1st Round RBs in NFL Draft (1 Viewer)

[RavenLunatic]

I was thinking about RB’s taken in the first round of the NFL draft, and their fantasy production.

Since 2000, only six RBs were taken as high as the 5th overall pick in the NFL draft. They were Jamal Lewis, LaDainian Tomlinson, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams, Reggie Bush and Darren McFadden. While some of their career numbers may have been disappointing due to injury or situation, none could be considered a total bust.

Within the top 10 also included Thomas Jones (late bloomer), Cedric Benson (late bloomer), Adrian Peterson (six teams passed on ADP!!!) and CJ Spiller (jury is out).

First round backs who were not top 10 but became studs (or had at least one very good season) include Shaun Alexander, Deuce McAllister, Willis McGahee, Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, DeAngelo Williams, Joseph Addai, Marshawn Lynch, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson and Ryan Matthews.

Jury is still out: Beanie Wells (promising if he can repeat in 2012), Jahvid Best (???) and Mark Ingram (all taken after the 20th pick).

Busts (or major disappointments): Ron Dayne (though his Week 16 performance as a Texan won me a title back in the day), Trung Candidate, William Green (ugh), TJ Duckett, Chris Perry, Kevin Jones (so promising), Ms. Laurence Maroney, Knowshawn Moreno and Donald Brown (possssibly a late bloomer ala Thomas Jones?).

Out of 35 RBs taken in the NFL Draft since 2000, 26% were busts…20% became uber studs…58% had a top 10 finish one year or more…and the jury is out on 14%.

Not including Mark Ingram/CJ Spiller (too early), the only RBs taken #1 in the year's draft who were busts are William Green and Knowshawn Moreno. Disappointments include Ronnie Brown, Reggie Bush and Darren McFadden (depending on who you ask). Great values who were first picks of the draft include McGahee and Jackson (taken after the 20th pick)…and future HOFers include Jamal Lewis, Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson (Picks 5, & 7).

While we can all debate true value, it appears that if you take the 1st RB off the NFL Draft board (at any spot), 77% will go on to be at least a RB2 or better. If they were drafted in the top 10, that success rate goes up even higher (though non-stud debate increases as well. Do you blame a guy for injury or only poor performance?

So, if Trent Richardson is the first RB chosen in the 2012 draft as expected, barring injury he should be a solid addition to any roster…even if he falls short of the lofty expectations and comparisons to past top RBs.

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Edited to include Cedric Benson (sorry for the miss!) and good feedback about Felix Jones and Moreno (missed window with the Cowboys/Broncos...maybe late bloomers ala Jones and Benson with a second team?)

 

[loqutis]

Great post

 

[jdswan922]

Cedric Benson was #4 overall in 2005 also...

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Is the jury REALLY still out on Felix? If so, I think the same could be said about Moreno.

 

[ZWK]

It's still too soon to tell on McFadden, but guys like Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson, and Reggie Bush who just have a couple RB2 seasons don't provide much fantasy value (unless you're in a league that starts a lot more than 24 RBs). Jamal Lewis and Tomlinson were great, but it would be disappointing if the 1.01 rookie pick turned into one of those [other four] guys.

Disappointments like that are pretty common - over 40% of first round RBs have under 50 career VBD (with the baseline at RB24). Here's 10 years worth of first round RBs, picking years that are long enough ago so that we can pretty much know how every RB turned out.

year rd pick player career vbd1997 1 12 Warrick Dunn 242 VBD1997 1 23 Antowain Smith 145 VBD1998 1 5 Curtis Enis 26 VBD1998 1 9 Fred Taylor 442 VBD1998 1 18 Robert Edwards 89 VBD1998 1 29 John Avery 0 VBD1999 1 4 Edgerrin James 731 VBD1999 1 5 Ricky Williams 445 VBD2000 1 5 Jamal Lewis 382 VBD2000 1 7 Thomas Jones 276 VBD2000 1 11 Ron Dayne 0 VBD2000 1 19 Shaun Alexander 743 VBD2000 1 31 Trung Canidate 0 VBD2001 1 5 LaDainian Tomlinson 1311 VBD2001 1 23 Deuce McAllister 292 VBD2001 1 27 Michael Bennett 48 VBD2002 1 16 William Green 0 VBD2002 1 18 T.J. Duckett 11 VBD2003 1 23 Willis McGahee 141 VBD2003 1 27 Larry Johnson 365 VBD2004 1 24 Steven Jackson 441 VBD2004 1 26 Chris Perry 0 VBD2004 1 30 Kevin Jones 18 VBD2005 1 2 Ronnie Brown 37 VBD2005 1 4 Cedric Benson 63 VBD2005 1 5 Cadillac Williams 19 VBD2006 1 2 Reggie Bush 48 VBD2006 1 21 Laurence Maroney 0 VBD2006 1 27 DeAngelo Williams 164 VBD2006 1 30 Joseph Addai 177 VBD
80% were ever a top 24 fantasy RB (90% for the first RB drafted in the class).

57% have at least 50 career VBD (60% for the first RB drafted).

50% have at least 100 career VBD (60% for the first RB drafted).

33% have at least 250 career VBD (40% for the first RB drafted).

10% have at least 500 career VBD (20% for the first RB drafted).

Average is 222 VBD (335 for the first RB drafted).

 

[EBF]

He's miles better than Ronnie ever was.

I expect him to be like Edgerrin James.

 

[FUBAR]

It's still too soon to tell on McFadden, but guys like Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson, and Reggie Bush who just have a couple RB2 seasons don't provide much fantasy value (unless you're in a league that starts a lot more than 24 RBs). Jamal Lewis and Tomlinson were great, but it would be disappointing if the 1.01 rookie pick turned into one of those guys.

-snip-

Otherwise a good post, but WTF?

 

[stbugs]

It's still too soon to tell on McFadden, but guys like Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson, and Reggie Bush who just have a couple RB2 seasons don't provide much fantasy value (unless you're in a league that starts a lot more than 24 RBs). Jamal Lewis and Tomlinson were great, but it would be disappointing if the 1.01 rookie pick turned into one of those guys.

-snip-

Otherwise a good post, but WTF?

I think by "those" he meant the former folks, not the latter. No one would be disappointed from an LT career in FF, no one. Not even my mom who knows zilch about FF.

 

[ZWK]

It's still too soon to tell on McFadden, but guys like Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson, and Reggie Bush who just have a couple RB2 seasons don't provide much fantasy value (unless you're in a league that starts a lot more than 24 RBs). Jamal Lewis and Tomlinson were great, but it would be disappointing if the 1.01 rookie pick turned into one of those guys.

-snip-

Otherwise a good post, but WTF?

I think by "those" he meant the former folks, not the latter. No one would be disappointed from an LT career in FF, no one. Not even my mom who knows zilch about FF.

This - I meant that it would be disappointing to get a Brown, Williams, Benson, or Bush with the 1.01. Edited slightly for clarity.

 

[eakfootball]

Edgerrin or Jamaal Lewis

 

[clwn_posse]

He's miles better than Ronnie ever was. I expect him to be like Edgerrin James.

Great comparison. Very high upside if he gets into a good situation. Too bad there is not an "other" choice to this poll.