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1 Hot Take Per Team(pre-FA) (1 Viewer)

travdogg

Footballguy
So, I've been pretty active in a few threads this week, and have felt as though I've been in the minority of a few opinions, so why not just throw some out all in 1 thread. These will be limited to the fantasy relevant positions.

Arizona=Re-signing Zach Ertz for big money instead of Maxx Williams for small money is a mistake. Williams is the better all-around player. 

Atlanta=Calvin Ridley was never an elite WR, he had a great fantasy season in the most pass heavy offense in the NFL. His loss still hurts, but I think he was going to be playing second fiddle to Pitts soon enough anyway. I also think his suspension is either fair, or not enough. 

Baltimore=Gus Edwards is a better runner than JK Dobbins, I didn't say RB, I said runner. That's gonna make it hard for either to have consistent value as neither is going away. Especially as their best runner plays QB.

Buffalo=Dawson Knox was this year's Robert Tonyan. He's nothing special and honestly was probably the 6th best pass catcher on the Bills offense, he just some more consistent snaps than anyone but Diggs. But all off Diggs, Davis, Beasley, Sanders, and McKenzie are bigger difference makers. 

Carolina=I think this is maybe the worst front office in the NFL. Trading for Darnold, signing and extending Anderson, re-signing Thomas. I don't understand any of those moves. Its rough when extending CMC for big money is probably the most sensible thing they've done. 

Chicago=I think Allen Robinson was injured and likely half-assed 2021. I think he's still one of the 10 best WR's in the NFL, and is a guy I'd be trying to buy low on right now. 

Cincinnati=I think Joe Mixon is a little overrated. He's a fine player, but he almost certainly just had his career season, and they look for reasons to take him off the field. He's a really good sell high I think. 

Cleveland=Perhaps I'm overreacting to a couple of starts, but I think D'Ernest Johnson>Kareem Hunt at least as a runner. 

Dallas=Cooper+cheap TE>Gallup/Schultz. Teams still treated Cooper as the #1, and I think the entirety of the passing game will miss him.

Denver=Russell Wilson hasn't lost a thing, and will be rejuvenated in Denver. Fully expecting an MVP caliber season. 

Detroit=2 years in and I'm not impressed at all by D'Andre Swift. I say this as someone who thought he was the best RB in the 2020 class. I thought Jamaal Williams and even Craig Reynolds were interchangeable with him this season.

Green Bay=Whoever signs MVS is stupid, unless he's getting close to the league minimum. He's not a good WR at all, and he's had Aaron Rodgers at QB, with Adams on the other side, his situation can only get worse. 

Houston=People may have forgotten between the year off, but DeShaun Watson was arguably the best QB south of GB last time he played. He was basically Burrow with much better mobility in 2020. He's going to make a huge difference wherever he ends up. Taking morality out of it, and strictly looking at on field play, he might be the best player being traded in NFL history. 

Indianapolis=Mo Alie-Cox is a secret superstar and a top-10 NFL TE in my opinion, who was held back by the Colts weird obsession with Jack Doyle, who himself was a decent TE, but on team desperate for playmakers in the passing game, I have no idea why MAC was playing 80% of snaps. I think he's secretly the best TE in FA and I'm counting the guys who got tagged.

Jacksonville=Laviska Shenault should be used as a Deebo/Patterson type player, and is the best player on the Jags with the ball in his hands, not just at WR, better than Robinson/Etienne too. Maybe Pederson figures that out?

Kansas City=Its high past time to be worried about CEH. The offense didn't miss him at all when he was gone, and he was outplayed by Jerick McKinnon down the stretch. I think he's going to be a career RBBC guy, and its probably 50-50 he'll be the better half of it.

Las Vegas=Josh Jacobs is the most underrated RB in the NFL. I think he's a top-5 NFL RB, who for whatever reason was horribly used by Gruden. His pass catching is among his greatest skills, yet he was always pulled on 3rd downs. Also, there isn't a RB who is better than his raw stats indicate. I can't count how many times I've seen Jacobs make a man miss, break a tackle, then fall forward, to gain 2 yards, instead of losing 3. Its 5-6 times every game.  He's a guy who puts up 17-70, but if you watch the game, you'd see that an average RB in the same situation would put up 17-20.

LA Chargers=I'm a little nervous that Mike Williams had a classic contract year push. Maybe I'm being pessimistic, but I'd have rather let Williams walk, get an eventual high comp pick, and do a trade similar to the Browns for Amari Cooper, ending up with a better pick, and in my opinion, a better WR. 

LA Rams=Darrell Henderson>Cam Akers. Henderson has proven he can't stay healthy, but everything I have seen from both suggests to me Henderson is the better RB, and I say that as somebody who didn't like either of them when they were drafted. 

Miami=The steal of the offseason this year might be whoever ends up with Will Fuller. I'm fully expecting a cheap 1 year deal, but the last time he was healthy, he looked the part of a #1 WR, and yet he's going to be far cheaper than far less talented guys like Christian Kirk or MVS. He's a no-risk signing(if he gets hurt again, you are likely only out a 2-3 mill) and the reward is a top-20 NFL WR. 

Minnesota=Alexander Mattison is probably better than the starters on 1/3rd of the league, he's just stuck behind Dalvin Cook. I could see him getting a starting job in 2023. 

New England=Whoever their RB scout is, they are outstanding. Damian Harris is one of the best runners in the NFL in my opinion, and Rhamondre Stevenson looked like the best RB in the 2021 rookie class whenever he got on the field. This is the 2nd best backfield in the NFL after the Browns in my opinion, and its way cheaper.

New Orleans=I'm still on the Michael Thomas bandwagon, and I think he's going to have a bounce back season. I think he had some contract issues, and obviously some ankle issues, but ultimately I think there is still a top-10 WR in there. 

NY Giants=I don't think rookie year Saquon Barkley is ever coming back. I think he's lost a lot of explosiveness, and doesn't seem to want to use the fact that he's 230 pounds to his advantage. I think he's likely a RBBC guy going forward, and the Giants should absolutely be shopping him. 

NY Jets=I think Zach Wilson is going to take a step forward next year. Were Corey Davis and Elijah Moore ever healthy together last year? The OL is likely to be improved, and he had a sizeable jump from BYU. 

Philadelphia=Dallas Goedert is a top-5 TE, and should be the centerpiece of the offense. He should have been ahead of Ertz years ago.

Pittsburgh=Ben Roethlisberger was the worst starting QB in the NFL last year that was starting on purpose, that wasn't a rookie. I think it'll be very easy to replace him, and I'd be surprised if they weren't able to upgrade. They won in spite of him in 2021. 

San Francisco=This offense feels like its about to explode. Trey Lance is likely going to be an upgrade from Jimmy G, who wasn't asked to do much, and benefitted greatly(more than any QB in the NFL) from RAC. Lance's mobility adds another dimension as does his arm strength, and that'll make the offense even harder to defend, even if there are some growing pains along the way.

Seattle=Noah Fant is a very overrated TE, he's another Evan Engram in my opinion, where he never should have been a 1st rounder, and teams are waiting forever for him to put the few flashes of quality play together. Denver won't miss him at all. 

Tampa Bay=Great to see Tom Brady is coming back. You hate to see a guy leave on an MVP caliber season. I wonder if his return will lead to TB getting some cheap vets. Even if Brady hadn't come back, I think Tampa was still the NFC South favorites with even average QB play.

Tennessee=Maybe I'm being stubborn or optimistic, but I still want to see this offense when Henry, Brown, and Julio are all healthy. We got that for 2 games last season. I still Julio can be a difference maker. 

Washington=I understand they didn't want to have awful QB play again this season, but man, I don't get trading for Wentz. You lose multiple day 2 picks, and Wentz costs a ton, and isn't really any better than what was available in FA. I'd have rather kept the picks and saved some money and brought in Teddy or Jameis. Or just drafted a rookie.

 
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Birdie048

Footballguy
Carolina=I think this is maybe the worst front office in the NFL. Trading for Darnold, signing and extending Anderson, re-signing Thomas. I don't understand any of those moves. Its rough when extending CMC for big money is probably the most sensible thing they've done. 
Even the CMC $$ was questionable.  They have no clue how to manage the NFL Operation! 

 

travdogg

Footballguy
Even the CMC $$ was questionable.  They have no clue how to manage the NFL Operation! 
Oh, I was counting as bad, just the least bad, since at least he's a great player. 

I'd rather spend money on a great player at a non-valuable position who has health issues, than a player at a more valuable position that I know isn't good.

 

travdogg

Footballguy
What about Zach Wilson leads you to have faith in him?
He played better down the stretch(Buffalo game notwithstanding) when they started taking advantage of his mobility, and he was doing that without Davis or Moore, with Berrios as his #1. 

I also always felt he wasn't gonna be a guy who hit the ground running coming from BYU. 

 

habsfan

Footballguy
From a fantasy standpoint, I get the Allen Robinson take but NFL wise, there's no way I would rely on him as a key acquisition.

Somewhat agreeing on Ridley as well. I am generally cautious about assuming #2s are going to become #1s when the #1 leaves because it's a whole different deal. To me a true #1 can tell you it's going to be a fastball and still beat you with it (so to speak). I don't think he's close to that.

 

SwampDawg

Footballguy
Miami=The steal of the offseason this year might be whoever ends up with Will Fuller. I'm fully expecting a cheap 1 year deal, but the last time he was healthy, he looked the part of a #1 WR, and yet he's going to be far cheaper than far less talented guys like Christian Kirk or MVS. He's a no-risk signing(if he gets hurt again, you are likely only out a 2-3 mill) and the reward is a top-20 NFL WR. 
This depends on if you are signing him expecting him to be that #1 or #2 WR or if he is just a luxury item because the guy cannot stay healthy. If a team like KC or Dallas signs him for that low number then he might be a total steal for the 8 to 10 games he'll play. If someone signs him needing him for 17 games, good luck with that. 

 

travdogg

Footballguy
This depends on if you are signing him expecting him to be that #1 or #2 WR or if he is just a luxury item because the guy cannot stay healthy. If a team like KC or Dallas signs him for that low number then he might be a total steal for the 8 to 10 games he'll play. If someone signs him needing him for 17 games, good luck with that. 
I can't imagine anyone signing him to be a #1. I think he's a guy with high-end #2 ability, who requires a#3 contract. 

My gut says he signs with a contender, or wherever Watson goes.

 

habsfan

Footballguy
This depends on if you are signing him expecting him to be that #1 or #2 WR or if he is just a luxury item because the guy cannot stay healthy. If a team like KC or Dallas signs him for that low number then he might be a total steal for the 8 to 10 games he'll play. If someone signs him needing him for 17 games, good luck with that. 
The problem for that contender is magnified when those 8 to 10 games stop right around play-off time.

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
SwampDawg said:
This depends on if you are signing him expecting him to be that #1 or #2 WR or if he is just a luxury item because the guy cannot stay healthy. If a team like KC or Dallas signs him for that low number then he might be a total steal for the 8 to 10 games he'll play. If someone signs him needing him for 17 games, good luck with that. 
Fuller has played in 55 games and missed 42 games over his career. Even projected at a full 17-game season, based on his average per game performance he would only clock in at an average of 66-969-7. That's not bad, but it isn't earth shattering either (considering he struggles to stay on the field). He had the 25th most expensive contract for a WR last season . . . which clearly was not a good investment by the Dolphins. I wonder what he will sign for (and for how long) given all of that.

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Here is a list of unsigned, untagged free agents that ranked in the Top 20 at their position last season as graded by PFF. There aren't a ton of them, and there certainly are lesser-known names that won't end up getting big contracts.

Edge
Von Miller - 3
Melvin Ingram - 13
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo - 17
Justin Houston - 19
Emmanual Ogbah - 20

Interior Defender
Calais Campbell - 8
Harrison Phillips - 15
D.J. Jones - 18

Linebacker
De'Vondre Campbell - 2
Alexander Johnson - 3
Josh Bynes - 11
Bobby Wagner - 15
Anthony Walker - 17
Kyzir White - 20

Cornerback
J.C. Jackson - 7
D.J. Reed - 8
Casey Hayward - 12
Ahkello Witherspoon - 13
Rasul Douglas - 16
Matt Hughes - 18

Safety
Marcus Williams - 7
DeAndre Houston-Carson - 10
Jayron Kearse - 13

Quarterback
Jacoby Brissett - 15
Jameis Winston - 18
Teddy Bridgewater - 20

Halfback
Cordarrelle Patterson - 5
James Conner - 7
Rashaad Penny - 12
Melvin Gordon - 16

Tight End
Rob Gronkowski - 7
David Njoku - 14

Wide Receiver
None

Center 
Ben Jones - 8
Brian Allen - 10
Bradley Bozeman - 11
Mason Cole - 13
Ethan Pocic - 15
Matt Paradis - 16

Guard
Connor Williams - 11
Brandon Scherff - 13
Laken Tomlinson - 13
Ted Karras - 15
Alex Kappa - 18
James Daniels - 19

Tackle
Tom Compton - 16
David Quessenberry - 18

 

Mister CIA

Footballguy
Detroit=2 years in and I'm not impressed at all by D'Andre Swift. I say this as someone who thought he was the best RB in the 2020 class. I thought Jamaal Williams and even Craig Reynolds were interchangeable with him this season.
As a Swift owner I think he is doing fine, and my expectations are that he will continue to improve as a FF player. He's a borderline top-10 RB with 250 touches; top-5 if he hits 275 touches.  Health/Availability is the only concern, which applies to most good RBs.

 

Leroy Hoard

Footballguy
As much as I like Swift, part of his value is the offense he is on. Combine that with his injury history, I'd make sure to handcuff him with whoever ends up as his primary #2.

 

wlwiles

Footballguy
Buffalo=Dawson Knox was this year's Robert Tonyan. He's nothing special and honestly was probably the 6th best pass catcher on the Bills offense, he just some more consistent snaps than anyone but Diggs. But all off Diggs, Davis, Beasley, Sanders, and McKenzie are bigger difference makers. 
I think this one is my favorite, and you have a good chance of looking like a genius by Thanksgiving.  I could see Davis taking a step this year, and Buffalo drafting one of the top RBs...Knox could end up with a 40/350/5 type season and it wouldn't surprise me in the least

 
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Gally

Footballguy
I think this one is my favorite, and you have a good chance of looking like a genius by Thanksgiving.  I could see Davis taking a step this year, and Buffalo drafting one of the top RBs...Knox could end up with a 40/350/5 type season and it wouldn't surprise me in the least
Well they just signed McKissic so that will be another mouth to feed.

 

Obie Wan

Footballguy
Well they just signed McKissic so that will be another mouth to feed.
Bills have decided to not bother wasting plays on running the ball.

if Beasley does not return, expect Knox to become used more over the middle and the seams - he will be more impactful

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
UPDATED with recent signings. Huge run on guards.

Here is a list of unsigned, untagged free agents that ranked in the Top 20 at their position last season as graded by PFF. There aren't a ton of them, and there certainly are lesser-known names that won't end up getting big contracts.

Edge
Von Miller - 3
Melvin Ingram - 13
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo - 17
Justin Houston - 19
Emmanual Ogbah - 20

Interior Defender
Calais Campbell - 8
Harrison Phillips - 15
D.J. Jones - 18

Linebacker
De'Vondre Campbell - 2
Alexander Johnson - 3
Josh Bynes - 11
Bobby Wagner - 15
Anthony Walker - 17
Kyzir White - 20

Cornerback
J.C. Jackson - 7 (LAC - 5/$82.5M/$40M)
D.J. Reed - 8 (NYJ - 3/$33M/?)
Casey Hayward - 12
Ahkello Witherspoon - 13
Rasul Douglas - 16
Matt Hughes - 18

Safety
Marcus Williams - 7 (BAL - 5/$70M/$37M)
DeAndre Houston-Carson - 10
Jayron Kearse - 13

Quarterback
Jacoby Brissett - 15
Jameis Winston - 18
Teddy Bridgewater - 20 (MIA - 1/$6.5M/$6.5)

Halfback
Cordarrelle Patterson - 5
James Conner - 7
Rashaad Penny - 12
Melvin Gordon - 16

Tight End
Rob Gronkowski - 7
David Njoku - 14 (Franchised by CLE for $10.8)

Wide Receiver
None

Center 
Ben Jones - 8
Brian Allen - 10
Bradley Bozeman - 11
Mason Cole - 13 (PIT - 3/$15.75M/?)
Ethan Pocic - 15
Matt Paradis - 16

Guard
Connor Williams - 11 (MIA - 2/$14M/$7.5M)
Brandon Scherff - 13 (JAC - 3/$49.5M/$30M)
Laken Tomlinson - 13 (NYJ - 3/$40M/$27M)
Ted Karras - 15 (CIN - 3/$18M/$5M)
Alex Kappa - 18 (CIN - 4/$35M/$11M)
James Daniels - 19

Tackle
Tom Compton - 16
David Quessenberry - 18

 

daveR

Footballguy
Cleveland=Perhaps I'm overreacting to a couple of starts, but I think D'Ernest Johnson>Kareem Hunt at least as a runner.
Nope.  DJ did well when the holes were there.  Hunt is a violent runner who makes the yardage that's there and more.

 

travdogg

Footballguy
Nope.  DJ did well when the holes were there.  Hunt is a violent runner who makes the yardage that's there and more.
I felt Johnson showed much better vision and creativity than Hunt, and that created more big plays. I'd fully agree Hunt is more powerful, and a better receiver. 

 

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