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az_prof

Dynasty: When to Cut Ties to Young Players Who Aren't Contributing?

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For me, the player in question is Miles Boykin who showed promise last year as a rookie in training camp and did ok for a rookie but not great. We were hoping for a leap in his second year but so far it hasn't happened.  I'm starting to think that he isn't going to blossom at least as long as he is in Baltimore. There certainly are WRs who break out in the their third year so I haven't given up hope. But is it better to cut ties and go after one of this year's late rookie picks or rookie FAs that are still on waivers?  

Who is the player that are you are evaluating in this way? 

How long do you hold your rookie picks who aren't elite (ie., first round picks)?

Guys I regret letting go too early: Marvin Jones and Mohamad Sanu.

Guys I am glad I cut ties on: Anthony Miller and Tre'Quan Smith.

Edited by az_prof

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Boykin is an easy drop, was his value ever high enough to value? In the dynasty world it is not easy to determine when to bail and reload. In the past I have held on too long, this past year I was able to time it better. In one league basically moved Ertz for Hockenson and moved 4Net straight up for Sanders. In your scenario. JJAW was my guy I could not let go but after many opportunities I realized it was not going to happen.

In general I prefer to pounce on high rookie draft picks that people bail on.

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I recently traded for Boykin (and a 3rd) giving up Freeman- was the week after Freeman debuted with NYG. I think the start of year 2 for a guy who was always labeled a developmental size-speed freak is too early to cut ties. Of course that depends how deep your league is of course. This league is very deep. I still think if Lamar and Baltimore are going to full unlock the offense, an alpha is the missing link. I am not sure if Boykin can become an alpha but he physically has the skill set. 

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I'm going to have this problem in the off-season. We have to get down to 40 from 51, with 8 as RFAs (you get the auction bid FAAB bucks spent on your player from the RFA pool). I'll be :blackdot:this thread.

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It really depends on roster size and if I need the roster spot. I have the luxury of holding longer in deep bench leagues or if I don’t have anyone to take their roster spot. In general this is where I go:

 

QBs- depends on what kind of opportunity. Is it Jordan Love buried behind Rodgers or Josh Rosen who looked terrible in year one. This one depends on opportunity but I’m probably moving on after 1-2 years if given opportunity and not producing 

RBs- I am dropping after 2 years. The likelihood of contributing is pretty low after that. Henry is an anomaly IMO 

WRs- after year 3 for most. I’ll wait longer (3 yrs) for first round rookie picks. 

TEs- I am probably dropping after 3 years. They take way longer. Irv Smith was mentioned above but he is so young and it takes longer for TEs to emerge. 
 

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I haven’t been able to drop Dante Pettis for some reason despite his zero points each week. I’m hoping for a change of scenery because I think he’s a talent.

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9 hours ago, I-ROK said:

TEs- I am probably dropping after 3 years. They take way longer. Irv Smith was mentioned above but he is so young and it takes longer for TEs to emerge. 

 

Like you said, things definitely change depending on roster sizes and starting requirements but this is exactly why in start 1TE leagues I never use draft capital on a TE.  If you are willing to wait and stay sharp talent is dropped early.

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9 hours ago, I-ROK said:

RBs- I am dropping after 2 years. The likelihood of contributing is pretty low after that. Henry is an anomaly IMO 

You also have “late” bloomers like Drake, Mostert, and Ekeler who are stuck behind incumbents, but I agree that, by and large, the window for most RBs closes after a few years unless they get an opportunity through injury.

Edited by zamboni

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41 minutes ago, djmich said:

Like you said, things definitely change depending on roster sizes and starting requirements but this is exactly why in start 1TE leagues I never use draft capital on a TE.  If you are willing to wait and stay sharp talent is dropped early.

Jonnu Smith was dropped in my league halfway through last year or at the end. Sat on waivers for a while actually. I was all over him as a rookie but learned my lesson to trust my instincts. I do not own him as I didn’t buy back in 

Edited by I-ROK
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2 minutes ago, zamboni said:

You also have “late” bloomers like Drake, Mostert, and Ekeler who are stuck behind incumbents, but I agree that, by and large, the window for most RBs closes after a few years unless they get an opportunity through injury.

Yes but I think these are largely outliers. Ekeler I wasn’t real big on this year to begin with but not because of his own limitations. Mostert I’d argue us a short shelf life ahead of him. Henry is the best example of an outlier out there given his stud status now. Kicking myself here as just before he broke out I chickened our on a 2nd rounder for him... I’m not making myself look real good these last two posts but I promise I’m a good fantasy GM :lol: 

One guy who I think could be a late bloomer is Ronald Jones. For as much as I hate on him I could see him coming through (he’s already doing pretty good) to reward his patient owners. When these RBs come into the league as young as Henry and Jones did, I think you really should be more patient with them. In Henry’s defense, he wasn’t under performing with his opportunities- he had no opportunities 

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Is their name JJ Arcega-Whiteside, having UDFA’s and former 6th round picks who bounced around the league outperform them? Cut.

Anyone else under the age of 25 you can probably hold on to. 

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12 hours ago, IHEARTFF said:

Some others

Andy Isabella

Irv Smith

Anthony Miller

Still holding Isabella for now. He’s had a few peaks, enough to make me wait and see whether it can become more consistent 

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