14 (or larger) Team League -- Draft Strategy (1 Viewer)

[Lambert]

I'm anxiously awaiting David's 14-team version of the perfect draft, but in the meantime, I thought I'd try to start a little discussion here. Most of the draft strategy is focused on the standard 12 teamers (which is understandable given that it's the most common), but quite a few of us are in larger leagues where those strategies don't quite fit.

I'm throwing out some random thoughts I have here, but I'd like to hear what others think about strategy changes for larger leagues this season.

For example, given the dwindling number of non-RBBC backs, I'm knocking the non-RBs down somewhat in my overall rankings compared to what I would do in a 10 or 12 team league. I feel a lot more comfortable in my smaller leagues waiting a little longer on my #2 or #3 RB and still being able to get some solid picks and decent sleepers. I'm tentatively thinking as follows:

(1) Teams in the bottom half of the draft should lean more strongly toward going RB-RB in Rounds 1 and 2 than they would in smaller leagues. (Needless to say, I'm not suggesting this as an absolute rule -- if great value falls at another position, you'd obviously deviate from this.)

(2) Teams in the top half have a little more flexibility, but should lean more strongly toward getting 2 RBs by their 3rd pick.

I've got the first pick in my 14-teamer (LT obviously), and as tempted as I am to take two top WRs at the 2-3 turn, I feel like I have to take at least 1 RB there. If you go WR-WR at 2-3, you may end up with Lamont Jordan (or worse) as your #2 RB by the time the draft gets back to you at pick 56 (4th round).

Agree? Disagree?

Also, what other unrelated strategy tweaks do you like for this year's draft in your larger leagues?

Those of you that have already drafted in 14 teamers (or larger), any insights from your draft? There's not a lot of ADP info specifically for 14 team leagues that I've found online.

 

[Lambert]

bump

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Been drafting in a 14-team league for more than 5 years, and there is no doubt that you cannot afford to wait on RBs. With roughly 15 RBs who are not in an RBBC, going RB in round one is gospel. Unless your league is a start 3 WR, I would nab a quality RB #2 in the second, and get the highest value WR when it comes back to you in the third.

In general, I normally like to sit on drafting QBs and TEs, and get as much value as I can through the first six rounds in the RB and WR position. Normally, there are a couple of bona fide studs in these positions, with a fairly large drop-off afterwards; however, the projected FP differential between the #5 and the #14 is usually nominal. For this reason, I like depth and options on my roster at RB and WR before I pick up anyone at other skill positions.

That said, in 14-team leagues, you have to respect runs, especially when you are drafting at the head or tail of the round. With 22-26 picks until your next one, you can get caught by being too comfortable that a lower tier player you are especially targeting will fall to you.

Runs in these kinds of leagues throw many owners into panic as they see QBs and TEs fly off the board, and they act accordingly, not wanting to end up with a tandem of Leinert and Harrington. I've had a lot of success in past years not just staying ahead of these runs, but starting them -- again, especially when I am near the head or tail of the round. By forcing others to follow your lead, you secure a quality starter, and cause targeted players to fall to you as others scramble to secure their roster.

 

[Lambert]

Been drafting in a 14-team league for more than 5 years, and there is no doubt that you cannot afford to wait on RBs. With roughly 15 RBs who are not in an RBBC, going RB in round one is gospel. Unless your league is a start 3 WR, I would nab a quality RB #2 in the second, and get the highest value WR when it comes back to you in the third. In general, I normally like to sit on drafting QBs and TEs, and get as much value as I can through the first six rounds in the RB and WR position. Normally, there are a couple of bona fide studs in these positions, with a fairly large drop-off afterwards; however, the projected FP differential between the #5 and the #14 is usually nominal. For this reason, I like depth and options on my roster at RB and WR before I pick up anyone at other skill positions.That said, in 14-team leagues, you have to respect runs, especially when you are drafting at the head or tail of the round. With 22-26 picks until your next one, you can get caught by being too comfortable that a lower tier player you are especially targeting will fall to you.Runs in these kinds of leagues throw many owners into panic as they see QBs and TEs fly off the board, and they act accordingly, not wanting to end up with a tandem of Leinert and Harrington. I've had a lot of success in past years not just staying ahead of these runs, but starting them -- again, especially when I am near the head or tail of the round. By forcing others to follow your lead, you secure a quality starter, and cause targeted players to fall to you as others scramble to secure their roster.

Interesting point about the runs ... one of the things that concerns me are the possible runs at QB. What QBs are you targeting in your 14 team league and where are you planning to try to draft them?

 

[JoeyJoeJoeJr]

Been drafting in a 14-team league for more than 5 years, and there is no doubt that you cannot afford to wait on RBs. With roughly 15 RBs who are not in an RBBC, going RB in round one is gospel. Unless your league is a start 3 WR, I would nab a quality RB #2 in the second, and get the highest value WR when it comes back to you in the third. In general, I normally like to sit on drafting QBs and TEs, and get as much value as I can through the first six rounds in the RB and WR position. Normally, there are a couple of bona fide studs in these positions, with a fairly large drop-off afterwards; however, the projected FP differential between the #5 and the #14 is usually nominal. For this reason, I like depth and options on my roster at RB and WR before I pick up anyone at other skill positions.That said, in 14-team leagues, you have to respect runs, especially when you are drafting at the head or tail of the round. With 22-26 picks until your next one, you can get caught by being too comfortable that a lower tier player you are especially targeting will fall to you.Runs in these kinds of leagues throw many owners into panic as they see QBs and TEs fly off the board, and they act accordingly, not wanting to end up with a tandem of Leinert and Harrington. I've had a lot of success in past years not just staying ahead of these runs, but starting them -- again, especially when I am near the head or tail of the round. By forcing others to follow your lead, you secure a quality starter, and cause targeted players to fall to you as others scramble to secure their roster.

Interesting point about the runs ... one of the things that concerns me are the possible runs at QB. What QBs are you targeting in your 14 team league and where are you planning to try to draft them?

In the 14 team league I just drafted in, the QB strategy listed in the perfect draft article was bumped up a round. Young, Romo, and Kitna all went in the 6th, and I picked Roethlisburger at 7.06. Brady, Bulger, Palmer and Brees went between 3.10 and 4.05. The next tier started going at 5.07, and ended with manning at 7.07.

 

[Lambert]

Been drafting in a 14-team league for more than 5 years, and there is no doubt that you cannot afford to wait on RBs. With roughly 15 RBs who are not in an RBBC, going RB in round one is gospel. Unless your league is a start 3 WR, I would nab a quality RB #2 in the second, and get the highest value WR when it comes back to you in the third. In general, I normally like to sit on drafting QBs and TEs, and get as much value as I can through the first six rounds in the RB and WR position. Normally, there are a couple of bona fide studs in these positions, with a fairly large drop-off afterwards; however, the projected FP differential between the #5 and the #14 is usually nominal. For this reason, I like depth and options on my roster at RB and WR before I pick up anyone at other skill positions.That said, in 14-team leagues, you have to respect runs, especially when you are drafting at the head or tail of the round. With 22-26 picks until your next one, you can get caught by being too comfortable that a lower tier player you are especially targeting will fall to you.Runs in these kinds of leagues throw many owners into panic as they see QBs and TEs fly off the board, and they act accordingly, not wanting to end up with a tandem of Leinert and Harrington. I've had a lot of success in past years not just staying ahead of these runs, but starting them -- again, especially when I am near the head or tail of the round. By forcing others to follow your lead, you secure a quality starter, and cause targeted players to fall to you as others scramble to secure their roster.

Interesting point about the runs ... one of the things that concerns me are the possible runs at QB. What QBs are you targeting in your 14 team league and where are you planning to try to draft them?

In the 14 team league I just drafted in, the QB strategy listed in the perfect draft article was bumped up a round. Young, Romo, and Kitna all went in the 6th, and I picked Roethlisburger at 7.06. Brady, Bulger, Palmer and Brees went between 3.10 and 4.05. The next tier started going at 5.07, and ended with manning at 7.07.

Interesting. In retrospect, are you happy with Ben in the 7th given the value you got at other positions in the earlier rounds, or would you go QB earlier to get a higher-tiered guy if you had it to do over?

 

[JoeyJoeJoeJr]

Been drafting in a 14-team league for more than 5 years, and there is no doubt that you cannot afford to wait on RBs. With roughly 15 RBs who are not in an RBBC, going RB in round one is gospel. Unless your league is a start 3 WR, I would nab a quality RB #2 in the second, and get the highest value WR when it comes back to you in the third. In general, I normally like to sit on drafting QBs and TEs, and get as much value as I can through the first six rounds in the RB and WR position. Normally, there are a couple of bona fide studs in these positions, with a fairly large drop-off afterwards; however, the projected FP differential between the #5 and the #14 is usually nominal. For this reason, I like depth and options on my roster at RB and WR before I pick up anyone at other skill positions.That said, in 14-team leagues, you have to respect runs, especially when you are drafting at the head or tail of the round. With 22-26 picks until your next one, you can get caught by being too comfortable that a lower tier player you are especially targeting will fall to you.Runs in these kinds of leagues throw many owners into panic as they see QBs and TEs fly off the board, and they act accordingly, not wanting to end up with a tandem of Leinert and Harrington. I've had a lot of success in past years not just staying ahead of these runs, but starting them -- again, especially when I am near the head or tail of the round. By forcing others to follow your lead, you secure a quality starter, and cause targeted players to fall to you as others scramble to secure their roster.

Interesting point about the runs ... one of the things that concerns me are the possible runs at QB. What QBs are you targeting in your 14 team league and where are you planning to try to draft them?

In the 14 team league I just drafted in, the QB strategy listed in the perfect draft article was bumped up a round. Young, Romo, and Kitna all went in the 6th, and I picked Roethlisburger at 7.06. Brady, Bulger, Palmer and Brees went between 3.10 and 4.05. The next tier started going at 5.07, and ended with manning at 7.07.

Interesting. In retrospect, are you happy with Ben in the 7th given the value you got at other positions in the earlier rounds, or would you go QB earlier to get a higher-tiered guy if you had it to do over?

I'm ok with Ben there. I picked Maroney, Henry, Housh, Portis, Lee Evans, Braylon Edwards in that order, 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 Flex PPR league. Portis dropped to the 4th round, which I thought was incredible value, and I still got Evans in the 5th. instead of Edwards I could have initiated that 2nd run on the QBs, and maybe then picked up a Greg Jennings or someone similar in the 7th, but I'm not disappointed by any means.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Along with Big Ben, I am targeting Kitna and Rivers, and hoping to see these guys fall to me in the 6th.

However, if the Top 4 QBs (I see them as Peyton, Brady, Palmer, and Bulger) go by the late third, depending on where I'm drafting from, I would nab Brees and try to start the QB run. I really like McNabb, but there is a bigger dropoff after Brees, and I don't see a huge difference in my projections between QB 6 through 10.

 

[NY/NJMFDIVER]

In 10-12 team leagues, my philosophy and motto has always been, "be the last man to draft a QB, but be the first one to draft 2" usually correctly gambling that one of the two mid range QBs I like will step up. I was only burned last year, when I went Farve and Delhomme in many leagues and got burned.

However, QB16 is too far a dip, so I'll have a guy in the QB 10-12 range that I'll target and pull the trigger on whereever I have to(round 5 to 7). This year, it would be a Kitna for me, but I can't take too big a hit on QB in a large league.

Other philosophies are league dependent, for instance, we start 2WR/ 1RB/ 1 Flex. With that in mind, I'll generally always take a WR in the 2nd or 3rd. Can't go RB RB RB like I would in most other leagues. Someone is starting the WR32 week in week out, so I want to try to have a top 12 WR to anchor and then gamble some WR comes up on the wire and is attractive.

 

[tombonneau]

In 10-12 team leagues, my philosophy and motto has always been, "be the last man to draft a QB, but be the first one to draft 2" usually correctly gambling that one of the two mid range QBs I like will step up. I was only burned last year, when I went Farve and Delhomme in many leagues and got burned.However, QB16 is too far a dip, so I'll have a guy in the QB 10-12 range that I'll target and pull the trigger on whereever I have to(round 5 to 7). This year, it would be a Kitna for me, but I can't take too big a hit on QB in a large league.Other philosophies are league dependent, for instance, we start 2WR/ 1RB/ 1 Flex. With that in mind, I'll generally always take a WR in the 2nd or 3rd. Can't go RB RB RB like I would in most other leagues. Someone is starting the WR32 week in week out, so I want to try to have a top 12 WR to anchor and then gamble some WR comes up on the wire and is attractive.

Just had my 14 team draft and did the same thing with QBs. Ended up with Leinart and then Big Ben. (Could have taken Romo instead of Leinart, personal preference). I def. advise being one of the last to take a QB1 and one of the first to take a QB2 (esp. if you are in a spot where you think you can start the QB2 run).As far as other positions, same as above, my league is 1rb 2wr 1flex, ppr. You really need to take a WR in round 2. With those rosters, you aren't forced to reach for a RB2; however, in most start 2 RB larger leagues, it sucks bc you kind of have to go rb-rb. All depends on your league and its drafting tendancies.

 

[sepporepi]

I was only burned last year, when I went Farve and Delhomme in many leagues and got burned.

Throw in Leftwich (traded him away for Farve in week 4) and you have the trio I tried to get production from last season.I am drafting 13th and played around a lot with mock drafts this year. I think anything you do in round 1/2in this spot can be wrong depending on the next 24 picks. You go RB/RB the rest does it too and picks 1/2/3 get tweo stud receivers ora stud WR and a very good RB2. Pick RB/WR they still will get a very good WR and most likely a even better RB2.But with picks 41/44 the first tier WRs a gone, also the second tier RBs. So you are behind in RB AND WR.I got my best results with Peyton Manning in round 1 and a RB in round 2.For such a big league a 3rd round reversal seems imperative. Without one the last spot have a serious disadvantage almost impossible to overcome, if the first spot to not make big mistakes in the first 5 rounds.

 

[Bad_Mo]

Got the #3 pick in my 14-teamer.

I've never drafted a QB in the 3rd before but may be tempted to grab Palmer or Bulger if they are there. I've gotten lucky with some QB picks in the 6th and 7th rounds in the past but find myself always struggling with lineup decisions.

It would be nice to have 3 positions locked up, all with guys in the top 5 at their position, by the end of round 3. SJax, C. Johnson and Palmer would be a damn good start, IMO. Problem would be finding a quality RB2 in round 4.

 

[-OZ-]

We're finishing our 14 team draft this week, started back in late June (yes, it's been a slow process)

Our lineups are a bit different, 2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 R/W, 2 W/T, 1 PK, 1 DEF - so we can start 4 RBs or 2 RBs with 6 WRs, or various combinations.

The first few rounds are easy, but you have to know your players after the top 100.

First 3 rounds everyone took a RB, many took 2.

4-10 try to grab solid starters, but some owners start taking risks / sleepers

11-16, you're just trying to fill byes or get some players who will produce points.

17+ sleeper picks, K/D, just trying to strike gold

draft page Can't get my 2nd spoiler tag to work, so I just give the link.

I enjoy larger leagues. I won't say they're more difficult, but I enjoy the depth you have to know. 10 O starters per team (for us) X 14 teams = 140 players. Compared to 12 team leagues, where you may start 8 players at most (96 players), you see the difference.

FWIW, making an early mistake like taking Vick is going to hurt, bad.

 

[veto87]

I'm in a 16 team PPR, 1 keeper league( mine is SJax) so essentially all the good RBs are gone. I've always done VBD and it's worked OK but sometimes you have to take some chances earlier than other drafts. Start the TE and DEF runs and draft value RBs who could eventually get the nod or are starting due to injury. With 1 QB 2 RB 2WR Flex you have to realize that there are 32 teams in the NFL and 32 starting RB maybe 10 to 15 NOT in a RBBC so drafting by VBD helps you early in the season and taking a chance on some value backups could put you in the position of having 3 good starting RBs by the time your fantasy playoffs start. Also scour the waiverwire for those breakout WRs that happen every year (Colston and Cotchery, Lee Evans 2006, Michael Clayton 2004 etc)

 

[Biabreakable]

Nice topic.

I do think larger leagues are more challenging. You wait a long time in between picks compared to a 12 team league. Round 3 goes to pick 36 in a 12 teamer. Round 2 is 32 picks in a 16 team league. ADP from 12 team leagues will not apply and you have to plan your draft more carefully in regards to position scarcity.

I think larger leagues are dominated more by the production of early picks than in a typical 12 team league. Having one of your 1st 3 picks bust hurts a lot more in a larger league because your 4th round and later picks are coming from a much lower tier than they would be in a 12 teamer.

Round 4 12 teams = 48 players or top 50. Round 4 in 16 = 64 players or well out of the top 50. And so on.

Sleeper picks become expontentialy more valuable in larger leagues. Other teams will not have as many high scoring players on thier roster to match up to them. Larger leagues can be won through 3 core players while it takes a more balanced roster to win in a 12 team league.

Draft strategy would be dictated by scoring still but position scarcity at RB and QB almost force high picks on them before they are all gone. You are not as able to wait to draft a starting position of need as you would be in smaller leagues because there just wont be anyone worth having left if you do. Getting squeezed in positional runs happens more often with such a long wait between picks. Especially if drafting on the ends. Drafting late is harder imo in a larger league than in a 12 teamer. Drafting high is more of an advantage than normal.

 

[djjosee]

 

[mrward_1]

Great topic, been looking to see what others think about the larger league draft strategy.

I am drafting #4 spot in a 16 team league on Saturday. I am hoping I can get to the 6th round before taking a QB (Kitna, Romo, Rivers, Cutler, Big Ben) and plan to draft all RB and WR in the first 5 rounds. We start 1 QB/2RB/ 2 WRorTE/1 FLEX so I want to load up at RB/WR so I have 5 quality starters to throw out there most weeks.

I'm also planning to try the Defense By Committee that was suggested in an article on FBG with Minnesota and Tennessee so that I don't go early on a defense and can load up on more RB & WR's and some of my sleepers.

Still torn between Gore or FWP at #4, assuming LT, LJ, and SJax will got 1-3.