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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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3 hours ago, bradyfan said:
Quote

He added, “The difference is our journalists in China are actually journalists.”

(Comment withheld as it would detract from thread.) <_< 

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Sounds like everything related to Diamond Princess was a goat rodeo, with 500 people sent into the wild to potentially spread the virus. Apparently, a taxi driver who had contact with passengers when the ship was docked in Okinawa February 1 has it and is seriously ill. Appears to be on the longer end of the incubation spectrum.

As an Austinite, I’m not particularly thrilled that sxsw is coming up March 13-23. Looked at last year’s economic report. 49% of the 100k attendees come in from other states. 26% are international. It’s one of the world’s biggest Internet festivals, and the music and film tracks draw attendees from everywhere.

Will see how things progress over next couple weeks, but if you’ve ever been in town for one of these, it’s all about big crowds in tight spaces, small venues, lots of Ubering about. I’d prefer we don’t invite that level of international co-mingling just yet.  

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19 hours ago, Doug B said:

Aside from China and the cruise ship Diamond Princess docked off of Yokohoma, here are the rest-of-the-world totals to date:

(15 new cases today)
457 total cases Feb 18, 2020
(minus 160 patients recovered to date)
297 total active cases Feb 18, 2020

20 seriously/critically ill patients
5 deaths

...

To derive these numbers, I turned the chart here into an Excel sheet, then excluded the first two rows.

...

Same data with all of East Asia removed (Nepal's one recovered case left in):

(0 new cases today)
100 total cases Feb 18, 2020
(minus 52 patients recovered to date)
48 total active cases Feb 18, 2020

3 seriously/critically ill patients
1 death

That one death was a Chinese vacationer in France who contracted the virus at home before traveling.

Thought I'd update the numbers above. IMHO, the picture is a lot clearer with China and the Diamond Princess cruise ship removed.


Rest-of-the-world totals to date (excluding China and the cruise ship Diamond Princess docked off of Yokohoma):

(37 new cases today)
494 total cases Feb 19, 2020
(minus 183 patients recovered to date)
311 total active cases Feb 19, 2020

19 seriously/critically ill patients
8 deaths (+2 Iran, +1 Hong Kong)


Same data with all of East Asia removed (Nepal's one recovered case left in):

(2 new cases today [reported by Iran, both dead])
102 total cases Feb 19, 2020
(minus 52 patients recovered to date)
(minus 2 deaths [Iran's two 'new' cases])
48 total active cases Feb 19, 2020

3 seriously/critically ill patients
3 deaths (Iran's two 'new' cases)

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5 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

Sounds like everything related to Diamond Princess was a goat rodeo, with 500 people sent into the wild to potentially spread the virus. Apparently, a taxi driver who had contact with passengers when the ship was docked in Okinawa February 1 has it and is seriously ill. Appears to be on the longer end of the incubation spectrum.

As an Austinite, I’m not particularly thrilled that sxsw is coming up March 13-23. Looked at last year’s economic report. 49% of the 100k attendees come in from other states. 26% are international. It’s one of the world’s biggest Internet festivals, and the music and film tracks draw attendees from everywhere.

Will see how things progress over next couple weeks, but if you’ve ever been in town for one of these, it’s all about big crowds in tight spaces, small venues, lots of Ubering about. I’d prefer we don’t invite that level of international co-mingling just yet.  

ugh. My plans to move 3/13-14 just took on a few magnitudes of difficulty

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Remind me where cruise ship patient zero got it. 

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13 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Remind me where cruise ship patient zero got it. 

BBC, 2/7/2020

Quote

 

Some 3,700 people are on board the Diamond Princess, which is quarantined in Yokohama for at least two weeks.

The [COVID-19] checks began after an 80-year-old Hong Kong man who had been on the ship last month fell ill with the virus.

He boarded the [Diamond Princess] in Yokohama on 20 January and disembarked in Hong Kong on 25 January.

 

 

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59 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

Sounds like everything related to Diamond Princess was a goat rodeo...

Incorporating goat rodeo into all applicable conversations going forward.

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Our 50 patient trial should start in the next week or two.  We are quietly confident that the treatment will help the victims.  :fingerscrossed:

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Up to 8 deaths outside of China.  Up 3 from yesterday. Easy to see why it’s a bit early to calculate mortality rates when so many of the new cases are very recent.  

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28 minutes ago, chet said:

Our 50 patient trial should start in the next week or two.  We are quietly confident that the treatment will help the victims.  :fingerscrossed:

Question:  Is your trial with drugs that are readily available? 

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6 minutes ago, shader said:

Question:  Is your trial with drugs that are readily available? 

Yes.  

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US CDC Situation Report - Feb-19 Update (#’s does not include passengers from Diamond Princess)

Positive: 15 - all people who have travelled to China or their close contacts
Negative: 412 
Pending: 52 
Total: 47

States with confirmed cases: 7 - Arizona, California, Illinois, Massachusetts, Texas, Washington, Wisconsin.

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34 minutes ago, shader said:

Up to 8 deaths outside of China.  Up 3 from yesterday. Easy to see why it’s a bit early to calculate mortality rates when so many of the new cases are very recent.  

Especially considering Iran didn't report their two infections at all until hours before their deaths. Too many countries willing to play the denial game.

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i'm punting on my tech conference in San Jose in two weeks.  too many people that travel back and forth to Asia regularly in too close of quarters.

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Link China completed autopsies on the first and second cases of COVID-19. 
 

Quote

Xinhua News Agency, Wuhan, February 16th (Reporters Li Wei and Hou Wenkun) Subject to the approval of national laws and policies, and with the consent of the patient's family members, the first and second cases of neocoronary pneumonia obtained from anatomy of the country were submitted for examination on the 16th. . Reporter learned from Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital that at 3 am on the 16th, the first autopsy of the new crown pneumonia in the country was completed at Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital, and the pathology of the new crown pneumonia was successfully obtained. At 18:45 on the 16th, the autopsy of the second case of neonatal pneumonia in the country was successfully completed. The anatomy and pathology of the two remains have been submitted for examination. Experts said that the pathology of new coronary pneumonia obtained from anatomy is of great help in exploring the clinical pathological changes and disease mechanisms of patients with new coronary pneumonia, and it can fundamentally explore the pathogenicity and lethality of new coronary pneumonia, and give future clinical treatment of critical illness The patient provides evidence.

 

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28 minutes ago, joffer said:

i'm punting on my tech conference in San Jose in two weeks.  too many people that travel back and forth to Asia regularly in too close of quarters.

Plenty of spores in Austin this time of year

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3 hours ago, Mr. Ham said:

Sounds like everything related to Diamond Princess was a goat rodeo, with 500 people sent into the wild to potentially spread the virus. Apparently, a taxi driver who had contact with passengers when the ship was docked in Okinawa February 1 has it and is seriously ill. Appears to be on the longer end of the incubation spectrum.

As an Austinite, I’m not particularly thrilled that sxsw is coming up March 13-23. Looked at last year’s economic report. 49% of the 100k attendees come in from other states. 26% are international. It’s one of the world’s biggest Internet festivals, and the music and film tracks draw attendees from everywhere.

Will see how things progress over next couple weeks, but if you’ve ever been in town for one of these, it’s all about big crowds in tight spaces, small venues, lots of Ubering about. I’d prefer we don’t invite that level of international co-mingling just yet.  

A heavy dose of Franklin BBQ should burn the ends off that virus pretty quick. Brisket based vaccine hopefully available by then. 

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I hope Iran had known about those two cases from early on versus finding out today after the two infected had been out in the public for weeks

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1 hour ago, TwinTurbo said:

A heavy dose of Franklin BBQ should burn the ends off that virus pretty quick. Brisket based vaccine hopefully available by then. 

Yeah, but if he contracts the virus at the beginning of the line, he'd likely keel over before he got to eat that brisket.

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5 minutes ago, encaitar said:

Yeah, but if he contracts the virus at the beginning of the line, he'd likely keel over before he got to eat that brisket.

two weeks sounds about right

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Sooo.... 

You guys remember Me talking about the team member next to my desk who went to Asia (Malaysia, unsure of flight path) for lunar new year, then was directed to self quarantine for 14 days upon return? 
 

Roll into the office today and shes there. No mask. Nothing.

I start chatting with her "Suk-Lee, aren't you supposed to be in quarantine?!" 
 

"Yes but I had onsite meeting today. I had to come in early for call then two meeting." 

(blank stare from me from ~2M away)

"I know (director name) told me 14 day, but I had meeting. She told me to wear mask after but It's hard to talk with mask" 

 

then..... she ####### coughs. :eek:

Not right at me, but close enough.
 

I kinda roll back back a couple feet, grab my computer, and walk out of the office. I'm not going back till Monday. Frankly I ####### hope I offended the #### out of her. 

This same woman came in last fall with a brutal chest cold and got our entire team sick,

Edited by [icon]
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36 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Sooo.... 

You guys remember Me talking about the team member next to my desk who went to Asia (Malaysia, unsure of flight path) for lunar new year, then was directed to self quarantine for 14 days upon return? 
 

Roll into the office today and shes there. No mask. Nothing.

I start chatting with her "Suk-Lee, aren't you supposed to be in quarantine?!" 
 

"Yes but I had onsite meeting today. I had to come in early for call then two meeting." 

(blank stare from me from ~2M away)

"I know (director name) told me 14 day, but I had meeting. She told me to wear mask after but It's hard to talk with mask" 

 

then..... she ####### coughs. :eek:

 

Not right at me, but close enough.
 

I kinda roll back back a couple feet, grab my computer, and walk out of the office. I'm not going back till Monday. Frankly I ####### hope I offended the #### out of her. 

This same woman came in last fall with a brutal chest cold and got our entire team sick,

If she goes down, she wants everyone she knows to go down with her!

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50 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Sooo.... 

You guys remember Me talking about the team member next to my desk who went to Asia (Malaysia, unsure of flight path) for lunar new year, then was directed to self quarantine for 14 days upon return? 
 

Roll into the office today and shes there. No mask. Nothing.

I start chatting with her "Suk-Lee, aren't you supposed to be in quarantine?!" 
 

"Yes but I had onsite meeting today. I had to come in early for call then two meeting." 

(blank stare from me from ~2M away)

"I know (director name) told me 14 day, but I had meeting. She told me to wear mask after but It's hard to talk with mask" 

 

then..... she ####### coughs. :eek:

 

Not right at me, but close enough.
 

I kinda roll back back a couple feet, grab my computer, and walk out of the office. I'm not going back till Monday. Frankly I ####### hope I offended the #### out of her. 

This same woman came in last fall with a brutal chest cold and got our entire team sick,

Oh man!!! 

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19 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

If she goes down, she wants everyone she knows to go down with her!

Seriously. 

Brings up the Old topic: if you're "I go to work sick to show how tough and dedicated I am" guy.... I hope you get in an accident on the way to work.

Not one bad enough to cause serious injury, but you deserve to have your car disabled because you're not a responsible adult. 

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2 minutes ago, JbizzleMan said:

Is she a super spreader? 

I think HR is going to need a new term for that.

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South Korea added 51 cases today. :(  Them, Japan, and Iran have to get their schmidt right or they will be the new hot spots.

Lots of loose rumors about Iran. They admitted to two cases, but are thought to have a significant unknown number.

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https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001737?query=featured_home

That link from New England Journal of Medicine compares viral load and transmission of SARS with COVID-19, and it’s not encouraging.

Third paragraph summary: 

  • High viral load in nose, as opposed to low viral load in throat of SARS
  • As a result, transmission of new disease more like Flu
  • And unlike SARS, which transmitted from symptomatic patients for 10 days, asymptomatic COVID-19 patients are as contagious and for longer 
  • Patients may have no symptoms for 5 days but carry modest viral loads

SARS could be contained because of the aforementioned characteristics, while it’s hard to imagine given the above profile how Covid-19 can be. It has a lot going for it.

Article is a little confusing in that it calls Covid-19 SARS-CoV-2, which is “the illness caused by Covid-19.”

My guess is before we see a massive spike in detected Covid-19, which seems easily masked in many patients in the first week or two, we’re more apt to see a spike in unexplained pneumonia cases hitting global healthcare systems. If that’s the case, it would presumably start up in earnest in a week or two.

 

Edited by Mr. Ham

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Addendum to above. Reddit posts (see Reddit r/Coronavirus) separately document that South Korea will test everyone with symptoms that could be the virus, which will be interesting to follow. Similarly, Germany will start testing samples of influenza patients in an attempt to pick up otherwise undiagnosed cases.

Given the similarity is to a cold or seasonal flu, I would wager the vast majority of cases are not being diagnosed, and will be interesting to see if proactive measures change the landscape.

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China CDC report is late tonight...maybe they are changing the case definition again??

Here is one of several people who I follow on Twitter: Link

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9 hours ago, Mr. Ham said:

Sounds like everything related to Diamond Princess was a goat rodeo, with 500 people sent into the wild to potentially spread the virus...

CDC’s Diamond Princess update (Feb-18)

”We commend the extraordinary efforts by the Government of Japan to institute quarantine measures onboard the Diamond Princess. While the quarantine potentially conferred a significant public health benefit in slowing transmission, CDC’s assessment is that it may not have been sufficient to prevent transmission among individuals on the ship.  CDC believes the rate of new infections on board, especially among those without symptoms, represents an ongoing risk. Therefore, to protect the health of the American public, all passengers and crew of the ship have been placed under travel restrictions, preventing them from returning to the United States for at least 14 days after they had left the Diamond Princess...”

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Non-China Reported Cases

2/7 - 277

2/10 - 394

2/11 - 430

2/12 - 490

2/14 - 525

2/15 - 684

2/16 - 695

2/17 - 893 reported cases - (454 on Diamond Princess) - 135 recovered - 36 serious/critical - 5 dead 

2/18 - 1,014 reported cases (542 on Diamond Princess) - 152 recovered - 39 serious/critical - 5 dead

2/19 - 1,149 reported cases (621 on Diamond Princess) - 169 recovered - 45 serious/critical - 10 dead

 

 

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On 2/18/2020 at 7:46 PM, bradyfan said:

China CDC Situation Report on Feb-18
31 Provinces & XPCC
  Suspected: 5248 (+1185)
  Confirmed: 74185 (+1749)
  Severe: 11977 (+236)
  Dead: 2004 (+136)
  Recovered: 14376 (+1824)
Hong Kong - Confirmed: 62 (Dead: 1, Recovered: 4)
Macau - Confirmed: 10 (Recovered: 5)
Taiwan - Confirmed: 22 (Dead: 1, Recovered: 2)

China CDC Situation Report on Feb-19
31 Provinces & XPCC
  Suspected: 4922 (+1277)
  Confirmed: 74576 (+394) - back to original definition now (no more clinical diagnoses)
  Severe: 11864 (-113)
  Dead: 2118 (+114)
  Recovered: 16155 (+1779)
Hong Kong - Confirmed: 65 (Dead: 2, Recovered: 5)
Macau - Confirmed: 10 (Recovered: 6)
Taiwan - Confirmed: 24 (Dead: 1, Recovered: 2)

Edited by bradyfan

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Japanese media say two passengers from Diamond Princess cruise ship died


The two Diamond Princess passengers who died on Thursday were both Japanese, NHK reported - an 87-year-old man and an 84-year-old woman. Both victims reportedly had pre-existing medical conditions, the broadcaster said, adding that the man had been hospitalised on 11 February and the woman the following day.

Edited by bradyfan

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8 hours ago, Doug B said:

South Korea added 51 cases today. :(  Them, Japan, and Iran have to get their schmidt right or they will be the new hot spots.

Lots of loose rumors about Iran. They admitted to two cases, but are thought to have a significant unknown number.

Still mostly that church where an old lady went four times with a fever, refusing being tested twice "because she had not traveled lately"

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17 hours ago, adonis said:

Can you talk more about the "inoculum"?  I find that this isn't something I"ve thought much about.  I realize I've been operating under an assumption that you're either sick with a virus or you're not...and not thinking about it in terms of virus load.

 

It’s just a measure of how much virus (or more broadly, pathogen) to which you’re initially exposed - your body can often effectively control small exposures, though this varies for different types of infections. An intimate household contact of an infected individual or healthcare worker is far more likely to be exposed to high viral quantities than a casual contact, which may place them at risk for more severe illness.

And infection isn’t binary; it’s a continuum from asymptomatic to mild cold-like symptoms to fulminant illness, usually with pneumonia and respiratory failure.

Unlike HIV or hepatitis C, viral load isn’t typically measured in coronavirus infections. So it’s not entirely clear how it correlates with disease severity, but it’s reasonable to expect those with greater viral exposure are more likely to get sick and may possibly develop worse symptoms.

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17 hours ago, Mr. Ham said:

Sounds like everything related to Diamond Princess was a goat rodeo, with 500 people sent into the wild to potentially spread the virus. Apparently, a taxi driver who had contact with passengers when the ship was docked in Okinawa February 1 has it and is seriously ill. Appears to be on the longer end of the incubation spectrum.

As an Austinite, I’m not particularly thrilled that sxsw is coming up March 13-23. Looked at last year’s economic report. 49% of the 100k attendees come in from other states. 26% are international. It’s one of the world’s biggest Internet festivals, and the music and film tracks draw attendees from everywhere.

Will see how things progress over next couple weeks, but if you’ve ever been in town for one of these, it’s all about big crowds in tight spaces, small venues, lots of Ubering about. I’d prefer we don’t invite that level of international co-mingling just yet.  

I’ll be in Austin that week. 
 

Meeting some folks who are coming in from Japan :thumbup: 

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3 hours ago, Otis said:

I’ll be in Austin that week. 
 

Meeting some folks who are coming in from Japan :thumbup: 

Here for sx? Barbecue on me if you’re up for it.

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3 hours ago, Otis said:

I’ll be in Austin that week. 
 

Meeting some folks who are coming in from Japan :thumbup: 

 Remember a deeper, longer bow indicates respect and don’t ask if they are super spreaders.

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1 minute ago, Mr. Ham said:

Here for sx? Barbecue on me if you’re up for it.

Are you sure?  You have no idea who Otis has spent time lately.  It could be anyone from any country.

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1 minute ago, bradyfan said:

Are you sure?  You have no idea who Otis has spent time lately.  It could be anyone from any country.

I may be paranoid, but I’m hospitable. 

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4 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

I may be paranoid, but I’m hospitable. 

Will you wear a face mask? Or serve colloidal silver?

Edited by bradyfan

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7 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

Here for sx? Barbecue on me if you’re up for it.

We need photos of all of you in n95 masks and bunny suits. 

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