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Covid and the Economy (1 Viewer)

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Binky The Doormat said:
Anybody hear about this kind of stuff?

thot leedurr

@DocDre

7h

My brother got laid off yesterday from Marriott. He applied for unemployment; they called to check his employment status. Marriott HR says he’s NOT laid off but on a ZERO hour schedule. So he can’t qualify for unemployment NOR does he have health insurance.
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I work for Marriott(in Canada) and once I don’t get work for 7 straight days, I’m eligible for ei.

 
towney said:
Need to include Amazon.  A lot of folks for go local retailers for Amazon.  I've been trying to convince my wife to buy local vs Amazon.
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Wal Mart and Meijer put out all of the small business here before Amazon came along.  I do support and shop local as much as possible.  I feel for the businesses that started up in the last couple of years and now have to close because of the pandemic.

 
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Penguin said:
snogger said:
My hope is people will realize just how much small businesses matter. I know I have been guilty of buying from the "big stores" (Walmart, Sam's club, Best Buy, etc..) to save a few dollars.

But this crisis has already made us buy dog food, treats, etc. from the local pet store, instead of saving a few bucks by buying from Walmart.

We normally only eat out 2 to 4 times a month. But plan to order takeout from our local restraunt's a few times this week as they are getting killed.

Going forward we will be spending more locally to support our community and I hope others do as well. :thumbup:  
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Problem I see is in the near term many won't survive. In NJ, NY & CT bars are closed down. Restaurants can only serve take out or delivery and that stops at 8pm. I talked to a few owners around here and they are getting killed, almost no one is ordering
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yep.. we had a couple new ones open in the last 6 months.. They were already cash strapped just trying to get up and running.. I expect this to pretty much take them out :(  

 
Binky The Doormat said:
Anybody hear about this kind of stuff?

thot leedurr

@DocDre

7h

My brother got laid off yesterday from Marriott. He applied for unemployment; they called to check his employment status. Marriott HR says he’s NOT laid off but on a ZERO hour schedule. So he can’t qualify for unemployment NOR does he have health insurance.
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That sounds strange. I thought furloughed employees, which I believe is the case now for Marriott employees, are still eligible for unemployment. Unemployment does vary by state because the state provides it, but I hope whoever is being denied is pushing back.

 
snogger said:
My hope is people will realize just how much small businesses matter. I know I have been guilty of buying from the "big stores" (Walmart, Sam's club, Best Buy, etc..) to save a few dollars.

But this crisis has already made us buy dog food, treats, etc. from the local pet store, instead of saving a few bucks by buying from Walmart.

We normally only eat out 2 to 4 times a month. But plan to order takeout from our local restraunt's a few times this week as they are getting killed.

Going forward we will be spending more locally to support our community and I hope others do as well. :thumbup:  
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Yeah, I think we're going to pick up some BBQ from a local place here tonight.  I hope more people do go ahead and order take out so these places stay afloat.

 
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With all the talk of many people being laid off or at least furloughed, I assume the talk of the payroll tax reduction has died down?  Anyone hear anything recently that they might still do the payroll tax reduction? Just the stimulus payout to everyone?

 
Binky The Doormat said:
Anybody hear about this kind of stuff?

thot leedurr

@DocDre

7h

My brother got laid off yesterday from Marriott. He applied for unemployment; they called to check his employment status. Marriott HR says he’s NOT laid off but on a ZERO hour schedule. So he can’t qualify for unemployment NOR does he have health insurance.
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In 2009 we had every other week furloughs for a few months

i was able to claim, but this was in Michigan and also may be up to the company.  I had actually gone contract to direct a few months earlier and the contact house was still on the hook for part of it and tried to challenge that I left voluntarily.  I argued my contract expired (which technically it did) and was able to claim 

 
Would it not be better for "Amazon" or Grocery Stores to just ration and give the food out in say $100 quantities and just bill the Federal Government? Instead of checks just make sure people are being handed sacks of groceries so they don't have to steal and tax our Police and Emergency Systems? 

Just a question

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Would it not be better for "Amazon" or Grocery Stores to just ration and give the food out in say $100 quantities and just bill the Federal Government? Instead of checks just make sure people are being handed sacks of groceries so they don't have to steal and tax our Police and Emergency Systems? 

Just a question
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Logistical nightmare

 
ghostguy123 said:
Logistical nightmare
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Well be that as it may, I have a family member that is a Publix General Manager and pretty soon it' going to be drive thru groceries using an app. 

So the only logistics at that point is the check not going to Citizens but going direct to the companies. They have the resources in place to make it NOT a logistics nightmare. 

We are going to add 5 Trillion in debt anyways so how does what I'm suggesting really make a nightmare?

 
The ##### of all of this is how do you implement all of this stimulus, helicopter money, etc. under a nearly zero interest rate environment? What is that going to do to the value of the dollar? We have been using up our ammuntion for nearly two decades trying to sustain an economy based on debt. Now deficits/debt are going to explode even more. Is deflation of assets followed by hyperinflation of necessities in the cards?

As they say, "May you live in interesting times." That isn't meant to be a blessing.

 
Man, I so want to support the restaurants that are doing carry-out, curbside, and delivery, and we love to eat out.  But, I am so paranoid right now about coronavirus on food and packaging though.  Has anyone heard anything definitive on this?  I can wipe down the packaging, but what about prepared food?  Risk can't be zero.

Ugh, so many things suck all around.  I hate how much we don't know.

 
TripItUp said:
My Question, how is  China's major index only down 9% on the year?

But we have taken a 30% bath??
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Consider the source? Do you think China is reporting 100% truth? 

Ministry of Pain said:
Well be that as it may, I have a family member that is a Publix General Manager and pretty soon it' going to be drive thru groceries using an app. 

So the only logistics at that point is the check not going to Citizens but going direct to the companies. They have the resources in place to make it NOT a logistics nightmare. 

We are going to add 5 Trillion in debt anyways so how does what I'm suggesting really make a nightmare?
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Last week I used an app (Instacart) that I normally use for delivery of groceries for curb-side pick-up. No problems, other than the store was empty when I they selected my stuff, but the shopper was able to go thru and ask me if such and such was an appropriate replacement. They could do something with no shoppers in the store and only curb-side or home delivery. They could probably easily put limits on certain things to prevent people from over-buying.

 
dickey moe said:
The ##### of all of this is how do you implement all of this stimulus, helicopter money, etc. under a nearly zero interest rate environment? What is that going to do to the value of the dollar? We have been using up our ammuntion for nearly two decades trying to sustain an economy based on debt. Now deficits/debt are going to explode even more. Is deflation of assets followed by hyperinflation of necessities in the cards?

As they say, "May you live in interesting times." That isn't meant to be a blessing.
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I get this thinking, and I was right there with you when The "No Payroll Tax" was first discussed as I felt that not only would build more debt, but shorten the life span of S.S. quicker then it is already being.

But at this point, with the stock market now down below 20k and the real possibility of a Great recession, rather then a recession, something needs to be done.

It will be a short term gain for a Long term pain, probably starting this fall/winter.
The old :kicksrock:  down the road.. 

 
Not sure if this is something that can be done or what the ramifications would be, but found it an interesting way to possibly help.. ( Have no idea who the author is)

1. Give the entire country a 90 day pass on all mortgage payments. The lenders can add those 3 payments to the end of each loan. This will give renters the same relief as landlords will get mortgage payment relief.

2. Give the entire country a 90 day pass on car payments. The same principle as #1. 

3. Give the entire country a 90 day pass on credit card payments. 

4. If you could do the same for utilities, that would be great. 

5. Continue with testing and social distancing until we get through this. 

 
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snogger said:
Not sure if this is something that can be done or what the ramifications would be, but found it an interesting way to possibly help.. ( Have no idea who the author is)

1. Give the entire country a 90 day pass on all mortgage payments. The lenders can add those 3 payments to the end of each loan. This will give renters the same relief as landlords will get mortgage payment relief.
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Same deal for renters?

 
dickey moe said:
snogger said:
Not sure if this is something that can be done or what the ramifications would be, but found it an interesting way to possibly help.. ( Have no idea who the author is)

1. Give the entire country a 90 day pass on all mortgage payments. The lenders can add those 3 payments to the end of each loan. This will give renters the same relief as landlords will get mortgage payment relief.
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Same deal for renters?
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I think that is what he meant with the bold part.. Since Landlords would get a break they, in theory, would pass that to renters :shrug:  

 
Dan Lambskin said:
In 2009 we had every other week furloughs for a few months

i was able to claim, but this was in Michigan and also may be up to the company.  I had actually gone contract to direct a few months earlier and the contact house was still on the hook for part of it and tried to challenge that I left voluntarily.  I argued my contract expired (which technically it did) and was able to claim 
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This could be someone just trying stir things up on Twitter.  CAN YOU IMAGINE IT???!!!

Wanted to run this by the group to see if it might be true.  

 
Bill Ackman thinks we should shutdown the country for 30 days :oldunsure:  

. ....The government pays wages until we reopen,” Ackman Tweeted. 

“With exponential compounding, every day we postpone the shutdown costs thousands, and soon hundreds of thousands, and then millions of lives, and destroys the economy,” the hedge fund manager Tweeted. 

The activist investor added that no one should default or have their home foreclosed. Instead, it should be “a 30-day rent, interest and tax holiday for all.” 
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Mr. Ected said:
Consider the source? Do you think China is reporting 100% truth? 

Last week I used an app (Instacart) that I normally use for delivery of groceries for curb-side pick-up. No problems, other than the store was empty when I they selected my stuff, but the shopper was able to go thru and ask me if such and such was an appropriate replacement. They could do something with no shoppers in the store and only curb-side or home delivery. They could probably easily put limits on certain things to prevent people from over-buying.
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And all these folks not working could be hired on to help assist these Seniors so they can stay inside their homes and quarantine themselves. 

 
How do you stimulate an economy that isn't there?  

They are going to bombard the system with cash until it's all useless.  Then we'll see the the re-set that so many have looking for. 

 
snogger said:
1. Give the entire country a 90 day pass on all mortgage payments. The lenders can add those 3 payments to the end of each loan. This will give renters the same relief as landlords will get mortgage payment relief.

2. Give the entire country a 90 day pass on car payments. The same principle as #1. 

3. Give the entire country a 90 day pass on credit card payments. 

4. If you could do the same for utilities, that would be great. 
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Does the US govt. have the power to abrogate contracts like this?  I think not - this is a pipe dream.  They have to go at it from the other side - supplying funds to pay these bills.

I do find it amazing the number of places that are instantly holding out their hands.  Boeing, airlines, movie theaters down to small operations.  Eat and #### money in the same breath, with leverage.

 
Sand said:
Does the US govt. have the power to abrogate contracts like this?  I think not - this is a pipe dream.  They have to go at it from the other side - supplying funds to pay these bills.

I do find it amazing the number of places that are instantly holding out their hands.  Boeing, airlines, movie theaters down to small operations.  Eat and #### money in the same breath, with leverage.
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At this point everyone is throwing "stuff" against a wall to see what sticks.. As others have said Everything is on the table, it's a matter of getting enough support from both sides to pass something quickly before a great recession is here.

We are All going to pay for whatever they decide upon. So , as McConnell so bluntly said "gag on it, but get it done" :mellow:  

 
Question: any chance the modified UBI solution exacerbates the unemployment problem?  In other words, does it make companies more likely to have (or have deeper) lay offs if they know there is a more substantial safety net? Unlikely to change actions of the big companies, but seems many smaller companies are trying to do right by their employees.  Anyway, just a thought I had and wanted perspective on.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Would it not be better for "Amazon" or Grocery Stores to just ration and give the food out in say $100 quantities and just bill the Federal Government? Instead of checks just make sure people are being handed sacks of groceries so they don't have to steal and tax our Police and Emergency Systems? 

Just a question
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That would be awesome for the grocery stores, but the checks are supposed to help the economy......meaning all types of businesses. I suppose you could argue that one could now use the 100 they were going to spend on food somewhere else, but I think that would be a flawed assumption as many people are stating to lose work and may not have the original 100. Just cut checks and let people choose how to spend it.....if thats what is decided. 

 
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TripItUp said:
Does every citizen get one or just the middle class and below?
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Trump said a couple days ago that there would be an income limit. Threw out 85k and below but neither this or the amount is nailed in. I gathered it may be more than 1k split in time.

 
Cities like mine (nola) that rely on tourism are screwed.   

Obviously nobody's traveling right now.  When do they start traveling again? Nobody is going to have any extra cash when this is all over. The economic devastation to hotels and restaurants in New Orleans is going to be extreme as it will be in the other destination cities.

I know from personal experience running restaurants in New Orleans since the early nineties that if you don't put a good bit of money away during March April and May then you might as well plan on closing by August.   I'm going to go out on a limb and say we lose at least 25% of the restaurants here if not a lot more.

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Not really.  Our markets were at least 20% overinflated before this thing even started.  Our markets had chose to ignore risk and fundamentals for quite some time—momentum was the only thing propelling it to ridiculous evaluations.  Tesla was up to $900 per share for barely being profitable for a couple of quarters. Sure—panic probably played a small part—but it wasn’t the major part.  If you factor in the fact that our leadership didn’t take the virus seriously until the last couple of weeks— that added fuel to the fire.  Our president first said that virus was a hoax—and then days later said it was a “flu and that you could still go to work with a mild case of it”. Ineptitude had as much to do with the drop as panic has. 

In regards to the economy—I do think that lower to middle class people will get screwed once again.   The airlines and big corporations have had bull runs of 8-10 years—and the government will give them multi-billion/trillion dollar bailouts to keep them around—but see what they do for the mom/pop restaurants, breweries, gyms, shops and soo many more types of businesses.  Their businesses will be forced to close and their employees will lose their jobs—all while a company like Boeing will get billions from the government.  The same company that lied and deceived  safety regulators of the max—which ended up being nothing short of a death trap.   The gap between the super wealthy and the rest will grow exponentially because of this—which is the second slap in the face after the humanitarian toll 
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I had a good laugh when Don said Boeing is doing a wonderful job. 

The 1% get richer while they wave 1k to calm us poorer poppers.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
I think I sent you the same article this morning, I liked it a lot and I fear what is going to happen in the coming weeks. 

That fear leads to market volatility and you get what we have right now. 

Excellent thread topic Trip
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I wonder if we still get the 1 oz bag of peanuts, or is that being held hostage in the airline's help us package..

 
90+% of my business is down for the count, as i facilitate goods and services for the bar/restaurant/cafe industry.

i have 2 partners - one is  Jersey based in a neighboring town to Teaneck, which is in full disater mode.  he has been quarantining himself for the past week or so. he's currently asymptomatic and feeling great, but we all know that can jam on a dime with this virus. 

 seeing clients and businesses we have had solid relationships with for years now shutting down for good, or perched precariously on that ledge, is a gut punch.  lotta hourly "paycheck to paycheck" employees now stranded. i've grown to know so many of them, as i make dozens of stops weekly - some great drinking partners, folks who would hit the track with me, would bring me gifts from "home" (lotta Island/West Indies/Caribbean workers along my Brooklyn/Queens stops). warmest and most gracious souls up in there ... this is devestating for them, and the longer term ramifications are gonna be staggering. hard working people who just want a better life for their families, as do all of us. 

great folks, that lot - salt of the earth, indeed. 

"say a prayer for the common foot soldier" 🙏

i will be on ice, business wise, as long as this is mandated ... no wfh option, as it's all done on the streets, and those streets and avenues and boulevards are barren now. 

currently in my 7th day of self-isolation.  no light. 

 
It'd be a kick in the gut if landlords raise rent during this time. The notice to renew my lease comes at the end of this month.

 
Punxsutawney Phil said:
Doesn't China own most of our debt?  Can't we just subtract the total cost of the Wuhan from what we owe them?
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Well, unless you believe the conspiracy theory put forth by the Foreign ministry Spokesperson from China:

2/2 CDC was caught on the spot. When did patient zero begin in US? How many people are infected? What are the names of the hospitals? It might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Be transparent! Make public your data! US owe us an explanation!
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Then we owe the world..   :mellow:  

 
Everything seems shaky as all hell to me.  The government is just oozing with desperation with all this stimulus stuff.........and this thing has just STARTED!!!  We havent even had rioting yet.  

If the economy is at a stand still 2 months from now this will look really really bad to put it mildly.  

 
So other than stocks, what is going to be a way that people make money during/after this crisis?  I don't mean any illegal or unethical type stuff either.

How can someone with about 100k of liquidity make a score?

Is it going to be real estate again?

 
ghostguy123 said:
Everything seems shaky as all hell to me.  The government is just oozing with desperation with all this stimulus stuff.........and this thing has just STARTED!!!  We havent even had rioting yet.  

If the economy is at a stand still 2 months from now this will look really really bad to put it mildly.  
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My bff moved out of the area a month ago. Her bro is a big time heroin druggie and blows through money way too fast. He's homeless living in his car. He calls her begging for more money. She has blocked him for her own sanity. He gets 500 a mo pension and 400 a mo from their mother's trust. Plenty. But no. It's blown the first week every time.

As far as I knew he didn't remember where I lived from 12 years ago. Yesterday I'm in the shower and I hear doorbell ringing, knocking on door urgently. I ignore it and it goes on for an hour. It's him! He found where I live! And today he's here. He hasn't been violent but I don't know how bad heroin withdrawal can be. 😟

 
Druggies are the absolute most toxic humans on the planet.   They will do anything for a fix no matter who they hurt emotionally/physically/financially. 

 
snogger said:
Back to $1,000 per american, $500 for children.. and if we are still in crisis mode in 6 weeks then another round of checks.

Some rumors of cutoff being at $75,000/individuals $150,000 for couples.

now the waiting game to see how much :porked: is added. 
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I’m definitely not a fan of this. A guy who made $78,000 last year and is out of work gets the shaft? Someone who made $70,000 and is still working whether it be from home or as an essential service employee gets the check? Not well thought out IMO. Just pay everyone. 

 
Hope you are safe, Curly.

It's natural to want to help someone in need but, as I'm sure you probably know, giving money to an addict is usually more harmful than helpful.

 
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