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Anarchy99

2019 Anarchy League 2 Thread

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Posted (edited)

All things Anarchy League 2.

League 2 League Site
Draft set to start 8/7/19 at 8:00 AM Eastern.
No timer until everyone makes their first round pick.

Draft Order:
01) Reaper - IN
02) Firstseason1988
03) Just Win Baby
04) Anarchy99 - IN
05) Coordinator
06) nittanylion - IN
07) JeremyX13
08) Pigskin Fanatic - IN
09) Norseman - IN
10) Stinkin' Ref - IN
11) rzrback77 - IN
12) Ben & Jerry's - IN
13) BroncoFreak 2K3 - IN
14) Biabreakable - IN
15) Duckboy - IN
16) CalBear - IN

*** EVERYONE NEEDS TO CHECK IN TO THIS THREAD AND INDICATE YOU WERE ABLE TO GET LOGGED INTO THE WEBSITE AND ARE READY TO GO ***

Edited by Anarchy99

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Looks solid. Like being at the turn, hate being at 1.16, but maybe y'all will leave me the kind of awesome picks y'all did last year (and maybe they won't be out for the season before game 1 this year).

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Posted (edited)

Hopefully others will check in soon.

Edited by Anarchy99

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3 hours ago, nittanylion said:

1.06 Alvin Kamara

Wowee, Zowie!!!

I mean, I get why...but, still...

Some really good players in the first round. 😎

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8 hour timer turned on. Clock turned off from 12 AM to 8 AM Eastern time.
If an owner does not have a draft list set up, auto selection will be based on highest ranked player based on ADP.

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There were so many good RB left available I felt safe to take Engram who I am projecting to have 80 or so receptions this year.

Still got Elliot after the turn who was the first of many RB I would have been happy to take with this pick.

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2 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Sorry to be slow on my 2nd and 3rd picks. Will try to be faster going forward.

Nice work taking Edelman right before Anarchy forcing him to actually make a decision now.

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I'm pretty stoked to get Brees at this juncture.

In the other league I'm drafting he was gone before round 5.

 

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Giving up already huh?

While I think I'm doing well I didnt realize the advantage was so demoralizing.

Hopefully you all keep sleeping. 

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Who said anything about giving up?

Just saying this draft is moving at a snails pace. Must be all you eggspurts pouring over your fancy cheatsheets and diligently doing those pick by pick write-ups. :lmao:

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You think this is slow?

I suppose its all a matter of perspective. I used to play this game before the internet.

FWIW my picks take nanoseconds to execute. We have been waiting for you to make up your mind picking around our autodrafts at the turn.😛 And it would be kind of fun to know your thought process as you see those big chunks of autodraft cued to explode once you pick. I did note that you made a good move in my opinion snatching up Cam Newton after the mini QB run. 

Anyhow I thought you just wanted some trash talk because youre bored. If so I am happy to oblige you

Don't complain about old doods being slow though or Anarchy might lose his depends.

I did have some drama and suspense awhile back when me and Duckboy were taking QBs. Really didn't think Brees would make it to me. Of course Duckboy had to take Russ (curse you forever and a day Duckboy!!! ) which made me look like less of a :homer: for taking Cousins.

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12 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I did have some drama and suspense awhile back when me and Duckboy were taking QBs. Really didn't think Brees would make it to me. Of course Duckboy had to take Russ (curse you forever and a day Duckboy!!! ) which made me look like less of a :homer: for taking Cousins.

If it makes you feel any better, I loaded 3 picks in with two before me - Watkins/NO/NE in order.  I got one at least :kicksrock:

You, Freak and Cal are killing me at the turns.

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1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

I'm surprised you guys are letting me run away with this draft like this... :pickle:

I would recommend Imodium if you have the runs.

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Posted (edited)

Ben & Jerry's just drafted its 5th RB (Mattison) and already has 6 WRs, so that was an invalid draft pick.

You could punish him by just having him keep Mattison and short himself at TE, PK, or DST. :P 

Edited by Just Win Baby
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9 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

Is mfl down or is it just me.

 

Working for me.

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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

Working for me.

I can literally get to everything else but mfl....and my apologies because I believe I am otc in something 

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7 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

I can literally get to everything else but mfl....and my apologies because I believe I am otc in something 

OTC in 1 and 2. If you tell me who you want, I can make your picks. 

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All bust team for 2019

Pick 110 Saints QB - I keep hearing that Brees doesn't throw 600 times anymore yet he still continues to play at a very high level. They do not have Ingram anymore and they added Cook. Why wouldn't they pass the ball a bit more?

Pick 115 Vikings QB -All year I am hearing that the Vikings will not throw the ball as much and people take a 3 game sample size with Stefnaski to extrapolate reasons for why they do not like Cousins. Who says that the Vikings do not pass the ball more effectively if they do have improvements to their running game and offensive line?

For QB people waited long enough that I could get the players I liked outside of the top 100. I think both of them have top 12 potential. Brees more than Cousins. While the playoff games help.. the playoff games help. Brees was the 2nd highest scoring player last season. He was the 8th highest the year before, while throwing the ball less. I do not really understand why you all passed. Brees was gone by the 4th round pick 62 in the other Anarchy league I drafted. Seems like a good marriage of great player and great value to me. Cousins was the 8th highest scoring player in 2017 and the 22nd highest scoring player last season. I like the Vikings chances of making the playoffs and adding at least one more game to Cousins season. Of course I was wrong about that last year.

Pick 19 Ezekial Elliot RB - I certainly did not want the unknown holdout situation to worry about. Too good to pass up if they all make nice soon. I cannot forget the year Emmitt held out until right before week one. He scored the most fantasy points that year. While RB are devalued in this format Elliot is a top 5 RB when playing.

Pick 51 Devontae Freeman RB - Everything I have been hearing sounds positive for Freeman being fully recovered from his injuries. The lack of investment by the Falcons in the RB position also speaks to their confidence in his health. While I do like Ito Smith I do not see him spelling a healthy Freeman much if at all. The Falcons offense is improving and I think that helps Freeman get more TD opportunities. I like this for a pick just outside the top 50.

Pick 142 Matt Breida RB - McKinnon is injured although Coleman will surely timeshare. At this point of the draft there were not many RB left who I thought could get 200 touches. Breida might not either but I think he could.

Pick 270 Gus Edwards RB - There really wasn't much available here. I don't expect Edwards to do much with Ingram there now. He played surprisingly well though so who knows? Maybe he still gets a few carries here and there.

I invested two premium picks at the RB position which is against my general philosophy for this format, but the players I got too valuable in my view to pass. Trying to find a RB after the top 100 picks is MUCH more difficult to do that finding a WR at that point of the draft. Only this game would make me feel excited about Breida.

Pick 46.    Lockett, Tyler SEA WR    - I have long been a fan of Lockett and now opportunity has lined up for him. His efficiency has been amazing. Doug Baldwin numbers seem possible. 

Pick 83.    Davis, Corey TEN WR    - I don't like the QB but I still believe in Davis talent.

Pick 147.    Miller, Anthony CHI WR    - He is injured right now, I hope not for long. He did well as a rookie and I think Trubisky gets a bit better this year (tons of missed passes between Miller and Trubisky last year mostly the QB fault).

 Pick 174.    Jones, Zay BUF WR    - Buffalo is where WR go to die. Jones had a historically bad rookie season but he really improved a lot last year and did it with a rookie QB.

Pick 211.    Samuel, Deebo SFO WR - I think he will be a starting WR for the 49ers and his RAC ability should lead to some high percentage opportunities he can capitalize on. JG has not been playing so good recently.

This is what you end up with at WR when you are drafting other positions in the early rounds. I can live with this though as I think the first four WR I have should be top 36 type performers. Some of them like Lockett, Davis and Miller could be strong WR twos if things click right for them. I think Lockett has the best chance of doing that out of this group.

Pick 14 .Engram, Evan NYG TE - With the departure of OBJ and now suspension of Tate, injury to Shephard. I just see a scenario where they are going to have to use Engram a ton and he may lead the team in targets this year behind Barkley. I can see 80 receptions for Engram when its all said and done if he stays healthy. 

Pick 78. Jordan WAS TE - A injury waiting to happen but when he is healthy he tends to be the best receiver they have.

Pick 179.Dissly, Will SEA TE - While I am okay with this pick, I did want Dissly for my flex. I messed up a bit with my predraft I guess as that was not really my plan for this pick. Sometimes I put too many players in the predraft cue and I don't always sort them well towards the end of lists. I think this is fine though as I do expect him to lead the TE in targets for Seattle FWIW.

Pick 238.Carlson, Daniel OAK PK - I had this guy last year. He seems to have cemented the job with the Raiders. Fingers crossed. Meanwhile the Vikings kicker situation is still not really settled.

Pick 243 McManus, Brandon DEN PK - I am not sure why folks are down on this guy. I like a kicker in mile high.

I decided to not chase kickers this year as even doing that would blow up in my face.

Pick 206 Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def - I like the Ravens defense despite some recent big name departures I think they added more than they lost. This pick should have been at 179 so I feel lucky it fell to me.

Pick 275 Raiders, Oakland OAK Def - Terrible defense. No hope for playoffs. My last pick. At least I didn't get the Dolphins.

I think this draft turned out pretty well except for drafting Dissly out of turn. Yeah I meant to do that!!

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Posted (edited)

Team JWB:


1.3 Travis Kelce, TE, KC - Drafted as TE1. Finished last season as TE1 and the #1 overall scorer excluding TMQB, so he should be about as good a value as is possible to draft at this position. Playoff points seem very likely.

In the first round, my only concern was whether Kelce and Ertz would go 1-2, since I saw them as easily the top two picks in this format. Thankfully, neither of them were picked before me, so I had my choice. Planned to go WR-WR at the next turn, and hoped unrealistically for Keenan Allen.

 

2.14 Adam Thielen, WR, MIN - Drafted as WR13. Finished last season as WR7, despite the fact that MIN did not make the playoffs. Feels like a great value here, even though playoff points seem unlikely.

3.3 Julian Edelman, WR, NE - Drafted as WR14. Finished last season as WR13, despite missing the first 4 regular season games, and was WR11 in ppg. It seems reasonable to expect Edelman to be Brady's top target again. Playoff points seem very likely.

My objective in the first few rounds is to try to target safe players, and I think I did that here. I also want to focus almost exclusively on TE and WR, unless incredible value presents itself at RB. Would not consider any TMQB this early. Tentatively planned on 1 RB and 1 TE/WR at the next turn.

 

4.14 Tyler Boyd, WR, CIN - Drafted as WR24. Finished last season as WR19, playing in 14 games. He actually averaged more ppg in the games AJ Green played than in those he didn't, so Green possibly playing most of the season shouldn't hurt Boyd much, if at all.

5.3 Allen Robinson, WR, CHI - Drafted as WR26. Finished last season as WR31, playing in 14 games. He tore his ACL in the first game of the 2017 season, so he missed a lot of time last offseason, his first with Chicago. He should be healthier and in better sync with Nagy and Trubisky this season, so his production could improve. Playoff points seem likely.

Was hoping for Mack, Michel, or Carson at 4.14, but all were taken within the 7 picks before mine, so felt Boyd was the best value on the board. Would have considered James White at 5.3, but he went at 5.2. No compelling TE value, so came out of this turn with 2 WRs. Hoped to get 2 of Coleman, Guice, Ekeler at the next turn.

 

6.14 Tevin Coleman, RB, SF - Drafted as RB31. Finished last season as RB21. Surprised he made it back to me here. Should be the lead RB in SF this season.

7.3 Austin Ekeler, RB, LAC - Drafted as RB33. Finished last season as RB25, despite missing 2 games. It seems likely that Gordon will actually hold out into the season, but Ekeler is good value at this position even if he doesn't. If Gordon does hold out, Ekeler should be great value here. Playoff points seem very likely. As a Chargers fan, glad to have one of my favorite players on board.

Happy that Coleman, Guice, and Ekeler all made it back and felt comfortable letting Ekeler slide to 7.3, with Guice as a fallback. With 2 RBs, 4 WRs, and a TE, definitely wanted a TE at the next turn.

 

8.14 Ravens, TMQB, BAL - Drafted as TMQB19. Finished last season as TMQB17, but from week 11 (when Jackson became the starter) to week 21, BAL was the #10 TMQB. It is reasonable to expect that Jackson will be better this season, in which case BAL could finish as a top 10 TMQB. Playoff points are possible.

9.3 Gerald Everett, TE, LAR - Drafted as TE27. Finished last season as TE21, but was TE12 from week 9 to week 21, despite scoring only 9 points total in 3 playoff games. He is in a crowded offense, but I expect him to score more points in his third season if he stays healthy. Playoff points seem very likely.

I waited later than I usually do to draft my second TE, but I think it worked out well. There was a big QB run between 7.3 and 8.14, with 12 TMQBs taken in 26 picks. So I felt I had to get on the board with one of the last ones with high upside potential. Figured I might get my next one at the next turn, if I could get one before the next tier drop.

 

10.14 Stephen Gostkowski, PK, NE - Drafted as PK3. Finished last season PK4, the first time he finished outside the top 3 in this format since 2010, and he was only 1 point behind Tucker at #3. Gostkowski is arguably the safest PK pick in the league given his history and the likelihood of multiple playoff games.

11.3 Bengals, TMQB, CIN - Drafted as TMQB24. Finished last season as TMQB17, despite the fact that Dalton got hurt and Jeff Driskel had to start the last 5 games. In weeks 1 to 12, with Dalton starting, CIN was the #15 TMQB. That was under Marvin Lewis, who has now been replaced by Zac Taylor, who was an offensive coach under Sean McVay the past few seasons. All things considered, it seems very likely the Bengals TMQB will outperform this draft position, maybe by a lot, and it appeared to me there was a significant dropoff to all of the remaining TMQBs after CIN.

I like to draft my first PK a bit early in this format so I only need 1 more if a PK run starts, especially drafting near a turn, with 26 picks in between my odd and even round picks. I don't want to get stuck with a zero at PK, as 1 or more teams typically do in this league. Since a few had been drafted, wanted to get started. With 7 picks to go, needed 2 RBs, 1 WR, 1 PK, 2 DSTs, and 1 Flex. Figured I would likely punt RBs to later and target PK and best non-RB value at the next turn. Was expecting a run on PK before my next pick.

 

12.14 Golden Tate, WR, NYG - Drafted as WR67. Finished last season as WR24, despite being traded midseason to PHI, at which point his production understandably dropped off. Over the past 5 seasons, he has averaged 13.9 ppg in this format, and I see no reason he cannot carry that forward in New York, with Beckham's departure vacating 124 targets. Tate will miss 4 games due to suspension, but applying that average across 12 games projects to 167 points, which would have been good for WR36 last season. Happy to get him this late.

13.3 Mason Crosby, PK, GB - Drafted as PK15. Finished last season as PK8. He is a slight risk, since the team brought in another PK for competition, but I expect Crosby to win that competition. If so, this achieves my goal of not getting stuck on the wrong end of the PK list. Playoff points are possible.

In retrospect, I drafted my PKs a bit too early. In past A2 drafts, I seem to recall there was typically a significant run on PKs earlier than the late 15th/early 16th rounds, which is where it came this year. Looking forward, I had several RBs in mind and planned to get my 3rd at the next turn if any of them were still available. And probably my first DST.

 

14.14 Geoff Swaim, TE, JAC - Drafted as TE32. Finished last season as TE37 playing for Dallas, but he missed 7 games. He was TE24 in ppg. He now looks to be the starter for the Jaguars and should get a healthy target share there. Expecting 100+ points here if he stays healthy, which is great value at this point in the draft.

15.3 Mike Davis, RB, CHI - Drafted as RB61. Finished last season as RB35, despite sharing the backfield with Carson and Penny. Now he will share with rookie Montgomery and Cohen. While SEA was #1 in RB touches last season, CHI was #5, not too far off. Potential for 100 points from a RB in the 15th round, another great value.

Couldn't pass up Swaim for a RB who will probably score 50 fewer points or for a DST. At this point, I decided my last pick would be on RB and I would take 2 DSTs at the next turn.

 

16.14 Seahawks, DST, SEA - Drafted as DST20. Finished last season as DST11. Always happy to draft a SEA defense under Carroll. Playoff points are possible. Hoping for a repeat of last year's 150 points.

17.3 Redskins, DST, WAS - Drafted as DST24. Finished last season as DST15. Hoping for a repeat of last year's 140 points.

As planned. Hoped Malcolm Brown or Jamaal Williams would make it back to my final pick, but did not expect that, and they didn't.

 

18.14 Rex Burkhead, RB, NE - Drafted as RB69. Finished last season as RB56 and has generally found a productive role when healthy the past few seasons. Hoping for 50+ points.

I liked drafting from the #3 spot. Hopefully I will still like it once the season plays out. 

Edited by Just Win Baby
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I wasn’t stoked to be down at 1.16, but the way the draft has gone the last couple of years, I figured there would still be some value down there. And I wasn’t disappointed, as two non-receivers went off the board first, both very questionable picks. Look, I know Stinkin’ Ref, last year’s winner, had Barkley and KC TMQB on his team, but he picked them up at 1.13 and 5.13. There’s no way Barkley is worth 1.01 in this format, and KC TMQB is only worth it if Mahomes again outscores the field by 100 points as he did in 2018. That’s not inconceivable but my money’s on the field. Those picks, along with other reaches for RB and TMQB, left some solid receiving options at the turn.

1.16 JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR PIT)

The league did a good job of knocking out top tier of TEs, but there were still a lot of good ones down here. I’d plugged in five a few picks ago, with Smith-Schuster as #2 on that list (after Julio Jones). He’s pretty dang awesome and should be even more awesome as the clear #1 in PIT. Expecting a top-5 WR finish which is big at 1.16.

2.01 Antonio Brown (WR OAK)

Brown was #5 on that same list. He’s also awesome, but he has a lot more risk associated with him. Switching teams isn’t great for a WR whose production relies on timing and rapport with the QB, and this weird thing with his feet is bizarre. Still, he has a finished as the #1 WR in Anarchy and he has the skill to get there again. Though in retrospect I wish I’d taken Keenan Allen (Go Bears!), especially because this pick was before the whole helmet debacle.

Long way to go until my next pick. I’m expecting I’ll be focusing on TEs; after the first four or five the curve flattens out a lot, and there are enough decent options that I can probably pick up one or two at the turn of the third. 

3.16 Melvin Gordon (RB LAC)

Earlier in the round I’d been excited to see RBs like Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette still on the board, but they got knocked out a few picks earlier. I’d also been targeting Robert Woods and a couple of TEs who got taken ahead of me. So I wound up with Gordon, which is actually a decent pick for Anarchy, I think. His holdout is the big question mark; this could be a Le’Veon Bell situation that turns into a disaster. (And it's gotten worse since I made the pick) But if he plays 10+ games he’s a massive bargain at 3.16 (he finished as RB6 last year). 

4.01 Austin Hooper (TE ATL)

When in doubt, take a TE. Hooper finished as the #6 TE in Anarchy last year and he’s the #11 TE off the board here. Unexciting, and even worse, he’s from Stanfraud, but there’s not a lot of value in the draft right now so it’s a BPA situation.

For that matter, now that I came out of the first four rounds with two WRs, a TE and an RB, I’ll be pretty flexible with my next set of picks. Whatever looks good.

5.16 Marvin Jones (WR DET) 

Go Bears! Jones is a playmaker, inconsistent in weekly fantasy, but pretty well guaranteed to get 60ish receptions and 1000ish yards if he comes back healthy, which seems likely. He might get those numbers in four or five huge games, but that doesn’t matter for Anarchy. He doesn’t have a whole lot of upside from there, but he should be a solid pick at this spot (and possibly my only token Bear this year). The draft had gone heavy on RB and TE leading up to this pick so WR is where the value was; Jones was my first choice for the spot.

6.01 Will Fuller (WR HOU)

Fuller was actually my second choice so I’m pretty happy at this point. His story is pretty similar to Jones’; likely to be around 60 receptions and 1000 yards if he’s healthy and plays 16. His health might be a little sketchier, but his upside is also probably a little higher than Jones. I’m pretty happy with the pick at this spot in any case. 

I’m now pretty WR-heavy so I’m expecting to hit TE and/or RB at the next turn.

7.16 Jordan Howard (RB PHI)

We’re well out of the sexy RB phase, but the run on QBs left some value out there. Howard is potentially a pretty solid RB with some upside depending on how the backfield situation in PHI shakes out. If he gets goal-line touches, which seems likely, he’ll be in pretty good pickup for a mid-round Anarchy RB.

8.01 Matt LaCosse (TE NEP)

We are almost out of TEs with pulses at this point, and I need at least one more. LaCosse’s move to New England creates some possibilities; he’s not Gronk by a long shot but New England always finds ways to use its TEs. It’s not clear that LaCosse will be the guy, but even if he comes up with 40 receptions he’ll be good value here.

I still need at least one WR and two RBs. Right now people have moved away from the RB stable, and there are a few others in this tier I’m interested in (Penny Rashaad, Peyton Barber, LeSean McCoy), and I’ll probably sit on CJ Anderson later (Go Bears). Unlikely I’ll be going for a QB or any other position at the next turn; probably two RBs, or a RB and a WR.

9.16 Rashaad Penny (RB SEA)

The run has been on QB and WR. As usual I’ll be leaving QB to the end of the draft, and I need some RBs, so I went with two here. My first pick, Peterson, went at 9.13, but I’m OK with Penny at this point of the draft. He’s the #2 in an RBBC, but so is almost everyone at this point. With luck he could be the #1b in Seattle. He was pretty effective in limited play in 2018, and if he gets more like 150 touches in 2019 he’ll be able to produce some decent numbers.

10.01 LeSean McCoy (RB BUF)

McCoy is the one RB left who’s still the nominal starter. And he doesn’t have much behind him; a 36-year-old Frank Gore and a third-round pick in Devin Singletary. The only reason he’s still on the board is that his 2018 was pretty dang crappy, and there’s some risk that he gets cut if Singletary looks like the real deal. My bet is that he’ll keep the job, and that his performance will be closer to 2017 (~1600 total, 8 TDs) than 2018 (~750 total, 3 TDs).

I’m now up with four RBs, four WRs and two TEs, so only one more WR and the flex to fill. I’m hoping to target CJ Anderson for the flex later; that might have to be at the next turn, depending on how the draft goes from here. Looks like kickers are starting so there might be some time, but teams are pretty RB-poor (I’m only the second team to have 4 RBs).

11.16 Matt Prater (PK DET)

OK, look. It’s one thing to grab Keenan Allen ahead of me, or to snarf Jared Goff before I’d be willing to take him. I understand that that’s part of fantasy football. But, really, taking Giorgio Tavecchio as the #6 PK just before my pick? That’s just mean.

My roster of real positions is getting full enough that I have space to start taking PKs and QBs. Looking at the landscape, I’m expecting a run on PKs and Ds to start here, and I think there are enough RBs left out there that I’ll be able to grab my targeted flex, CJ Anderson, at the next turn. So i’m going to pick a WR and kicker here. 

And it woulda been Tavecchio, dammit rzrback77. Instead, it’s some other guy. Kickers suck. My PK philosophy is, take one from Cal, and if you can't, take one from a dome. This one’s from a dome.

12.01 Tre’Quan Smith (WR NOS)

A good-looking receiver on a high-powered offense. He’s officially behind Ted Ginn Jr. on the depth chart, but he’ll see the field a ton and make some noise. I’m pretty happy with this as my likely last WR. I also considered Golden Tate, and would have gone that way if he hadn’t switched teams as well as gotten suspended.

Now hoping that Anderson falls to 13.16, and then picking up a couple QBs and Ds.

13.16 CJ Anderson (RB DET)

I was surprised to see six RBs go before my pick in the 13th round and I was definitely getting worried that I’d miss out on my boy. He was probably next up on a bunch of people’s lists. He’s not going to be the bell cow in Detroit, but you have to love what he did off the couch in LA last year. I think he’s always been underrated as a talent, even at Cal, and he’ll likely get a lot of snaps, and possibly be the goal-line back in Detroit. Should be a pretty solid flex, and always fun to watch.

14.01 Aldrick Rosas (PK NYG)

We’ve run out of domes. Whatever. The QBs left all look kinda the same to me, so I might as well pick up another kicker before I have to pay attention to the camp battles. 

Now, two QBs, two Ds.

15.16 Jacksonville Jaguars TMQB

I don’t think Nick Foles is likely to be awesome in Jacksonville, but he could manage mediocre, and that would be good value down here.

16.01 Miami Dolphins TMQB

Fitzmagic! He’s not a good NFL QB but he puts up reasonable fantasy numbers wherever he goes. Josh Rosen would be not as good a situation. But whoever’s there has decent targets in Parker, Stills and Woods.

Now a coupla D’s and I’m set. There are some Cal defenders hanging around out there.

17.16 New York Giants DST

Defense. No Cal players that I know of. Think we’re out of them.

18.01 Cincinatti Bengals DST

Another defense. See 17.16

Overall I found the draft a little strange. Maybe because Fiddles isn’t in the league this year, there were very few cases where anyone took guys that I was targeting near where I had them (only Tavecchio, grr). I’m reasonably pleased with the lineup but it’ll take two situations working out reasonably: Antonio Brown and Melvin Gordon. Both have gotten worse since I made those picks. Brown seems to maybe be turning the corner but Gordon’s getting uglier. Gonna be a long season if he holds out until week 10.

Structurally, it’s probably a mistake to end up with 5 RBs. Taking CJ Anderson where I did was probably the right thing, but maybe I should have passed on Lesean McCoy at 10.01. Scrub WRs and TEs are just way more powerful in Anarchy than scrub RBs so really my flex should be a receiver. Devante Parker, maybe.

Thanks, Anarchy, for putting this together again, it always makes me jump-start my player evaluation. Good luck to all!

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2 hours ago, CalBear said:

There’s no way Barkley is worth 1.01 in this format, and KC TMQB is only worth it if Mahomes again outscores the field by 100 points as he did in 2018. That’s not inconceivable but my money’s on the field.

 

2 hours ago, CalBear said:

Structurally, it’s probably a mistake to end up with 5 RBs... Scrub WRs and TEs are just way more powerful in Anarchy than scrub RBs so really my flex should be a receiver.

Agree with both of these points.

 

2 hours ago, CalBear said:

Thanks, Anarchy, for putting this together again, it always makes me jump-start my player evaluation. Good luck to all!

And this most of all. Thanks, @Anarchy99 !

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Posted (edited)

Unlike other years, I really haven't paid close attention to things that went on all off season. So I was mostly going off of my memory of last year, which normally isn't the best place to be when trying to decide what will happen this season.

1.04 (Pick 4) - Zach Ertz - TE2 (Overall Anarchy League ADP 4) - 2018 Ranking TE2
Ertz took a monumental leap in scoring last year, adding 87 points to his scoring total from 2017. Top tier tight ends always go high in these leagues, and if I were to draft again I probably wouldn't draft him here. In researching info on him after the fact, the Eagles coaching staff said they probably overused him last year and they will scale down his targets this year. Not exactly what you want to read about the #4 pick in your draft. The Eagles are in decent shape to make the playoffs, so hopefully an extra game will make it worth it. As long as Ertz stays healthy he is probably worth it here, but if he sees a lot fewer targets it could be a minor issue.

2.13 (Pick 29) - Todd Gurley - RB10 (Overall Anarchy League ADP 22) - 2018 Ranking RB1
Call me in 6 months and we can debate if Gurley was a boom or a bust. I took him the latest out of the 5 Anarchy drafts so far. Gurley would have had to drop 140 points to rank as the #10 RB last year . . . which is basically a dip of 40%. If he stays on the field he probably will be worth it . . . but his performance in the post season was not very inspiring. Hopefully he just needed extended rest for his knees to heal up. I have my doubts . . . but there is always hope.

3.04 (Pick 36) - Brandin Cooks - WR15 (Overall Anarchy League ADP 37) - 2018 Ranking WR11
Even though he's been on 3 teams in 3 years, you pretty much know what Cooks is and where he will rank. He's a safe pick and there is no reason to think he won't be a Top 10-15 receiver again.

4.13 (Pick 61) - Chris Carson - RB22 (Overall Anarchy League ADP 64) - 2018 Ranking RB14
I guess I am buying the Carson Kool-Aid, as I picked him up in 3 Anarchy Leagues. By all reports, he's had a great camp, has been more active in the receiving game, and Penny looks like a bust so far. That means even money Carson will get dinged, try to play through it, and will go down for the season or lose the job. I am still trying to get a read on the Seahawks in their rebirth as a team. I think they probably played over their collective heads last year, but hopefully they sneak into the playoffs again.

5.04 (Pick 68) - Delanie Walker - TE14 (Overall Anarchy League ADP 73 - 2018 Ranking TE100 - 2017 Ranking TE4
Place your bets on Walker. The Titans offense as a whole doesn't seem to have an alpha male. Walker is getting long in the tooth for a tight end (35) and is coming off a serious leg injury. IMO, the Titans are more inclined to go backwards than forwards, but I think a lot of people in the organization will be playing for their jobs this year (the coach and their QB among them). A concern is that if the Titans aren't in playoff contention halfway through the season, Walker could cede playing time to Jonnu Smith should they start to look more seriously at younger players.

6.13 (Pick 93) - Eagles TMQB - TMQB6 (Overall Anarchy League ADP 53) - 2018 Ranking TMQB13
This draft went a lot differently than the other leagues. For whatever reasons, after the initial few TMQB's got picked, most owners in this league opted to wait on the position. Without me taking the Eagles when I did, the Eagles TMQB had an ADP of 43 across the other 4 leagues. So I got them 50 picks later. When I saw that QB's weren't getting drafted and having two picks very close together, it seemed like good value and I was pretty sure a QB run was on the horizon. The talking heads make it sound like the Eagles are stacked and with a healthy Wentz the sky is the limit. But when has Wentz ever stayed healthy for a full season?

7.04 (Pick 100) - Falcons TMQB - TMQB7 (Overall Anarchy League ADP 57) - 2018 Ranking TMQB5
Similar to the Eagles QB, the Falcons QB had an ADP of 45 across the other 4 leagues, meaning I got them 55 picks later. The Falcons could be a little better and eke out a playoff spot, and that could push them up a spot or two in the rankings. When I see a player or option that is going 3 full rounds later than in other leagues, it seems like taking them is a no brainer. And 11 TMQBs got snatched up by the time I picked next. I certainly wasn't planing to go QB-QB in the 6th and 7th rounds, but that looked like the value sweet spot.

8.13 (Pick 125) - Dante Pettis - WR46 (Overall Anarchy League ADP 126) - 2018 Ranking WR76
Who knows what is going on in SF. Jimmy G hasn't looked great and there are a lot of WR options that aren't clearly defined. Pettis ranked as the WR23 over the second half of the season last year and I have seen him ranked in the 25-40 range this year. Some also feel he will be the one SF to own this year. It seemed like he had decent upside and I was getting behind the 8 ball at receiver, having already drafted 2 TE and 2 QB.

9.04 (Pick 132) - John Brown - WR48 (Overall Anarchy League ADP 125) - 2018 Ranking WR48
Brown started off pretty well last year in BAL but then pretty much saw his production fall dramatically once Lamar Jackson took over. Halfway through the season last year, Brown was the WR20. Theoretically, he's the WR1 on the Bills . . . but are there ANY viable fantasy candidates this year from Buffalo? Some people see the Bills fighting for a wildcard spot. I am not one of them, but it is nice to think there is a slim chance they could finagle an extra game some how.

10.13 (Pick 157) - Jamison Crowder - WR57 (Overall Anarchy League ADP 156) - 2018 Ranking WR90
I was surprised to learn that over the past three seasons, the DOLPHINS led the entire NFL in production out of the slot. Gase takes his bug eyes to the Jets, and if they run an offense anything near like he did in MIA, Crowder should see a lot of targets. Maybe it was Landry that was the reason why they did so well out of the slot, but in PPR leagues I think Crowder is flying under the radar.

11.04 (Pick 164) - Justin Tucker - PK5 - (Overall Anarchy League ADP 158) - 2018 Ranking WR3
Another safe pick. You know what you are getting in Tucker. I always like to get at least one stud kicker rather than have to potentially search and scramble for guys in a kicker battle. A kicker run of decent kickers came shortly after I took him.

12.13 (Pick 189) - Josh Gordon - WR66 (Overall Anarchy League ADP 189) - 2018 Ranking WR52
I potentially lucked into this pick. The two people that drafted after the news hit didn't take him, so I figured why not. He was the #29 receiver in the weeks he played for the Pats. This pick runs the gambit of potentially huge upside to he tests positive and never plays again. Cooks ranked 11th for NE in 2017. Maybe Gordon could stay on the straight and narrow and perform after some time with Brady in the NE system. That's the glass if half full perspective. I would be happy with what he did last year.

13.04 (Pick 196) - Devin Singletary - RB51 (Overall Anarchy League ADP 171 - 2018 Ranking NA
Singletary has two old and decrepit backs in front of him, so I am hoping he can carve out a role. But as mentioned earlier . . . it's Buffalo we're talking about here.

14.13 (Pick 221) - Eagles Defense - DEF13 (Overall Anarchy League ADP 196) - 2018 Ranking DEF20
I guess I am going to have to learn to like the Eagles having their QB, DEF, and Ertz. They were the #3 defense the year before, not that that is indicative of anything.

15.04 (Pick 229) - Ryan Succop - PK19 (Overall Anarchy League ADP 229) - 2018 Ranking PK18
Just trying to avoid a situation where I end up guessing the wrong kicker. Succop ranked 7th the season before . . . maybe the Titans find enough offense to get into the red zone but stall.

16.13 (Pick 253) - Bills Defense - DEF19 (Overall Anarchy League ADP 224) - 2018 Ranking DEF7
It's not like I was Jonesing to pick Buffalo players . . . but why on earth did I draft THREE of them?!? The defense were decent last year . . . did they get appreciably worse this off season?

17.04 (Pick 260) - Mike Gisicki - TE33 (Overall Anarchy League ADP 254) - 2018 Ranking TE48
I have seen some people trying to connect the dots that a Patriots head coach will try to use the TE spot and turn that guy into Gronk. I want what they're smoking. But in theory he's the starting TE, and as discussed earlier in this thread, getting part time numbers from late round TE picks is golden (compared to dart throws at RB). The Fins signed Dwayne Allen, who at this point is essentially a blocking TE. As a fer instance, Ricky Seals-Jones put up a rather mundane 34-343-1 last year, which was good enough to rank as TE28 and score 108.30 points in this league. That's how low the bar is set in this league for TE scoring. After 250 picks, how many RB's will sniff 100 points?

18.13 (Pick 285) - Jamaal Williams - RB (Overall Anarchy League ADP 262) -2018 Ranking RB49
By comparison, Williams had 675 YFS and 3 TD last year . . . and scored 87.40 points. He fared better the year before (117.80 points). I am not sold on Aaron Jones staying healthy or getting a heavy workload, so Williams should at least do well enough to not be a horrible 285th pick.

Overall, given that I did no prep work and didn't have much of a plan or strategy, I think I did pretty well. If the Eagles and Bills tank I will be in trouble. But I don't think I had any major faux pas. The only thing I would have probably liked better would be to have picked some more players from potential teams, but we all know that things don't always work out as planned.


 

Edited by Anarchy99
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Nice to get to read all these writeups.

I really like Anarchy & JWB's teams in this league. Anarchy's QBs are 2 of the biggest steals around.

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9 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

2.14 Adam Thielen, WR, MIN - Drafted as WR13. Finished last season as WR7, despite the fact that MIN did not make the playoffs. Feels like a great value here, even though playoff points seem unlikely.

What makes you think playoff game (s) are unlikely for the Vikings?

I think they have as good a shot as Chicago to win the division.

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3 hours ago, Biabreakable said:
13 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

2.14 Adam Thielen, WR, MIN - Drafted as WR13. Finished last season as WR7, despite the fact that MIN did not make the playoffs. Feels like a great value here, even though playoff points seem unlikely.

What makes you think playoff game (s) are unlikely for the Vikings?

I think they have as good a shot as Chicago to win the division.

Well, I don't think that. IMO CHI is the clear favorite, and MIN would have to make it as a wild card. Last year's NFC playoff teams were  DAL, PHI, LAR, SEA, CHI, and NO , and I think they will all contend again this year, with the possible exception of DAL, depending on how the Elliott situation goes. And I think ATL, GB, and MIN will also contend. That is a lot of competition, hence my view that MIN is unlikely to make it. I could certainly be wrong, it has happened once or twice. :ph34r:

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8 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

4.13 (Pick 61) - Chris Carson - RB22 (Overall Anarchy League ADP 64) - 2018 Ranking RB14
I guess I am buying the Carson Kool-Aid, as I picked him up in 3 Anarchy Leagues. By all reports, he's had a great camp, has been more active in the receiving game, and Penny looks like a bust so far. That means even money Carson will get dinged, try to play through it, and will go down for the season or lose the job. I am still trying to get a read on the Seahawks in their rebirth as a team. I think they probably played over their collective heads last year, but hopefully they sneak into the playoffs again.

12.13 (Pick 189) - Josh Gordon - WR66 (Overall Anarchy League ADP 189) - 2018 Ranking WR52
I potentially lucked into this pick. The two people that drafted after the news hit didn't take him, so I figured why not. He was the #29 receiver in the weeks he played for the Pats. This pick runs the gambit of potentially huge upside to he tests positive and never plays again. Cooks ranked 11th for NE in 2017. Maybe Gordon could stay on the straight and narrow and perform after some time with Brady in the NE system. That's the glass if half full perspective. I would be happy with what he did last year.

18.13 (Pick 285) - Jamaal Williams - RB (Overall Anarchy League ADP 262) -2018 Ranking RB49
By comparison, Williams had 675 YFS and 3 TD last year . . . and scored 87.40 points. He fared better the year before (117.80 points). I am not sold on Aaron Jones staying healthy or getting a heavy workload, so Williams should at least do well enough to not be a horrible 285th pick.

I would have drafted each of these players if you didn't snipe me. I think you had a very good draft.

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If the Vikings dont make the playoffs heads might roll.

I'm pretty confident they make it. Not sure if they will advance though.

I've seen some good sighs of improvement in their offensive line. Preseason though so who knows?

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This is not meaningful, but perhaps interesting. Here is the DD view of the rosters, with projections updated tonight:

3030.7	Just Win Baby
2921.9	Coordinator
2904.4	Anarchy99
2873.8	Norseman
2854.9	Biabreakable
2790.6	Reaper
2785.2	rzrback77
2775.8	nittanylion
2768.5	BroncoFreak 2K3
2737.3	Stinkin' Ref
2734.3	JeremyX13
2722.9	Duckboy
2710.2	Ben & Jerry's
2656.8	CalBear
2635.5	Pigskin Fanatic
2564.2	Firstseason 1988

Caveats:

  1. These are default FBG projections, no modifications, in DD Classic. I'm sure many of you have different views on many players.
  2. For QB, I drafted every individual QB onto the teams in accordance with TMQB selections to make up the TMQB projections.
  3. Obviously, these projections do not account for playoff points.
  4. Obviously, these projections do not account for injuries or final roster cuts, which will make a huge impact.

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It's been my habit to post a running commentary of my Team-building thoughts through the course of these Survivor Drafts, usually at the 1/3 points. With this one, I was trying to do something and I didn't want to draw any attention to myself if I didn't have to, to see if I could pull it off. DIdn't quite work out how I planned; whatever does in a 16-Teamer? It's been a while since this wrapped up...going to see if I can remember back that far, and figure out how I got from point A to point B. Definitely wasn't a straight line...

1.06: Kamara - no plan yet, just grabbing a foundational piece. Been doing this from the beginning. Know the rules...but the Big 3+1 just kinda force their way to the top regardless, especially with Mahomes, Kelce and Hopkins gone. Kamara is the most likely of the elite RB to play extra games, IMO, and barring circumstance has a reasonable opportunity to win his position, so select and move on to what's left at pick 27...

2.11: Hilton - Circumstance. On Friday, August 09 at 11:47:15 am ET, I had the Colts going to the AFC Championship Game. Now, not so much. This was still BPA with extra games territory, so no defined strategy yet. I'm a Brissett guy, so I'm not totally creamed here, IMO, but I reduced my rankings/tiers/projections by a safe 20% for Colts Passing Offense, so we'll see what I get out of Hilton. Extra games in doubt, but not entirely out of the question if Brissett is a capable fill in and the OLine and Defense can do their jobs.

3.06: Ebron - Snakebitten by circumstance again. Can't remember if I was hoping someone from the 10 picks between my 2 would fall, but I know I wanted more Colts at the time. I know the TD rate from 2018 is likely unsustainable, but much of the offense runs through the TE position, and if I remember correctly I was thinking about getting Doyle cheap later to snare all of it. Still high on the Colts playing 2+ extra games as of Saturday, August 10 12:15:41 pm ET. Not so much now, and I think Ebron's value has declined and Doyle's has gone up with the QB change.

4.11: Jeffery - #1 WR on one of my projected NFC Champ Game participants. Pretty sure that's all I thought about when I made this pick. Doesn't look like I was hoping anything would fall that didn't.

5.06: Goedert - Doyle went at 5.05, which surprised me, but probably better now that circumstances prevailed. I wouldn't have taken him at 5.06, though but with him as a later TE target going, I pivoted to Goedert, which at that point gave me Kamara, Hilton/Ebron and Jeffery/Goedert. IIRC, plan starting to come together. Not sure I remember what plan was, but looks like I was working in some sort of direction.

6,11: Miles Sanders - Trying to get as much production out of my projected Championship Game competitors, and most of the more productive Steelers and Rams were gone at this point. Better area to take an RB in this Draft, and as I had hoped at the time, he's begun to assert himself, which is what needs to happen for the Eagles to play extras. Added bonus: Nittany Lion alum!

7.06: Marquez V-S - Working from memory, I'm fairly certain I was hoping QB Eagles would fall to me here. Guess I did not think highly enough of Goff or Big Ben at this point, to take either of them and continue to collect as many value Colts/Steelers/Rams/Eagles as I could. That would bite me right in the keester (see below). Should have seen it coming, and gambled, given this was my 'long' end of the wait. Well, I'm a Geronimo guy. A BIG Geronimo guy...and this was probably about the time that I conceded that MV-S had locked down the other outside WR spot in GB and Allison was going to be the new Cobb, which probably means coming off the field in 2TE sets. Rodgers can support 2, maybe 3 WR if he's all that, and I'm betting he is for 2019. This was a bet that MV-S will more likely statistically be the #2, or that his role will produce the TD's necessary to offset Rodgers peppering Allison between the 20's. At least I predict the Pack to either win the NNorth, or be a WC Team, so there's that.

8.11: Dak - Ah, the QB Round...Rams, Saints, Patriots, Bucs, Seahawks, Vikings, Panthers, Chargers, Steelers, Bears. OOOF...

...and I get sucked right in, scrounging for Prescott just in case I get further behind that 8-ball over the next 10 selections. Feel like a putz, but at least Cowboys are a projected WC.

9.06: Peyton Barber - I'm trying to figure out what I was thinking here. I mean, on one level, I know, but...

...probably a fair place to stop. Will pick up soon when time permits.

 

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On 8/22/2019 at 11:05 PM, Just Win Baby said:

This is not meaningful, but perhaps interesting. Here is the DD view of the rosters, with projections updated tonight:


3030.7	Just Win Baby
2921.9	Coordinator
2904.4	Anarchy99
2873.8	Norseman
2854.9	Biabreakable
2790.6	Reaper
2785.2	rzrback77
2775.8	nittanylion
2768.5	BroncoFreak 2K3
2737.3	Stinkin' Ref
2734.3	JeremyX13
2722.9	Duckboy
2710.2	Ben & Jerry's
2656.8	CalBear
2635.5	Pigskin Fanatic
2564.2	Firstseason 1988

Caveats:

  1. These are default FBG projections, no modifications, in DD Classic. I'm sure many of you have different views on many players.
  2. For QB, I drafted every individual QB onto the teams in accordance with TMQB selections to make up the TMQB projections.
  3. Obviously, these projections do not account for playoff points.
  4. Obviously, these projections do not account for injuries or final roster cuts, which will make a huge impact.

Update to latest projections:

2995	Just Win Baby
2897	Biabreakable
2860.6	Reaper
2859.1	Anarchy99
2781	BroncoFreak 2K3
2732	Norseman
2720.6	Stinkin' Ref
2691.5	Duckboy
2690.7	JeremyX13
2672.9	rzrback77
2670.4	nittanylion
2658.6	Coordinator
2630.9	Pigskin Fanatic
2630.9	Ben & Jerry's
2532.4	Firstseason 1988
2526.5	CalBear

Coordinator took a dive, with both Lamar Miller and Graham Gano lost for the season.

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