Pittsburgh entered ’14 with more questions than answers. Could Big Ben and offensive coordinator Todd Haley really coexist? Who would emerge as the #2 WR? Would age along the DL and in the secondary finally catch up to the Steelers? Did they really do enough in recent drafts to warrant a return to glory? By season’s end Pittsburgh emerged as a legit playoff team going 11-5, but that was probably more due to Big Ben as opposed to having definitive yes answers to all of the above questions. Pittsburgh won the AFC North but lost in the Wildcard round. Now what?
What went right: OC Haley could coexist with Roethlisberger and Ben put up the kind of numbers one would expect from a top five QB. Ben tied for first in passing yards and the overall offense was #2 in the NFL. A rare triple play was executed as Le’Veon Bell finished #1 in the AFC in rushing and Antonio Brown led the AFC in passing yards. Pittsburgh had a +4:49 time of possession edge. The offensive line finally limited sacks. 1st year OL coach Mike Munchek made an impact. Pittsburgh allowed just 33, their lowest total in quite some time. The return game was sound, and PK Suisham converted on 29 of 32 field goals.
What went wrong: Bell did not play in the playoff loss to the Ravens and his absence was clearly felt. The run game was a non-factor and too much pressure was put on Ben, who was sacked five times. The defense was no match for Flacco, but the reality was that defensive #’s were not that good all season long. Their 33 defensive sacks represented their lowest total in 24 years. Pittsburgh allowed an abnormally high 64.5% to opposing QB’s. Teams only ran 100 yards per game on them, but their 3.5 per carry average in ’13 skied to nearly 4.4 per carry! I’ve never been a fan of how Pittsburgh replaces their talent. A case in point is that the Steelers prefer to draft lower rated developmental types at CB, bypassing many a higher rated talent. The DL and the secondary have been slow to find younger talent and it showed in ’14 with Pittsburgh having to coax DE/OLB James Harrison out of retirement. Once again the defense forced very few turnovers (21). At times this team looked like a viable Super Bowl contender but losses HOSTING lowly Tampa Bay and at Cleveland (31-10) and at the Jets showed their vulnerability.
2014 draft recap: Ryan Shazier played in nine games and started five, contributing 36 tackles. DE Stephon Tuitt started four games and had just 17 tackles and one sack. He should see significant action in ’15. WR Dri Archer has elite speed but that speed was not converted to game performance. His rookie season was disappointing. On the other hand, young WR Martavis Bryant was activated week seven and made many a downfield play, with 26 receptions for 549 yards and eight TD’s. Everyone knew he had the potential but he grew up faster than anticipated. CB Shaquille Richardson was unrated (NR) and spent time on the Steeler practice squad. OT Wesley Johnson is currently with the Jets. LB Jordan Zumwalt was on IR all season long. DT Daniel McCullers had no stats but the raw NT will get an opportunity to play this fall. TE Rob Blanchflower was cut.
ROSTER ANALYSIS AS OF SEPTEMBER 3RD:
QB: Big Ben is rated as my 4th best NFL QB.
RB: La’Veon Bell is a top ten RB. He’ll miss the 1st two games. DeAngelo Williams is a real nice 2nd option.
WR: Deep, although Martavis Bryant has been suspended games 1-4. Watch to see if rookie Sammy Coates can fill the deep threat role in his absence.
TE: Heath Miller is more than solid. Everyone else used to be more of a filler type (i.e. short use role player), but rookie Jesse James has long term growth potential.
OL: Getting better and more cohesive, but the loss of OC Maurkice Pouncey for about 10 games is a huge blow.
DL: Stephon Tuitt has more upside than current NT Steve McLendon, and reserve Daniel McCullers has potential as well. This time around, the DL is mid-pack in the NFL.
LB: Youngsters Ryan Shazier and Sam Spence are not big, but highly instinctive. There’s plenty of firepower at OLB. I like the way this unit is coming together, but it is true that they lack ILB bulk.
CB: Pittsburgh does NOT like to draft early in the secondary. William Gay and Cortez Allen have been in the system for some time, which helps, but they are not all-pro types or even close. There is little to no ready to go depth.
Safety: Troy Polamalu and his superb instincts will be sorely missed. Shamarko Thomas has some of that ability but is small. The unit as a whole is going to be extremely vulnerable in ’15.
Special Teams: Injuries have cost Pittsburgh two kickers, so they traded for Josh Scobee. Dri Archer has yet to distinguish himself as a return specialist. Bryant may end up taking that role upon his return.
Coaching: Mike Tomlin is well above average. **** LeBeau was let go. Keith Butler takes over. OC Todd Haley can be a lightning rod but his offense clicked all season long in ’14.
TEAM KEYS AS OF SEPTEMBER 3RD: Pittsburgh’s improving OL allowed just 33 sacks in ’14. I’m projecting 43 now with Pouncey out and a more difficult schedule. The run D keeps slipping. They allowed 4.4 per carry in ’14. I’m more concerned with the 64.5% pass D, which loses their long term leaders.
DID THE PRESEASON MEAN ANYTHING? No team wants to play Pittsburgh late in the season but everyone likes to play them in September and October. Pittsburgh looked bad in August in each of the last two seasons but did come on strong in the ’14 regular season. The best news is that Big Ben is ready. He took only two sacks but now with Pouncey out it could get worse, and the Steelers allowed 15 overall in August. RB Williams ran 13-63-1 and that helps ease the loss of RB Bell in games 1-2. I mused up above about rookie WR Sammie Coates. He was 10-179 and could easily be sent on deep routes at times while WR Bryant is sitting out. Really, only the OL looks out of sorts offensively. The defense has issues, especially in the secondary where Buffalo QB’s missed on only three passes. The ledger read over 70% allowed, with just one interception. LB’s Shazier and current reserve Spence combined for 46 tackles. All eyes will be on their run D which was acceptable in August. James Harrison led a sack attack that looked better than I thought they would. PK Scobee hit his two initial kicks, both short ones. Once again Dri Archer is not living up to his return potential.
STRATEGY AND BOTTOM LINE ANALYSIS: In April when the schedules came out this one stood out as being very tough. Pittsburgh has to play Indy and New England. Rivals Baltimore and Cincy avoid both teams. The Steelers open the season in less than 24 hours going to play New England. They’ll do so without RB Bell, WR Bryant, OL Pouncey and a new and limited set of defensive backs. In some ways they are lucky to face Baltimore on a Thursday. Home teams usually have a short week advantage and the Steelers need this edge, especially early in the season. The rest of the 1sthalf schedule is tricky. How will they fare at STL and at San Diego on a Monday night? Can they hold serve at home with one less day of preparation when playing Arizona and its motivated head coach Bruce Arians, who used to tutor Big Ben? The game at KC won’t be easy. They are 16-8 hosting Cincy, who will be happy that the game is not in prime time. The team has holes, but they also will have both Bell and Bryant back before going to San Diego and Big Ben will be ready to roll. 4-4 could turn into 6-4 before going to Seattle. As anyone in the northwest will tell you, the Seahawks still have not forgotten about that Super Bowl loss. They have not hosted the Steelers since that time. Games 12-15 are amazingly tough. They host revenge-minded Indy, go to Cincy (another day game and Cincy is a good December home team), host Denver and then play at Baltimore. 6-4 can easily turn into 8-7 now, and maybe worse. Pittsburgh remains on the road to close the season when they head to Cleveland. Pitt is a great last game team although they are just 2 of 5 at Cleveland lately. BOTTOM LINE: At full strength, Indy, GB, Philly and Pittsburgh have the NFL’s top four offenses, with Denver, New Orleans and Dallas also in top four conversations. Pitt will not start ’15 at full strength, but Big Ben is special. In May I implored this team to finally and firmly address needs at CB and safety with early selections. Pitt has always been more comfortable drafting projects and coaching them up over several years. I’m heavily invested in UNDER 9 wins, mainly due to the double whammy of a minus turnover ratio, coupled with a considerably tougher schedule. My 1st game by game looks had them 8-8 or 9-7. If they reach 9-7 it will be due to overachieving and playing better than they usually due during the 1st part of the season. My early watch areas are the OL and the pass D%. KEY GAME: 10/1 hosting Baltimore. Win this and Pitt is 3-1 or 2-2. Lose this and that puts extra pressure on them to overcome their scheduling disadvantages to overtake the Ravens (and maybe the Bengals). Handicapping Tips: Pitt is 6-21 ATS in road openers. That stat comes in handy sometimes, especially when the early line was New England -3 (and in some places 2.5). Pitt is also 3-14 ATS when installed as a road favorite of over 3 points. On the positive side, a trio of plusses converge in their game 12/20 hosting Denver. Ike Taylor is retired, but for health reasons couldn’t play in Denver’s high altitude. Finally they play in Pittsburgh.
TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 27 (number is reduced, but still shaky with so many key players missing early in the season)