1st Proposed Player in Auction Draft (1 Viewer)

[Buckfast]

In the past years, I've read about how if there is a player past the top 1 or 2 players that you really covet, and you nominate him with the first overall spot in an auction draft then you can often get that player at a nice discount because many other players will be saving their bidding money for the top 1 or 2 players.

Last year, I made the mistake of nominating Peyton Manning first, because I thought it would burn up other player's money on an early QB, but it backfired somewhat because many players were saving their money for Tomlinson and thus Manning went for a pretty deep discount.

I got the 1st overall nomination again this year, and I'm debating about what I should do with my first nomination. With the logjam of runningbacks after Tomlinson and Peterson, it doesn't seem like there is any surefire RB pick after the top 2 that would be worth giving up a shot at Tomlinson or Peterson to get at a discount.

Any ideas of what I should do with this first pick? Should I throw out a top receiver? Should I pick between my favorite of the other top remaining RBs outside of Tomlinson and Peterson? Or should I just throw out one of the top 2 guys and see how the draft goes?

 

[Jersey35]

I always throw out a guy that is pretty hyped that I believe is overrated. A guy I don't want. In fact, until nearly the end of the auction, I rarely ever throw out a guy that I really want... or at least, wouldn't want for more than a dollar.

 

[Buckfast]

That is typically my strategy for any pick other than the top overall pick. However, I feel like the top overall pick is somewhat different because that hyped player would likely go for closer to his true value due to the fact that many players will be reserving their money waiting to bid on Tomlinson or Peterson. Thus, I feel like nominating an over-hyped player with the first overall pick actually works to your disadvantage rather than your advantage at that stage in the auction.

 

[BoltBacker]

Last year, I made the mistake of nominating Peyton Manning first, because I thought it would burn up other player's money on an early QB, but it backfired somewhat because many players were saving their money for Tomlinson and thus Manning went for a pretty deep discount.

Disagree.You're mistake wasn't in nominating Manning, it was allowing him to go off the board to someone else at a pretty deep discount. That's the beauty of the auction in the first place; you have to be awake for every player to ensure you aren't allowing other people to get the deeply discounted players whether you nominated them or not.

 

[roadkill1292]

Last year, I made the mistake of nominating Peyton Manning first, because I thought it would burn up other player's money on an early QB, but it backfired somewhat because many players were saving their money for Tomlinson and thus Manning went for a pretty deep discount.

Disagree.You're mistake wasn't in nominating Manning, it was allowing him to go off the board to someone else at a pretty deep discount. That's the beauty of the auction in the first place; you have to be awake for every player to ensure you aren't allowing other people to get the deeply discounted players whether you nominated them or not.

If Peyton was out there for cheap, you gotta grab him. This year, nominate somebody like Larry Fitzgerald and see what happens.

 

[Joe Bryant]

This is real close to assistant coach forum material when it gets more toward what "should I do in my league?" Please keep the discussion to a general strategy discussion and not one's particular league and it can stay here.

J

 

[Buckfast]

I apologize. I meant it as a general discussion of the strategy behind nominating the first overall player, not specific advice of who in particular to nominate. I just used examples from my league last year to help illustrate the point.

 

[roadkill1292]

The strategic value of nominating a player first who may not be a first rounder is definitely a point worth debating. From what I've seen in 16 years of auctioning, it's very possible to procure a deal here but, as with almost any aspect of auctioning, it's not a slam dunk.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Brady

 

[DaddyFatSacks]

In the auctions that I'm in I notice a trend that the first player nominated usually turns out to be a good buy. I also notice that the the first player nominated in a particular tier is usually a good value. It seems to me that when guys get to the bottom of a tier those players get pricey.

 

[stevegamer]

I'd simply nominate a guy I like, that I'm a fan of, and that I'd take for $1 that wouldn't normally be nominated first.

It's different, and you just get to add any embellishment you want to the first player to be auctioned.

 

[Happy]

I've been doing Auction leagues for several years now, and it seems that every year the first player or two goes for a discount if it's not the #1 or #2 player (LT or ADP this year). Someone nominates a top 10 WR (say Steve Smith or Holt or Andre Johnson) and gets the player at a 15% discount of actual value. Why? Many owners want to hold on to their $$ as they think they're going to be in the running to get LT or ADP, and don't want to spend their money before. After the top 5 RBs are gone, people realize they need to spend their money and the bidding opens up.

I'm sure it varies in every league, but from my perspective, nominating LT first is not the right move. Nominate a 2nd tier WR or a #1 TE and any QB except the #1 or #2 (Manning/Brady) and get a deal. Then, once the top RBs are off the board, people will be overpaying for the RB#7-#15 if they didn't get one of the top few.

 

[H8fulHuck]

I agree that throwing LT or AD out first is a 4th and long move. I wouldn't lead with a $1 guy either as you can use that card any time.

If you like getting a top TE, this is the perfect place to shoot for good value. Most will be holding out for the top RB and will let one of the top 4 TE go thinking they still have 3 others to nab later. It shouldn't backfire unless someone has their heart set on that one guy you pick.

If I wasn't a TE guy, I'd put a middle of the pack WR1 or low end RB1 that I feel has solid value. For example, if you are high on Colston, he should be cheaper as the 1st top tier WR to go vs. the last of the top tier WR to go.

 

[flranger]

Joe,

Seriously???????? I think it's great topic.

Maybe we should wait for the Perfect Auction article that we never get instead?

 

[anakin]

Also if it is an in-person local auction, nominate the home team players. They always seem to be over-valued by fans of the teams. I have only done one auction, but won the league because I kept throwing out everyone's favorite teams players and I got ADP for $15 and Braylon for $6.

 

[GregR_2]

I think the situation he's asking about is very general... anyone with the first nomination in an auction is faced with it, so it's a very useful SP topic if you ask me.

I would nominate a guy you would like to target but who isn't one of the top players. Someone good but not uber elite, because the less he costs normally, the less the discount might be if he is the first player auctioned off. And I wouldn't just say that the first player auctioned goes for less because the other owners are saving their money. I think in many auctions, a large component of it is that people are unsure what prices will be and so they wait for the first few players to be auctioned, after which they feel like they can extrapolate that price to the rest of the player pool.

I think that's the kind of difference you see between a good FF owner and a regular one... the shark walks in knowing what he feels the players should go for, and if the first player goes for less he moves on him. If the players start going for more than they should, he knows that means other players later will be less expensive than they should (and the opposite if players start going for too cheap). He adjusts to take advantage of whatever is happening in the auction. But he does it based on his knowledge of what prices SHOULD be, and people spending other than what they should is just creating value plays somewhere in the auction that he can capitalize on.