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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)

https://www.instagram.com/p/B8_3CGQnx6H/

Health officials are warning that the spread of coronavirus in the United States appears inevitable. The comments were made in separate briefings to lawmakers and reporters on Tuesday, marking an escalation in tone and urgency.“Ultimately we expect we will see community spread in the United States,” Nancy Messonnier, a top official at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters. “It’s not a question of if this will happen but when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illnesses.” 

 
NREC34 said:
I left work early and went to Sam’s Club. It was really slow. Lot better than going on the weekend. Got 3 cases of water and a big bag of rice and a few other things. 

I saw one other guy getting a lot of water. Don’t think a lot of folks are real worried. I bet most people don’t even know about it. 
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I asked my immediate family if anybody was doing any "prepping".  My SIL's reply "what's Coronavirus?".   :lmao:

 
jplvr said:
https://www.instagram.com/p/B8_3CGQnx6H/

Health officials are warning that the spread of coronavirus in the United States appears inevitable. The comments were made in separate briefings to lawmakers and reporters on Tuesday, marking an escalation in tone and urgency.“Ultimately we expect we will see community spread in the United States,” Nancy Messonnier, a top official at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters. “It’s not a question of if this will happen but when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illnesses.” 
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Not according to Rush.

 
More quotes from Dr. Messonier:

“It’s not so much of a question of if this will happen in this country any more but a question of when this will happen,” said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.

She said that public health officials have no idea whether the spread of the disease to the United States would be mild or severe, but that Americans should be ready for a significant disruption to their daily lives.

“We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad,” Dr. Messonnier said.

The secretary of health and human services delivered an equally sobering message on Tuesday. The secretary, Alex M. Azar II, told a Senate committee, “This is an unprecedented, potentially severe health challenge globally.”

Federal and local health departments will need as many as 300 million masks for health care workers and additional ventilators for hospitals to prepare for a major outbreak of coronavirus, he said.
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link

 
Just looked at Amazon.   Plenty of reusable N99 masks left with replacement filters.   Seems like people may only be searching for N95?

 
beer 30 said:
Rush is a ####### nut. I just caught about 5 min of him coming back from lunch, "this is nothing more than the common cold", is not what a person who has an audience in the millions should be saying.
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:shrug:  the people listening to him are probably going to be the ones who catch the brunt of this. Hope they aren’t listening to him. 

 
Italy update

Switzerland update

Things just got a whole hell of a lot worse in Italy. My daughter says that cities are being shut down and trains are being rerouted/  completely stopped. My daughter is on no travel to any of Italy.  Lugano Switzerland has its first case. They expect more because this past weekend was Carnivale

 
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Capella said:
:shrug:  the people listening to him are probably going to be the ones who catch the brunt of this. Hope they aren’t listening to him. 
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I guarantee they are. So many blindly lead people in this country, it's scary.

The herd gets thinned one way or the other I guess.

 
-fish- said:
Just looked at Amazon.   Plenty of reusable N99 masks left with replacement filters.   Seems like people may only be searching for N95?
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Just ordered 3 for my family.  Expected delivery one month from tomorrow.  Hope we won't need them at all, but if so hope that is soon enough.

 
facook said:
Just ordered 3 for my family.  Expected delivery one month from tomorrow.  Hope we won't need them at all, but if so hope that is soon enough.
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A month?  Did you look at your local home depot/lowes?  Ours had plenty last I checked.

 
chet said:
For the science types, here's the Washington Post's take on how the virus kills and then a description from an advisor to Cytodyn as to why he thinks their drug will be an effective treatment:
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This scares the #### out of me. Both my wife and daughter have weak immune systems.  

And my wife is a 1st grade teacher in a huge elementary school  

wife has a white blood cell issue and daughter is on a medicine for her juvenile arthritis that surprises some of her immune system.   

 
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The most likely explanation for the origin of this:

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/

The coincidence that this started right next to China's only BSL4 is mostly likely not.  Amazing that they routinely sell test lab animals.  Reminiscent of mad cow disease, but a whole lot worse.

And you have to love that the officials there just released a new directive - “Instructions on strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus.” Yeah, I'm sure that's coincidence, too.

(If this is a Honda, my apologies, no time to read the whole 45 pages).

 
Can you set up a quarantine in your house? I know most of us FBG have some spare wing or guest mansion we could close off and put an infected person, but is there anything a regular plebe could to to minimize Spreading it through the house if a family member has it? 

 
Sand said:
The most likely explanation for the origin of this:

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/

The coincidence that this started right next to China's only BSL4 is mostly likely not.  Amazing that they routinely sell test lab animals.  Reminiscent of mad cow disease, but a whole lot worse.

And you have to love that the officials there just released a new directive - “Instructions on strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus.” Yeah, I'm sure that's coincidence, too.

(If this is a Honda, my apologies, no time to read the whole 45 pages).
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It's only the third time it's been mentioned :rolleyes:

 
Random said:
A month?  Did you look at your local home depot/lowes?  Ours had plenty last I checked.
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Out of curiosity I stopped by Home Depot and checked my area - pretty much full stock of all masks, including N95.

I had already stocked up a year ago on masks as part of a prep-kit for my family, but there are still masks to be found right now.

Hopefully this all quiets down and as things warm up the numbers of infections recede.  Doesn't seem likely at this point though.

 
glvsav37 said:
Can you set up a quarantine in your house? I know most of us FBG have some spare wing or guest mansion we could close off and put an infected person, but is there anything a regular plebe could to to minimize Spreading it through the house if a family member has it? 
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Best tip would be a room with hard surfaces, or a room adjacent to something like a bathroom. 

Use plastic sheeting to tape off the doorway w a slit to enter. Reseal with Velcro/tape where possible. Make them comfortable in their room. Minimize direct contact or getting closer than necessary. 

When you leave that room, remove mask/goggles/clothing using proper technique and sanitize thoroughly. At the LEAST you'll want to wash hands and face thoroughly with antibacterial soap. 

Sounds overly thorough, but that's the ideal way, from what I understand/have read as a non-professional. 

Having infected folks wearing basic surgical masks would somewhat help contain infective aerosols from coughing/sneezing. 

 
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[icon] said:
Best tip would be a room with hard surfaces, or a room adjacent to something like a bathroom. 

Use plastic sheeting to tape off the doorway w a slit to enter. Reseal with Velcro/tape where possible. Make them comfortable in their room. Minimize direct contact or getting closer than necessary. 

When you leave that room, remove mask/goggles/clothing using proper technique and sanitize thoroughly. At the LEAST you'll want to wash hands and face thoroughly with antibacterial soap. 

Sounds overly thorough, but that's the ideal way, from what I understand/have read as a non-professional. 

Having infected folks wearing basic surgical masks would somewhat help contain infective aerosols from coughing/sneezing. 
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Antibacterial soap for a virus?

 
culdeus said:
It's hard to get a dataset that isn't tainted by China spin.  

If you are under 50 you are at about as much risk as the flu.  Above 70.  Rip. 
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I saw something about 15% over age 80.  Females fare better.  Kids and younger sub 50 folks very low rate.  
 

if that’s true, the numbers for those over 60 have to be shocking.  Has this been discussed much?  A virus without vaccine with a mortality rate in the double digits for folks over 60?

may be off on those numbers which is why I’m asking.

 
culdeus said:
It's hard to get a dataset that isn't tainted by China spin.  

If you are under 50 you are at about as much risk as the flu.  Above 70.  Rip. 
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Also heard that China’s overall mortality rate seems to be validated in other countries.  We’ll see though.

 
culdeus said:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

This describes well what should happen.  Every single one of us is going to get it.  
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in the article, Harvard epidemiologist Lipsitch opines that a year from now, 40%-70% of the world's population will be infected with the virus.

let's go with 40%.

let's go with a 2% mortality rate.

google told me that as of Feb. 2020 the U.N. estimates the world population is 7.8 billion.

google told me that 7.8 billion x 40% x 2% = 62,400,000

a year from now

 
adonis said:
Has anyone seen mortality rate breakdowns by age, gender?
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yeah, last i saw, in china, mortality for my age 60-69 is 5%

70- 79 is 8%

very young is very low %, and the % increases as age goes up

i also saw that in china mortality is significantly higher for males and that that could be because of the smoking rate

(i can also imagine that other lifestyle choices by males could be a factor)

 
Redwes25 said:
This is best info I have seen re: mortality rate and demographics - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
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So if you look at this and break it down further, the numbers for males over the age of 50 are downright frightening.  
 

If said male had a comorbidity, it gets more frightening.

again, let this sink in, folks in the CDC are saying that nearly everyone will get this.  The mortality rate for those over 80 is 15%.  That is INSANE.

it doesn’t get much better for those 60+ as many have health issues as well.  Especially males.  

The disruption to the world of Deaths on this scale is just truly unimaginable if these numbers hold up.  

I enjoy laughing in the face of danger as much as the next guy, but I worry that some of the things we find funny today, in a year we will look back on and find it hard to see the humor.

I hope that’s not true.

 
What people are overlooking is the comorbidity with obesity as it is a near 1:1 with hypertension.   It hasn't hit a obese population yet, so we don't truly know how it interacts.   I can't imagine it plays well. 

 
adonis said:
So if you look at this and break it down further, the numbers for males over the age of 50 are downright frightening.  
 

If said male had a comorbidity, it gets more frightening.

again, let this sink in, folks in the CDC are saying that nearly everyone will get this.  The mortality rate for those over 80 is 15%.  That is INSANE.

it doesn’t get much better for those 60+ as many have health issues as well.  Especially males.  

The disruption to the world of Deaths on this scale is just truly unimaginable if these numbers hold up.  

I enjoy laughing in the face of danger as much as the next guy, but I worry that some of the things we find funny today, in a year we will look back on and find it hard to see the humor.

I hope that’s not true.
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What I thought was surprising is kids. I can’t imagine they aren’t picking it up. They pick up everything. Are they just not showing symptoms and spreading it or is it so mild they don’t need any care and spreading?  Seems so strange. 

 
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