10 Guys to stay away from in fantasy baseball (1 Viewer)

[Kraft...]

This thread has sufficiently scared me into ordering the Baseball Prospectus Guide. I can't put this #### off any longer.

Those predictions were made prior to last season

 

[bialczabub]

Stay away from:6) Alfonso Soriano- Numbers should dip with him being unhappy and playing in that stadium.

Wrigley as opposed to RFK?

Ready for a rebound:6) Zack Grienke- had a horrible season but has top notch stuff. I expect him to make a 180 this year.

HEADCASE ALERT!

check the date

 

[bialczabub]

This thread has sufficiently scared me into ordering the Baseball Prospectus Guide. I can't put this #### off any longer.

Those predictions were made prior to last season

Even moreso then.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

horrible.

Stick to threads where you ask questions, shady.

 

[Idiot Boxer]

First name I thought of when I saw this thread was posty.

 

[RnR]

Actually Id add Beckett, Burnett, Washburn, Francouer, Schilling, Halladay, Haren, & Gonzalez to the hits. Not as bad as I thought.

Sorry, that's not a hit..260, 29 HR, 83 R, 103 RBI from a guy in his 2nd season is hardly a bust in 5x5.

 

[shadyridr]

2007 predicitions

10 players to stay away from:

1) JD Drew- probably on everyone’s stay away from list. But he always gets hurt, he signed a huge contract, and he’s playing in one of the most intense media markets in baseball. All signs point to bust.

2) F Thomas- I know he had a huge bounceback year last year but Im thinking he declines this year. Just signed a big deal and even though I know he’s a DH, playing on turf could really hinder at-bats.

3) J Peralta- Reminds me of Carlos Baerga, ie had a few good seasons (in his case 1) got too lazy, fat, and declined.

4) A Eaton- Signed a big contract but has never shown much to me and moves to another hitters haven.

5) C Wang- I hope Im wrong here, I really do but his outs per balls put in play last year were far higher than normal. He may have been lucky (although guys with a 94mph heavy sinker are hard to come by) . Plus you wont get any strikeouts from him.

6) B McCarthy- I know hes been a highly touted young arm but Im thinking he falters somewhat in the heat of Texas.

7) J Damon- Call this one a small hunch. Showed up to camp heavy (as in pudgy not muscular). I just have a feeling Cabrera steals more and more atbats from him as the year goes on.

8) O Dotel- Yeah hes probably not being drafted high but I still don’t think hell be fully recovered from his surgery. Last year he threw 91 mph and had zero movement on the ball. I wouldn’t even waste a late pick on him especially since KC sucks.

9) T Lilly- Another guy who got a huge who didn’t deserve one. A 6 inning fly ball pitcher pitching in the Windy City. Yikes

10) A Gordon- OK maybe this is a weird one. All Im saying is not to reach for perhaps the top hitting prospect in baseball. KC has M Teahan and R Shealy at the corners blocking his progression and its not like their offense is any good anyway. Id pass.

15 sleepers:

1) P Hughes- Maybe it’s the NY media but this guy has been getting rave reviews in camp already. Throws a sneaky 94mph fastball and a devastating curve. I have a feeling either Igawa or Pavano falters within a month and Hughes is called up to be the 5th starter the rest of the way. Could be this years Verlander.

2) H Kendrick- Call me crazy but I think this kid is the next Tony Gwynn. He can hit. Great player to have as a 2B (Im not sure what he is eligible for).

3) M Beuhrle- It seems control pitchers always seem to have off years but they also always bounce back. Glavine and Saberhagen are 2 guys who would follow the good year, bad year pattern. Im thinking the same thing happens to Beuhrle and he has a great year.

4) J Bonderman- Not much of a stretch but I think he becomes Detroits ace this year. The ace on a WS contending team is pretty valuable IMO.

5) S Drew- Little brother had a good start to his career last year. On a young exciting team can put up some solid numbers this year.

6) R Weeks- Don’t forget about him cuz of his injury or his absolutely horrible defense. Is still eligible at 2B and will put up a ton of SBs

7) Bedard- Another stud IMO. Tends to get hurt a bit but I think he approaches 16 wins this year with a lot of Ks and a healthy ERA.

8) J Valverde- Young, up and coming team, bad division, good depth in rotation, throws gas. Call me crazy but IMO he will be a stud closer.

9) N Markakis- Has all the tools and patience to be a perennial AS OFer. Last year came on towards the end. No fluke.

10) F Cordero- He was always a stud closer for Tex and he struggled a bit causing Showalter to inexplicably pull him out of the closer role hurting his confidence. Became dominant again after going to MIL. Mil is a solid team with deep pitching in a bad division. I think he will be a top closer this year.

11) G Laird- He can hit and can even steal bases. In that ballpark could be a top catcher. Finally getting his chance now that Buck is gone and he is no longer blocked by Buck’s man love for Barajas.

12) J Maine- I don’t know how the Mets do it but they always seem to have solid pitching without top notch names. Maine looked really good in stretches last year. Pitching in a weak NL for a WS contender he could be a steal.

13) S Victorino- Gets the full time role. Should be a good player to fill up all the categories for you. Will put up solid numbers in SBs, BA, HRs

14) R Shealy- Somebody’s gotta put up power #s in KC. Why not him?

15) J Davis- OK for ####s and giggles I put him back on again. I just think he has closer stuff and Cleveland’s closer right now is Joe Borowski. I still think he’ll eventually become closer. Maybe Ill be right this year.

 

[Statorama]

Solid list. I think they're wrong about Buehrle, who looks completely done to me. I also think listing Lilly while not listing Marquis is a big oversight. Both pitchers in the same position, one is clearly inferior.

Good calls on Thomas, Peralta and Damon.

 

[Eagles09]

13) S Victorino- Gets the full time role. Should be a good player to fill up all the categories for you. Will put up solid numbers in SBs, BA, HRs

I am a phillies fan....and i can say for sure if your counting for "solid" numbers for HR's from Victorino, your in trouble.... other than that, he is a solid player who will have a solid year i think, just not many HR's

Eagles09

 

[shadyridr]

13) S Victorino- Gets the full time role. Should be a good player to fill up all the categories for you. Will put up solid numbers in SBs, BA, HRs

I am a phillies fan....and i can say for sure if your counting for "solid" numbers for HR's from Victorino, your in trouble.... other than that, he is a solid player who will have a solid year i think, just not many HR's

Eagles09

In that park I can see him hitting 15 HRs, along with the steals and BA I think he would be a solid end of the roster guy to have to contribute to all categories.

 

[onionsack]

 

[shadyridr]

Solid list. I think they're wrong about Buehrle, who looks completely done to me. I also think listing Lilly while not listing Marquis is a big oversight. Both pitchers in the same position, one is clearly inferior.

Good calls on Thomas, Peralta and Damon.

Why? He has too much of a great track record to be done IMO. Unless you think hes injured or something.

 

[Statorama]

13) S Victorino- Gets the full time role. Should be a good player to fill up all the categories for you. Will put up solid numbers in SBs, BA, HRs

I am a phillies fan....and i can say for sure if your counting for "solid" numbers for HR's from Victorino, your in trouble.... other than that, he is a solid player who will have a solid year i think, just not many HR's

They can't kill Lew Ford. He just keeps coming back on different teams under different names.

 

[LHUCKS]

I think Wang could be very solid for the Yankees, that's my only major disagreement on the bust list.

 

[Statorama]

Solid list. I think they're wrong about Buehrle, who looks completely done to me. I also think listing Lilly while not listing Marquis is a big oversight. Both pitchers in the same position, one is clearly inferior.

Good calls on Thomas, Peralta and Damon.

Why? He has too much of a great track record to be done IMO. Unless you think hes injured or something.

Allowed hitters to bat over .300 against him last year. Velocity and strikeout rate were way down and his arm has a lot of miles on it. Those 5 straight years of 200 innings finally caught up with him in 2006. Before the wiseacres chime in that he pitched 200 innings in 2006, he was clearly not the same pitcher, going from an extreme groundball pitcher to an extreme flyball pitcher. He might be able to hide that flaw in the NL, or even in a different park, so his eventual signing with the Cardinals in 2008 might lead to a resurgence.He's just been abused.

 

[shadyridr]

I think Wang could be very solid for the Yankees, that's my only major disagreement on the bust list.

I really hope you are right and I am wrong

 

[GStrot]

I think Wang could be very solid

tee hee.

 

[greedygoat]

Solid list, I love the Bedard, Kendrick and Shealy picks. I think another year with Leo Mazonne will help both Bedard and Daniel Cabrera improve on their numbers from last year.

 

[Kellie Pickler]

I think Wang could be very solid

tee hee.

I don't get it.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I think Wang could be very solid

tee hee.

I don't get it.

That's not what I hear.

 

[higgins]

 

[GStrot]

I think Wang could be very solid

tee hee.

I don't get it.

I will give it to you.edit: you are a chick, right?

 

[shadyridr]

2007 predicitions

10 players to stay away from:

1) JD Drew- probably on everyone’s stay away from list. But he always gets hurt, he signed a huge contract, and he’s playing in one of the most intense media markets in baseball. All signs point to bust.

2) F Thomas- I know he had a huge bounceback year last year but Im thinking he declines this year. Just signed a big deal and even though I know he’s a DH, playing on turf could really hinder at-bats.

3) J Peralta- Reminds me of Carlos Baerga, ie had a few good seasons (in his case 1) got too lazy, fat, and declined.

4) A Eaton- Signed a big contract but has never shown much to me and moves to another hitters haven.

5) C Wang- I hope Im wrong here, I really do but his outs per balls put in play last year were far higher than normal. He may have been lucky (although guys with a 94mph heavy sinker are hard to come by) . Plus you wont get any strikeouts from him.

6) B McCarthy- I know hes been a highly touted young arm but Im thinking he falters somewhat in the heat of Texas.

7) J Damon- Call this one a small hunch. Showed up to camp heavy (as in pudgy not muscular). I just have a feeling Cabrera steals more and more atbats from him as the year goes on.

8) O Dotel- Yeah hes probably not being drafted high but I still don’t think hell be fully recovered from his surgery. Last year he threw 91 mph and had zero movement on the ball. I wouldn’t even waste a late pick on him especially since KC sucks.

9) T Lilly- Another guy who got a huge who didn’t deserve one. A 6 inning fly ball pitcher pitching in the Windy City. Yikes

10) A Gordon- OK maybe this is a weird one. All Im saying is not to reach for perhaps the top hitting prospect in baseball. KC has M Teahan and R Shealy at the corners blocking his progression and its not like their offense is any good anyway. Id pass.

15 sleepers:

1) P Hughes- Maybe it’s the NY media but this guy has been getting rave reviews in camp already. Throws a sneaky 94mph fastball and a devastating curve. I have a feeling either Igawa or Pavano falters within a month and Hughes is called up to be the 5th starter the rest of the way. Could be this years Verlander.

2) H Kendrick- Call me crazy but I think this kid is the next Tony Gwynn. He can hit. Great player to have as a 2B (Im not sure what he is eligible for).

3) M Beuhrle- It seems control pitchers always seem to have off years but they also always bounce back. Glavine and Saberhagen are 2 guys who would follow the good year, bad year pattern. Im thinking the same thing happens to Beuhrle and he has a great year.

4) J Bonderman- Not much of a stretch but I think he becomes Detroits ace this year. The ace on a WS contending team is pretty valuable IMO.

5) S Drew- Little brother had a good start to his career last year. On a young exciting team can put up some solid numbers this year.

6) R Weeks- Don’t forget about him cuz of his injury or his absolutely horrible defense. Is still eligible at 2B and will put up a ton of SBs

7) Bedard- Another stud IMO. Tends to get hurt a bit but I think he approaches 16 wins this year with a lot of Ks and a healthy ERA.

8) J Valverde- Young, up and coming team, bad division, good depth in rotation, throws gas. Call me crazy but IMO he will be a stud closer.

9) N Markakis- Has all the tools and patience to be a perennial AS OFer. Last year came on towards the end. No fluke.

10) F Cordero- He was always a stud closer for Tex and he struggled a bit causing Showalter to inexplicably pull him out of the closer role hurting his confidence. Became dominant again after going to MIL. Mil is a solid team with deep pitching in a bad division. I think he will be a top closer this year.

11) G Laird- He can hit and can even steal bases. In that ballpark could be a top catcher. Finally getting his chance now that Buck is gone and he is no longer blocked by Buck’s man love for Barajas.

12) J Maine- I don’t know how the Mets do it but they always seem to have solid pitching without top notch names. Maine looked really good in stretches last year. Pitching in a weak NL for a WS contender he could be a steal.

13) S Victorino- Gets the full time role. Should be a good player to fill up all the categories for you. Will put up solid numbers in SBs, BA, HRs

14) R Shealy- Somebody’s gotta put up power #s in KC. Why not him?

15) J Davis- OK for ####s and giggles I put him back on again. I just think he has closer stuff and Cleveland’s closer right now is Joe Borowski. I still think he’ll eventually become closer. Maybe Ill be right this year.

Its scary how right Ive been thru April on some of these picks. Especially John Maine. Hopefully my prognostication lasts a full season. Please move to the baseball forum.

 

[TinHat]

I don't know why Markakkis is bolded, he's looked like garbage

 

[shadyridr]

I don't know why Markakkis is bolded, he's looked like garbage

Just a mistake in my editing although his numbers have taken a hit due to a recent slump.

 

[shadyridr]

2007 predicitions

10 players to stay away from:



1) JD Drew- probably on everyone’s stay away from list. But he always gets hurt, he signed a huge contract, and he’s playing in one of the most intense media markets in baseball. All signs point to bust.

4) A Eaton- Signed a big contract but has never shown much to me and moves to another hitters haven.

6) B McCarthy- I know hes been a highly touted young arm but Im thinking he falters somewhat in the heat of Texas.

7) J Damon- Call this one a small hunch. Showed up to camp heavy (as in pudgy not muscular). I just have a feeling Cabrera steals more and more atbats from him as the year goes on.

8) O Dotel- Yeah hes probably not being drafted high but I still don’t think hell be fully recovered from his surgery. Last year he threw 91 mph and had zero movement on the ball. I wouldn’t even waste a late pick on him especially since KC sucks.

10) A Gordon- OK maybe this is a weird one. All Im saying is not to reach for perhaps the top hitting prospect in baseball. KC has M Teahan and R Shealy at the corners blocking his progression and its not like their offense is any good anyway. Id pass.

15 sleepers:

3) M Beuhrle- It seems control pitchers always seem to have off years but they also always bounce back. Glavine and Saberhagen are 2 guys who would follow the good year, bad year pattern. Im thinking the same thing happens to Beuhrle and he has a great year.

4) J Bonderman- Not much of a stretch but I think he becomes Detroits ace this year. The ace on a WS contending team is pretty valuable IMO.

7) Bedard- Another stud IMO. Tends to get hurt a bit but I think he approaches 16 wins this year with a lot of Ks and a healthy ERA. :

8) J Valverde- Young, up and coming team, bad division, good depth in rotation, throws gas. Call me crazy but IMO he will be a stud closer.

9) N Markakis- Has all the tools and patience to be a perennial AS OFer. Last year came on towards the end. No fluke.

10) F Cordero- He was always a stud closer for Tex and he struggled a bit causing Showalter to inexplicably pull him out of the closer role hurting his confidence. Became dominant again after going to MIL. Mil is a solid team with deep pitching in a bad division. I think he will be a top closer this year.

12) J Maine- I don’t know how the Mets do it but they always seem to have solid pitching without top notch names. Maine looked really good in stretches last year. Pitching in a weak NL for a WS contender he could be a steal.

13) S Victorino- Gets the full time role. Should be a good player to fill up all the categories for you. Will put up solid numbers in SBs, BA, HRs

:( Not half bad if you ask me

 

[shadyridr]

13) S Victorino- Gets the full time role. Should be a good player to fill up all the categories for you. Will put up solid numbers in SBs, BA, HRs

I am a phillies fan....and i can say for sure if your counting for "solid" numbers for HR's from Victorino, your in trouble.... other than that, he is a solid player who will have a solid year i think, just not many HR's

Eagles09

5 more HRs away from my prediction of 15 HRs

 

[shadyridr]

Solid list. I think they're wrong about Buehrle, who looks completely done to me. I also think listing Lilly while not listing Marquis is a big oversight. Both pitchers in the same position, one is clearly inferior.

Good calls on Thomas, Peralta and Damon.

Why? He has too much of a great track record to be done IMO. Unless you think hes injured or something.

Allowed hitters to bat over .300 against him last year. Velocity and strikeout rate were way down and his arm has a lot of miles on it. Those 5 straight years of 200 innings finally caught up with him in 2006. Before the wiseacres chime in that he pitched 200 innings in 2006, he was clearly not the same pitcher, going from an extreme groundball pitcher to an extreme flyball pitcher. He might be able to hide that flaw in the NL, or even in a different park, so his eventual signing with the Cardinals in 2008 might lead to a resurgence.He's just been abused.

Not many people were as high as I was on Beuhrle this year.

 

[Your Mother]

2007 predicitions

10 players to stay away from:

1) JD Drew- probably on everyone’s stay away from list. But he always gets hurt, he signed a huge contract, and he’s playing in one of the most intense media markets in baseball. All signs point to bust.

2) F Thomas- I know he had a huge bounceback year last year but Im thinking he declines this year. Just signed a big deal and even though I know he’s a DH, playing on turf could really hinder at-bats.

3) J Peralta- Reminds me of Carlos Baerga, ie had a few good seasons (in his case 1) got too lazy, fat, and declined.

4) A Eaton- Signed a big contract but has never shown much to me and moves to another hitters haven.

5) C Wang- I hope Im wrong here, I really do but his outs per balls put in play last year were far higher than normal. He may have been lucky (although guys with a 94mph heavy sinker are hard to come by) . Plus you wont get any strikeouts from him.

6) B McCarthy- I know hes been a highly touted young arm but Im thinking he falters somewhat in the heat of Texas.

7) J Damon- Call this one a small hunch. Showed up to camp heavy (as in pudgy not muscular). I just have a feeling Cabrera steals more and more atbats from him as the year goes on.

8) O Dotel- Yeah hes probably not being drafted high but I still don’t think hell be fully recovered from his surgery. Last year he threw 91 mph and had zero movement on the ball. I wouldn’t even waste a late pick on him especially since KC sucks.

9) T Lilly- Another guy who got a huge who didn’t deserve one. A 6 inning fly ball pitcher pitching in the Windy City. Yikes

10) A Gordon- OK maybe this is a weird one. All Im saying is not to reach for perhaps the top hitting prospect in baseball. KC has M Teahan and R Shealy at the corners blocking his progression and its not like their offense is any good anyway. Id pass.

15 sleepers:

1) P Hughes- Maybe it’s the NY media but this guy has been getting rave reviews in camp already. Throws a sneaky 94mph fastball and a devastating curve. I have a feeling either Igawa or Pavano falters within a month and Hughes is called up to be the 5th starter the rest of the way. Could be this years Verlander.

2) H Kendrick- Call me crazy but I think this kid is the next Tony Gwynn. He can hit. Great player to have as a 2B (Im not sure what he is eligible for).

3) M Beuhrle- It seems control pitchers always seem to have off years but they also always bounce back. Glavine and Saberhagen are 2 guys who would follow the good year, bad year pattern. Im thinking the same thing happens to Beuhrle and he has a great year.

4) J Bonderman- Not much of a stretch but I think he becomes Detroits ace this year. The ace on a WS contending team is pretty valuable IMO.

5) S Drew- Little brother had a good start to his career last year. On a young exciting team can put up some solid numbers this year.

6) R Weeks- Don’t forget about him cuz of his injury or his absolutely horrible defense. Is still eligible at 2B and will put up a ton of SBs

7) Bedard- Another stud IMO. Tends to get hurt a bit but I think he approaches 16 wins this year with a lot of Ks and a healthy ERA.

8) J Valverde- Young, up and coming team, bad division, good depth in rotation, throws gas. Call me crazy but IMO he will be a stud closer.

9) N Markakis- Has all the tools and patience to be a perennial AS OFer. Last year came on towards the end. No fluke.

10) F Cordero- He was always a stud closer for Tex and he struggled a bit causing Showalter to inexplicably pull him out of the closer role hurting his confidence. Became dominant again after going to MIL. Mil is a solid team with deep pitching in a bad division. I think he will be a top closer this year.

11) G Laird- He can hit and can even steal bases. In that ballpark could be a top catcher. Finally getting his chance now that Buck is gone and he is no longer blocked by Buck’s man love for Barajas.

12) J Maine- I don’t know how the Mets do it but they always seem to have solid pitching without top notch names. Maine looked really good in stretches last year. Pitching in a weak NL for a WS contender he could be a steal.

13) S Victorino- Gets the full time role. Should be a good player to fill up all the categories for you. Will put up solid numbers in SBs, BA, HRs

14) R Shealy- Somebody’s gotta put up power #s in KC. Why not him?

15) J Davis- OK for ####s and giggles I put him back on again. I just think he has closer stuff and Cleveland’s closer right now is Joe Borowski. I still think he’ll eventually become closer. Maybe Ill be right this year.

Its scary how right Ive been thru April on some of these picks. Especially John Maine. Hopefully my prognostication lasts a full season. Please move to the baseball forum.

Your guys to stay away from were not really that revelatory. McCarthy? Eaton?

 

[shadyridr]

2007 predicitions

10 players to stay away from:

1) JD Drew- probably on everyone’s stay away from list. But he always gets hurt, he signed a huge contract, and he’s playing in one of the most intense media markets in baseball. All signs point to bust.

2) F Thomas- I know he had a huge bounceback year last year but Im thinking he declines this year. Just signed a big deal and even though I know he’s a DH, playing on turf could really hinder at-bats.

3) J Peralta- Reminds me of Carlos Baerga, ie had a few good seasons (in his case 1) got too lazy, fat, and declined.

4) A Eaton- Signed a big contract but has never shown much to me and moves to another hitters haven.

5) C Wang- I hope Im wrong here, I really do but his outs per balls put in play last year were far higher than normal. He may have been lucky (although guys with a 94mph heavy sinker are hard to come by) . Plus you wont get any strikeouts from him.

6) B McCarthy- I know hes been a highly touted young arm but Im thinking he falters somewhat in the heat of Texas.

7) J Damon- Call this one a small hunch. Showed up to camp heavy (as in pudgy not muscular). I just have a feeling Cabrera steals more and more atbats from him as the year goes on.

8) O Dotel- Yeah hes probably not being drafted high but I still don’t think hell be fully recovered from his surgery. Last year he threw 91 mph and had zero movement on the ball. I wouldn’t even waste a late pick on him especially since KC sucks.

9) T Lilly- Another guy who got a huge who didn’t deserve one. A 6 inning fly ball pitcher pitching in the Windy City. Yikes

10) A Gordon- OK maybe this is a weird one. All Im saying is not to reach for perhaps the top hitting prospect in baseball. KC has M Teahan and R Shealy at the corners blocking his progression and its not like their offense is any good anyway. Id pass.

15 sleepers:

1) P Hughes- Maybe it’s the NY media but this guy has been getting rave reviews in camp already. Throws a sneaky 94mph fastball and a devastating curve. I have a feeling either Igawa or Pavano falters within a month and Hughes is called up to be the 5th starter the rest of the way. Could be this years Verlander.

2) H Kendrick- Call me crazy but I think this kid is the next Tony Gwynn. He can hit. Great player to have as a 2B (Im not sure what he is eligible for).

3) M Beuhrle- It seems control pitchers always seem to have off years but they also always bounce back. Glavine and Saberhagen are 2 guys who would follow the good year, bad year pattern. Im thinking the same thing happens to Beuhrle and he has a great year.

4) J Bonderman- Not much of a stretch but I think he becomes Detroits ace this year. The ace on a WS contending team is pretty valuable IMO.

5) S Drew- Little brother had a good start to his career last year. On a young exciting team can put up some solid numbers this year.

6) R Weeks- Don’t forget about him cuz of his injury or his absolutely horrible defense. Is still eligible at 2B and will put up a ton of SBs

7) Bedard- Another stud IMO. Tends to get hurt a bit but I think he approaches 16 wins this year with a lot of Ks and a healthy ERA.

8) J Valverde- Young, up and coming team, bad division, good depth in rotation, throws gas. Call me crazy but IMO he will be a stud closer.

9) N Markakis- Has all the tools and patience to be a perennial AS OFer. Last year came on towards the end. No fluke.

10) F Cordero- He was always a stud closer for Tex and he struggled a bit causing Showalter to inexplicably pull him out of the closer role hurting his confidence. Became dominant again after going to MIL. Mil is a solid team with deep pitching in a bad division. I think he will be a top closer this year.

11) G Laird- He can hit and can even steal bases. In that ballpark could be a top catcher. Finally getting his chance now that Buck is gone and he is no longer blocked by Buck’s man love for Barajas.

12) J Maine- I don’t know how the Mets do it but they always seem to have solid pitching without top notch names. Maine looked really good in stretches last year. Pitching in a weak NL for a WS contender he could be a steal.

13) S Victorino- Gets the full time role. Should be a good player to fill up all the categories for you. Will put up solid numbers in SBs, BA, HRs

14) R Shealy- Somebody’s gotta put up power #s in KC. Why not him?

15) J Davis- OK for ####s and giggles I put him back on again. I just think he has closer stuff and Cleveland’s closer right now is Joe Borowski. I still think he’ll eventually become closer. Maybe Ill be right this year.

Its scary how right Ive been thru April on some of these picks. Especially John Maine. Hopefully my prognostication lasts a full season. Please move to the baseball forum.

Your guys to stay away from were not really that revelatory. McCarthy? Eaton?

McCarthy was a top pitching prospect. And Eaton got a big contract like Marquis, Meche, and Lilly. The other 3 have pitched pretty well.

 

[Your Mother]

2007 predicitions

10 players to stay away from:

1) JD Drew- probably on everyone’s stay away from list. But he always gets hurt, he signed a huge contract, and he’s playing in one of the most intense media markets in baseball. All signs point to bust.

2) F Thomas- I know he had a huge bounceback year last year but Im thinking he declines this year. Just signed a big deal and even though I know he’s a DH, playing on turf could really hinder at-bats.

3) J Peralta- Reminds me of Carlos Baerga, ie had a few good seasons (in his case 1) got too lazy, fat, and declined.

4) A Eaton- Signed a big contract but has never shown much to me and moves to another hitters haven.

5) C Wang- I hope Im wrong here, I really do but his outs per balls put in play last year were far higher than normal. He may have been lucky (although guys with a 94mph heavy sinker are hard to come by) . Plus you wont get any strikeouts from him.

6) B McCarthy- I know hes been a highly touted young arm but Im thinking he falters somewhat in the heat of Texas.

7) J Damon- Call this one a small hunch. Showed up to camp heavy (as in pudgy not muscular). I just have a feeling Cabrera steals more and more atbats from him as the year goes on.

8) O Dotel- Yeah hes probably not being drafted high but I still don’t think hell be fully recovered from his surgery. Last year he threw 91 mph and had zero movement on the ball. I wouldn’t even waste a late pick on him especially since KC sucks.

9) T Lilly- Another guy who got a huge who didn’t deserve one. A 6 inning fly ball pitcher pitching in the Windy City. Yikes

10) A Gordon- OK maybe this is a weird one. All Im saying is not to reach for perhaps the top hitting prospect in baseball. KC has M Teahan and R Shealy at the corners blocking his progression and its not like their offense is any good anyway. Id pass.

15 sleepers:

1) P Hughes- Maybe it’s the NY media but this guy has been getting rave reviews in camp already. Throws a sneaky 94mph fastball and a devastating curve. I have a feeling either Igawa or Pavano falters within a month and Hughes is called up to be the 5th starter the rest of the way. Could be this years Verlander.

2) H Kendrick- Call me crazy but I think this kid is the next Tony Gwynn. He can hit. Great player to have as a 2B (Im not sure what he is eligible for).

3) M Beuhrle- It seems control pitchers always seem to have off years but they also always bounce back. Glavine and Saberhagen are 2 guys who would follow the good year, bad year pattern. Im thinking the same thing happens to Beuhrle and he has a great year.

4) J Bonderman- Not much of a stretch but I think he becomes Detroits ace this year. The ace on a WS contending team is pretty valuable IMO.

5) S Drew- Little brother had a good start to his career last year. On a young exciting team can put up some solid numbers this year.

6) R Weeks- Don’t forget about him cuz of his injury or his absolutely horrible defense. Is still eligible at 2B and will put up a ton of SBs

7) Bedard- Another stud IMO. Tends to get hurt a bit but I think he approaches 16 wins this year with a lot of Ks and a healthy ERA.

8) J Valverde- Young, up and coming team, bad division, good depth in rotation, throws gas. Call me crazy but IMO he will be a stud closer.

9) N Markakis- Has all the tools and patience to be a perennial AS OFer. Last year came on towards the end. No fluke.

10) F Cordero- He was always a stud closer for Tex and he struggled a bit causing Showalter to inexplicably pull him out of the closer role hurting his confidence. Became dominant again after going to MIL. Mil is a solid team with deep pitching in a bad division. I think he will be a top closer this year.

11) G Laird- He can hit and can even steal bases. In that ballpark could be a top catcher. Finally getting his chance now that Buck is gone and he is no longer blocked by Buck’s man love for Barajas.

12) J Maine- I don’t know how the Mets do it but they always seem to have solid pitching without top notch names. Maine looked really good in stretches last year. Pitching in a weak NL for a WS contender he could be a steal.

13) S Victorino- Gets the full time role. Should be a good player to fill up all the categories for you. Will put up solid numbers in SBs, BA, HRs

14) R Shealy- Somebody’s gotta put up power #s in KC. Why not him?

15) J Davis- OK for ####s and giggles I put him back on again. I just think he has closer stuff and Cleveland’s closer right now is Joe Borowski. I still think he’ll eventually become closer. Maybe Ill be right this year.

Its scary how right Ive been thru April on some of these picks. Especially John Maine. Hopefully my prognostication lasts a full season. Please move to the baseball forum.

Your guys to stay away from were not really that revelatory. McCarthy? Eaton?

McCarthy was a top pitching prospect. And Eaton got a big contract like Marquis, Meche, and Lilly. The other 3 have pitched pretty well.

1) Marquis has not pitched well, he's been lucky.2) McCarthy was touted coming up, but was anyone looking at him in the first 15 rounds of redrafts this year? I don't know his ADP offhand, but it couldn't have been that high. He's a guy you take a flyer on and hope to get lucky with, calling his ineffectiveness isn't a huge stretch.

3) $$$ doesn't always = effectiveness. Did anyone really expect Barry Zito to be one of the best 5 pitchers in baseball this year?

 

[RedRaiders]

How was Jeremy Bonderman a sleeper?

fwiw, Eaton did not get big "lilly, meche" money. he got 3 years, 24 million or something. No 5/55 or 6/60 type deal.

 

[Wrigley]

2007 predicitions

10 players to stay away from:

1) JD Drew- probably on everyone’s stay away from list. But he always gets hurt, he signed a huge contract, and he’s playing in one of the most intense media markets in baseball. All signs point to bust.

2) F Thomas- I know he had a huge bounceback year last year but Im thinking he declines this year. Just signed a big deal and even though I know he’s a DH, playing on turf could really hinder at-bats.

3) J Peralta- Reminds me of Carlos Baerga, ie had a few good seasons (in his case 1) got too lazy, fat, and declined.

4) A Eaton- Signed a big contract but has never shown much to me and moves to another hitters haven.

5) C Wang- I hope Im wrong here, I really do but his outs per balls put in play last year were far higher than normal. He may have been lucky (although guys with a 94mph heavy sinker are hard to come by) . Plus you wont get any strikeouts from him.

6) B McCarthy- I know hes been a highly touted young arm but Im thinking he falters somewhat in the heat of Texas.

7) J Damon- Call this one a small hunch. Showed up to camp heavy (as in pudgy not muscular). I just have a feeling Cabrera steals more and more atbats from him as the year goes on.

8) O Dotel- Yeah hes probably not being drafted high but I still don’t think hell be fully recovered from his surgery. Last year he threw 91 mph and had zero movement on the ball. I wouldn’t even waste a late pick on him especially since KC sucks.

9) T Lilly- Another guy who got a huge who didn’t deserve one. A 6 inning fly ball pitcher pitching in the Windy City. Yikes

10) A Gordon- OK maybe this is a weird one. All Im saying is not to reach for perhaps the top hitting prospect in baseball. KC has M Teahan and R Shealy at the corners blocking his progression and its not like their offense is any good anyway. Id pass.

15 sleepers:

1) P Hughes- Maybe it’s the NY media but this guy has been getting rave reviews in camp already. Throws a sneaky 94mph fastball and a devastating curve. I have a feeling either Igawa or Pavano falters within a month and Hughes is called up to be the 5th starter the rest of the way. Could be this years Verlander.

2) H Kendrick- Call me crazy but I think this kid is the next Tony Gwynn. He can hit. Great player to have as a 2B (Im not sure what he is eligible for).

3) M Beuhrle- It seems control pitchers always seem to have off years but they also always bounce back. Glavine and Saberhagen are 2 guys who would follow the good year, bad year pattern. Im thinking the same thing happens to Beuhrle and he has a great year.

4) J Bonderman- Not much of a stretch but I think he becomes Detroits ace this year. The ace on a WS contending team is pretty valuable IMO.

5) S Drew- Little brother had a good start to his career last year. On a young exciting team can put up some solid numbers this year.

6) R Weeks- Don’t forget about him cuz of his injury or his absolutely horrible defense. Is still eligible at 2B and will put up a ton of SBs

7) Bedard- Another stud IMO. Tends to get hurt a bit but I think he approaches 16 wins this year with a lot of Ks and a healthy ERA.

8) J Valverde- Young, up and coming team, bad division, good depth in rotation, throws gas. Call me crazy but IMO he will be a stud closer.

9) N Markakis- Has all the tools and patience to be a perennial AS OFer. Last year came on towards the end. No fluke.

10) F Cordero- He was always a stud closer for Tex and he struggled a bit causing Showalter to inexplicably pull him out of the closer role hurting his confidence. Became dominant again after going to MIL. Mil is a solid team with deep pitching in a bad division. I think he will be a top closer this year.

11) G Laird- He can hit and can even steal bases. In that ballpark could be a top catcher. Finally getting his chance now that Buck is gone and he is no longer blocked by Buck’s man love for Barajas.

12) J Maine- I don’t know how the Mets do it but they always seem to have solid pitching without top notch names. Maine looked really good in stretches last year. Pitching in a weak NL for a WS contender he could be a steal.

13) S Victorino- Gets the full time role. Should be a good player to fill up all the categories for you. Will put up solid numbers in SBs, BA, HRs

14) R Shealy- Somebody’s gotta put up power #s in KC. Why not him?

15) J Davis- OK for ####s and giggles I put him back on again. I just think he has closer stuff and Cleveland’s closer right now is Joe Borowski. I still think he’ll eventually become closer. Maybe Ill be right this year.

Its scary how right Ive been thru April on some of these picks. Especially John Maine. Hopefully my prognostication lasts a full season. Please move to the baseball forum.

Your guys to stay away from were not really that revelatory. McCarthy? Eaton?

McCarthy was a top pitching prospect. And Eaton got a big contract like Marquis, Meche, and Lilly. The other 3 have pitched pretty well.

1) Marquis has not pitched well, he's been lucky.2) McCarthy was touted coming up, but was anyone looking at him in the first 15 rounds of redrafts this year? I don't know his ADP offhand, but it couldn't have been that high. He's a guy you take a flyer on and hope to get lucky with, calling his ineffectiveness isn't a huge stretch.

3) $$$ doesn't always = effectiveness. Did anyone really expect Barry Zito to be one of the best 5 pitchers in baseball this year?

6-4 with an ERA of 3.31 and a WHIP of 1.212 doesn't sound to lucky to me.

 

[Your Mother]

2007 predicitions

10 players to stay away from:

1) JD Drew- probably on everyone’s stay away from list. But he always gets hurt, he signed a huge contract, and he’s playing in one of the most intense media markets in baseball. All signs point to bust.

2) F Thomas- I know he had a huge bounceback year last year but Im thinking he declines this year. Just signed a big deal and even though I know he’s a DH, playing on turf could really hinder at-bats.

3) J Peralta- Reminds me of Carlos Baerga, ie had a few good seasons (in his case 1) got too lazy, fat, and declined.

4) A Eaton- Signed a big contract but has never shown much to me and moves to another hitters haven.

5) C Wang- I hope Im wrong here, I really do but his outs per balls put in play last year were far higher than normal. He may have been lucky (although guys with a 94mph heavy sinker are hard to come by) . Plus you wont get any strikeouts from him.

6) B McCarthy- I know hes been a highly touted young arm but Im thinking he falters somewhat in the heat of Texas.

7) J Damon- Call this one a small hunch. Showed up to camp heavy (as in pudgy not muscular). I just have a feeling Cabrera steals more and more atbats from him as the year goes on.

8) O Dotel- Yeah hes probably not being drafted high but I still don’t think hell be fully recovered from his surgery. Last year he threw 91 mph and had zero movement on the ball. I wouldn’t even waste a late pick on him especially since KC sucks.

9) T Lilly- Another guy who got a huge who didn’t deserve one. A 6 inning fly ball pitcher pitching in the Windy City. Yikes

10) A Gordon- OK maybe this is a weird one. All Im saying is not to reach for perhaps the top hitting prospect in baseball. KC has M Teahan and R Shealy at the corners blocking his progression and its not like their offense is any good anyway. Id pass.

15 sleepers:

1) P Hughes- Maybe it’s the NY media but this guy has been getting rave reviews in camp already. Throws a sneaky 94mph fastball and a devastating curve. I have a feeling either Igawa or Pavano falters within a month and Hughes is called up to be the 5th starter the rest of the way. Could be this years Verlander.

2) H Kendrick- Call me crazy but I think this kid is the next Tony Gwynn. He can hit. Great player to have as a 2B (Im not sure what he is eligible for).

3) M Beuhrle- It seems control pitchers always seem to have off years but they also always bounce back. Glavine and Saberhagen are 2 guys who would follow the good year, bad year pattern. Im thinking the same thing happens to Beuhrle and he has a great year.

4) J Bonderman- Not much of a stretch but I think he becomes Detroits ace this year. The ace on a WS contending team is pretty valuable IMO.

5) S Drew- Little brother had a good start to his career last year. On a young exciting team can put up some solid numbers this year.

6) R Weeks- Don’t forget about him cuz of his injury or his absolutely horrible defense. Is still eligible at 2B and will put up a ton of SBs

7) Bedard- Another stud IMO. Tends to get hurt a bit but I think he approaches 16 wins this year with a lot of Ks and a healthy ERA.

8) J Valverde- Young, up and coming team, bad division, good depth in rotation, throws gas. Call me crazy but IMO he will be a stud closer.

9) N Markakis- Has all the tools and patience to be a perennial AS OFer. Last year came on towards the end. No fluke.

10) F Cordero- He was always a stud closer for Tex and he struggled a bit causing Showalter to inexplicably pull him out of the closer role hurting his confidence. Became dominant again after going to MIL. Mil is a solid team with deep pitching in a bad division. I think he will be a top closer this year.

11) G Laird- He can hit and can even steal bases. In that ballpark could be a top catcher. Finally getting his chance now that Buck is gone and he is no longer blocked by Buck’s man love for Barajas.

12) J Maine- I don’t know how the Mets do it but they always seem to have solid pitching without top notch names. Maine looked really good in stretches last year. Pitching in a weak NL for a WS contender he could be a steal.

13) S Victorino- Gets the full time role. Should be a good player to fill up all the categories for you. Will put up solid numbers in SBs, BA, HRs

14) R Shealy- Somebody’s gotta put up power #s in KC. Why not him?

15) J Davis- OK for ####s and giggles I put him back on again. I just think he has closer stuff and Cleveland’s closer right now is Joe Borowski. I still think he’ll eventually become closer. Maybe Ill be right this year.

Its scary how right Ive been thru April on some of these picks. Especially John Maine. Hopefully my prognostication lasts a full season. Please move to the baseball forum.

Your guys to stay away from were not really that revelatory. McCarthy? Eaton?

McCarthy was a top pitching prospect. And Eaton got a big contract like Marquis, Meche, and Lilly. The other 3 have pitched pretty well.

1) Marquis has not pitched well, he's been lucky.2) McCarthy was touted coming up, but was anyone looking at him in the first 15 rounds of redrafts this year? I don't know his ADP offhand, but it couldn't have been that high. He's a guy you take a flyer on and hope to get lucky with, calling his ineffectiveness isn't a huge stretch.

3) $$$ doesn't always = effectiveness. Did anyone really expect Barry Zito to be one of the best 5 pitchers in baseball this year?

6-4 with an ERA of 3.31 and a WHIP of 1.212 doesn't sound to lucky to me.

5.27 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 is pretty unremarkable. His ERA and WHIP are low because his balls batted in play is far below the norm of .290, it's .240. Adjust for that, and his WHIP rises to 1.38.The balls that are in play are getting hit right at people, which is good for him, but not something he can control.

 

[shadyridr]

How was Jeremy Bonderman a sleeper?fwiw, Eaton did not get big "lilly, meche" money. he got 3 years, 24 million or something. No 5/55 or 6/60 type deal.

In my original column I made the point of saying it wasnt much of a stretch but I said Bonderman would put up Cy Young type numbers this year.

 

[shadyridr]

7) Carlos Pena- I have a feeling the last time he was sent down last year made him realize how hard he has to work to stay in the majors. I think he becomes a solid 1B this year and hits 280 with 25 HRs and 80 RBIs

I have to say, I get my share right and wrong but I was a year early on Pena. Ahead of my time.