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1.1 Draft Slot Strategy (1 Viewer)

K

kyoun1e

Footballguy
Curious what most are finding themselves doing drafting out of the #1 slot in a 12 team PPR redraft.

Obviously going RB with the number 1 pick. 3-4 options there. Done. It's the turn I'm curious about.

Tempted to go RB, Kittles, Mahommes. With those three picks you have arguably the top RB, top QB, and a top 2 TE. That's a strong core.

There's also a "load up on KC" option where you grab Mahommes and D. Williams at the turn (and make sure you get D. Thompson later).

The common option seems to be RB, WR, RB where either Evans or K. Allen drop to you at the turn. Don't love those WRs, but I also don't like what I'm seeing at the 4/5 turn where the likes of T. Lockett is staring me in the face as my #1 WR (gulp).

What are people liking here?

Thanks

 
In a 12 team I'm probably going WR/WR at the 2/3 turn.  I don't like reaching for Kittle or Ertz there personally.  If Kelce somehow survives to there then he's a definite take.  And I feel confident enough that I can land Michel/Duke/White/Ekeler type RB2 later in the draft, so I'm loading up WRs there

 
wlwiles said:
In a 12 team I'm probably going WR/WR at the 2/3 turn.  I don't like reaching for Kittle or Ertz there personally.  If Kelce somehow survives to there then he's a definite take.  And I feel confident enough that I can land Michel/Duke/White/Ekeler type RB2 later in the draft, so I'm loading up WRs there
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I just hate the WRs I see at the 2/3 turn. 

Evans and K. Allen are usually gone leaving you with Cooper, A. Brown, Edelman, Theilan, Diggs. Feel like those guys are a reach and more appropriate in the mid 30s.

Really love the idea of going RB-RB-RB if K. Johnson and Chubb are still there.

 
kyoun1e said:
I just hate the WRs I see at the 2/3 turn. 

Evans and K. Allen are usually gone leaving you with Cooper, A. Brown, Edelman, Theilan, Diggs. Feel like those guys are a reach and more appropriate in the mid 30s.

Really love the idea of going RB-RB-RB if K. Johnson and Chubb are still there.
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No way Chubb is there

 
wlwiles said:
In a 12 team I'm probably going WR/WR at the 2/3 turn.  I don't like reaching for Kittle or Ertz there personally.  If Kelce somehow survives to there then he's a definite take.  And I feel confident enough that I can land Michel/Duke/White/Ekeler type RB2 later in the draft, so I'm loading up WRs there
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Where are you looking for your te? Hunter Henry at 4/5?  Committee ?

 
I just drafted from the 1.1. Almost zero chance Mahomes drops to you at 2/3. Same with Chubb. So you are left with the bottom of the second tier of RB's (like Kerryon Johnson, Gordon, Cook, etc). In PPR it can be tempting to go RB if KJ is there. But WR will likely be something along the lines of Evans/Hilton/Thielen/Diggs/K Allen and possibly Antonio Brown. If you don't go WR/WR, you will be looking at a severe drop off at both RB and WR by the time the 4/5 comes around. Depends on what your starter requirements are in your league, but I've mocked that slot dozens of times, and the only ones I've ever been happy with are going WR/WR at 2/3. Otherwise you're playing catch up for the rest of the draft.

 
Shrek said:
I just drafted from the 1.1. Almost zero chance Mahomes drops to you at 2/3. Same with Chubb. So you are left with the bottom of the second tier of RB's (like Kerryon Johnson, Gordon, Cook, etc). In PPR it can be tempting to go RB if KJ is there. But WR will likely be something along the lines of Evans/Hilton/Thielen/Diggs/K Allen and possibly Antonio Brown. If you don't go WR/WR, you will be looking at a severe drop off at both RB and WR by the time the 4/5 comes around. Depends on what your starter requirements are in your league, but I've mocked that slot dozens of times, and the only ones I've ever been happy with are going WR/WR at 2/3. Otherwise you're playing catch up for the rest of the draft.
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In this particular league I can start 3 RBs. Difficult to pass up an RB2 at the 2/3 turn and there seems to always be 2 or three here.

I have not seen Evans or K. Allen drop to the turn here in several mocks. Not once. Really don't want much part of the MN WRs here with all the talk of going run heavy and A. Brown seems like a wildcard. 

Almost always, A. Cooper is here. Would have to hold my nose with Cooper as my #1 WR, but I suppose that's better than Lockett or A. Robinson at the 4/5 turn.

 
This is the time of year folks need reminding that ADP reflects the opinions of the past several weeks/months.  Chubb has been soaring up boards, but ADP will lag behind.  Trends are as important as average in predicting likely draft outcomes by now,

 
I don't know if best ball counts in this strategy talk, but I just did a MFL10 from the 1 spot yesterday.  Took Kamara, Tyreek Hill, K. Johnson, Lockett, Kupp.

Chubb went 1.10 and Cook 2.06

Ertz, Kittle, and Mahomes were all available at the 2/3 turn.

 
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I've been mocking the number 1 pick for the last week pretty hard.

Round 1 - Kamara over Barkley for me

Round 2/3 picks 24/25 is where it gets a little dicey if my target guys go early

Guys I am targeting are DWill & Mahomes, then it's K Johnson, perhaps Gurley, K Allen or even a reach for Carson, and gulp, Montgomery. Fournette?

Round 3/4 picks 48/49 are Gordon, Ingram, Engram (prolly wait on TE's), Edelman, Golladay, Hilton types, maybe AJ Green reach or Duke here?

Then it's fill in the blanks

 
Is this non PPR QB's get 6 pts per TD pass ?  That be only way I could see Mahomes gone before 2/3 turn.  In normal leagues PPR 4 pts per TD pass he goes round 3 mostly.  I was getting Mahomes round 5 back in July in a few drafts those day are over but round 3 is where he goes nearly every PPR draft I been in that is 4 pts per TD pass.  The 6 pts per TD pass he goes round 2 / 3 about 50/50

 
wlwiles said:
In a 12 team I'm probably going WR/WR at the 2/3 turn.  I don't like reaching for Kittle or Ertz there personally.  If Kelce somehow survives to there then he's a definite take.  And I feel confident enough that I can land Michel/Duke/White/Ekeler type RB2 later in the draft, so I'm loading up WRs there
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Just drafted in a 10 man league from the 1.01 last night.  First receiver wasn't taken until the 1.10 (Adams), and Mahomes went at 2.05. I doubled up WR/WR with JuJu / Evans at the 2/3 turn (AB and Cooper were also available).   Best RBs available to me were Fournette, Henry, DWill, Kerryon. 

 
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At the turn 24/25 I gotta look kindly upon RB's: Gurley, DWill, or K Johnson, WR's Evans, Allen, Thielen, or AB, which I will prolly pass. Perhaps Kelce or Mahomes. I would say at least 21 of the first top 23 picks will be long gone, including JuJu. Evans sometimes makes it to 24. I've seen him go 28 before.

 
Team Smokin' said:
At the turn 24/25 I gotta look kindly upon RB's: Gurley, DWill, or K Johnson, WR's Evans, Allen, Thielen, or AB, which I will prolly pass. Perhaps Kelce or Mahomes. I would say at least 21 of the first top 23 picks will be long gone, including JuJu. Evans sometimes makes it to 24. I've seen him go 28 before.
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If you're the 1.01 and Kelce is there at the 2/3 turn in any size league, you thank your lucky stars and take him before the matrix glitches lol.  I've yet to see Kelce go later than 17 overall in any real or mock draft

 
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wlwiles said:
If you're the 1.01 and Kelce is there at the 2/3 turn in any size league, you thank your lucky stars and take him before the matrix glitches lol.  I've yet to see Kelce go later than 17 overall in any real or mock draft
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I'd go Kamara, Kelce or DWill, and Mahomes to open. I've seen Mahomes go earlier then 24th pick about half the time. Come to think of it, I've never seen Kelce go later then 23. Kittles??? annhhh pass on TE's until later.

 
Team Smokin' said:
At the turn 24/25 I gotta look kindly upon RB's: Gurley, DWill, or K Johnson, WR's Evans, Allen, Thielen, or AB, which I will prolly pass. Perhaps Kelce or Mahomes. I would say at least 21 of the first top 23 picks will be long gone, including JuJu. Evans sometimes makes it to 24. I've seen him go 28 before.
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I've mocked several times and I'd say 9 out of 10 times it's been 1. Barkley then 24. K. Johnson.

Evans and K. Allen always gone. To me, there is a drop off at WR after these two that almost has me just punt WR at the turn to go RB-RB-RB or RB-RB-TE (Kittle).

That leaves me with the decision to bite the bullet on a third RB (A. Jones or D. Williams), Kittle, or A. Theilen. Starting to warm up to the idea of Theilen's consistency here (and I think all this MN run, run, run and Cousins stinks, stinks, stinks is a little overblown). Narrow target tree.

Mahommes always available in mocks but there is no way in hell he lasts in my league. A Barkley, D. Williams, Mahommes start sure would be tasty (while making sure to get D. Thompson in round 8 or 9).

 
wlwiles said:
If you're the 1.01 and Kelce is there at the 2/3 turn in any size league, you thank your lucky stars and take him before the matrix glitches lol.  I've yet to see Kelce go later than 17 overall in any real or mock draft
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what about in non TE mandatory leagues? What WR tier do you put him??

 
wlwiles said:
If you're the 1.01 and Kelce is there at the 2/3 turn in any size league, you thank your lucky stars and take him before the matrix glitches lol.  I've yet to see Kelce go later than 17 overall in any real or mock draft
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Got him at 20 before and didn't like it also just passed him at 18 in the current draft I am in and he went 19.

 
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I drafted from the 1 spot.  3RR, 0.5 PPR

1.01 - Barkley, 2.12 - Mixon, 3.12 - Gordon, 4.12 - Woods, 5.01 - Godwin, 6.12 - Murray, 7.01 - AJ Green, 8.12 - Winston, 9.01 - Kyler Murray, 10.12 - Darwin Thompson, 11.01 - G.Allison, 12.12 - Jordan Reed, 13.01 - Browns, 14.12 - Crosby

 
After seeing others posts, I walk back my thought on picking wr/wr at the 2/3 turn.  Not that I would not take them, but odds are the rbs will provide better results.

Whiplash click: Evans, Keenan, Mixon, Cook, Kelce.  I've seen some folks mention these.  Every league is different, but I've not see any of these last to the 2/3 turn.

Question mark clicks: Assuming those are not available and without spending any more time digging, I'd probably draft from this list at the 2/3 turn, rough effort at ranking them. None without their question marks:

  • Kerryon Johnson - he could finish top 10 this year, if he stays healthy (just have a bad feeling here, although I own a lot of shares)
  • Fournette - I have a feeling (I know, that and $.50 might buy you a cup of coffer) that he is going to finish top 10 this year
  • Aaron Jones - worry that he will show to be injury prone, but if not he should be at least an upper end rb2
  • Damien Williams - worried that he is JAG, that he could lose GL touches, that Darwin cuts in, that he is unstartable by the end of the season
  • Thielen - consistent ppr production.  Don't know enough to know how changes in the offense will affect him
  • Sony Michel - worry about the knee. Boom/bust pick here - he might have among the highest ceiling as well as the lowest floor of this group
  • Todd Gurley - we all know the scoop here.
  • Montgomery - unproven. But I like the situation and there is enough talent. Probably a solid rb2
  • AB - hadn't realized he was such a head case/drama queen.  I drop such players, a lot.
  • Amari - he might really come thru this year as a wr1.  I wouldn''t draft assuming so.
  • Carson - doesn't get enough love. Should be a solid rb2

 
Well, here's how this turned out. Ended up grabbing K. Johnson and K. Allen at the turn. Didn't expect K. Allen to be there after doing tons of mocks. 

Missed out on D. Montgomery and S. Michel at the 4/5 turn. Left me a little light at my #3 RB.

* QB: J. Goff, L. Jackson

* RB: S. Barkley, K. Johnson, M. Sanders, A. Ekeler, T. Pollard, J. Jackson, J. Hill

* WR: K. Allen, T. Lockett, C. Davis, M. Boykin

* TE: OJ Howard

* Defense: NE, PHI

* K: J. Meyers

 
Phantom Knight said:
After seeing others posts, I walk back my thought on picking wr/wr at the 2/3 turn.  Not that I would not take them, but odds are the rbs will provide better results.

Whiplash click: Evans, Keenan, Mixon, Cook, Kelce.  I've seen some folks mention these.  Every league is different, but I've not see any of these last to the 2/3 turn.

Question mark clicks: Assuming those are not available and without spending any more time digging, I'd probably draft from this list at the 2/3 turn, rough effort at ranking them. None without their question marks:

  • Kerryon Johnson - he could finish top 10 this year, if he stays healthy (just have a bad feeling here, although I own a lot of shares)
  • Fournette - I have a feeling (I know, that and $.50 might buy you a cup of coffer) that he is going to finish top 10 this year
  • Aaron Jones - worry that he will show to be injury prone, but if not he should be at least an upper end rb2
  • Damien Williams - worried that he is JAG, that he could lose GL touches, that Darwin cuts in, that he is unstartable by the end of the season
  • Thielen - consistent ppr production.  Don't know enough to know how changes in the offense will affect him
  • Sony Michel - worry about the knee. Boom/bust pick here - he might have among the highest ceiling as well as the lowest floor of this group
  • Todd Gurley - we all know the scoop here.
  • Montgomery - unproven. But I like the situation and there is enough talent. Probably a solid rb2
  • AB - hadn't realized he was such a head case/drama queen.  I drop such players, a lot.
  • Amari - he might really come thru this year as a wr1.  I wouldn''t draft assuming so.
  • Carson - doesn't get enough love. Should be a solid rb2
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Kerryon Johnson is one who stares right at you here at 24th overall pick. Aaron Jones may be there as well. Chris Carson seems too much of a reach at 24, maybe 25 lol. You also don't mention Patrick Mahomes at the turn? At 25 he won't last long into the third round and some folks are taking him way early. What's not to like in Mahomes except foregoing a second tier WR / RB. We went Kamara, K Johnson, Mahomes, Edelman, Lockett to open first 5 picks.

.5 PPR with only 4  bench players

QB: Mahomes, Big Ben

RB: Kamara, K Johnson, R Freeman

WR: Edelman, Lockett, DJ Moore, M Valdes-Scantling

TE: Njoku, Ebron

K: Fairbairn

D/ST: Chicago - reached a lil as players I wanted at WR were flying off the board and after taking DJ Moore, that certainly wasn't on my radar, grabbed CHI

In Essence, no true WR #1 by taking Mahomes at 25 overall. It's worth it to watch him

 
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