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Scared to ask but don't have anywhere else - Clay Travis Article? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Joe Bryant
- Start date
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Good to see you Joe, like you out in front leading a thread on the CV-19 and some possible good news if this crests.
I would not be as optimistic because a lot of big cities are still letting most folks mingle about. I was at my usual bar and grill today and while there was every other seat empty, the place was largely a ghost town.
I don't believe we will see the high point for still a few more weeks. Did millions of test kits suddenly become available? I think there are likely hundreds of thousands walking about who don't even know they have it.
In Wuhan, something like 5 Million came and went before China admitted they had any problem and so with all those folks getting a 2-4 week head start it seems logical that there are way more walking about in the United States than we currently have identified.
I would be super cautious in thinking next week will be the absolute worst of it. I'm not sure I would be rushing to buy stocks just yet. We are going to be in a recession for a while. Too many folks out of work and bailouts are going to bankrupt us for a while.
One last bit of "Inside Info", my long time pizzeria is run by real Italians that travel back and forth to Italy and have family there...no they have not traveled there in the last few month BUT they call every night and the stories I heard were awful frightening and they seem to have this sound of fear in their voices. He said with a strong conviction he expects things to get much much worse here and there still are NOT enough measures being taken to control it. Do I agree with him? It's hard to argue with someone who is on the horn every day with people there and hearing horror story after horror story. They aren't allowing people 65-70 and older into their ICUs.
Cheers JB
I would not be as optimistic because a lot of big cities are still letting most folks mingle about. I was at my usual bar and grill today and while there was every other seat empty, the place was largely a ghost town.
I don't believe we will see the high point for still a few more weeks. Did millions of test kits suddenly become available? I think there are likely hundreds of thousands walking about who don't even know they have it.
In Wuhan, something like 5 Million came and went before China admitted they had any problem and so with all those folks getting a 2-4 week head start it seems logical that there are way more walking about in the United States than we currently have identified.
I would be super cautious in thinking next week will be the absolute worst of it. I'm not sure I would be rushing to buy stocks just yet. We are going to be in a recession for a while. Too many folks out of work and bailouts are going to bankrupt us for a while.
One last bit of "Inside Info", my long time pizzeria is run by real Italians that travel back and forth to Italy and have family there...no they have not traveled there in the last few month BUT they call every night and the stories I heard were awful frightening and they seem to have this sound of fear in their voices. He said with a strong conviction he expects things to get much much worse here and there still are NOT enough measures being taken to control it. Do I agree with him? It's hard to argue with someone who is on the horn every day with people there and hearing horror story after horror story. They aren't allowing people 65-70 and older into their ICUs.
Cheers JB
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mr. furley
Footballguy
totally speculating here, but people tend to follow the herd.
was talking to my barber about this sort of scenario and he said "eh, it was just a cold or something.. nothing to worry about" even though he thought it might be pneumonia and it dragged on for a couple weeks.
he said if had the same symptoms now he'd for sure go check in with doctors and try to get tested.
and i think to myself, that's kind of how men are. we just sort of ride things out and hope they go away. it's only when the wife gives us enough grief that we go get checked. my idiot brother in law kept showing up at family functions looking haggard, sweating, complaining about this pain or that. sometimes groaning, almost shrieking, when standing up. he kept writing it off as no big deal... his wife would nag at him to get it checked & tell us how stubborn he was for not.
dude went to work one day, tried to stand and (according to what his co-workers told him) shrieked and went down in a heap.
woke up in the hospital where they found he had cancer that had grown so much it burst through his small intestine. which... my god.. had to be ####### excruciating. but he didn't go to the doctor because "someone has to do the work".
we chatted about it at Christmas and he told me how he had been in just mind-bending pain for months, but he didn't want to find out what it was because he was afraid of the loss of income.
msommer
Footballguy
Dude, people are getting hospitalized when that can't breathe for themselves. I'm sure they didn't notice 'cause no one said "Coronavirus"
mr. furley
Footballguy
probably right
eta: apple prose of nothing, several years ago i went to the urgent care because i literally could not get a satisfying breath. my throat was swollen shut. i was gulping and gasping trying to breathe.
they gave me vicodin and sent me home
wtf
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
2,000 cases last Friday
4,000+ this past Monday
6,000+ by Tuesday
Well over 8,500+ today being reported and these numbers seem to be increasing as more people are being tested.
I am actually reading 9,300+ as we get closer to the end of the day and 153 Deaths confirmed. On March 1st we had 1 that had died, two and half weeks later we are at 153.
It would be great if this could be minimized here in the States but so far it doesn't seem like we have control over it yet.
4,000+ this past Monday
6,000+ by Tuesday
Well over 8,500+ today being reported and these numbers seem to be increasing as more people are being tested.
I am actually reading 9,300+ as we get closer to the end of the day and 153 Deaths confirmed. On March 1st we had 1 that had died, two and half weeks later we are at 153.
It would be great if this could be minimized here in the States but so far it doesn't seem like we have control over it yet.
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Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
I have no idea who he is either. I pray he is somewhat rightIt probably helps if you don't know who he is.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I don’t know, this chart/graph sure doesn’t look like many curves are flattening to me. It looks like China and South Korea and that’s it. And as stated by others, South Korea started testing tons of people way earlier which we are long past, and China put in place draconian isolation measures that will never fly here (and frankly I’m not sure I buy their current numbers).
Obviously I hope he’s right, but I have strong doubts.
Obviously I hope he’s right, but I have strong doubts.
JaxBill
Footballguy
The number of total cases will continue to escalate because the length of time for recovery is so long.
That said, I don't expect the US number for NEW cases to level off for at least 10 - 14 days.
Here's why
- we're still catching up on testing. We had so many actual mild cases that weren't diagnosed.
- People are still half assing it. It will take another week for the Spring Breakers to go home and spread the disease.
- the delayed nature of the symptoms. See first point about testing. If people are showing positive this morning, they probably exposed somebody else who might take 5 to 10 days to show symptoms.
ETA - and 10 to 14 days might be optimistic depending on further measures and the public's patience.
That said, I don't expect the US number for NEW cases to level off for at least 10 - 14 days.
Here's why
- we're still catching up on testing. We had so many actual mild cases that weren't diagnosed.
- People are still half assing it. It will take another week for the Spring Breakers to go home and spread the disease.
- the delayed nature of the symptoms. See first point about testing. If people are showing positive this morning, they probably exposed somebody else who might take 5 to 10 days to show symptoms.
ETA - and 10 to 14 days might be optimistic depending on further measures and the public's patience.
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AAABatteries
Footballguy
As with most things in life there is not a black or white answer. The answer is nuanced and in a nuanced discussion where tens of thousands or more lives are at risk I’m willing to be overly cautious. If he is closer to being right than the people calling for full quarantine then would should see that in 1-2 weeks. I’m not optimistic for reasons that others have stated - to me the whole issue hinges on us not overwhelming our healthcare system. As long as we manage to do that reasonably well then the vast majority of us will be fine. And as many people have said, the absolute best way to do that is to stay home and distance yourself from everyone.
I wish I understood why this keeps being dismissed as overblown due to the media fear mongering, or leaders succumbing to social pressure, or governors trying to one up each other, etc. I have been trying to stick with just getting my information from experts. I listened to Joe Rogan interview Michael Osterholm, Sam Harris with Amesh Adalja, read the Imperial College report, read the summary of the UCSF panel, and all of that has left me sufficiently concerned. I'm not watching cable news, I'm not looking to be entertained by this, I want data and expert opinions. Those experts point to a damn serious situation that requires me being willing to sacrifice to do my part in minimizing it. That's enough for me.
When I want Fantasy Football info, I go to the experts, and listen to FBG's. When I want financial guidance, I go to and listen to financial experts. When I want to know how to react to a global pandemic, I go to the experts and listen to what they suggest. Perhaps I'm too simple, but it seems to get me through my day to day.
So, I don't know who Clay Travis is, but as he clearly laid out in the beginning of his piece here, he's not an epidemiologist, or an infectious disease expert, so while I appreciate his effort, I"ll continue listening to experts in the field I am concerned with.
When I want Fantasy Football info, I go to the experts, and listen to FBG's. When I want financial guidance, I go to and listen to financial experts. When I want to know how to react to a global pandemic, I go to the experts and listen to what they suggest. Perhaps I'm too simple, but it seems to get me through my day to day.
So, I don't know who Clay Travis is, but as he clearly laid out in the beginning of his piece here, he's not an epidemiologist, or an infectious disease expert, so while I appreciate his effort, I"ll continue listening to experts in the field I am concerned with.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
So hard to gauge because when we get daily numbers they represent the past, not the present. If we make a big change today, it won’t show up in the stats for another week.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Excellent point.
-I am engaging in some activities where I am worried I could simply be a carrier and a jeopardy to my Senior Friends. I play Tennis 3x a week and sometimes more. A lot of the Tennis community is 55+, 65+ and I've suggested we all carry our own can of balls to serve with.
-5 out of 6 folks who get this Virus are unaware the person they got it from has the CV-19 and that's what is scary.
-I ate in a public bar/grill yesterday, starting to think I might be taking a huge risk eating out of the house, even straight pick up at a restaurant could still be risky. But we have been out of chicken for days at my grocery store and I wanted a hot meal. That and I wanted a draft beer since they closed the bars down. If you don't have a kitchen or serve food you are shut down right now in Florida.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
You are definitely being a hell of a lot more adventurous than anyone I know. I’m only 37 and most of my friend are similar age or a bit younger and we aren’t going anywhere except for the massive grocery runs or getting a prescription from the drug store. I’m thinking of going to my favorite brewery today as you can order curbside beer pickup online. I’m going to rub those cans/bottles down with a Clorox wipe right away though.
Tick
Footballguy
Everything points to us being on the Italy path. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#trajectories-since-the-100th-confirmed-case is a good visual for this.Joe Bryant said:
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Sharing without comment (written by another fellow former poster at GWhoops.com)...
The Ballad of Clay Travis
The Ballad of Clay Travis
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General Malaise
Footballguy
Never heard of this guy. Sounds like I'm better off for it. What a mountebank.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
At one point in the distant past, Clay Travis was able to write a semi-cogent defense of college amateurism, not an easy task in light of its many inherent failings. But a few years ago he discovered that his popularity increased dramatically when he voiced support for various right wing grievances and decided to embark on the always profitable path of Fox-like performance art, playing mostly to the bros who wanted their country and their sports unchanged.
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