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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (16 Viewers)

Fact is we are on a 4-5 day downtrend towards exponential growth with the three biggest extra-china hotspots (Italy, SK, Singapore) and even taking into account the damn cruise ship in Japan the trend towards the exponent is broken.  

If you don't believe China data, fine, but they are also trending the right direction.  

This says with tight control measures, you CAN get a handle on this locally, and you can slow the spread globally.  Prepare to be told to hole up, or prepare to do this yourself.  The world isn't ending.  We will move on.

 
-fish- said:
The problem is that as this thing ramps up, more people are entering this thread.   It will be harder to filter signal from noise.    Those of us that have been following the whole time understand that this is harmful disinformation, but it really should be removed.    @Joe Bryant should be more concerned with posters like this spreading disinformation than an accurate thread title or a few jokes about hippos.
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I don't think we should just consider it disinformation.  Some people legitimately haven't been plugged into sources that give accurate info, so they come in with what they've heard and it's reasonable to expect that at any given moment a lot of folks haven't heard an opposing view on how this differs from the flu.

What I'd suggest we do is just have a standard form response we can copy and paste, and leave it at that.

There's an xkcd comic that somewhat refers to this situation as well: Ten Thousand

So perhaps, if it's not someone trolling or someone continually repeating the same thing despite having better information, then perhaps they're just one of the 10,000 people who are learning about this different way to see the situation.

 
Weebs210 said:
So continue as usual and hope for the best eh? Obviously if Houston starts getting cases I may drive myself.
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Other than adding some items to my earthquake kit, I'm not doing anything different.  I'll be flying several times between now and July, and have no plans of cancelling.   But if the time comes to hunker down, I'm set up to not leave my house for a month or so.   

 
adonis said:
I don't think we should just consider it disinformation.  Some people legitimately haven't been plugged into sources that give accurate info, so they come in with what they've heard and it's reasonable to expect that at any given moment a lot of folks haven't heard an opposing view on how this differs from the flu.

What I'd suggest we do is just have a standard form response we can copy and paste, and leave it at that.

There's an xkcd comic that somewhat refers to this situation as well: Ten Thousand

So perhaps, if it's not someone trolling or someone continually repeating the same thing despite having better information, then perhaps they're just one of the 10,000 people who are learning about this different way to see the situation.
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Unfortunately, there is an ongoing disinformation campaign with a political agenda.   I don't want this thread getting moved to the PSF, but the idea that this virus is the same as the flu or the common cold isn't just a misunderstanding...it is a falsehood that is being actively spread.   

 
-fish- said:
Doug B said:
Something else: will it ever get to the point in the U.S. where people have to be wearing a mask to go to the grocery and drugstore, etc.?
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If it continues on its current trajectory, yes.
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What I meant was "Will it ever get to the point that public places in the U.S. like groceries, drugstores, big-box stores, movie theaters, etc. require masks worn to be allowed entry?" Apologies for not being clearer.

 
-fish- said:
If it continues on its current trajectory, yes.    There are credible sources estimating that 60-70% of the world's population will be infected.
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If the latter bears out over a shortish period of time (say, 6 months) ... then aren't containment efforts a waste of time and resources?

 
culdeus said:
Thinking out loud here.

  • Situation: Family sheltering in place, someone gets sick.  3 others are healthy.
  • To provide care to a child that's going to take some direct interaction.  (It's highly likely the caretaker gets it)
  • You are going to need to have a secondary quarantine for the caretaker, can't assume you can simply mask up and not get it (See: Wuhan)
  • This person should be considered carefully.  Ideally most healthy <50 person.  
  • Once the child or person has cleared the virus the caretaker takes the quarantine spot.
  • Care seems at this time needs to be taken to watch for exposure post recovery, it seems at least 7 days of post recovery isolation is suggested and perhaps 14 days of constant mask wear post recovery is advised.  
  • Quarantine and recovery locations can and likely should be outdoors.  Outdoor locations may in fact be ideal to kill droplets
  • If you have someone 60+ or compromised in the house while dealing with this, some thought should be made to moving them outside the same airflow zone.  Tape off vents and use windows.  etc.
poke holes
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I think you've got a good point about the caretaker.  Only hole I can poke in your plan is having the sick sleep in a tent.  Cool, moist air could make things worse - make this transition into pneumonia

My home-quarantine plan (assuming hospital isn't required): I have a finished basement with two empty bedrooms, it's own bathroom with shower, it's own entrance (walk-out basement), and it's own HVAC.  The basement also has a comfortable couch, 55" TV, X-box, PC, mini-fridge and a microwave  (also, a heck of a lot of beer, brewing equipment, and industrial sink but that's for another topic). 

Should anyone get sick, they will go in the basement until better.  If it's one of my kids, I'd assume either me or my wife would be the designated caretaker, and would be monitored.  Moving to-from the basement could be done by walking around the house, setting up the garage as a strip-down place - change clothes there and remove PPE, basement clothes are immediately bagged and washed.

PPE: disposable gloves for sure.  Mask if available.  If not, I'd think something like this would be better than nothing.  Obviously, it wouldn't catch anything airborne, but would keep you from getting sneezed on.

Here's the deal: I have two kids, elementary and middle-school aged.  I will not be pulling them from school;  homeschooling is not an option.  If this is out there, odds of one of us catching something is fairly high, I think.  I have asthma and my wife has high blood pressure - we probably would both be considered high risk.  If someone came down with the funk, we really should do everything possible to prevent both parents from getting sick.

 
moleculo said:
I think you've got a good point about the caretaker.  Only hole I can poke in your plan is having the sick sleep in a tent.  Cool, moist air could make things worse - make this transition into pneumonia

My home-quarantine plan (assuming hospital isn't required): I have a finished basement with two empty bedrooms, it's own bathroom with shower, it's own entrance (walk-out basement), and it's own HVAC.  The basement also has a comfortable couch, 55" TV, X-box, PC, mini-fridge and a microwave  (also, a heck of a lot of beer, brewing equipment, and industrial sink but that's for another topic). 

Should anyone get sick, they will go in the basement until better.  If it's one of my kids, I'd assume either me or my wife would be the designated caretaker, and would be monitored.  Moving to-from the basement could be done by walking around the house, setting up the garage as a strip-down place - change clothes there and remove PPE, basement clothes are immediately bagged and washed.

PPE: disposable gloves for sure.  Mask if available.  If not, I'd think something like this would be better than nothing.  Obviously, it wouldn't catch anything airborne, but would keep you from getting sneezed on.

Here's the deal: I have two kids, elementary and middle-school aged.  I will not be pulling them from school;  homeschooling is not an option.  If this is out there, odds of one of us catching something is fairly high, I think.  I have asthma and my wife has high blood pressure - we probably would both be considered high risk.  If someone came down with the funk, we really should do everything possible to prevent both parents from getting sick.
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I think I would put the caretaker in the tent, will edit.

 
msommer said:
I probably have suppplies (beer) for about 2-3 weeks ;)  
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I have 9 taps in my house that are in various stages of fullness with 6 kegs full kegs waiting and  another beer in a 1/2 Bbl batch in a fermenter that needs to be kegged in the next 2 weeks.  I have about 250-300 lbs of grains so I could brew at least another 10 kegs.   My fridge has about 3-4 cases of beer and I have another 2-3 cases in my beer cellar.

I should be good for a few weeks too.

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
If we had a remotely accurate fatality count—this thing has already killed far more than the flu has.
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So basically ... you believe that the coronavirus is generally being under-reported to a degree of what? 250 to 1?

Are your personally-believed figures more like 20 million infected worldwide, with over 690,000 deaths right now? Do you have anything more to go on than a hunch? I think most of us can buy heavy under-reporting ... but when you posit more raw counting numbers than the flu (not rates), you gotta have something to base that on.

 
Doug B said:
What I meant was "Will it ever get to the point that public places in the U.S. like groceries, drugstores, big-box stores, movie theaters, etc. require masks worn to be allowed entry?" Apologies for not being clearer.
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That's what I thought you meant, and my thought is that if it continues on its current trajectory, the answer is yes.   We will reach a tipping point where the CDC will recommend wearing masks, suspending non-essential travel, etc.  

 
culdeus said:
Thinking out loud here.

  • Situation: Family sheltering in place, someone gets sick.  3 others are healthy.
  • To provide care to a child that's going to take some direct interaction.  (It's highly likely the caretaker gets it)
  • You are going to need to have a secondary quarantine for the caretaker, can't assume you can simply mask up and not get it (See: Wuhan)
  • This person should be considered carefully.  Ideally most healthy <50 person.  
  • Once the child or person has cleared the virus the caretaker takes the quarantine spot.
  • Care seems at this time needs to be taken to watch for exposure post recovery, it seems at least 7 days of post recovery isolation is suggested and perhaps 14 days of constant mask wear post recovery is advised.  
  • Quarantine and recovery locations can and likely should be outdoors.  Outdoor locations may in fact be ideal to kill droplets
  • If you have someone 60+ or compromised in the house while dealing with this, some thought should be made to moving them outside the same airflow zone.  Tape off vents and use windows.  etc.
poke holes
Click to expand...
The biggest problem that I see is if someone gets seriously sick and it becomes obvious they aren't getting better without professional medical assistance.  At that point someone is going to have to break ranks and take them to a hospital and risk further contamination.  

 
moleculo said:
no.  If you can slow it down, the mdeical infrastructure has a chance at keeping up. 
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:goodposting:  

Also we've got an unknown shot of existing anti-viral drugs being helpful in combating this. i know a few are entering trials. The problem is, trials + Manufacturing means we've still got quite a runway. 

We're not stopping it. Buying time is good. Also, this isn't doomsday...we'll be fine. Just might get a little weird for a bit. 

 
Godsbrother said:
I have 9 taps in my house that are in various stages of fullness with 6 kegs full kegs waiting and  another beer in a 1/2 Bbl batch in a fermenter that needs to be kegged in the next 2 weeks.  I have about 250-300 lbs of grains so I could brew at least another 10 kegs.   My fridge has about 3-4 cases of beer and I have another 2-3 cases in my beer cellar.

I should be good for a few weeks too.
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:lol:   :tebow:

 
moleculo said:
Here's the deal: I have two kids, elementary and middle-school aged.  I will not be pulling them from school;  homeschooling is not an option.  If this is out there, odds of one of us catching something is fairly high, I think.  I have asthma and my wife has high blood pressure - we probably would both be considered high risk.  If someone came down with the funk, we really should do everything possible to prevent both parents from getting sick.
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CDC is already discussing contingency plans for school via internet, etc.

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Well timed levity my a**.   From the beginning of this thread i’ve warned people about the seriousness of this thing—told people that it was in absolutely poor taste to joke around about a virus that has almost certainly killed tens of thousands of people—and I got chastised for it by a bunch of people who think its cool to make dooshy comments about hoards of people dying.  I’m all for good humor and jokes—but joking, laughing and being dismissive about people dying by the masses is disgusting. Defending that type of humor is just as bad.  
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Settle down.  ER docs and nurses even joke every once in a while.  Its called gallows humor for a reason and its a human nature coping mechanism when dealing with a stressful situation.  I for one, welcome the brief, harmless levity of a Richard Nixon mask link and an occasional Busta Rhymes reference.  WOO-HAN!

 
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[icon] said:
Godsbrother said:
I have 9 taps in my house that are in various stages of fullness with 6 kegs full kegs waiting and  another beer in a 1/2 Bbl batch in a fermenter that needs to be kegged in the next 2 weeks.  I have about 250-300 lbs of grains so I could brew at least another 10 kegs.   My fridge has about 3-4 cases of beer and I have another 2-3 cases in my beer cellar.

I should be good for a few weeks too.
Click to expand...
:lol:   :tebow:
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(Icon formulating new bug-out plan ... "Sorry, 9,000-sqft-house guy -- I've made other accomodations :suds: ")

 
-fish- said:
CDC is already discussing contingency plans for school via internet, etc.
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Around here, there are about two weeks of extra days built into the school calendar called "hurricane days". They're intended to keep hurricane evacuations from impacting the school year, but perhaps school could be called off for two weeks for coronavirus. Not sure two weeks is enough, though.

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Well timed levity my a**.   From the beginning of this thread i’ve warned people about the seriousness of this thing—told people that it was in absolutely poor taste to joke around about a virus that has almost certainly killed tens of thousands of people—and I got chastised for it by a bunch of people who think its cool to make dooshy comments about hoards of people dying.  I’m all for good humor and jokes—but joking, laughing and being dismissive about people dying by the masses is disgusting. Defending that type of humor is just as bad.  
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Your interactions with those accusing you of fear-mongering are an outlier. I'm referring to people recommending Nixon masks and the like. There was nothing funny about those 2 or 3 people that were being difficult with you. 

 
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Doug B said:
Around here, there are about two weeks of extra days built into the school calendar called "hurricane days". They're intended to keep hurricane evacuations from impacting the school year, but perhaps school could be called off for two weeks for coronavirus. Not sure two weeks is enough, though.
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incubation period is 15 days. maybe two weeks on either side of Spring/Easter break.

 
Godsbrother said:
I have 9 taps in my house that are in various stages of fullness with 6 kegs full kegs waiting and  another beer in a 1/2 Bbl batch in a fermenter that needs to be kegged in the next 2 weeks.  I have about 250-300 lbs of grains so I could brew at least another 10 kegs.   My fridge has about 3-4 cases of beer and I have another 2-3 cases in my beer cellar.

I should be good for a few weeks too.
Click to expand...
Also - if brewing low alcohol beers you don't need to worry too much about storing water!

Double also - don't forget to stop up on hops and perhaps even identifying hop plants near you. If society collapses, those IPAs will be hard to come by!

 
I need to buy a couple airline tickets for a domestic flight at the end of may.  Tickets are pretty cheap right now.  What are the odds that the tickets drop more as we get closer due to fears of this?  

My wife is not concerned about this stuff yet, but being an irrational germophobe to begin with, I can't help but keep popping into this thread to read the news on this.   :bag:

 
top dog said:
I need to buy a couple airline tickets for a domestic flight at the end of may.  Tickets are pretty cheap right now.  What are the odds that the tickets drop more as we get closer due to fears of this?  

My wife is not concerned about this stuff yet, but being an irrational germophobe to begin with, I can't help but keep popping into this thread to read the news on this.   :bag:
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Tickets are cheap because jet fuel is on a fire sale.

 
It's also possible that some of the people have been following the reports, know that it has been going around since mid December, don't trust the statistics coming from a third world country nor trust their medical systems, have heard the same fearmongering done every few years over other diseases that crop up, and truly believe that there is a 99.x% chance that it will not have any effect on him outside of someone getting a baddish case of the flu.

I will likely buy some masks and extra water on the outside chance this is a legit world changing event, but I'm not building a shelter or making a non-negative ventilated room out of duct tape and shower curtains with water and air coming in unfiltered and think it's going to quarantine someone.

I'll also make some jokes about extreme reactions to it.  Maybe some people should just be proactive and start hiding out in their shelters today.  At the very least you can protect yourself from humor.

 
culdeus said:
Tickets are cheap because jet fuel is on a fire sale.
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So buy now?  Dammit.  There is a little voice in the back of my head telling me to hold off in case this blows up between now and then.  I'm already horrified by airplanes and germs.  I might not be able to get on if things are getting crazy out there.

 
top dog said:
So buy now?  Dammit.  There is a little voice in the back of my head telling me to hold off in case this blows up between now and then.  I'm already horrified by airplanes and germs.  I might not be able to get on if things are getting crazy out there.
Click to expand...
How much do you really think they might come down? If the market is already crappy, are we talking a difference of tens of dollars? Is that worth the stress of not having tickets in hand, and/or dealing with the wife pestering you to buy the tix?

 
Doug B said:
I've used these during sanding walls (paint prep), cleaning mold, etc. They hold up ... I can get several wears from one.

For coronavirus use ... how often would these have to be discarded and replaced by a healthy person? Upon return home after every trip outside of the house? Or can one last all day through multiple in-and-outs, and just use a new one in the morning?
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that i have ZERO idea

 
Doug B said:
If the latter bears out over a shortish period of time (say, 6 months) ... then aren't containment efforts a waste of time and resources?
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I’d say no, because the more they can draw it out, the better chance for medicine/vaccine/treatments to catch up. 

 
Doug B said:
Around here, there are about two weeks of extra days built into the school calendar called "hurricane days". They're intended to keep hurricane evacuations from impacting the school year, but perhaps school could be called off for two weeks for coronavirus. Not sure two weeks is enough, though.
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Yeah, we have built in snow days even though we only get significant snow about once every 5-10 years.   I haven't seen any models about what happens in a worst case scenario.

Say we lose containment.   It spreads throughout the US.   There's a wave of people that get it, and the quarantine centers kick in.   People are advised to suspend travel and stay home, mostly so the health care system doesn't get completely overwhelmed.   At some point, we're just accepting that we have a new respiratory virus that's just permanently circulating in the human population.    Are we waiting for a vaccine to be developed to lift travel and contact restrictions?   Are we just waiting for the health care system to cycle the first wave through?  How long is the anticipated disruption?

 
-fish- said:
At some point, we're just accepting that we have a new respiratory virus that's just permanently circulating in the human population.    Are we waiting for a vaccine to be developed to lift travel and contact restrictions?   Are we just waiting for the health care system to cycle the first wave through?  How long is the anticipated disruption?
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I honestly think that in societies where there is a relatively high level of distrust in the centralized government (such as the US) it will be a lot harder to contain any pandemic - with the exception of outright dictatorships that much sooner will go from voluntary to mandatory restrictions (LEO/military enforced)

 
here is a question I can't seem to get an answer on.

They say it incubates anywhere from 2-14 days....

If after the 14 days - if you have it are you no longer contagious?  You have to be quarantined indefinitely?  

I dont understand the 2 week timeline that keeps getting thrown around

 
[icon] said:
Speaking as someone who's worn them before, this is not true. You certainly know it's there, but to call them extremely uncomfortable is, IMO, incorrect. 
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You must have a high tolerance. They suck. IMO as far as fitting goes, if they're NOT uncomfortable, then you're probably wearing it wrong. I couldn't imagine having to spend hours at a time, or an entire day in one.

 
culdeus said:
On reddit they had someone say that steaming the masks is a last resort if you can't get more.  Use a propane burner outside with a steamer basket so you don't just blast your house with coronasteam(tm)
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Coronasteam? At 212F, that steam would be full of dead viruses.

Still curious how the masks would turn out after 10 minutes in a 200- to 250-degree oven. Probably not good for any elastic going around the ears, but I really don't know.

@Terminalxylem wrote that some kind of masks (assuming earloop masks) degrade simply from breath moisture. I don't know if there are better masks (more robust, re-usable ones?) out there or not.

 
-fish- said:
Yeah, we have built in snow days even though we only get significant snow about once every 5-10 years.   I haven't seen any models about what happens in a worst case scenario.

Say we lose containment.   It spreads throughout the US.   There's a wave of people that get it, and the quarantine centers kick in.   People are advised to suspend travel and stay home, mostly so the health care system doesn't get completely overwhelmed.   At some point, we're just accepting that we have a new respiratory virus that's just permanently circulating in the human population.    Are we waiting for a vaccine to be developed to lift travel and contact restrictions?   Are we just waiting for the health care system to cycle the first wave through?  How long is the anticipated disruption?
Click to expand...
Until the vax is proven and out.  I would say until the end of next year if you use prior COV vax scheduling.

 
Los Angeles has a reported case. Flight attendant from Korean Air.

https://abc7.com/5968126
 

I guess she made it BACK to Korea but had spent time in LA. There could be some cases popping up if she managed to infect anyone...

 
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ShamrockPride said:
You must have a high tolerance. They suck. IMO as far as fitting goes, if they're NOT uncomfortable, then you're probably wearing it wrong. I couldn't imagine having to spend hours at a time, or an entire day in one.
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I wore one for several hours at a time two years ago due to wildfires. There are reusable ones that are designed for activities like running, etc.   They aren't that bad at all.

 
belljr said:
here is a question I can't seem to get an answer on.

They say it incubates anywhere from 2-14 days....

If after the 14 days - if you have it are you no longer contagious?  You have to be quarantined indefinitely?  

I dont understand the 2 week timeline that keeps getting thrown around
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There's a lot we don't know.  Be careful about these statistics as we are still in early stages and the test kits have some error.  

There is nothing wrong with assuming the worst about re-infection now and we can look at walking back that stuff at a later date.

 
ShamrockPride said:
You must have a high tolerance. They suck. IMO as far as fitting goes, if they're NOT uncomfortable, then you're probably wearing it wrong. I couldn't imagine having to spend hours at a time, or an entire day in one.
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Not a fan, either. I can work in one for ... I don't know ... 45 minutes to an hour? More typically, I take breaks every so often ... 15-20 minutes? But that's doing work in one specific spot inside the house, and I can go into another room and be fine breathing in the air.

 
Doug B said:
So basically ... you believe that the coronavirus is generally being under-reported to a degree of what? 250 to 1?

Are your personally-believed figures more like 20 million infected worldwide, with over 690,000 deaths right now? Do you have anything more to go on than a hunch? I think most of us can buy heavy under-reporting ... but when you posit more raw counting numbers than the flu (not rates), you gotta have something to base that on.
Click to expand...
No—i have never guessed accurate numbers—but if you read through the entire thread—i’ve clearly stated that the magnitude of the crisis and fatality count in China can more accurately be assessed through their own actions of trying to contain the disease Moreno than their released counts.  I’ve been mocked for repeating myself in this thread—so I’d just politely ask you to read through it from the beginning.

 
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