no question that many of the rich are going to get richer....pretty much every recession ever.The 1% is going to use this crisis as an excuse to steal everything that isn't bolted down and regular people are going to get screwed. Same as day 1.
I think you're right but I don't have the guts to sell my long-term holds. All new money going into Roth/401K is gonna sit in cash for a while though.I think the market will take another 30% dump before recovery begins
I moved all my 403b money into cash when the S&P was about 2800.I think you're right but I don't have the guts to sell my long-term holds. All new money going into Roth/401K is gonna sit in cash for a while though.
I would like to keep the investment talk in the stock thread if possible.I moved all my 403b money into cash when the S&P was about 2800.
New money going in is all stocks
honestly, unless you are flush, I wouldn't be spending a dime on anything that isn't necessary. cash will be king, the more you have of it, the closer you will be to becoming a king.I'm going to do my part to stimulate the economy during the recovery by spending what I can within reason. Targeting local small businesses as much as possible. This is all under the assumption I'm able to keep my job, as well as my wife keeping hers. Though her job (airline) could be cut back on hours or pay at some point. We will see.
- Kitchen Remodel. We had one estimate done back in January and they priced it about 12k. We'll get another estimate or two after all this and just go with it. That'll help that company, plus any employees and subs.
- Restaurants. Sit down restaurants, where I can tip more than the usual 20%.
- New Car? I want a Tesla. I need a Tesla.
- Furnace. My furnace is 21 years old. I'm in Minnesota. You can imagine what would happen if this thing ####s the bed in the middle of January. Lots of small local places who install furnaces.
Yep, there will be billion dollar handouts and the government will wave a thousand dollar bill with the other hand so we don’t notice.The 1% is going to use this crisis as an excuse to steal everything that isn't bolted down and regular people are going to get screwed. Same as day 1.
While I agree, I feel like it's my duty to do something. Even buying a furnace, I'm supporting some local installer company, employees, shipping company, Lennox (or whatever brand) and their workers. I'm certainly not capable of doing ALL of the above (kitchen, car, furnace, etc) but can do at least some of it for myself and others.honestly, unless you are flush, I wouldn't be spending a dime on anything that isn't necessary. cash will be king, the more you have of it, the closer you will be to becoming a king.
No dining in is allowed here whatsoever. It won’t be long until that is true everywhere, IMO.While I agree, I feel like it's my duty to do something. Even buying a furnace, I'm supporting some local installer company, employees, shipping company, Lennox (or whatever brand) and their workers. I'm certainly not capable of doing ALL of the above (kitchen, car, furnace, etc) but can do at least some of it for myself and others.
Yep, I was adding onto my original post where this is all stuff for after the Covid crisis.No dining in is allowed here whatsoever. It won’t be long until that is true everywhere, IMO.
Saw this meme floating around today and thought there was some sense to it.Yep, there will be billion dollar handouts and the government will wave a thousand dollar bill with the other hand so we don’t notice.
Local market here is probably going to go under. Most of their revenue is from selling microbrews on tap, but they can't do that and are limited to selling groceries, which they don't have a lot of. They're really just a neighborhood store where you'd pick up a loaf of bread or some candy or ice cream, and people from the neighborhood stop in and have a beer and hang out for a while. Really nice people. They already laid off all of their employees and are trying to stay open with just the husband and wife running it.No dining in is allowed here whatsoever. It won’t be long until that is true everywhere, IMO.
The small business hit and the hit to those living paycheck to paycheck that lose their jobs will be sad chapter of this pandemic.Local market here is probably going to go under. Most of their revenue is from selling microbrews on tap, but they can't do that and are limited to selling groceries, which they don't have a lot of. They're really just a neighborhood store where you'd pick up a loaf of bread or some candy or ice cream, and people from the neighborhood stop in and have a beer and hang out for a while. Really nice people. They already laid off all of their employees and are trying to stay open with just the husband and wife running it.
I assume this or a similar story is being played out all over the nation. Final death of mom and pop shops.
keep people fed and shelteredSo what's the thousand dollar check for everyone going to accomplish?
Seems like it should only go to people that are actually being affected right nowkeep people fed and sheltered
I really like the "rent hibernation" that California is proposing for small businesses...seems like a no-brainer if it doesn't endanger the banks.
Does every citizen get one or just the middle class and below?Giving money to every citizen is what makes the most sense to me. The main reason, there is no way for them to audit and stop people from taking advantage of the situation. Giving cash to the citizens insures that it will be put back in the economy.
Personally, I don’t care. I get the fact that the upper class may not actually spend $1000. It’s of such small consequence that I don’t care.Does every citizen get one or just the middle class and below?
how do you quickly figure that out?Seems like it should only go to people that are actually being affected right now
I don’t think that’s overly negative. I think it’s likely to happen.Not to be overly negative, but the implications of this global pandemic may be felt for a lot longer than the actual pandemic lasts.
I'm mostly concerned about the specter of job losses, not just for me but the overall economy. Small businesses may fold and I imagine that a lot of large companies will start laying off people if their business is not expected to snap back.
Job losses plus the perceived and actual loss of wealth (stock market) will affect consumer spending, which is a huge driver of global economic activity.
Things will come back, but it may take a long time like we saw post-2008.
I have no idea.how do you quickly figure that out?
I think this is a worthwhile discussion.I don’t think that’s overly negative. I think it’s likely to happen.
I think that is a reasonable forecast - Q2 and Q3 likely down before we see positive growth later in the year.My best guess is a recession but not a depression. I'm basing that on past epidemics on some of the current datapoints, but that may be optimistic. Negative growth in Q2 and Q3 and then positive growth in Q4 and beyond. There's been a lot of discussion whether or not it's a slow recovery or quick recovery, I could see it being somewhere in the middle but so many unknown variables at this point...even the top economists don't agree from what I've seen and heard.
Buy 20, $50 Gift certificates to local small businesses so they can get past this. If everyone does something like this, the economy won't crash so hard.I have no idea.
Nothing in my job life changes (unless my tenants stop paying me I guess but that's unlikely given their job status). While some other people have a complete loss of income.
Meanwhile we both get a grand. Just doesnt seem right ya know
I can look into that. If they dont sell gift cards they better startBuy 20, $50 Gift certificates to local small businesses so they can get past this. If everyone does something like this, the economy won't crash so hard.
I actually think depression is on the table...in 1929, over 5 days, market dropped 25%. We’re at that point now, and we know more is coming. Goldman advised of a sub-2000 S&P 500...not that I’m qualified, but I could see it dropping more than that as true panic sets in.I think this is a worthwhile discussion.
Even the govt doesn't know how this plays out.
My best guess is a recession but not a depression. I'm basing that on past epidemics on some of the current datapoints, but that may be optimistic. Negative growth in Q2 and Q3 and then positive growth in Q4 and beyond. There's been a lot of discussion whether or not it's a slow recovery or quick recovery, I could see it being somewhere in the middle but so many unknown variables at this point...even the top economists don't agree from what I've seen and heard.
One word: panicMy Question, how is China's major index only down 9% on the year?
But we have taken a 30% bath??
Fear mongering by Mnuchin for the stimulus package. 20% unemployment?
Not really. Our markets were at least 20% overinflated before this thing even started. Our markets had chose to ignore risk and fundamentals for quite some time—momentum was the only thing propelling it to ridiculous evaluations. Tesla was up to $900 per share for barely being profitable for a couple of quarters. Sure—panic probably played a small part—but it wasn’t the major part. If you factor in the fact that our leadership didn’t take the virus seriously until the last couple of weeks— that added fuel to the fire. Our president first said that virus was a hoax—and then days later said it was a “flu and that you could still go to work with a mild case of it”. Ineptitude had as much to do with the drop as panic has.One word: panic
The market definitely got way ahead of fundamentals, but this sharp and precipitous drop is clearly fear-based. The fear factor in the market now (evidenced by the VIC) is proof positive of the prevailing sentiment.Not really. Our markets were at least 20% overinflated before this thing even started. Our markets had chose to ignore risk and fundamentals for quite some time—momentum was the only thing propelling it to ridiculous evaluations. Tesla was up to $900 per share for barely being profitable for a couple of quarters. Sure—panic probably played a small part—but it wasn’t the major part.
It's all over the place right now.. akaSo what's the thousand dollar check for everyone going to accomplish?
I’ve seen it compared to the crew of Apollo 13 turning it off and drifting home. Then spending that time figuring out they could start it back up when it was time.Posted this in another thread and got no reaction.
I think there’s an answer.
When a national emergency gets declared, all market activity should cease.
A separate currency should be issued weekly. Anyone who doesn’t need it can opt out.
There is a catalog of approved goods and services, and approved vendors. Everyone gets the same allotment of currency weekly. Essential goods and services include staple foods and supplies to survive.
Those who accrue the currency can convert it to a to be determined value exchange, whether it be tax credits, bonds, or other benefits.
During this period, the main economy halts. It goes on as long as an independent board of scientists and doctors deems prudent.
No one really suffers during this period, and all are provided for.
Commerce that anyone wants to engage in outside of the emergency economy is allowed under regulated conditions.
When emergency is over, so is the bulk of the panic. The main economy goes back into effect, with minimized damage.
We are apt to repeat what is happening now in the Fall. Something like what I documented will save lives and allow for the economy to resume when the crisis is over.
Need to include Amazon. A lot of folks for go local retailers for Amazon. I've been trying to convince my wife to buy local vs Amazon.My hope is people will realize just how much small businesses matter. I know I have been guilty of buying from the "big stores" (Walmart, Sam's club, Best Buy, etc..) to save a few dollars.
But this crisis has already made us buy dog food, treats, etc. from the local pet store, instead of saving a few bucks by buying from Walmart.
We normally only eat out 2 to 4 times a month. But plan to order takeout from our local restraunt's a few times this week as they are getting killed.
Going forward we will be spending more locally to support our community and I hope others do as well.
I hope this is not true. If so that is horrible.Anybody hear about this kind of stuff?
thot leedurr
@DocDre
7h
My brother got laid off yesterday from Marriott. He applied for unemployment; they called to check his employment status. Marriott HR says he’s NOT laid off but on a ZERO hour schedule. So he can’t qualify for unemployment NOR does he have health insurance.
Problem I see is in the near term many won't survive. In NJ, NY & CT bars are closed down. Restaurants can only serve take out or delivery and that stops at 8pm. I talked to a few owners around here and they are getting killed, almost no one is orderingMy hope is people will realize just how much small businesses matter. I know I have been guilty of buying from the "big stores" (Walmart, Sam's club, Best Buy, etc..) to save a few dollars.
But this crisis has already made us buy dog food, treats, etc. from the local pet store, instead of saving a few bucks by buying from Walmart.
We normally only eat out 2 to 4 times a month. But plan to order takeout from our local restraunt's a few times this week as they are getting killed.
Going forward we will be spending more locally to support our community and I hope others do as well.