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***OFFICIAL CYDY/Leronlimab Thread***

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Posted (edited)

Below is an abbreviated version of Dave's revised p value chart.  Get his whole chart here.  Dr Yo was definitely assuming a 1:1 treatment to placebo ratio when he made the 30% statement today.  If there were equal numbers of patients in each arm, then 70% deaths in the placebo and 30% of deaths in the treatment arm would be possible.  It's not realistic with a 2:1 treatment to placebo ratio.

Deaths

LL    PL      p value

25    20        .072

24    21        .030

23    22        .019

22    23        .008

21    24        .003

20    25        .001

Edited by Don Hutson
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8 hours ago, Don Hutson said:

If 23 out of 65 passed away in the placebo arm, that would be 35%.  If 22 passed away out of 130 in the treatment arm, that would be 17%.  That seems possible.

To be honest, It’s probably true I hate Cydy, because I think they screw all their stakeholders. The CEO made $9 million last year?

Linked below are mortality rates of the worst patients early in the pandemic. Do you really want to count on a 35% mortality rate in the placebo arm?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7255393/#__sec13title

If Hgen shared those numbers with me I would be running for the door.

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18 minutes ago, Whyatt said:

To be honest, It’s probably true I hate Cydy, because I think they screw all their stakeholders. The CEO made $9 million last year?

Linked below are mortality rates of the worst patients early in the pandemic. Do you really want to count on a 35% mortality rate in the placebo arm?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7255393/#__sec13title

If Hgen shared those numbers with me I would be running for the door.

Whats the odds now,

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2 hours ago, Whyatt said:

To be honest, It’s probably true I hate Cydy, because I think they screw all their stakeholders. The CEO made $9 million last year?

Linked below are mortality rates of the worst patients early in the pandemic. Do you really want to count on a 35% mortality rate in the placebo arm?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7255393/#__sec13title

If Hgen shared those numbers with me I would be running for the door.

Probably the first time you've been honest in this thread

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9 hours ago, Don Hutson said:

The people who sent hate your way are mostly gone.  Those that are still here in this thread are mostly open-minded.

Besides Wyatt? Sure

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Whyatt said:

Do you really want to count on a 35% mortality rate in the placebo arm?

The interim analysis probably doesn't need a mortality rate of 35% for the trial be stopped and an EUA granted.  And I'm not counting on the trial being stopped.  I know it's a longshot.  I'm hoping that leronlimab has a 10% chance of getting an EUA from the interim analysis results.  The stock price will skyrocket if an EUA is granted.  The stock price could go up 10-fold.  I might lose 10% if an EUA isn't granted since I will get out as quickly as humanly possible.  So a 10% chance at a 1,000% stock price increase with only a 10% stock price decline at risk if it fails.  I like those odds.

I'd like to hear your answer to Cav's question:  what do you think the odds are of an EUA from the interim analysis?

Edited by Don Hutson

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29 minutes ago, Sideshow Bob said:

Probably the first time you've been honest in this thread

Is this a cool post?

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18 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

what do you think the odds are of an EUA from the interim analysis?

0.01%

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Posted (edited)

30% (PL M Rate) puts us just below p < .07

31% p < .03

37% p < .003

40% p < .00003

That's a range of 6 deaths

I say the real indicator to which side of the 30% to 40% range we are at is the demographics around the hospitals where the trials were run. Lower income working class and we will be nearer to 40% ( Sad to say but that's the reality)

Also as pointed out, my p values may be a bit conservative due to the method I used ( t-test vs binomial method )

Here's my prediction: if we hit 22/23 and can say we have reduced mortality by over 50% we get EUA and I give that a 30% chance.

Edited by Dave RL

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7 hours ago, Dave RL said:

30% (PL M Rate) puts us just below p < .07

I hope that they would consider giving a EUA in this scenario.  We're in a freaking pandemic without great treatment options for the S/C patients.  30% deaths in placebo with 19% deaths in treatment won't technically provide statistical significance but it comes close and it would be a 37% reduction in mortality which the FDA's Hahn has already said would be tremendous.  It could be said that this scenario would be trending toward statistical significance i.e. it'd have statistical significance if the second half of the trial produced equal numbers.  Fauci used the "trending toward statistical significance" when justifying remdesivir's EUA.

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When the market opens,  adjusted for the stock split,  HGEN will be higher priced than CYDY. It was not to long ago that CYDY was almost twice as high.   

CYDY volume used to be 8 to 10 higher per day.  Now, adjusted for the split, HGEN is 8 to 10 times higher per day than CYDY.  A lot of it due to being on NASDAQ. 

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18 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

I hope that they would consider giving a EUA in this scenario.  We're in a freaking pandemic without great treatment options for the S/C patients.  30% deaths in placebo with 19% deaths in treatment won't technically provide statistical significance but it comes close and it would be a 37% reduction in mortality which the FDA's Hahn has already said would be tremendous.  It could be said that this scenario would be trending toward statistical significance i.e. it'd have statistical significance if the second half of the trial produced equal numbers.  Fauci used the "trending toward statistical significance" when justifying remdesivir's EUA.

The part that is gonna piss me off is when our government magically announces which one of these is approved for treatment about a week before the election.  And I mean which one of these therapeutics: whether it's leronlimab, HGEN, RLF-100 - whatever. I really don't care which one it is - our country needs a solution to this pandemic and we need it sooner rather than later.

And if these are being held back right now for political gain in two weeks.....man........I don't know what else to say about our country. 

(and I'm not trying to start a political debate here - I hate politics and all the arguing that goes with it.)

I just want people to feel better and feel comfortable that Covid can be beaten back so we can all have some positive ju-ju going into 2021.

 

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9 hours ago, Sideshow Bob said:

Besides Wyatt? Sure

This thread is basically Fox News. Any time anyone has a differing opinion from the echo chambered masses, he is personally attacked. Pathetic. 

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11 minutes ago, ConstruxBoy said:

This thread is basically Fox News. Any time anyone has a differing opinion from the echo chambered masses, he is personally attacked. Pathetic. 

Actually, the thread has been D Hutson now for a month and little else.

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Let us be together on this regardless of political beliefs... so we can get back to discussing the statistical significance of tight ends rather than people's lives.

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1 hour ago, Dave RL said:

Let us be together on this regardless of political beliefs... so we can get back to discussing the statistical significance of tight ends rather than people's lives.

Point taken. I could have used a Huffington Post example. Let's not turn stock threads into echo chambers. That is what has happened here, IMHO. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ConstruxBoy said:

Point taken. I could have used a Huffington Post example. Let's not turn stock threads into echo chambers. That is what has happened here, IMHO. 

I don't think you are paying close attention if you haven't seen a lot of criticism about cytodyn in this thread.

Have no issue  myself with any counterpoints but if you are going to be making blanket statements, like Cytodyn is going to get surpassed or not approved  for HIV or Covid, hopefully the person that says these things can back up why they think that's going to be the  case, rather than just throwing out a statement.

Also yesterday Whyatt clearly took a cheap shot in regards to the trial and number of deaths, almost insinuating that leronlimab may be driving that.  If you are going to be throwing gas on a fire with a controversial statement, even if joking, you can expect a response. The number of deaths probably helps Cytodyn here not hurts.

My biggest problem with Whyatt in particular is that he has quoted Adam Feuerstein in the past and that's someone I have no respect at all for.  The Night King lies so if you are going to quote him, Im gonna call that out.  The jury is still out if Whyatt is actually the Night King in disguise, he definitely likes AF quite a bit.

Bottom line @whyatt is an adult and I'm sure  he can handle  it.  He's  not afraid  to make some very bold statements, and that's going to get a response if people don't agree with it.  I'm sure he knows exactly what he says that is going to ignite a little fire.

Edited by Dwayne Hoover

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10 minutes ago, Dwayne Hoover said:

The Night King lies

What lies has Adam Foreskin made about CYDY?

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Posted (edited)

I don't disagree that in general there has been an bit of an "echo chamber" dynamic in this thread and the original stock thread about CYDY.   Hell--for some of us--there were moments where this stock was an exciting run.   With that said--a lot of people know that I sold my position a while ago.  I still think the drug itself has potential--I sold completely out of a lack of respect and trust for the companies management.   Looking back at my investment in this stock (which I ended up making slight profits on)--I did fall into the trap of skewing in my mind the difference between "wanting a stock to go up" vs "thinking a stock will go up".  Anytime I owned this stock--i wanted it to go up because of knowing that I owned some and other members in this community owned some.  When I got out of the stock--my belief system effectively morphed into "I don't think the stock will go up under that management.".    I absolutey believe that ownership of the stock and the "echo chamber" dynamic in here might play a part in some people's judgement about the stock as well.  Just ask yourselves--how many of you guys would proactively invest in a stock with a completely inept CEO and management at this very point in time?   My guess is that the vast majority would say "no".  However--people that are already invested in the stock are less likely to take a step back and ask that same objective question of themselves--and at that point--"they want the stock to go up more than than really think it will".    

Keep in mind--I'm not saying that this stock has no chance of going up in value--nor am I hating on it.  I'm just elaborating on my experience owning the stock and what led to my decision to move on past it.   Regardless of if you guys choose to hold, sell or buy--the only advice I'm giving is to try to be as objective as possible before you come to the decision you do.  

Edited by jvdesigns2002
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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

What lies has Adam Foreskin made about CYDY?

He has twisted Nader's words around during conference calls to make statements that are very misleading.   One thing I recall in particular is when he posted  that CYDY admitted on a call that they weren't qualified to uplist to Nasdaq.  What he said didn't happen.

He's also incredibly disingenuous.   15 minutes after Cytodyn had posted a more than 300 page financial statement to the SEC, Feuerstein acted like he had already ingested and read the whole thing.  Was negative about it without quoting one thing specific.

He did the same thing after Cytodyn posted the early safety data on the M/M trial.  He was already calling the trial a failure based on Cytydyn's press release.  This was before we knew anything about the efficacy portion and the secondary endpoints that they hit.

Aside from all this, he posts immature images like the BS call image during their conference.  His bias against the company is clown like at this point.  A reporter in the industry shouldn't be carrying on so immaturely, hard to respect the guy at all.

Edited by Dwayne Hoover
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3 minutes ago, Dwayne Hoover said:

He has twisted Nader's words around during conference calls to make statements that are very misleading.   One thing I recall in particular is when he posted  that CYDY admitted on a call that they weren't qualified to uplist to Nasdaq.  What he said didn't happen.

He's also incredibly disingenuous.   15 minutes after Cytodyn had posted a more than 300 page financial statement to the SEC, Feuerstein acted like he had already ingested and read the whole thing.  Was negative about it without quoting one thing specific.

He did the same thing after Cytodyn posted the early safety data on the M/M trial.  He was already calling the trial a failure based on Cytydyn's press release.  This was before we knew anything about the secondary endpoints that they hit.

Aside from all this, he posts immature images like the BS call image during their conference.  His bias against the company is clown like at this point.  A reporter in the industry shouldn't be carrying on so immaturely, hard to respect the guy at all.

Sounds to me like everything that he speculated about has turned out to be 100% true, eh?

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

Sounds to me like everything that he speculated about has turned out to be 100% true, eh?

I'm not going to go that far.  He's posting  misleading things before they happen.  He is bound to get burned on this.  You can't carry on this cavalier without eventually stepping in it.

If you think Feuerstein is spot on, then you definitely shouldn't be invested in this company.  Why take a chance on a fraudulent product?

Seriously, you think AF is being sincere in what he posts?  

Edited by Dwayne Hoover

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20 minutes ago, Dwayne Hoover said:

 

Aside from all this, he posts immature images like the BS call image during their conference.  His bias against the company is clown like at this point.  A reporter in the industry shouldn't be carrying on so immaturely, hard to respect the guy at all.

Goes both ways.  One of the biggest Cytodyn supporters (Dr Yo) tweets bizarre gifs 30x's a day and sells clothing with weird cytodyn related phrases.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Dwayne Hoover said:

I'm not going to go that far.  He's posting things misleading things before they happen.  He is bound to get burned on this.  You can't carry on this cavalier without eventually stepping in it.

If you think Feuerstein is spot on, then you definitely shouldn't be invested in this company.  Why take a chance on a fraudulent product?

AF hasn't attacked leronlimab aside from saying the M2M trial was likely a failure.  It was a failure.  The primary endpoints weren't met.  That is why they gave us safety data instead of the topline efficacy data.  It took them forever to give us any efficacy data.  And we're still waiting for the complete results so we're just working on the assumption that what they have told us is true.  Golf Guy's daughter, who does trials in the pharma industry for a living, confirmed that the trial was likely a failure when they gave safety data instead of topline efficacy data.   

AF might be a jerk without any regards for your or Nader's feelings, but he is really smart and has been covering the biotech arena for 20 years.  He can understand things quickly and read between the lines.  Everything he has speculated about has turned out to be true.  You are like a person in their first year of fantasy football who drafts a kicker in the first round and is really confident about it and gets mad when more experienced owners tell him it was a bad pick.  

Edited by Don Hutson

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44 minutes ago, Dwayne Hoover said:

I don't think you are paying close attention if you haven't seen a lot of criticism about cytodyn in this thread.

Have no issue  myself with any counterpoints but if you are going to be making blanket statements, like Cytodyn is going to get surpassed or not approved  for HIV or Covid, hopefully the person that says these things can back up why they think that's going to be the  case, rather than just throwing out a statement.

Also yesterday Whyatt clearly took a cheap shot in regards to the trial and number of deaths, almost insinuating that leronlimab may be driving that.  If you are going to be throwing gas on a fire with a controversial statement, even if joking, you can expect a response. The number of deaths probably helps Cytodyn here not hurts.

My biggest problem with Whyatt in particular is that he has quoted Adam Feuerstein in the past and that's someone I have no respect at all for.  The Night King lies so if you are going to quote him, Im gonna call that out.  The jury is still out if Whyatt is actually the Night King in disguise, he definitely likes AF quite a bit.

Bottom line @whyatt is an adult and I'm sure  he can handle  it.  He's  not afraid  to make some very bold statements, and that's going to get a response if people don't agree with it.  I'm sure he knows exactly what he says that is going to ignite a little fire.

I'm sorry  but I don't believe this statement after reading the thread. 

 

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Anyway, I wouldn't have to come into this thread at all if you would stop mentioning HGEN, which I'm interested in. :D

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I think we can all agree that AF's war with CYDY goes beyond twitter.  When he wrote that email to the patient in Scotland, that just showed how despicable he was.  For someone to go that far shows me that he's a paid shill trying to prevent this company from having any success.  Whether he believes it or not is probably irrelevant to him.  The guy is trashy.

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2 minutes ago, Chaz McNulty said:

I think we can all agree that AF's war with CYDY goes beyond twitter.  When he wrote that email to the patient in Scotland, that just showed how despicable he was.  For someone to go that far shows me that he's a paid shill trying to prevent this company from having any success.  Whether he believes it or not is probably irrelevant to him.  The guy is trashy.

No argument from me at all on him. Seems scummy. 

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"I told you not to buy at $.29 and now that the stock is down to $3 my opinion is completely validated" is a fun argument.

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1 minute ago, Chaz McNulty said:

I think we can all agree that AF's war with CYDY goes beyond twitter.  When he wrote that email to the patient in Scotland, that just showed how despicable he was.  For someone to go that far shows me that he's a paid shill trying to prevent this company from having any success.  Whether he believes it or not is probably irrelevant to him.  The guy is trashy.

What if you felt that people with terminal illnesses were being misled by a company and the company did this to increase their stock price?  Would you reach out to those people or would you stand by silently and let them be victimized?  CYDY is trashy.

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9 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

AF hasn't attacked leronlimab aside from saying the M2M trial was likely a failure.  It was a failure.  The primary endpoints weren't met.  That is why they gave us safety data instead of the topline efficacy data.  It took them forever to give us any efficacy data.  And we're still waiting for the complete results so we're just working on the assumption that what they have told us is true.  Golf Guy's daughter, who does trials in the pharma industry for a living, confirmed that the trial was likely a failure when they gave safety data instead of topline efficacy data.   

AF might be a jerk without any regards for your or Nader's feelings, but he is really smart and has been covering the biotech arena for 20 years.  He can understand things quickly and read between the lines.  Everything he has speculated about has turned out to be true.  You are like a person in their first year of fantasy football who drafts a kicker in the first round and is really confident about it and gets mad when more experienced owners tell him it was a bad pick.  

I don't like people that I don't think are being genuine and that's what I think of Feuerstein.  He's got a very biased agenda and he will get burned at some point soon and I'm going to take a lot of joy when that  happens.

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Posted (edited)

I'm in alignment with much of Don Hutson's criticisms of management. But I do think the Night King went over the line with the terminally ill woman in order to criticize the company.

BTW got back in on CYDY today. Hoping for some good news from the safety board and a little bump from today's presentation.

Edited by Moonlight

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3 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

What if you felt that people with terminal illnesses were being misled by a company and the company did this to increase their stock price?  Would you reach out to those people or would you stand by silently and let them be victimized?  CYDY is trashy.

He's a blogger not a Doctor.  Not only did he reach out to  her, he was making recommendations of other products to look into.  He was Trump like in that one, recommending a medication when he's not qualified to do so.

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1 minute ago, Moonlight said:

I'm in alignment with much of Don Hutson's criticisms of management. But I do think the Night King went over the line with the terminally ill woman in order to criticize the company.

I'd say 90% of the people that post in this thread are  critical of management.  We all seem to be aligned there.  Maybe that's the echo chamber Contrux boy was referring to

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6 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

What if you felt that people with terminal illnesses were being misled by a company and the company did this to increase their stock price?  Would you reach out to those people or would you stand by silently and let them be victimized?  CYDY is trashy.

Just a follow up here, if you believe that Feuerstein is acting in her best interest, you are going down the road again that the drug doesn't work.  Why are you invested?

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Just now, Dwayne Hoover said:

I'd say 90% of the people that post in this thread are  critical of management.  We all seem to be aligned there.  Maybe that's the echo chamber Contrux boy was referring to

Attacking Nader has always been allowed here.  Attacking anything else would lead to a swarm of personal attacks by the bully brigade.  It has gotten better over the last month or two.  A lot of the Truthers have left.

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18 minutes ago, ConstruxBoy said:

I'm sorry  but I don't believe this statement after reading the thread. 

 

Whatever, Ive been pretty critical of Cytodyn

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1 minute ago, Dwayne Hoover said:

Why are you invested?

I believe that leronlimab might show efficacy in the S/C trial.  It did extremely well with the eINDS.  It is an incredibly safe drug.  I trust non-shareholder Otto Yang.

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30 minutes ago, Sideshow Bob said:

"I told you not to buy at $.29 and now that the stock is down to $3 my opinion is completely validated" is a fun argument.

Literally that doesn't apply to anyone.  Whyatt made his first criticism when the price was $1.20.  If it weren't for Covid, the stock price might have gone back to $.29.  Covid happening is sheer luck.  And most of the people who invested at $.29 are no longer shareholders (or they at least sold the vast majority of their shares).  On the other hand, there are a bunch of bagholders who invested at $5-$10 per share who feel like they can't sell until they at least break even.  There are several people who are currently tens of thousands of dollars in the red.

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24 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

I believe that leronlimab might show efficacy in the S/C trial.  It did extremely well with the eINDS.  It is an incredibly safe drug.  I trust non-shareholder Otto Yang.

So Otto Yang's initials, backwards, are YO. And we also have a Dr. Yo promoting this drug? 

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1 minute ago, Don Hutson said:

Literally that doesn't apply to anyone.  Whyatt made his first criticism when the price was $1.20.  If it weren't for Covid, the stock price might have gone back to $.29.  Covid happening is sheer luck.  And most of the people who invested at $.29 are no longer shareholders (or they at least sold the vast majority of their shares).  On the other hand, there are a bunch of bagholders who invested at $5-$10 per share who feel like they can't sell until they at least break even.  There are several people who are currently tens of thousands of dollars in the red.

:lmao:

Yes, the Ponzi scheme. 

:lmao:

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

Literally that doesn't apply to anyone.  Whyatt made his first criticism when the price was $1.20. 

Anyone reading at the time  could  have invested and easily got out with at least 400% profit, if not a whole lot more.  Whyatt was wrong on that one.

Would like to also point out that while HGEN is making some moves now,  it's also deep in the red since he first started  touting it.  Jury is out if it ever gets back to the levels he suggested to buy at.

Edited by Dwayne Hoover

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2 minutes ago, Dwayne Hoover said:

Anyone reading at the time  could  have invested and easily got out with at least 400% profit, if not a whole lot more.  Whyatt was wrong on that one.

Would like to also point out that while HGEN is making some moves now,  it's also deep in the red since he first started  touting it.  Jury is out if it ever gets back to the levels he suggested to buy at.

Does it make you feel better than others have lost as much on another stock as you have lost on CYDY?

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Posted (edited)

Dang, CYDY just jumped from $2.95 to $3.13 in about 5 minutes.

Edited by Don Hutson

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1 minute ago, Don Hutson said:

Does it make you feel better than others have lost as much on another stock as you have lost on CYDY?

Wow, you are really stirring up some bull today.  Im actually  up a lot of money on CYDY,

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1 minute ago, Dwayne Hoover said:

Wow, you are really stirring up some bull today.  Im actually  up a lot of money on CYDY,

Not according to your posts where you bought in between $5 and $6.

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NP just on Fox Business? Just walked past TV and low and behold...

Headline referenced Phase 3 trial.

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