Covid and the Economy (1 Viewer)

[James Daulton]

I disagree.  People have been spending more on groceries but less on everything else. Incomes are down on aggregate but individually they're either up (industries that are giving bonuses and ot), stagnant (industries that can support wfh), down slightly (industries that furlough workers so their employees can collect unemployment) or down (industries that had to lay people off entirely and will need to rehire). I don't know what the final statistics will be for that fourth category but i suspect that most people will fall into one of the first 3. 

So i expect that there will be some money.  

Spending in some sectors may actually be up.  Retail (groceries), medical equipment, restaurants( delivery) and consumer goods (cleaning supplies, exercise equipment, etc) will probably see a spike in sales while others drop to zero. Most sectors will be down, and the numbers for March will be terrible, but there's some good news. 

First, there's a tremendous amount of pent up demand right now.  The first week that the quarantines are lifted, good luck getting a haircut. Or going to a kid's movie.  Or any kind of entertainment, concerts, sports, bars, restaurants, they're all going to cash in because they're Outside. Try getting a cleaning at the dentist's or a regular physical - the backlog will be ridiculous.  

Second, there's a lot of seasonal demand that's about to hit.  People will need propane tanks, grills, burgers and dogs.  They'll need shorts and t shirts and sandals and lawnmowers and swimsuits. 

Third, people have been putting off important purchases because they simply can't make them. 

Let's assume the quarantine ends April 30th in most locations.  

Yes, fewer new people will want to buy a car in may 2020 than may 2019. No question, many will be skittish and the percent of possible buyers will be down.  

But all the people who wanted a new car in March or April or may or June will have created a backlog.

So the stagnant months will hurt, and the auto manufacturers that furloughed employees will still have horrific spring numbers, but their may and June numbers could be as high or higher because they'll have a smaller piece of a bigger pie.  I don't expect them to make permanent layoffs.  

There's a lot of industries that will be impacted in weird ways. Tax prep will be split across several more months than usual so demand that was lower from January to April than usual will get spread across more months. Movies and TV shows will be back to work but the summer blockbusters may suffer because there's been delays in production. A lot of subscription services will see mass cancellations and i personally expect some to merge to retain their combined subscriber base because they can't buy new content because it hasn't been under development.  

But overall I suspect that the economy will roar back. 

I appreciate the detailed thought but respectfully disagree.  Many many people will find their old jobs gone forever.  Worldwide demand is depressed and that will massively impact a manufacturing sector already in recession before this.  Companies that had to lay off and furlough people will be extremely hesitant to add them back until they have confidence that the demand is there.  Jobs like wages are fluid down but sticky back up.

I hope you're right but we're seeing unemployment at unprecedented levels with anther couple of months to go.  There's absolutely no way the country will all get back to work before mid-late summer.  The economy was trending down before the virus, wages were flat, 3+ months of shut down will be critical to many areas.

Like I said, I hope you're right. 

 

[bostonfred]

I appreciate the detailed thought but respectfully disagree.  Many many people will find their old jobs gone forever.  Worldwide demand is depressed and that will massively impact a manufacturing sector already in recession before this.  Companies that had to lay off and furlough people will be extremely hesitant to add them back until they have confidence that the demand is there.  Jobs like wages are fluid down but sticky back up.

I hope you're right but we're seeing unemployment at unprecedented levels with anther couple of months to go.  There's absolutely no way the country will all get back to work before mid-late summer.  The economy was trending down before the virus, wages were flat, 3+ months of shut down will be critical to many areas.

Like I said, I hope you're right. 

Manufacturing will lag for products that have unused inventories. Definitely. You don't hire people to make widgets when all the shelves are full of widgets.  

But

Manufacturing is only a fraction of the economy

Manufacturing of things that have unused inventories is a fraction of that fraction. 

There's pent up demand for all but a fraction of those manufactured goods.

So I agree that a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of the economy will be slow. It's a bad time to be a ski manufacturer. 

The same thing is true for the demand side of the equation.  There are people who are out of work and won't be able to buy things, even with direct stimulus.  

But the fundamentals are different from any other downturn in history.  This wasn't caused by economic fear.  And while there's definitely uncertainty, this wasn't driven by a sense of economic fear. 

If there's a lingering effect it will be because we didn't kill this thing off. That's the real fear - if the quarantines get lifted and people still don't go out because they're afraid of getting sick. We absolutely need to see this through, and being too late to start peeling the band aid probably cost us trillions. 

 

[prosopis]

Anything new on the relief funds? or unemployment? or food stamps?

I count on you guys for my news.

 

[Poke_4_Life]

Manufacturing will lag for products that have unused inventories. Definitely. You don't hire people to make widgets when all the shelves are full of widgets.  

But

Manufacturing is only a fraction of the economy

Manufacturing of things that have unused inventories is a fraction of that fraction. 

There's pent up demand for all but a fraction of those manufactured goods.

So I agree that a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of the economy will be slow. It's a bad time to be a ski manufacturer. 

The same thing is true for the demand side of the equation.  There are people who are out of work and won't be able to buy things, even with direct stimulus.  

But the fundamentals are different from any other downturn in history.  This wasn't caused by economic fear.  And while there's definitely uncertainty, this wasn't driven by a sense of economic fear. 

If there's a lingering effect it will be because we didn't kill this thing off. That's the real fear - if the quarantines get lifted and people still don't go out because they're afraid of getting sick. We absolutely need to see this through, and being too late to start peeling the band aid probably cost us trillions. 

I'm not an economist, but I think you're painting a very rosy picture.  I think some of that pent up demand will just vanish.

My wife and I have already discussed that we're forgoing any large purchases for the time being and we're both fully employed with stable future prospects.  In January we discussed getting a new car later this year, and we've scrapped that for now.  Plus we've driven like 100 miles the last 4 weeks, why buy a new car? 

We're nearing the stage of selling our home and buying a new (different) home as well and we've planned to hold off on that for now.  We're worried about the housing market due to future foreclosures and a possible glut on the local market. 

We've always been conservative, have over 75% equity in our house, and substantial savings and this is how we're approaching these times. 

Tons of uncertainty will make people more conservative, demand just won't be there.  

 

[bostonfred]

I'm not an economist, but I think you're painting a very rosy picture.  I think some of that pent up demand will just vanish.

My wife and I have already discussed that we're forgoing any large purchases for the time being and we're both fully employed with stable future prospects.  In January we discussed getting a new car later this year, and we've scrapped that for now.  Plus we've driven like 100 miles the last 4 weeks, why buy a new car? 

We're nearing the stage of selling our home and buying a new (different) home as well and we've planned to hold off on that for now.  We're worried about the housing market due to future foreclosures and a possible glut on the local market. 

We've always been conservative, have over 75% equity in our house, and substantial savings and this is how we're approaching these times. 

Tons of uncertainty will make people more conservative, demand just won't be there.  

I wouldn't trust any one economist to try to predict what's going to happen after this. There's definitely a lot of people like you.  There's all different types of people. There's a million variables that nobody can predict. There is no historic precedent. 

And if this drags on, then all bets are off.

But

If this is "cured" - meaning that there's a very small number of active cases that are being tracked closely and quarantined properly and eventually eradicated, maybe better treatments are in place with vaccines in development, or whatever gets people to go outside again...

What's ARE you planning to do when this is over?  Are you going to get a haircut?  Go to a bar or restaurant?  Take the kids to an amusement park before the summer is over?  Do you think any of those places will be empty? 

Malls were hurting before this.  Do you have any idea how badly people want to go to a mall right now?  

Do you think you'll be able to get a cheap hotel room near a beach when people feel safe again?  

Think about how much a ticket to an NFL game will go for when all the die hard sports fans haven't seen live sports since early March?  

Yes there are people who will be conservative on big purchases. There's also people whose car died before this. There's people who lost their jobs.  There's others who have made money and haven't had anywhere to spend it except food rent and Amazon purchases.  That's not a huge percentage of the population.  But a much higher percentage of that small percentage will be itching to buy things. 

I understand the gloom and doom argument but I'm not fully convinced. I think there's a huge opportunity for the economy to bounce back fast. And if it shows better than expected early on, then even the conservative pessimists like you come out and play.  

 

[Politician Spock]

One person's spending is another person's income. Unless everyone immediately goes back to spending like they were before, incomes will be lost. In fact, they're already lost. The question is what percentage of them will return. Anyone thinking it will be 100% is fooling themselves. 

 

[TripItUp]

One person's spending is another person's income. Unless everyone immediately goes back to spending like they were before, incomes will be lost. In fact, they're already lost. The question is what percentage of them will return. Anyone thinking it will be 100% is fooling themselves. 

It will take a while to match the apex of the most recent bull run...it certainly won't be this year and I would bet against 2021 as well.

 

[Courtjester]

I am on boston's side here. People are facing a pandemic and they are out in droves today despite an order to stay home. My sister texted me that the fast food drive ups were packed to the gills over lunch. This is a different time and place--businesses will reopen--yeah, some mom and pop places may struggle. People are dying for normalcy and to put this whole thing behind us and frankly that is what scares me the most.  We have to reopen slow and orderly--if we face another flareup and shutdown, that would be catastrophic. 

My optimism may also be because I am in a town with a huge military presence and so they still have paychecks to spend. I work for the government/my wife is in education, we have guaranteed jobs and plan to keep spending like we did before. 

Now ask me about credit card defaults six months to a year from now and that could be a problem because I bet a lot of people have been churning plastic to pay for food during this time.

 

[Morton Muffley]

Consumer psychology suggests to me that people will save rather than spend for fear that they will ne next if/when this virus comes back.  So after the initial tamp down, I dont expect a boom for the above reason.  Add in unemployment as companies take a similarly cautious approach and it's a recipe for extended recession.

 

[Nugget]

I wouldn't trust any one economist to try to predict what's going to happen after this. There's definitely a lot of people like you.  There's all different types of people. There's a million variables that nobody can predict. There is no historic precedent. 

And if this drags on, then all bets are off.

But

If this is "cured" - meaning that there's a very small number of active cases that are being tracked closely and quarantined properly and eventually eradicated, maybe better treatments are in place with vaccines in development, or whatever gets people to go outside again...

What's ARE you planning to do when this is over?  Are you going to get a haircut?  Go to a bar or restaurant?  Take the kids to an amusement park before the summer is over?  Do you think any of those places will be empty? 

Malls were hurting before this.  Do you have any idea how badly people want to go to a mall right now?  

Do you think you'll be able to get a cheap hotel room near a beach when people feel safe again?  

Think about how much a ticket to an NFL game will go for when all the die hard sports fans haven't seen live sports since early March?  

Yes there are people who will be conservative on big purchases. There's also people whose car died before this. There's people who lost their jobs.  There's others who have made money and haven't had anywhere to spend it except food rent and Amazon purchases.  That's not a huge percentage of the population.  But a much higher percentage of that small percentage will be itching to buy things. 

I understand the gloom and doom argument but I'm not fully convinced. I think there's a huge opportunity for the economy to bounce back fast. And if it shows better than expected early on, then even the conservative pessimists like you come out and play.  

I like your story, but I’m with Poke.  I have no desire to be near a mall, or a crowd, or a sporting event. I bought a $100 gift card to my favorite locally owned sports bar and I am hoping I can use it by next April.  My next major purchase will be another pair of running shoes. 

 

[snogger]

I like your story, but I’m with Poke.  I have no desire to be near a mall, or a crowd, or a sporting event. I bought a $100 gift card to my favorite locally owned sports bar and I am hoping I can use it by next April.  My next major purchase will be another pair of running shoes. 

Until there is a vaccine, or there are no more cases, my family is right there with you.
We had  tickets to the Minnesota Twins Opener and another game.. Not sure if they honor those tickets for another game, if the season goes on, if I'll go or not.
We also have tickets for the Crue, Leppard, Poison, Joan Jett concert for June 27th.
I doubt very much that happens in June and, again without a vaccine, not sure we'll go.  

 

[James Daulton]

Until there is a vaccine, or there are no more cases, my family is right there with you.
We had  tickets to the Minnesota Twins Opener and another game.. Not sure if they honor those tickets for another game, if the season goes on, if I'll go or not.
We also have tickets for the Crue, Leppard, Poison, Joan Jett concert for June 27th.
I doubt very much that happens in June and, again without a vaccine, not sure we'll go.  

Yep.  I planned on getting tons of concert tickets, Ravens, O's, etc.

How many will attend these events until there's a vaccine?  Going to be a long, slow recovery. 

 

[Poke_4_Life]

I wouldn't trust any one economist to try to predict what's going to happen after this. There's definitely a lot of people like you.  There's all different types of people. There's a million variables that nobody can predict. There is no historic precedent. 

And if this drags on, then all bets are off.

But

If this is "cured" - meaning that there's a very small number of active cases that are being tracked closely and quarantined properly and eventually eradicated, maybe better treatments are in place with vaccines in development, or whatever gets people to go outside again...

What's ARE you planning to do when this is over?  Are you going to get a haircut?  Go to a bar or restaurant?  Take the kids to an amusement park before the summer is over?  Do you think any of those places will be empty? 

Malls were hurting before this.  Do you have any idea how badly people want to go to a mall right now?  

Do you think you'll be able to get a cheap hotel room near a beach when people feel safe again?  

Think about how much a ticket to an NFL game will go for when all the die hard sports fans haven't seen live sports since early March?  

Yes there are people who will be conservative on big purchases. There's also people whose car died before this. There's people who lost their jobs.  There's others who have made money and haven't had anywhere to spend it except food rent and Amazon purchases.  That's not a huge percentage of the population.  But a much higher percentage of that small percentage will be itching to buy things. 

I understand the gloom and doom argument but I'm not fully convinced. I think there's a huge opportunity for the economy to bounce back fast. And if it shows better than expected early on, then even the conservative pessimists like you come out and play.  

The bold is probably the crux of our philosophical difference of our opinions.

I think there will be waves of more outbreaks after the current quarantine is lifted.  A vaccine is may be over a year away, so the next time people gather in large groups there will be more outbreaks.  

I had rough plans to attend MLB games in three cities this summer, an NFL game this Fall, and have tickets to Thunder games for this season that will go unused.  We also attended 6 concerts last year and have no plans to attend any more this year, our last one for a while will be the one we attended in February.  (After which we both had 'colds' for a few weeks. )

I have talked to others that feel the same, large gatherings just have no appeal to me currently and I don't know if that appeal will return until we reach your nirvana in bold above.

My work also used to have a large travel element, now that we're using WFH and virtual meetings I believe that will be curbed permanently.  

There will be significant changes in our economy for a while. 

 

[Punxsutawney Phil]

One person's spending is another person's income. Unless everyone immediately goes back to spending like they were before, incomes will be lost. In fact, they're already lost. The question is what percentage of them will return. Anyone thinking it will be 100% is fooling themselves. 

Don't forget about the extra trillions that will be infused into the economy.  Even if smart people like FBGs save, the majority of the country is paycheck to paycheck.  They will spend the stimulus money they get.  The problem is that these people are going to be the same ones to default on everything.  Then the rich swoop in and buy everything at a bargain to help stabilize the economy.  Let's hope it works!

 

[fruity pebbles]

Don't forget about the extra trillions that will be infused into the economy.  Even smart people like FBGs save, the majority of the country is paycheck to paycheck.  They will spend the stimulus money they get.  The problem is that these people are going to be the same ones to default on everything.  Then the rich swoop in and buy everything at a bargain to help stabilize the economy.  Let's hope it works!

Rinse and repeat. The real money’s made in recessions.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

The bold is probably the crux of our philosophical difference of our opinions.

I think there will be waves of more outbreaks after the current quarantine is lifted.  A vaccine is may be over a year away, so the next time people gather in large groups there will be more outbreaks.  

I had rough plans to attend MLB games in three cities this summer, an NFL game this Fall, and have tickets to Thunder games for this season that will go unused.  We also attended 6 concerts last year and have no plans to attend any more this year, our last one for a while will be the one we attended in February.  (After which we both had 'colds' for a few weeks. )

I have talked to others that feel the same, large gatherings just have no appeal to me currently and I don't know if that appeal will return until we reach your nirvana in bold above.

My work also used to have a large travel element, now that we're using WFH and virtual meetings I believe that will be curbed permanently.  

There will be significant changes in our economy for a while. 

This is where I’m at.  Maybe not to the degree personally regarding large gatherings...but I certainly understand there’s going to be a significant part of the population who’ll be very cautious if not more so about ‘getting back out there like before’.

If that’s the case, the economic wet blanket is going to be pretty damp just due to the lasting effects of what we’re all going thru.  This hasn’t just happened to us (USA)...this is a global pandemic.  We’re going thru perhaps the greatest social sciences shift in history.  Expecting anything to snap right back to preCOVID levels feels short-sighted.

 

[Politician Spock]

Don't forget about the extra trillions that will be infused into the economy.  Even if smart people like FBGs save, the majority of the country is paycheck to paycheck.  They will spend the stimulus money they get.  The problem is that these people are going to be the same ones to default on everything.  Then the rich swoop in and buy everything at a bargain to help stabilize the economy.  Let's hope it works!

The velocity of money was slowed to a crawl on a dime. The stimulus didn't come from tax revenues. It came from the Fed printing and buying government debt. The reason this won't even come close to be inflationary is both the US economy and the world economy (which uses the US dollar as the reserve currency) have experienced the worst deflationary forces in probably the history of the world. It will take years before the velocity of money to return. 

 

[SoBeDad]

Older people will be slow to return to travel by plane. They'll take years to return to cruise travel, even if a vaccine becomes available. They'll do more local trips by car.

Housing prices and confidence in the economy will decrease. Even with low mortgage rates. Lease terms will become more negotiable and evictions will be slower, which will impact prices of rental units.

Nurses and allied professions will be paid more. But people have discovered that some surgeries and procedures are not necessary.

 

[bostonfred]

The bold is probably the crux of our philosophical difference of our opinions.

I think there will be waves of more outbreaks after the current quarantine is lifted.  A vaccine is may be over a year away, so the next time people gather in large groups there will be more outbreaks.  

I had rough plans to attend MLB games in three cities this summer, an NFL game this Fall, and have tickets to Thunder games for this season that will go unused.  We also attended 6 concerts last year and have no plans to attend any more this year, our last one for a while will be the one we attended in February.  (After which we both had 'colds' for a few weeks. )

I have talked to others that feel the same, large gatherings just have no appeal to me currently and I don't know if that appeal will return until we reach your nirvana in bold above.

My work also used to have a large travel element, now that we're using WFH and virtual meetings I believe that will be curbed permanently.  

There will be significant changes in our economy for a while. 

Right and I fully recognize that this may linger. That's definitely the bear case, and I agree that I'm assuming a bullish outlook on the recovery. 

I believe that there are several phases here

1) Nationwide quarantine to get to the other side of the bell curve of new cases.  We're getting close to this point.  

2) Nationwide quarantine continues to reduce the number of new cases below the point of hospital overrun. This is critical because it's diverting all kinds of resources. 

3) Nationwide quarantine continues until the numbers are low enough that we can identify where specific cases are. Testing is now fully possible because available test resources exceeds number of suspected cases. 

4) Full quarantines begin to lift.  At-risk populations, people who may have been exposed, and people who can work from home still do. Non essential businesses begin to reopen, but with social distancing processes in place.  Travel is heavily limited.  New cases pop up and hard quarantines return regionally.  

5) Worldwide numbers drop to a similar point.  International travel restrictions can be lifted or reduced to specific countries, but quarantine rules begin to reflect the amount of time it takes to get a conclusive positive test. 

6) Treatment and vaccines become available.  The risk and severity both begin to reduce.  People return to "it's a bad flu" mentality.  

7) Full availability of vaccine and treatment options. New cases are now extremely rare and deaths are almost unheard of. 

I think we're around step one. I don't think we hit steps 6 and 7 until a year from now,  maybe a little more, but that's full normalcy (assuming no new game changers).

But I think step 5 happens this summer and that's when the economy starts to reopen. And while I fully agree that there are a lot of people who will be hesitant to go out until 6 or 7, I think you're underestimating how many people will.  

 

[Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think the crackdown on cartels right before a huge cash stimulus is a coincidence.  They want to keep as much if that money here as possible.

 

[snogger]

Until there is a vaccine, or there are no more cases, my family is right there with you.
We had  tickets to the Minnesota Twins Opener and another game.. Not sure if they honor those tickets for another game, if the season goes on, if I'll go or not.
We also have tickets for the Crue, Leppard, Poison, Joan Jett concert for June 27th.
I doubt very much that happens in June and, again without a vaccine, not sure we'll go.  

Yep.  I planned on getting tons of concert tickets, Ravens, O's, etc.

How many will attend these events until there's a vaccine?  Going to be a long, slow recovery. 

Seeing a few more polls.. last one was 3 out of 4 would NOT attend a game until there is a vaccine..

Unless this disappears miraculously, i can't see myself, or my family, going to a concert, ball game, malls, etc. until a Vaccine is released.  :(  
 

 

[James Daulton]

Seeing a few more polls.. last one was 3 out of 4 would NOT attend a game until there is a vaccine..

Unless this disappears miraculously, i can't see myself, or my family, going to a concert, ball game, malls, etc. until a Vaccine is released.  :(  
 

And I just bought Ravens club level tix last year which I loved.  Now the thought of passing by so many people in a confined space kind of gives me the heebeejeebees.

The economy imho is going to struggle  mightily until a vaccine is developed. 

 

[lod001]

Once the virus has been neutralized via treatment or vaccine, it would not surprise me to see companies laying off people in order to reset salaries lower. It's what they dream about. They have their built in excuse. Now with a huge supply of people already out of work, they don't have to worry now about getting some clueless dolt after they let their high priced good worker go. There will be someone willing to take the same job at a lower wage. Good companies won't do this but there are plenty that very well may. 

 

[adonis]

There's simply no way the society can open back up without other measures in place and not have a repeat of the spikes that lead us to do social distancing and shut it all down.

It's simply folly to think we can just open back up.  The ONLY reason things are as "good" as they are is because we shut the country down nearly, and kept people home.

If we open back up without some significant societal changes, contact tracing, better access to tests, better access to antibody tests to show if you've had it or not, we're going to be screwed.

Any talks of reopening should be predicated on what the process is for keeping us all safe after reopening...because just reopening with some better access to testing is going to be a recipe for exponential growth like we saw before.

 

[James Daulton]

Once the virus has been neutralized via treatment or vaccine, it would not surprise me to see companies laying off people in order to reset salaries lower. It's what they dream about. They have their built in excuse. Now with a huge supply of people already out of work, they don't have to worry now about getting some clueless dolt after they let their high priced good worker go. There will be someone willing to take the same job at a lower wage. Good companies won't do this but there are plenty that very well may. 

Yep.  Companies are quick to lay off, really slow to hire.  Look at how pathetic wage growth has been the last 10 years despite a scarcity of workers.  Companies realize that labor is typically their number one cost and that workers really don't have many  options.

What with unions crushed. 

 

[Mr Anonymous]

My niece just listed her house after months of prep. Whoops. It would have sold in days, I expect it to take forever now. 

Update? And market location?

If she had it well prepped and it was in a previously hot market, I'm guessing she's in escrow by now.

 

[shader]

I disagree.  People have been spending more on groceries but less on everything else. Incomes are down on aggregate but individually they're either up (industries that are giving bonuses and ot), stagnant (industries that can support wfh), down slightly (industries that furlough workers so their employees can collect unemployment) or down (industries that had to lay people off entirely and will need to rehire). I don't know what the final statistics will be for that fourth category but i suspect that most people will fall into one of the first 3. 

So i expect that there will be some money.  

Spending in some sectors may actually be up.  Retail (groceries), medical equipment, restaurants( delivery) and consumer goods (cleaning supplies, exercise equipment, etc) will probably see a spike in sales while others drop to zero. Most sectors will be down, and the numbers for March will be terrible, but there's some good news. 

First, there's a tremendous amount of pent up demand right now.  The first week that the quarantines are lifted, good luck getting a haircut. Or going to a kid's movie.  Or any kind of entertainment, concerts, sports, bars, restaurants, they're all going to cash in because they're Outside. Try getting a cleaning at the dentist's or a regular physical - the backlog will be ridiculous.  

Second, there's a lot of seasonal demand that's about to hit.  People will need propane tanks, grills, burgers and dogs.  They'll need shorts and t shirts and sandals and lawnmowers and swimsuits. 

Third, people have been putting off important purchases because they simply can't make them. 

Let's assume the quarantine ends April 30th in most locations.  

Yes, fewer new people will want to buy a car in may 2020 than may 2019. No question, many will be skittish and the percent of possible buyers will be down.  

But all the people who wanted a new car in March or April or may or June will have created a backlog.

So the stagnant months will hurt, and the auto manufacturers that furloughed employees will still have horrific spring numbers, but their may and June numbers could be as high or higher because they'll have a smaller piece of a bigger pie.  I don't expect them to make permanent layoffs.  

There's a lot of industries that will be impacted in weird ways. Tax prep will be split across several more months than usual so demand that was lower from January to April than usual will get spread across more months. Movies and TV shows will be back to work but the summer blockbusters may suffer because there's been delays in production. A lot of subscription services will see mass cancellations and i personally expect some to merge to retain their combined subscriber base because they can't buy new content because it hasn't been under development.  

But overall I suspect that the economy will roar back. 

This is some unreal optimism. I can’t argue it because I know so many people irl that feel the exact same way. 
 

I don’t agree with the optimism, but it all depends on the timelines.  

 

[eoMMan]

First batch of stimulus checks have been sent.

 

[Wingnut]

Mine was deposited into my account this morning at 8:30am.

 

[shuke]

Our local skating rink is closing its doors forever.

 

[Jayrod]

Got my stimulus check today.  Woot.

I think the global economy is in big trouble and the US is as well.  Deflationary trends like we've never seen being staved off with trillions in cash.  Meanwhile nobody is buying anything outside of survival needs and nobody is making anything not deemed a necessity.  Wages are going to follow prices due to the massive unemployment.

 

[Faust]

SUVs Get Parked in the Sea, Revealing Scope of U.S. Auto Market Glut

 

[Faust]

Economist who predicted last financial crisis warns of coming 'Greater Depression'

 

[Sand]

SUVs Get Parked in the Sea, Revealing Scope of U.S. Auto Market Glut

Bloomberg needs to learn the difference between "in" and "on".  It went from salacious to .

 

[brun]

A bunch of people got furloughed where my son works. He's still working full time. With the added $600, he would be making about $350 more per week if he was furloughed too.

I don't begrudge people getting extra unemployment so they can survive. It just seems like people who are working shouldn't be getting less than they would if they were sitting at home..