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**Footballguys Dynasty Show: Dynasty Trade of the Week** (1 Viewer)

Johnny B. Goode said:
These are still two separate deals but I think you won the second deal by a good amount. I would be interested to hear if they feel you redeemed yourself (in my opinion, yes, you came out on top total, but I don’t have a podcast :)  )
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Absolutely these are still two separate deals, no argument there.  And having a podcast isn't a pre-req to providing your view!  I appreciate your perspective and agree with your take.  

 
Two points-questions @Dez:

If a 28-year-old low pedigree back opting out was a pivot point to a rise in value for CEH, what does that say about CEH?

What does Damien Williams or CEH's situation have anything to do with his prospect profile, which is my biggest concern?

 
Chad Parsons said:
Two points-questions @Dez:

If a 28-year-old low pedigree back opting out was a pivot point to a rise in value for CEH, what does that say about CEH?

What does Damien Williams or CEH's situation have anything to do with his prospect profile, which is my biggest concern?
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Pretty sure low pedigree goes out the window when you play a pivotal role in a Super Bowl winning season. Yes, opportunity matters

 
Chad Parsons said:
Two points-questions @Dez:

If a 28-year-old low pedigree back opting out was a pivot point to a rise in value for CEH, what does that say about CEH?

What does Damien Williams or CEH's situation have anything to do with his prospect profile, which is my biggest concern?
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I prefer Taylor to CEH as a dynasty asset (this seems to be the common debate), but I'm a bit unsure what it is about his 'prospect profile' that you find concerning. If we're talking about really one year of high-level production, a less than ideal athletic profile, then I suppose I get it but he has first round draft capital and that means a lot for RBs particularly.

I would have thought that draft capital would override a lot of your concerns, based on what I understand (which may be not much!) about the way you and Jordan approach dynasty. If he's a top 12 RB performer as a rookie (which doesn't seem all that unlikely, given his situation), would you then change your position on him?

 
Draft capital absolutely counts. Yes, late production in college, sub-sized, lack of measured athleticism all departures from (especially) Round 1 picks, and successful ones, historically. 

KC situation could be so great that as long as CEH is the 1A it doesn't matter with those things I mentioned, but betting the outlier profile is historically risky even with highly drafted players.

 
Chad Parsons said:
Draft capital absolutely counts. Yes, late production in college, sub-sized, lack of measured athleticism all departures from (especially) Round 1 picks, and successful ones, historically. 

KC situation could be so great that as long as CEH is the 1A it doesn't matter with those things I mentioned, but betting the outlier profile is historically risky even with highly drafted players.
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Thanks Chad, appreciate the response. This is interesting to me in terms of how it compares to your enthusiasm for Alexander Mattison. You and Jordan consistently bring him up as a player/profile that you want on all your teams, as a day 2 RB, one injury away guy.

I don't disagree as far as him being a high value handcuff (in redraft or dynasty), but there doesn't seem to be anything in his profile (maybe production to some extent and size?) that should make him more desirable than any number of other RBs. In fact, he's pretty much a JAG athletically. As for being a 'day 2 pick', if I'm not mistaken he was the last pick on day 2 (or at least one of the very last). If he was the first pick in round 4, in exactly the same situation behind Cook, would that mean he would no longer be a target player? If Mattison was drafted into CEH's situation, would you also be down on him?

None of this is intended as criticism by the way, just interested in understanding how certain players become 'your guys' so to speak.

Obviously the other significant difference between CEH and Mattison is the cost but that's a different conversation. 

 
Mattison had plenty of positives with his profile, zero glaring weaknesses. Also the price was key - late 2nd in plenty of rookie drafts a la James Conner. Getting a quality Day 2 RB profile that late is pretty rare. While not as good of profiles, it is notable Darrynton Evans and Lynn Bowden are both easily in Round 3 of most drafts this year.

I get what you are saying about the difference of a single pick or handful of picks between round breaks in draft position. It's a blurry line for sure. My model is a progressive curve based on historical data, so while I have plenty of charts and data regarding the firm round lines as the threshold, my main probability metric/driver is a curve, so 32 overall and 33 overall are really close together as opposed to 'this RB is RD1 and the other is RD2' as if they were No.1 overall and No.64 overall in the most extreme example the other way.

The biggest combination of factors I am 'down' on CEH (which is a comment on being bullish or bearish based on the price point to get him) is based on his profile and, more importantly, the cost. If CEH was in last year's class and folks wanted to take him 1.01 over Josh Jacobs, no problem there. This year, it cost(s) 1.01, but among a much stronger collection of RB prospects, especially Jonathan Taylor. If CEH cost 1.05, absolutely, sign me up. But now it's 1.01+ with an even further rise off the Damien Williams news. I am out at that cost as I was before. I am much less reactive to pure situation than the average dynasty GM/ranker/etc. I absolutely miss to varying degrees on players because of this, but prescribe to the mantra of talent over situation as situation changes more than talent in NFL and talent, even if blocked initially, will eventually emerge and find a way.

 
RushHour said:
Thanks Chad, appreciate the response. This is interesting to me in terms of how it compares to your enthusiasm for Alexander Mattison. You and Jordan consistently bring him up as a player/profile that you want on all your teams, as a day 2 RB, one injury away guy.

I don't disagree as far as him being a high value handcuff (in redraft or dynasty), but there doesn't seem to be anything in his profile (maybe production to some extent and size?) that should make him more desirable than any number of other RBs. In fact, he's pretty much a JAG athletically. As for being a 'day 2 pick', if I'm not mistaken he was the last pick on day 2 (or at least one of the very last). If he was the first pick in round 4, in exactly the same situation behind Cook, would that mean he would no longer be a target player? If Mattison was drafted into CEH's situation, would you also be down on him?

None of this is intended as criticism by the way, just interested in understanding how certain players become 'your guys' so to speak.

Obviously the other significant difference between CEH and Mattison is the cost but that's a different conversation. 
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CEH was the last pick of round 1. If he was drafted 1 spot later to KC, would everyone be waving his pedigree around to counter arguments about his bad profile?

 
I would say this as well. If JT had gone to KC and CEH to Indy, what would be the pivot in values? It's worrisome when few, if anyone, had CEH in the first 2 rounds of the NFL Draft or in the top-6/8 of rookie drafts and post-NFL Draft, he's 1.01 more times than not. That is a big change within a strong collection of prospects in '20. It speaks to the situation more than 32 overall IMO. If he went end of RD2 to KC, I think he would still be right there at 1.01/1.02. Could be wrong, but that's my guess. 

 
Chad Parsons said:
I would say this as well. If JT had gone to KC and CEH to Indy, what would be the pivot in values? It's worrisome when few, if anyone, had CEH in the first 2 rounds of the NFL Draft or in the top-6/8 of rookie drafts and post-NFL Draft, he's 1.01 more times than not. That is a big change within a strong collection of prospects in '20. It speaks to the situation more than 32 overall IMO. If he went end of RD2 to KC, I think he would still be right there at 1.01/1.02. Could be wrong, but that's my guess. 
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I totally agree with you on CEH, but depart here. JT never would have been drafted by KC because of specific questions about his profile; namely, that he's not that much of a plus in the passing game. That's what both Kansas City and the Reid systems need out their backs.

 
Chad Parsons said:
I would say this as well. If JT had gone to KC and CEH to Indy, what would be the pivot in values? It's worrisome when few, if anyone, had CEH in the first 2 rounds of the NFL Draft or in the top-6/8 of rookie drafts and post-NFL Draft, he's 1.01 more times than not. That is a big change within a strong collection of prospects in '20. It speaks to the situation more than 32 overall IMO. If he went end of RD2 to KC, I think he would still be right there at 1.01/1.02. Could be wrong, but that's my guess. 
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I don't anyone credible who did not have him going in round 2 of the NFL draft. I don't know anyone credible who did not have him ranked as a top 5, usually top 3 RB, in this draft class prior to the NFL draft.

I had him closing in on Swift before the NFL draft for top player.

All the way back in FFPC best ball drafts in February-March his ADP was 7.8 and which put him as RB5 and rookie 5 off the draft boards. Granted it's not a dynasty rookie draft but a RB is going as RB5 in redrafts he's going in top 6-8 of most drafts.

Seems like only guy who did not know about CEH was you.

 
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menobrown said:
I don't anyone credible who did not have him going in round 2 of the NFL draft. I don't know anyone credible who did not have him ranked as a top 5, usually top 3 RB, in this draft class prior to the NFL draft.

I had him closing in on Swift before the NFL draft for top player.

All the way back in FFPC best ball drafts in February-March his ADP was 7.8 and which put him as RB4 and rookie 4 off the draft boards. Granted it's not a dynasty rookie draft but a RB is going as RB4 in redrafts he's going in top 6-8 of most drafts.

Seems like only guy who did not know about CEH was you.
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Huh? I’m confused. You literally just agreed with the bolden as you state his early ADP was 7.8 when Parsons said it was 6/8 in rookie drafts prior to the NFL draft. That was overall in rookie drafts. Then situation from post draft shot him up to 1.01 on many boards. A big jump in his opinion for situation, is all. And I agree. Dudes Probably gonna ball out because of Mahomes and opportunity but the price is ridiculous.

 
BigAl21 said:
Huh? I’m confused. You literally just agreed with the bolden as you state his early ADP was 7.8 when Parsons said it was 6/8 in rookie drafts prior to the NFL draft. That was overall in rookie drafts. Then situation from post draft shot him up to 1.01 on many boards. A big jump in his opinion for situation, is all. And I agree. Dudes Probably gonna ball out because of Mahomes and opportunity but the price is ridiculous.
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I think so.

 
Chad Parsons said:
Mattison had plenty of positives with his profile, zero glaring weaknesses. Also the price was key - late 2nd in plenty of rookie drafts a la James Conner. Getting a quality Day 2 RB profile that late is pretty rare. While not as good of profiles, it is notable Darrynton Evans and Lynn Bowden are both easily in Round 3 of most drafts this year.

I get what you are saying about the difference of a single pick or handful of picks between round breaks in draft position. It's a blurry line for sure. My model is a progressive curve based on historical data, so while I have plenty of charts and data regarding the firm round lines as the threshold, my main probability metric/driver is a curve, so 32 overall and 33 overall are really close together as opposed to 'this RB is RD1 and the other is RD2' as if they were No.1 overall and No.64 overall in the most extreme example the other way.

The biggest combination of factors I am 'down' on CEH (which is a comment on being bullish or bearish based on the price point to get him) is based on his profile and, more importantly, the cost. If CEH was in last year's class and folks wanted to take him 1.01 over Josh Jacobs, no problem there. This year, it cost(s) 1.01, but among a much stronger collection of RB prospects, especially Jonathan Taylor. If CEH cost 1.05, absolutely, sign me up. But now it's 1.01+ with an even further rise off the Damien Williams news. I am out at that cost as I was before. I am much less reactive to pure situation than the average dynasty GM/ranker/etc. I absolutely miss to varying degrees on players because of this, but prescribe to the mantra of talent over situation as situation changes more than talent in NFL and talent, even if blocked initially, will eventually emerge and find a way.
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Not to hijack this thread to talk about Mattison but he's an interesting example because he comes up on the podcast a lot (btw, I think your podcast has been a terrific addition to football guys).

I guess what I'm trying to drill down on is what is it about Mattison's profile that makes him stand out for you? So that I'm understanding, I assume by 'profile' you're talking about some combination of college production, athleticism, other metrics (e.g. early declare or breakout age for WRs), build/size and draft capital (although maybe that is independent of the profile?).

I'm guessing his positives are college production (although it doesn't seem particularly noteworthy, given the conference he was in and his YPC), perhaps that he had some production as a freshman and also declared before his senior year, and his size/BMI, which indicates he could be a workhorse type back if given the opportunity.

To me all of this is pretty heavily offset by his below average athleticism, which I'd say is a pretty glaring weakness when compared to some other RB prospects. He's essentially a 'plodder' type in a great handcuff situation due to the Minnesota offense. In fact, a large amount of his value seems to derive from that situation and, in particular, being behind a starter who has had durability issues. That circumstance doesn't seem to have anything to do with his profile. In fact, this seems like a situation over talent bet because he is kind of a replaceable talent, especially considering the position he plays. Or are you saying Mattison is an above average RB talent in the NFL?

 
rockaction said:
I totally agree with you on CEH, but depart here. JT never would have been drafted by KC because of specific questions about his profile; namely, that he's not that much of a plus in the passing game. That's what both Kansas City and the Reid systems need out their backs.
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He actually had one of the best targets per route run (best in the last 4 years at least)... just look at the names on that list.

UW doesn’t use their backs in the passing offense very often, but when they did use Taylor they got him the ball. But this isn’t the thread for that debate

 
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I-ROK said:
He actually had one of the best stats per route run (better than Swift who was seen as a pass catching back by many)... UW doesn’t use their backs in the passing offense very often. But this isn’t the thread for that debate, 
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I wasn't going to argue stats but general scouting reports. Scouts were all down on him as a late-down back. I disagree that isn't the place for this. It's important to dynasty valuation. 

 
rockaction said:
I wasn't going to argue stats but general scouting reports. Scouts were all down on him as a late-down back. I disagree that isn't the place for this. It's important to dynasty valuation. 
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Edited with a link... just look at that list... If JT wasn’t an asset in the passing game, UW wouldn’t have forced the ball to him in the passing game

I was just stating this thread may not be the best since it’s about Chad and Jason’s show... but I’m game to have it here if needed; I didn’t want to get scolded

 
I-ROK said:
Edited with a link... just look at that list... If JT wasn’t an asset in the passing game, UW wouldn’t have forced the ball to him in the passing game

I was just stating this thread may not be the best since it’s about Chad and Jason’s show... but I’m game to have it here if needed; I didn’t want to get scolded
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Sure. We can leave to Chad and Jason's show. Sounds fine by me. Also, I'm not disagreeing with the stats because you're right, but they've debated this in other threads. I'm merely going off of consensus scouting. That and fumbles were Taylor's issue. It depends what you put weight on. There's an argument to be had against YPRR at the back position; namely, that those who aren't sent out that much have larger averages per route run because of the scarcity of the usage in the passing game. 

 
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Not a trade but would be interested in hearing the dynasty guys do an episode on the couch to discuss some of your differing opinions, such as Leonard Fournette

thx

 
Standard ppr, 4 pt passing tds 

lamar Jackson (team also owns mahomes)

for

1.11 (while pick was on the clock, drafted Ruggs) and a future first 

 
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12 team 1QB, ppr 18 man active, 10 man taxi. Start 1 rb, 2wr, 1te, 1 rb/wr/te, 1wr/te

2 deals:

Gave Henderson, Lazard for 2021 2nd, 2021 3rd

Gave Sternberger, 2021 2nd, 2021 4, 2021 5 for Irv Smith, 2021 3rd

Different league, 12 team ppr, 28 man rosters, meaningless trade: Gave JaMycal Hasty for James Proche 

 
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