA might fit here too, but my sense is that they are more firmly in Trump’s camp based on recent events.
I assume that the rest of the countries listed are basically allies at this point, but I am unclear about how strong the relationships are. India is a strange one to me, because they seem like they could have become a much bigger force and helpful friend in that area, but it also seems like Modi is overmatched in terms of working on a large scale like that.
What events and actions are shaping the world right now, among the above countries and others?
Well, we could spend hours on China (and there is a China a thread, I believe), but to name a few: Belt and Road Initiative (https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/all-roads-lead-to-china-the-belt-and-road-initiative-explained/), building out man-made islands in the Pacific, stealing IP, what is really happening with their economy, Made in China 2025, etc.
Unrest in Venezuela is a situation into which the U.S. has inserted itself and I assume will have ripple effects in South America and Central America.
Our approach to aid/crackdowns in Latin America and the effect on immigration.
Russian aggression around the world.
What is Kim Jong-Un going to do?
What is Assad doing (seems mostly laying low internationally lately, but I may have missed some stuff. I guess still doing a lot domestically to crush opposition)?
Also huge swaths of Africa where seemingly anything goes, continual upheaval and disorganization, though also some improvement and also likely long-term investment and routes from China (and a little bit from Russia potentially).
What’s the point of all this?
I’m mostly trying to organize my own thoughts on this and thought it might be worthwhile to post here so that others could help me fill in the gaps. It also helps to try to have multi-faceted view and relevant factors to consider for major geopolitical strategy and our foreign policy moving forward. Regardless of whether you believe in a more isolationist position or more global intertwining, we are going to be affected by the actions of the rest of the world more and more as time goes on.
I think the first thing to think about what is the landscape is, who are the players and what are the actions that are really shaping the future of the world.
The Major Players?
Reading a book review a few weeks ago of The Empire and Five Kings, the author, Bernard-Henri Levy states (paraphrased): The U.S. has given up its role in maintaining order around the world. Into that vacuum have stepped China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey (the 5 kings).
The first three make sense to me and were key players that I was initially thinking about. I recognize the role of Iran and Turkey, but am less sure about the total impact on the world right now. I suppose I understand that those countries are increasing their attempts to influence events and spaces in the world, though I have been skeptical of their real impact. Iran’s recent aggression on tankers and planes, as well as recent stories about their attempts to use methods of social media manipulation in America, perhaps indicate that they are more serious than I thought.
For Turkey, I know that Erdogan has been consolidating power over time, put out the hit on Gulen, and generally seems to have been trying to flex various relationships throughout the world. (Interesting report here from CFR: https://cfrd8-files.cfr.org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/CSR82_Cook_Turkey_0.pdf)
Who are other key players on the world stage and who are enemies or allies of the U.S.?
I assume we consider the G20 countries to be major players (France, Germany, England, Italy, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, South Africa, Indonesia).
Other non-G20 countries that I would consider to be particularly relevant: UAE, Israel, North Korea, Syria.
Of every country I’ve listed, probably the only ones that are obvious enemies are Iran, North Korea and Syria.
Who are our strongest allies? Maybe KSA, Israel, Canada, Germany, England, France, Australia (?) Despite all of Trump’s bluster, I still think that those last 5 are still pretty strong allies.
I would put China, Russia, Turkey and UAE in their own category of doing things that suit their own interests, working with the U.S. when there is something they want, but going on their own when they want. KSA might fit here too, but my sense is that they are more firmly in Trump’s camp based on recent events.
I assume that the rest of the countries listed are basically allies at this point, but I am unclear about how strong the relationships are. India is a strange one to me, because they seem like they could have become a much bigger force and helpful friend in that area, but it also seems like Modi is overmatched in terms of working on a large scale like that.
What events and actions are shaping the world right now, among the above countries and others?
Well, we could spend hours on China (and there is a China a thread, I believe), but to name a few: Belt and Road Initiative (https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/all-roads-lead-to-china-the-belt-and-road-initiative-explained/), building out man-made islands in the Pacific, stealing IP, what is really happening with their economy, Made in China 2025, etc.
Unrest in Venezuela is a situation into which the U.S. has inserted itself and I assume will have ripple effects in South America and Central America.
Our approach to aid/crackdowns in Latin America and the effect on immigration.
Russian aggression around the world.
What is Kim Jong-Un going to do?
What is Assad doing (seems mostly laying low internationally lately, but I may have missed some stuff. I guess still doing a lot domestically to crush opposition)?
Also huge swaths of Africa where seemingly anything goes, continual upheaval and disorganization, though also some improvement and also likely long-term investment and routes from China (and a little bit from Russia potentially).
What’s the point of all this?
I’m mostly trying to organize my own thoughts on this and thought it might be worthwhile to post here so that others could help me fill in the gaps. It also helps to try to have multi-faceted view and relevant factors to consider for major geopolitical strategy and our foreign policy moving forward. Regardless of whether you believe in a more isolationist position or more global intertwining, we are going to be affected by the actions of the rest of the world more and more as time goes on.