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Government Response To The Coronavirus (10 Viewers)

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Mr Anonymous said:
Night and day difference between this thread and the CV thread in the FFA. One is informative and useful. While the other is a total wasteland. If you can't tell the difference, you're the problem.
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True or False or Debatable?  The United States is now the only industrialized country in the world without mass-testing for coronavirus.

If it's either True or Debatable then this admin deserves all the bashing and criticism that's currently happening.

 
The Commish said:
It's not just older people as we understand it today.  If you have asthma, you're at risk.  If you have diabetes, you're at risk.  If you have heart conditions, you're at risk.  All these are regardless of age.  How do you propose segregating specific groups in this manner?  At this point, the best we can do is limit the exposure from outside sources and treat those within our borders.  It's assinine to continue and allow the influx of contamination into an area you are trying to decontaminate.

Now, if one wants to make the argument that travel should still be allowed as long as the traveler has tested negative for the virus prior to travel, then we can talk.  However, if your concern is "cost" as you talk about above, that approach won't address that problem.  So I'm not exactly sure there is a realistic and effective method that's acceptable with that as a primary driver.  That ship appears to have sailed.
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No child under 10 has died and the death rate for those under 40 is less than .2%.

 
I’m considering recommending to my landlords giving their tenants a month of free rent for the month of April. Of course some of them will probably fire me for even suggesting it, lol. But it might be a way to prevent worse outcomes like default and vacancy. 

I haven’t decided yet...

 
BobbyLayne said:
People keep getting this wrong...

Each kit contains enough supplies for 750-800 specimen tests. So the baseline is 6-6.4M.

The original (botched) test kit had three components - my terminology might be off here but it was three specimen tests. Each different and confirms the others. When they realized one of these wasn’t working properly, they evaluated whether two would be sufficient. It was determined it would be.

So they probably have enough for 6M specimen tests, or 3M people.

Hope that makes sense.
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I could be wrong but I don't think that Gov Newsom was talking about the old CDC kits.

Logically, if he had the ability, right now, to test almost 10% of California's population, why would testing still be restricted severely?

 
tonydead said:
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
People don't die the second they get it.  It is likely that it has spread widely and that there are many people that have already contracted it and will die from it in the future.
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Sure.  But:

tonydead said:
Death Rate should be the new slogan.  All those people putting out the obviously false numbers like 3.4% blew it.
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If half the country gets infected, even a low death rate will result in hundreds of thousands of deaths.

 
Also...lets not conflate the Mayo Clinic as some normal healthcare business.  If all healthcare was run not for profit as they are...I think people would have a more favorable view to healthcare vs wanting universal healthcare.  At any rate...them developing tests better than our bungled government response isn't a reason we don't need major healthcare changes in this country.

 
people really showing your ageism in this thread.  Basically it is "well it mostly impacts old people so no big deal let's just ignore it"

 
whoknew said:
So, for example, we should just hire Blackwater to be our military with the Sec't of Defense as oversight?
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That's a really good example.  So is NASA.  Historically well run and accomplished organizations although we'd both agree at a great cost (monetarily).  I do imagine companies like Space X and Blue Origins replacing NASA.  They will be able to do greater things more efficiently and even make money doing it for example.  NASA will go the way of the pony express (postal service).  Amazon, UPS and FedEx can run circles around the USPS and they actually make money doing it.  Just another example for you.

I guess as far as the military goes, when you've already spent enough money and resources to defend and blow up the world multiple times over there isn't much space left over for privatization. On earth anyway.

 
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msommer said:
I could be wrong but I don't think that Gov Newsom was talking about the old CDC kits.

Logically, if he had the ability, right now, to test almost 10% of California's population, why would testing still be restricted severely?
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As I understand it the limiting factor in throughput is not having the tests but processing time.

 
Tom Skerritt said:
And the numbers initially tend to go up at an exponential rate. 
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And that is part of the problem.  When you model these things with exponential growth and are slightly wrong with your date/assumptions, the overstatement of the impact can get ridiculously huge really fast.  Exponential growth has been a tool of fear-mongers for centuries.  Things do tend to grow exponentially until they start hitting limits or action is taken, but slight errors blow things up fast and make it a lot worse than it really is..  

 
Tom Skerritt said:
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
If half the country gets infected, even a low death rate will result in hundreds of thousands of deaths.
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Also depends on the overall age and health of a given population. Presumably younger and healthier populations are going to fair better than older less healthy ones.
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We are generally an obese population, healthy isn't out strong point.

 
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jon_mx said:
And that is part of the problem.  When you model these things with exponential growth and are slightly wrong with your date/assumptions, the overstatement of the impact can get ridiculously huge really fast.  Exponential growth has been a tool of fear-mongers for centuries.  Things do tend to grow exponentially until they start hitting limits or action is taken, but slight errors blow things up fast and make it a lot worse than it really is..  
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Action is taken...like action to limit the exposure and spread by limiting large gatherings...say, at indoor sporting events.

 
whoknew said:
tonydead said:
I like this post.  Good example of why socialism or democratic socialism or whatever we are calling it would suck.  We are seeing first hand how private capitalism, and yes billionaires, are going to crush anything our bloated government can handle.

One note about the testing/quarantining: We only have ~40 deaths.  That means either it hasn't spread as fast as your are assuming OR it's not as big of a deal (deadly) as you are assuming.  Both cannot be true.
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Seems like you are assuming that all governments are as incompetent as the current government. 

I disagree.
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Also, our two best examples of blunting this (SK for sure and arguably China) have socialized, government administered medicine and exerted some pretty extreme government control of the situation. 

 
jon_mx said:
And that is part of the problem.  When you model these things with exponential growth and are slightly wrong with your date/assumptions, the overstatement of the impact can get ridiculously huge really fast.  Exponential growth has been a tool of fear-mongers for centuries.  Things do tend to grow exponentially until they start hitting limits or action is taken, but slight errors blow things up fast and make it a lot worse than it really is..  
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I have no problem with you taking accountability with for your own life. But if you're wrong, you must also be accountable for all of the other lives lost.

 
hammerva said:
people really showing your ageism in this thread.  Basically it is "well it mostly impacts old people so no big deal let's just ignore it"
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The weird part is that (in my experience), this seems to be yet another Millenial/Boomer divide. I've heard from many of my Millenial friends about how they have been unable to convince their Boomer parents that this is a real thing to be cautious about. In most cases, the Boomer parents (in their 60's) don't consider themselves to be those "old people" that it will affect, despite the evidence to the contrary.

Vice actually even had an article about this phenomenon yesterday: If Your Aging Parents Are Ignoring Coronavirus Risks, You're Not Alone

 
///BREAKING: Trump plans to declare a national emergency over the coronavirus outbreak, invoking the Stafford Act to open the door to more federal aid for states and municipalities

--

From twitter

 
Well I am just glad that we got Jerry Fallwell Jr telling the real story on this.  Now it was created by North Korea to destroy us because he heard it from someone at a restaurant    Shouldn't he and his carny friends have something better do like create another fake potion out of silver that cures things and lines there pockets with more money.  

 
Juxtatarot said:
It's encouraging because a death rate below 1% is better than a death rate above 1%.  I've read there is a lot of uncertainty about the ratio.  

The number of flu deaths from 2018 is irrelevant to the point I'm making.
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Their death rate is just below 1% because their ICU's are not being overrun.  When you run out of ventilators and ICU beds, the death rate rises. It's a best-case scenario for a death rate.

 
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hammerva said:
Well I am just glad that we got Jerry Fallwell Jr telling the real story on this.  Now it was created by North Korea to destroy us because he heard it from someone at a restaurant    Shouldn't he and his carny friends have something better do like create another fake potion out of silver that cures things and lines there pockets with more money.  
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I mean if you heard it from someone at a restaurant and it fits with some crazy narrative you have about the world then it must be true. 

 
Sounds like Nancy Pelosi is coming to the rescue of the economy once again, as she did in 2008. History books may look upon Pelosi as one of our greatest leaders ever. 

Grownups have entered the room...

 
tonydead said:
I like this post.  Good example of why socialism or democratic socialism or whatever we are calling it would suck.  We are seeing first hand how private capitalism, and yes billionaires, are going to crush anything our bloated government can handle.

One note about the testing/quarantining: We only have ~40 deaths.  That means either it hasn't spread as fast as your are assuming OR it's not as big of a deal (deadly) as you are assuming.  Both cannot be true.
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It’s a disease that can be passed on by seemingly healthy individuals. Deaths might be low now but they will rise dramatically if hospitals get overloaded. Hopefully we don’t get that point but without proper testing we have no clue where we are sitting, who is spreading it and who should be getting early treatment.

 
Apologies if this has already been posted:

Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro has tested positive for coronavirus, Fox News can confirm.

Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo told Fox News that they are doing further testing to confirm the diagnosis, adding that they expect the second set of testing results later Friday.

The positive diagnosis comes just days after the right-wing Bolsonaro met with President Trump in Mar-a-Lago.

In the wake of the news out of Brazil, a number of White House officials were called into an urgent meeting in the chief of staff's office, Fox News is told.

Bolsonaro had been tested after one of his deputies, who was also in attendance at the Florida resort, was diagnosed with COVID-19.

 
Juxtatarot said:
South Korea has 66 deaths out of 7,869 confirmed cases.  They've been testing like crazy so their denominator is likely more accurate than most other countries.  That's only a 0.8% death ratio. Very encouraging.
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It isn't as encouraging as you hope. I've been using this site https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ to monitor things. I won't vouch for 100% accuracy but it generally seems to match up with what is being reported. South Korea has a lot of positive tests with few deaths but many of those cases are still ongoing and haven't reached a conclusion. When looking at recovered vs. dead the mortality rate is 12% which should be terrifying.

 
jon_mx said:
And that is part of the problem.  When you model these things with exponential growth and are slightly wrong with your date/assumptions, the overstatement of the impact can get ridiculously huge really fast.  Exponential growth has been a tool of fear-mongers for centuries.  Things do tend to grow exponentially until they start hitting limits or action is taken, but slight errors blow things up fast and make it a lot worse than it really is..  
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This post can't be "liked" enough. A succinct, spot on summation of exactly what's going on right now.

Now, hopefully the action being taken is the break in the chain that's needed. But action is being taken and there's every reason to have hope that the "exponential growth" numbers will bear out to be flawed because of it.

 
Amused to Death said:
Apologies if this has already been posted:

Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro has tested positive for coronavirus, Fox News can confirm.

Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo told Fox News that they are doing further testing to confirm the diagnosis, adding that they expect the second set of testing results later Friday.

The positive diagnosis comes just days after the right-wing Bolsonaro met with President Trump in Mar-a-Lago.

In the wake of the news out of Brazil, a number of White House officials were called into an urgent meeting in the chief of staff's office, Fox News is told.

Bolsonaro had been tested after one of his deputies, who was also in attendance at the Florida resort, was diagnosed with COVID-19.
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Do we have a current chief of staff?

 
msommer said:
That's some serious learning you have been through since ebola times.
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Actually you have it ###-backwards.  Numerous people laughed at me as I correctly tried to explain exponential growth is related to a constant growth rate.  They thought it was funny and really had no clue.  But thanks for mis-remembering and rewriting history.  

 
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jon_mx said:
Actually you have it ###-backwards.  Numerous people laughed at me as I correctly tried to explain exponential growth is related a constant growth rate.  They thought it was funny and really had no clue.  But thanks for mis-remembering and rewriting history.  
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Oh, I remember "it's exponential in the rivers" alright

 
msommer said:
Don't know what this means

South Korea processes 20K tests per day with results back in less than 12 hours

Why is testing restricted in the US
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IKR = I know right, I agree with you

See above = see mine 3 posts up

Im as baffled as you or anyone else why we cannot ramp up the throughput of testing.

 
tonydead said:
I like this post.  Good example of why socialism or democratic socialism or whatever we are calling it would suck.  We are seeing first hand how private capitalism, and yes billionaires, are going to crush anything our bloated government can handle.

One note about the testing/quarantining: We only have ~40 deaths.  That means either it hasn't spread as fast as your are assuming OR it's not as big of a deal (deadly) as you are assuming.  Both cannot be true.
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I'm bringing this over from the other thread so that everyone can see it.  It helps to illustrate how we can have 40-60 deaths, have a lot of people infected, and still trend towards the death rates that the WHO and other countries are clearly seeing. Some of the variables can be picked at and could be changed, but hopefully you find some value in it.

I've had time to digest the spreadsheet @icon posted last night.  Some of the variables could be wrong, and can be adjusted to change things.  But it does a great job of pointing out the issues with death rates/confirmed cases, etc.

Sheet is here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZSuR2yc-8JpMAuuhXR7Qw3xQfjTDdcEM1Q5WvKoz3cw/edit#gid=0

Let's imagine that sheet is accurate and understand what the numbers really mean:

Number of People Infected: 203,854 - That sounds like a lot!  How on earth are there 200k people infected in the USA and our medical centers aren't being overrun?

Number of People in Incubation Stage -110,050 - This means that over half of the US infections are people that are in the incubation stage, ie, they are showing no symptoms and don't know they have the corona virus.  These are people that are being caught in South Korea.  These are people that are NOT being caught anywhere else.  

Number of People in pre-hospitalization stage - 192,757 - 95% of people in this country with the corona virus are in the PRE-hospitalization stage.  That means their possible trip to the ICU is in the future.

Now some of the variables in the spreadsheet may be inaccurate and I'll leave it to others to debate whether or not those are right/wrong and adjust numbers.  But this is the single best tool I've seen on these boards since we've been discussing this to illustrate the reality of the situation.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
This post can't be "liked" enough. A succinct, spot on summation of exactly what's going on right now.

Now, hopefully the action being taken is the break in the chain that's needed. But action is being taken and there's every reason to have hope that the "exponential growth" numbers will bear out to be flawed because of it.
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It doesn't mean the growth numbers were flawed...it means the precautions taken worked to flatten the curve.  Which is the whole point of these actions.  The exponential growth assumes not taking such precautions.  Claiming it was about fear mongering is just flat out false and a dangerous position (which is part of why the government’s first response was so poor).

 
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