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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (21 Viewers)

shader said:
I think we give the CDC and the WHO way too much grief.  This was a virus that would have killed millions and their efforts have convinced the world to quarantine.  They don’t have powers to snap their fingers and make this go away.  They sounded the alarms and people listened.  
 

For the most part, we have avoided the worst (from a virus scenario) because of the quarantines.

I imagine both organizations have learned a lot over the past two months.  Pandemic plans don’t smoothly roll out into the real world.  Literally no one that works for either organization has ever dealt with a worldwide pandemic like this.  So for my part, hats off to both orgs.

The danger comes if people decide to stop listening to them.  
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So when the CDC tells you masks aren't necessary in a future outbreak, will you take their word for it?

When the WHO tells you China's propaganda is true, will you listen?

I just don't understand this. I give the CDC a little better grade than the WHO, just because I think the WHO is a useless organization now. They wouldn't even call the thing a pandemic in late February, and I don't think until March.

 
shader said:
I've seen a lot of anger at these projections.  Many are mad because the worst-case scenarios have been adjusted.  I don't get people.  The reason they've adjusted the scenarios is that the quarantining is working.  If people stop, numbers will shoot up.

I'm not a huge fan of these models in general, and I'm shocked at how quickly people have begun taking them so seriously.
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As Governor DeWine said when deferring to providing a number to a press question... if you say a number, you own that number.

That truism proving to be the case with models as well.

Even though anyone that understands modeling basics realizes they are only as good as their variables, their programming, and their data.

And that models continually change and get better as all three of those pieces are adjusted based on new knowledge - especially with more data.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
The CDC was literally telling people out loud not to wear masks.  That didn't have anything to do with their budget or staffing.  
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I’ve said since the beginning that the whole mask recommendation has been due to the shortage. They should have done what they did now recommending homemade masks or any face coverings and save the medical grade masks for the health professionals.

 
jplvr said:
So when the CDC tells you masks aren't necessary in a future outbreak, will you take their word for it?

When the WHO tells you China's propaganda is true, will you listen?

I just don't understand this. I give the CDC a little better grade than the WHO, just because I think the WHO is a useless organization now. They wouldn't even call the thing a pandemic in late February, and I don't think until March.
Click to expand...
The WHO has been all over this thing for the past two months. What else did you want them to do?  There’s still no proof that China’s numbers are fake.  China did have an outbreak and did bring it under control. If the USA had listened to the WHO in late February and shut everything down then, we’d be in much better shape now.  
 

 
I was told that Cuomo said chloroquine was working today. Can someone verify/debunk that? My presumption is that it’s false

 
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Biff84 said:
I’ve said since the beginning that the whole mask recommendation has been due to the shortage. They should have done what they did now recommending homemade masks or any face coverings and save the medical grade masks for the health professionals.
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I saw my first mask here in Denmark today. We've been on lockdown for three weeks now, and the health authorities have said all along that masks for healthy people are not needed.

 
RnR said:
You don't need a pandemic response team to come up with: stay away from people, wash your hands and wear a mask (after a month of waffling)
Click to expand...
But you do need them to do research into possible threats, create contingency plans for them based on how they're spread, and pore through that info to keep us from getting where we are now.

 
Kal El said:
But you do need them to do research into possible threats, create contingency plans for them based on how they're spread, and pore through that info to keep us from getting where we are now.
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So give them more power? What if certain branches of the government fail to follow their recommendations?

 
Went to Smart & Final on Monday night and I'd say 75% of the folks were wearing masks.  I am getting some from my parents, whose friend had some surgical masks.  So I used a bandana with a couple rubber bands :lol:    I looked like a Wild West bank robber or something.  Lots of social distancing enforcement at the store... good to see.

Knock on wood but California, especially SoCal, has been doing pretty good numbers-wise.  Wouldn't know it from the amount of traffic on the roads, though.

 
How dumb is the average american?  If you ask the CDC, they will say dumb enough to not know the difference between a medical grade mask and a bandanna/cut up shirt.

 
Kal El said:
But you do need them to do research into possible threats, create contingency plans for them based on how they're spread, and pore through that info to keep us from getting where we are now.
Click to expand...
Are they not already doing this at the CENTER FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION? I guess I'm fundamentally misunderstanding what the agency is there for if not things like this. Whether they have something titled as a "Pandemic Response Team" seems kinda secondary to the idea of having a general grasp on proper response to widespread disease.

 
I don't know how to convey the love and patriotism and appreciation for nurses, EMS, doctors, and the aides and cleaners at every hospital, clinic and nursing home these days. My god, they are holding this country together right now. I hope when this is over, and one day it will be over, that we build statues to these people.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Maybe I just don't know how all this is supposed to work (and I mean that sincerely) but it seems to me the billions we've spent on the CDC and NIH (and the WHO) has amounted to bupkus.

The best "control" that these disease control and health organizations could come up with is "everybody stay home"?

What do they really do with all that time and money spent on studying infectious diseases if it bears no fruit just when it seems necessary?

Are they only for being reactionary and not proactive?
Click to expand...
This is a fair question to ask, and I'm sure that there are ways in which the CDC and other organizations could have performed better. But it seems to me that a lot of the criticism amounts to nitpicking and hindsight.

Take, for example, the thing with the masks. They weren't exactly telling everyone in February not to wear masks -- they were saying that masks are not needed UNLESS you are sick OR caring for someone who is sick. And that guideline is not much different from what they're saying today ("wear face covering where other social distancing is difficult to maintain"). Notice that the CDC is not using the word "mask" in the current guideline.

Anyway, some of the criticism reminds me of people who complain when a team fails to get a first down after going for it on 4th-and-4. In hindsight, they should have kicked that field goal. But in the moment of the game, based on all available information, they played the percentages and made the best available call.

 
Mr. Ham said:
Where in RI? Both sides of my family hail from Westerly, and way back in the 1660s my ancestors were amongst the original settlers on Block Island. My Great Great and Great Great Great grandfathers kept the SE light.
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Grew up in East Providence, now live in Warwick. Spend my childhood spending at least 2 weeks on BI every summer in a big house in the woods with my family and our cousins. Haven't been in years. No disposable income since my wife's employer retired and closed up shop. 

Nathan R. Jessep said:
Interesting. What exactly were they picking up on in early and mid November that clued them in? Did it state that anywhere? 
Click to expand...
The article mentions briefings began at the end of November and then regularly from then on. All the high tech stuff... I'd guess they were seeing police/military activity involved with isolation, taping doors closed, food being delivered, etc? That and some slick wire taps?   ;)

The part that stands out more to me is the continued briefings from then on.

McBokonon said:
Just had a video meeting with my work team. We have reached the stage of COVID-19 where people show up with obvious bed head and eat bacon during the meetings.
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Bacon. Nothing else on the plate. Just bacon. mmmmmmmmmmm

 
shader said:
I was told that Cuomo said chloroquine was working today. Can someone verify/debunk that? My presumption is that it’s false
Click to expand...
Not that I recall. I believe he said two days ago some patients are receiving it in clinical trials and there is anecdotal evidence it’s effective. Yesterday he labeled it promising. I didn’t hear it come up today but maybe I missed it.

ETA: I see @glock indirectly referenced that a ton of conservative news outlets have been trying to apply pressure to Cuomo. It’s quite common among that cohort group to state “Cuomo needs to lift the ban.” There is a restriction it can only be prescribed for lupus, malaria and active Covid 19 cases. That seems reasonable given the FDA did not approve it as a Covid 19 therapeutic but is allowing emergency usage to allow clinical trials.

 
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RnR said:
Are they not already doing this at the CENTER FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION? I guess I'm fundamentally misunderstanding what the agency is there for if not things like this. Whether they have something titled as a "Pandemic Response Team" seems kinda secondary to the idea of having a general grasp on proper response to widespread disease.
Click to expand...
Did you not read anything I wrote? They would be specialists who are trying to prepare before stuff like now is happening. As for disease prevention, as I said, different disease types require different measures to slow or halt the spread of them. Stopping cholera requires different tactics than the flu does, but no funding to a specialized team that would be designed to combat pandemics is a bad idea. So lose the attitude and do some research.

 
shader said:
I think we give the CDC and the WHO way too much grief.  This was a virus that would have killed millions and their efforts have convinced the world to quarantine.  They don’t have powers to snap their fingers and make this go away.  They sounded the alarms and people listened.  
 

For the most part, we have avoided the worst (from a virus scenario) because of the quarantines.

I imagine both organizations have learned a lot over the past two months.  Pandemic plans don’t smoothly roll out into the real world.  Literally no one that works for either organization has ever dealt with a worldwide pandemic like this.  So for my part, hats off to both orgs.

The danger comes if people decide to stop listening to them.  
Click to expand...
My problem with this with respect to the WHO is that they were pretty adamant about not halting international travel in January in February.  I'm an engineer, not a disease expert, but when I read articles in the BBC and other publications saying that travel bans and border closures were counterproductive, it just made no intuitive sense at all to me.  Digging to make sure my memory wasn't faulty, I found this statement from a politico article 2/4:

World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Tuesday that widespread travel bans and restrictions weren’t needed to stop the outbreak and could "have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit." 

It's kind of analogous to the mask debate - it's one thing to say they're not a panacea, it's quite another to say they will make the problem worse.

 
shader said:
I was told that Cuomo said chloroquine was working today. Can someone verify/debunk that? My presumption is that it’s false
Click to expand...
He was positive about it in his press conference either yesterday or the day before as well. I know it doesn’t jive with many’s talking points in here but it happened. 

 
Kal El said:
Did you not read anything I wrote? They would be specialists who are trying to prepare before stuff like now is happening. As for disease prevention, as I said, different disease types require different measures to slow or halt the spread of them. Stopping cholera requires different tactics than the flu does, but no funding to a specialized team that would be designed to combat pandemics is a bad idea. So lose the attitude and do some research.
Click to expand...
Relax.

I get what you're saying. There's merit to having a specialized unit.

But it doesn't change the fact that this group has failed in the most basic areas of what you'd expect a group of disease professionals to provide. Like... wearing a mask or not.

Blaming the lack of preparedness for something that has been a threat since inception of the agency on the lack of funding for a specialized pandemic response seems... convenient.

Where in the non-government world would that be an acceptable excuse for failure? People manage teams that could use more funds and resources all around the world. Every day.

And if they're missing a critical piece that will drive the team into failure: They shout it from the mountain tops until the need is better addressed.

If they're unable to get it addressed: They do the best they can with the resources in place.

Do you think the CDC has done the best it can with the resources available?

 
shader said:
The WHO has been all over this thing for the past two months. What else did you want them to do?  There’s still no proof that China’s numbers are fake.  China did have an outbreak and did bring it under control. If the USA had listened to the WHO in late February and shut everything down then, we’d be in much better shape now.  
 
Click to expand...
Listened to the WHO say it wasn't even a pandemic on February 25th? I don't have the date when they actually changed the classification, but I know they weren't even acknowledging it as such on February 25th. Looked it up before hitting send: March 11th. The WHO was really on top of things.

China has lied about this from the beginning, and they continue to lie, IMO, but go on believing whatever they say, if you want. They even shut down travel within Hubei, but exported the disease around the globe by allowing international flights to continue.

The WHO is clearly beholden to China, and I think that much is clear after this event. Go look at the bizarre interview with the Taiwanese reporter where the WHO official wouldn't even recognize Taiwan as anything but a province of China. 

I think the administration has plenty of questions to answer, but to act like the WHO and China should be exempt from criticism is baffling to me.

The CDC gets more of a pass from me because you can go back to late January for warnings of a spread in the U.S., but they also told everyone masks weren't necessary.

 
jplvr said:
Listened to the WHO say it wasn't even a pandemic on February 25th? I don't have the date when they actually changed the classification, but I know they weren't even acknowledging it as such on February 25th. Looked it up before hitting send: March 11th. The WHO was really on top of things.

China has lied about this from the beginning, and they continue to lie, IMO, but go on believing whatever they say, if you want. They even shut down travel within Hubei, but exported the disease around the globe by allowing international flights to continue.

The WHO is clearly beholden to China, and I think that much is clear after this event. Go look at the bizarre interview with the Taiwanese reporter where the WHO official wouldn't even recognize Taiwan as anything but a province of China. 

I think the administration has plenty of questions to answer, but to act like the WHO and China should be exempt from criticism is baffling to me.

The CDC gets more of a pass from me because you can go back to late January for warnings of a spread in the U.S., but they also told everyone masks weren't necessary.
Click to expand...
Using the label “pandemic” is what we are criticizing them for?  Go read the WHO coronavirus report on Feb 24. Or any of their daily updates.  They were ridiculing countries for weeks. Ultimately maybe they will in the future use the pandemic word earlier but that seems like a “talking point”, not a fair criticism. 
 

The bottom line is that they were screaming to the world that this virus needed to be taken seriously way before anyone took it seriously.  That’s the truth and it’s been documented in this very thread for months.  

 
Re: dont do the forebearance... 

Not sure if student loans are the same but way back, I did it like every other month on my student loans and they just added a month to the payoff.  I'm sure it varies by lender and I've bean reading the same quite a bit.  If I wasnt cooking, I'd find the link bit read something just yesterday that the government is trying to talk to lenders that are saying "lump sum due after 3 months".

 
Dr_Zaius said:
My problem with this with respect to the WHO is that they were pretty adamant about not halting international travel in January in February.  I'm an engineer, not a disease expert, but when I read articles in the BBC and other publications saying that travel bans and border closures were counterproductive, it just made no intuitive sense at all to me.  Digging to make sure my memory wasn't faulty, I found this statement from a politico article 2/4:

World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Tuesday that widespread travel bans and restrictions weren’t needed to stop the outbreak and could "have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit." 

It's kind of analogous to the mask debate - it's one thing to say they're not a panacea, it's quite another to say they will make the problem worse.
Click to expand...
2/4 is a different story than 2/24.  When you think about how this virus works, how long it takes to progress, how long the incubation period is, you have to really admire the WHO for how quickly they changed from their initial reactions and 3 weeks later produced the seminal document on this virus that has been the foundation of everything else we’ve learned over the past two months.

Yes, they may have misjudged these things but hindsight is 20/20.  Fauci was on the NYT podcast last week and was speaking in similar terms. Yeah it’s easy to look back and see where we went wrong.  But look back and see where we’d be WITHOUT these organizations.  It would be a totally different outcome, and the world as we know it would be falling apart right now.

 
jplvr said:
So when the CDC tells you masks aren't necessary in a future outbreak, will you take their word for it?

When the WHO tells you China's propaganda is true, will you listen?

I just don't understand this. I give the CDC a little better grade than the WHO, just because I think the WHO is a useless organization now. They wouldn't even call the thing a pandemic in late February, and I don't think until March.
Click to expand...
agreed, not to mention multiple reputable news sources reported the CDC kept promising the feds all during February that US testing would be no problem due to their super duper special test they were developing, which - surprise! - completely failed to work as expected.

 
Kal El said:
Do people forget that the pandemic response team was cut a few years back? How are they supposed to prepare for this when they literally don't have the team in place?
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I wasn't even aware it had happened until two months ago or whatever. :shrug:

 
Possum said:
agreed, not to mention multiple reputable news sources reported the CDC kept promising the feds all during February that US testing would be no problem due to their super duper special test they were developing, which - surprise! - completely failed to work as expected.
Click to expand...
The testing was a joke, that’s for sure.

 
Florida new cases and deaths by day

4/3 - 1260 , 26

4/4 - 1277,  25

4/5-  805,  26

4/6 - 1279, 33

4/7 - 1118, 42

4/8 - 951,  27

Florida has been passed by Pennsylvania in both total cases and active cases. Pennsylvania, after a couple of very bad days, has slightly fewer deaths than Florida.

 
jplvr said:
So when the CDC tells you masks aren't necessary in a future outbreak, will you take their word for it?

When the WHO tells you China's propaganda is true, will you listen?

I just don't understand this. I give the CDC a little better grade than the WHO, just because I think the WHO is a useless organization now. They wouldn't even call the thing a pandemic in late February, and I don't think until March.
Click to expand...
At least the WHO showed up with a test that worked.  CDC refused to use the WHO test and insisted on developing their own which didn't work.  CDC gets an F minus.  WHO gets like a C.  

 
JaxBill said:
Florida new cases and deaths by day

4/3 - 1260 , 26

4/4 - 1277,  25

4/5-  805,  26

4/6 - 1279, 33

4/7 - 1118, 42

4/8 - 951,  27

Florida has been passed by Pennsylvania in both total cases and active cases. Pennsylvania, after a couple of very bad days, has slightly fewer deaths than Florida.
Click to expand...
Those look like pretty good numbers.  I worry about Florida given the age of the population at the risk of it spreading like wildfire across active senior communities.  

 
Another 2200 cases in NYC reported in NYC evening report.  Not sure it has been picked up in Worldometers yet and those numbers will be included in next announcement from Cuomo during his daily press conference tomorrow.  Total cases reported out of NYC today of 5603 (adding morning and evening reports together).

 
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JaxBill said:
Florida new cases and deaths by day

4/3 - 1260 , 26

4/4 - 1277,  25

4/5-  805,  26

4/6 - 1279, 33

4/7 - 1118, 42

4/8 - 951,  27

Florida has been passed by Pennsylvania in both total cases and active cases. Pennsylvania, after a couple of very bad days, has slightly fewer deaths than Florida.
Click to expand...
Florida is maybe the most surprising area in the world to be doing well. After Spring Break & then being slow to issue stay at home guidance, I think everyone expected the numbers to explode.

 
Redwes25 said:
Another 2200 cases in NYC reported in NYC evening report.  Not sure it has been picked up in Worldometers yet and those numbers will be included in next announcement from Cuomo during his daily press conference tomorrow.  Total cases reported out of NYC today of 5603 (adding morning and evening reports together).
Click to expand...
Nothing too encouraging again today at covid worldometers.  New cases again climbing to 80,000; reported deaths over 6,000.  The chart still shows some countries climbing with over 15% new cases for the day (Russia; Cuba) and some over 20% or more (Peru; Belarus; Niger).  This sucker is everywhere.

 
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