How many first-round QBs will actually pan out? (1 Viewer)

[ignatiusjreilly]

One thing I've noticed in the draft coverage I've seen is that, while there may be disagreements over what order the Big Three -- or in some people's minds, the Big Four -- should go in, no one seriously seems to be pushing back against the idea that they'll all be successful. And yet, if you look at the historical record, the likelihood is that most of them will end up as either semi-decent starters or total busts. We're a long way from the '83 draft, where three HOF QBs were taken in the first round. Here are my subjective ratings of recent drafts:

• 2023: Obviously too early to make any definitive judgments, but Stroud looks like a hit, Young looks like a miss, and Richardson is still incomplete
• 2022: Pickett looks like a bust so far. Best QB in the draft was Mr. Irrelevant
• 2021: IIRC this was the first time QBs had ever gone 1-2-3, which is what most assume will happen this year. But it didn't work out very well. TLaw is the best, but he's coming off a disappointing year. The next two guys picked, Wilson and Lance, were busts (along with Jones). Fields has been the second best, but he's about to get traded.
• 2020: Best draft in awhile (although I don't recall a lot of people saying that at the time): Burrow is a stud, Herbert looks like he could be really good, even if he hasn't put it all together yet, and Tua at least looks like a solid starter
• 2019: Kyler's been OK, Jones is mediocre, Haskins was a bust
• 2018: Five taken in first round, two of whom have been hits (Allen and Lamar). Mayfield has been a decent starter and Darnold/Rosen were busts
• 2017: One mega-hit (Mahomes), one guy who looked to be on his way before his career got derailed (Watson), one bust (Trubisky)
• 2016: Goff has had his ups and downs but has generally been a decent starter when in the right situation, Wentz initially looked good and now seems like a bust, Paxton Lynch was a total bust. Dak (4th round) has probably been the biggest success

You get the idea. The biggest hits in recent years were drafted 2nd (Stroud), 1st (Burrow), 7th (Allen), 32nd (Lamar) and 10th (Mahomes). Of the guys taken first overall, I would put the record at one hit, one bust and four semi-decent starters.

Based on that, I think it's highly unlikely that Caleb, Maye and Daniels will all be stars, and far more likely that one or more of them will be busts

 

[5-ish Finkle]

It's probably far more likely that they'll ALL flame out than not,when youre only talking three guys.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

It's probably far more likely that they'll ALL flame out than not,when youre only talking three guys.

If we’re talking the entire first round, there’s a good chance McCarthy gets taken, too. But yeah, I’d say the odds we go 0-3 or 0-4 are higher than 3-0 or even 3-1

 

[Leroy Hoard]

It also doesn't help when you consider the crummy teams that draft some of these guys that go top 5.

 

[JohnnyU]

Better question for Superflex players

Hello Z Wilson, Lance, Trubisky, Rosen, Pickett, Russell, Leaf, Couch Harrington, A Smith, Mirer, Leinart, Quinn, Klingler, Marinovich, Akili Smith, Shuler, Ware, Druckenmiller, McNiwn, Stouffer, McGwire, Schlichter. Dare I go on? I know there even more recent blunders taken over better players at other positions.

 

[Mitchie]

it's the nature of the draft and the hype preceding, i think anyone who follows football knows a lot of these guys will bust but it takes away from the excitement to talk about that

 

[Chaos34]

It also doesn't help when you consider the crummy teams that draft some of these guys that go top 5.

That's the biggest problem. Stroud was very fortunate to be drafted by a bad team that made a prudent coaching change. I don't want to denigrate his talent. He and Ryans are the biggest reason for the turnaround and maybe Stroud would have been excellent anywhere.

The Bears played very solid ball late in the season. Good D. Decent OL. I think Caleb will take time, but has the potential to be a star. Bo Nix could be the Dak of this draft if he lands in the right spot. He's my sleeper QB.

 

[travdogg]

Seems like more than half the 1st round QBs became at least decent starters since 2016.

I wouldn't be shocked if like the 1983 class, the 2004 class ends up with 3 HOFers, in Eli, Rivers, Big Ben. Just seems like that should the reference point rather than having to go back over 40 years.

I thought 2020 looked like an excellent class at the time. Burrow was the best prospect of the last decade in my opinion, Tua would have probably been the #2 pick without the injury, and Herbert was also considered a top guy. Don't forget Jordan Love was a 1st rounder too, plus Jalen Hurts in round 2.

I certainly wouldn't call Wentz a bust. He was very good on his rookie deal, the bad didn't come until later. Had 7 seasons as a starter, where the majority of them were decent to great.

I'd be confident at least 2 QBs end up being really good in this class, with probably another 2 that end up being at least decent, and maybe guys like Pratt or Rattler become something too.

 

[JohnnyU]

Seems like more than half the 1st round QBs became at least decent starters since 2016.

I wouldn't be shocked if like the 1983 class, the 2004 class ends up with 3 HOFers, in Eli, Rivers, Big Ben. Just seems like that should the reference point rather than having to go back over 40 years.

I thought 2020 looked like an excellent class at the time. Burrow was the best prospect of the last decade in my opinion, Tua would have probably been the #2 pick without the injury, and Herbert was also considered a top guy. Don't forget Jordan Love was a 1st rounder too, plus Jalen Hurts in round 2.

I certainly wouldn't call Wentz a bust. He was very good on his rookie deal, the bad didn't come until later. Had 7 seasons as a starter, where the majority of them were decent to great.

I'd be confident at least 2 QBs end up being really good in this class, with probably another 2 that end up being at least decent, and maybe guys like Pratt or Rattler become something too.

Lol Wentz

 

[rockaction]

Not to be a poopy pants, but Anarchy99 posts a very similar thought with similar stats every so often if you read his posts carefully. There are going to be busts in the first round. There's no doubt about it.

 

[Anarchy99]

Not to be a poopy pants, but Anarchy99 posts this exact same thought with similar stats every so often if you read his posts carefully. There are going to be busts in the first round. There's no doubt about it.

There are a lot of reasons why guys don’t work out. Sure, the QB that was drafted might not be great, but usually the guys taken early go to bad teams with poor weapons or no blocking. The next issue is coaches and OC’s get swapped out a lot and the QB could be in a different system over and over again. Mac Jones, if he sticks with NE (which he won’t) would have his 4th OC in as many years. And many (most?) times a rookie is thrown into the lineup right away (when guys that sit for awhile have usually fared better).

 

[Crippler]

Does this not happen at every position. It is a high risk/hope high reward. If you are risk adverse, you just trade your picks for vets. I have yet to find the magic formula for success. I have seen teams burn it to the ground and hit many land mines. I have seen teams go all in and lose all resources and quickly deteriorate giving others high picks. The best teams seem to miss landmi es and draft well or make timely trades

Yes. Will this QB class be like 2003 or 2020 or be like 2018. But the same can go for RB/WR of TE. Lots of hits and misses there also, I love the 24 draft. I like to have more picks but draftfever picking up

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

You know how sometimes you can write an entire post, think it over for a couple more hours, and then finally figure out the point you were trying to make? That's what happened to me tonight. I think what I was really getting at is that every year, the pre-draft analysis consistently fails to grapple with the high bust rate of first-round QBs (and yes, as @Crippler points out, busts happen at every position, but we spend so much more time talking about the QBs).

If you've been reading/watching/listening to draft analysts, you'd think the decision between the Big Three this year is about which QB will be the best. But based on historical data, the choices faced by the Bears, Commanders and Pats is much starker than that. It's really about which QB will be the worst. At least one of those teams will probably draft a bust, and if they do, the chances are incredibly high that it will lead to the coach and/or GM getting fired within the next 2-3 years. But it feels like we never talk about it that way, especially not with respect to new regimes like in Washington or New England